英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 分析师：郑罡 执业证书编号：S0990511010001 电话：0755-83000291 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 2025 年 10 月 24 日 邮箱：zhenggang@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 蓝筹向好 缓解大盘回吐压力 国内银行结售汇差额再现峰值水平反映海外资金回流现象，A 股低估红利板 块持续回升带动股指收复跌势。市场交投平稳状态下大盘依然保持相对强势，得 益于配置高股息资产的中长期资金持股稳定性较强，增强 A 股发展韧性，减少异 常波动的负面影响。 在外部不确定性影响下，A 股高估值品种活跃行情或仍将受限，投资者或谨 慎评估贸易谈判的相关影响；反而受外部影响较少的 A 股蓝筹股有望受益国内经 济发展政策利多和海外资金回流带来估值上行预期，建议增加低估补涨蓝筹股配 置，降低高估无业绩支撑题材股持仓规模。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 研报内容 总量研究 【A 股大势研判】 一、周四市场综述 周四市场呈现先抑后扬的震荡走势，成交量变化不大，低估值蓝筹股反弹带动市场止跌回稳。隔夜美股出现调整 行情，而港股恒生科技指数也有连续 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower on October 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining above 3900 points and the Shenzhen Component regaining 13000 points in the afternoon. The market turnover fell to 1.66 trillion yuan, marking a new low in two and a half months [4]. Sector Performance - Energy, near-term new stocks, film and television, and quantum technology sectors saw significant gains, while cultivated diamonds, glass fiber, communication equipment, and engineering machinery sectors experienced declines. Quantum technology stocks surged in the last trading minutes, with Keda Guokuan (300520) hitting a 20% limit up [5]. Key Developments - On October 22, Google announced a new algorithm named "Quantum Echo" developed by its quantum computing research team, which can compute molecular structures 13,000 times faster than the best supercomputers [8]. - Major inflows of over 3.2 billion yuan were observed in non-ferrous metals, with coal, media, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials also receiving over 2 billion yuan each. However, the electronics sector saw a net outflow exceeding 6.7 billion yuan [8]. Future Outlook - According to Debon Securities, the reduced trading volume indicates cautious market sentiment, with financial and energy sectors providing support. The focus may shift to the "14th Five-Year Plan" policies, particularly in expanding domestic demand and consumer sectors [9]. - Huajin Securities anticipates that the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will strengthen the technology sector, benefiting industries such as electronics and robotics, as well as innovative pharmaceuticals and green energy sectors [9]. Company Earnings - Several new stocks reported strong growth in their Q3 earnings. Guangdong Jianke turned a profit in the first three quarters of 2025, while Aifenda reported a net profit of 96.41 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71% [11]. - Jianfa Zhixin expects a net profit of 200 to 222 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a growth of 30% to 40%, with Q3 results to be disclosed on October 28 [11].

10月23日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3922.41点，上涨0.22%；深证成指收报13025.45点，上涨0.22%；创业板指收报3062.16 点，上涨0.09%。两市合计成交16439.1亿元，较上一交易日减少239.47亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超250亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出217.92亿元，尾盘净流入35.86亿元，全天净流出257.81亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-10-23 | -257.81 | -217.92 | 35. 86 | -122. 72 | | 2025-10-22 | -314.90 | -156. 68 | -31. 77 | -142. 00 | | 2025-10-21 | 97. 81 | 5. 45 | 12. 45 | 158. 10 | | 2025-10-20 | -84. 46 | 51. 90 | -12. 11 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on October 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3922.41 points, up 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13025.45 points, also up 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index at 3062.16 points, up 0.09% [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 250 billion yuan, with a total net outflow of 257.81 billion yuan for the day [2][4] - In the last five trading days, the main funds showed a consistent trend of outflow, with the largest outflow recorded on October 17 at 799.18 billion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The CSI 300 index saw a net outflow of 58.03 billion yuan, while the ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 82.54 billion yuan [4] - Several sectors achieved net inflows, including: - Public Utilities: 27.23 billion yuan, with a rise of 0.67% - Non-bank Financials: 25.65 billion yuan, with a rise of 1.10% - Banks: 19.85 billion yuan, with a rise of 0.48% - Coal: 11.38 billion yuan, with a rise of 3.55% - Transportation: 8.51 billion yuan, with a rise of 0.67% [6] Institutional Activity - The institutional buying and selling activity highlighted significant net purchases in stocks such as: - Beifang Co., with a net purchase of 101.48 million yuan despite a decline of 4.62% - Xingfu Jianhai, which rose by 20.00% with a net purchase of 74.15 million yuan [9] - The latest focus of institutions included stocks like: - Taotao Automotive, rated "Buy" with a target price of 270.27 yuan, currently at 232.53 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16.23% [11]

Core Insights - The A-share market in the first half of 2025 exhibited a volatile pattern influenced by policy and fundamentals, while the public fund industry presented a noteworthy semi-annual performance report [2] - The top ten fund managers by management scale are predominantly leaders of index products, with Liu Jun from Huatai-PB Fund leading at a scale of 4120.1 billion yuan, which increased to 4669.8 billion yuan by the end of September [2][4] - Zhang Wei from Huitianfu Fund emerged as a standout performer, with his managed fund achieving an impressive 86.48% return, significantly outperforming the market, and a year-to-date return of 159% [2][24] Group 1: Fund Management Scale - The competition for management scale in the public fund industry has shifted, with the managers of the CSI 300 ETF holding a dominant position [3] - The top fund managers by management scale include Liu Jun (4120.09 billion yuan), Yu Haiyan (3219.50 billion yuan), and Pang Yaping (2568.34 billion yuan) [4] - The CSI 300 ETF reached a scale of over 1000 billion yuan in August 2023, surpassed 3000 billion yuan in September 2024, and exceeded 4000 billion yuan shortly thereafter [8] Group 2: Performance of Fund Managers - Zhang Wei from Huitianfu Fund achieved a remarkable 47.93% return in the first half of 2025, followed by Zhang Lu from Yongying Fund with 33.88% and Tian Ximeng from Fuquo Fund with 25.18% [16][17] - The average return of the top fund managers over the past three months was 29.5%, with the highest being Du Meng from Morgan Fund at 62.4% [18] - The performance of the CSI 300 index has been consistent, with major index funds showing similar returns, reflecting the nature of index funds to track their benchmark closely [10] Group 3: Sector Insights - The CSI 300 index serves as a key indicator of the overall performance of the A-share market, encompassing the largest and most liquid 300 stocks, representing major industries in the Chinese economy [11] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 index include Kweichow Moutai, Ningde Times, and China Ping An, collectively accounting for over 20% of the index [12] - High-dividend sectors such as banking and non-bank financials are significant contributors to the index, with the potential for increased dividend yields [13] Group 4: Notable Fund Strategies - Zhang Wei's success is attributed to the strong rebound in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, with his fund's performance benefiting from this trend [24][28] - Zhang Lu's rapid rise in performance was linked to a strategic shift towards humanoid robotics, which capitalized on market trends [43][49] - The overall trend indicates that deep research and strategic positioning are crucial for achieving excess returns in a structural market [51]

Core Insights - The A-share market in the first half of 2025 is experiencing a volatile pattern influenced by policy and fundamentals, with public fund managers showing significant performance [3][4] - The top fund managers are predominantly managing index funds, with a notable increase in the scale of the HuShen 300 ETF [5][6] Group 1: Fund Management Performance - As of July 1, 2025, the top ten fund managers by management scale are all index fund managers, with Liu Jun from Huatai Baichuan Fund leading at 4120.1 billion yuan [3][6] - Zhang Wei from Huitianfu Fund emerged as a standout performer, with his fund achieving an 86.48% return, significantly outperforming the market [4][21] - The HuShen 300 ETF has seen substantial growth, with its scale surpassing 4000 billion yuan, although it faced a slight decline in late June [7][10] Group 2: Index Fund Dynamics - The HuShen 300 ETF, managed by Liu Jun, has a scale of 3738.6 billion yuan and a one-year performance increase of 46.4% [7][10] - The performance of major index funds is consistent, with returns around 46% to 47% over the past year, reflecting the nature of index funds to track their benchmark closely [14][15] - The top ten weighted stocks in the HuShen 300 index include major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Ningde Times, which collectively account for over 20% of the index [16][17] Group 3: Emerging Fund Managers - New-generation fund managers are showing impressive results, with Zhang Wei achieving a 47.9% return in the first half of 2025 [21][22] - Zhang Lu from Yongying Fund also performed well, with a return of 33.88%, indicating a trend of strong performance among emerging managers [21][22] - The recent performance of these managers suggests a shift in the competitive landscape of fund management, with a focus on sectors like pharmaceuticals and advanced manufacturing [29][36] Group 4: Sector Trends and Opportunities - The pharmaceutical sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with significant returns driven by the rebound in innovative drug stocks [27][29] - The focus on high-dividend strategies and industry leaders within the HuShen 300 index is expected to drive future growth in ETF scales [17][18] - The performance of funds in the manufacturing sector, particularly those focusing on humanoid robots, has shown remarkable returns, indicating a potential trend for future investments [46][50]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22% on October 23, with 21 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by coal and oil & petrochemicals, which increased by 1.75% and 1.53% respectively [1] - The non-bank financial sector saw an increase of 0.96%, with a net inflow of 1.42 billion yuan in main funds [2] - The electronic sector faced the largest net outflow of main funds, totaling 5.435 billion yuan, followed by the machinery equipment sector with a net outflow of 4.999 billion yuan [1] Industry Summary - The coal industry had the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 1.465 billion yuan, contributing to its 1.75% increase [1] - The media industry also saw a positive performance with a 0.90% increase and a net inflow of 362 million yuan [1] - The non-bank financial sector had 82 stocks, with 76 rising and 6 falling; the top net inflow stocks included Dongfang Caifu with 324 million yuan and CITIC Securities with 187 million yuan [2] - The sectors with the largest net outflows included pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, and electric equipment, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1]

Group 1 - A total of 401 companies have disclosed their Q3 reports as of October 23, with 5,033 companies yet to report, and over 4,300 companies are expected to disclose next week [1][4][5] - Among the disclosed companies, 338 reported profits while 63 incurred losses, with 250 companies showing profit growth and 151 experiencing declines [2][3] - Notably, 57 companies achieved a net profit growth rate exceeding 100%, representing 14.2% of the total 401 companies [3] Group 2 - New Strong Union leads with a staggering net profit growth of 1,939.5%, and its stock price has risen over 22% in October [2] - Four companies reported net profit growth between 500% and 1,000%, with Wanchen Group at 917.04% [3] - Key sectors to watch include non-bank financials, AI industry chain, and lithium battery sectors, as they are expected to show structural highlights [7]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 10 月 23 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251023 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.22%，收报 3922.41 点；深证成指涨 0.22%，收报 13025.45 点；科创 50 跌 0.30%，收报 1401.26 点；创业板指涨 0.09%，收报 3062.16 点。总体上，全天个股涨跌参 半，Wind 数据显示，全市场 2991 只个股上涨，2301 只个股下跌，143 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 16439 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 239.47 亿元。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为冰雪旅游、锂矿、央企煤炭、近端 次新股、短剧游戏、盐湖提锂、量子技术、化学纤维精选、网络安全、操作 系统、两岸融合、煤炭开采精选、Kimi、铝产业、锂电电解液板块。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 | 一、市场回顾 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.66% today, with a trading volume of 764.17 million shares and a total transaction value of 1,058 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.00% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The coal industry showed the highest increase, with a rise of 1.55%, followed by the oil and petrochemical sector at 1.13%, and public utilities at 0.58% [1]. - The telecommunications sector experienced the largest decline at 2.49%, followed by electronics at 2.14%, and building materials at 1.86% [2]. Leading Stocks - In the coal sector, Shaanxi Black Cat led with a gain of 10.12% [1]. - Hengli Petrochemical in the oil and petrochemical sector increased by 4.63% [1]. - Shenzhen Energy in public utilities rose by 9.96% [1]. - In the telecommunications sector, Changfei Fiber fell by 8.08% [2]. - Weier High in electronics dropped by 13.31% [2]. Trading Volume by Industry - The coal industry had a trading volume of 162.16 billion yuan, an increase of 61.42% from the previous day [1]. - The oil and petrochemical sector recorded a trading volume of 133.84 billion yuan, up by 7.85% [1]. - The telecommunications sector had a trading volume of 573.57 billion yuan, down by 20.59% [2].