分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 09 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -1% 5% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | 上证指数 | | 3,924.08 | | 0.54 | | 深证成指 | | 13,329.99 | | 1.39 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,621.75 | | 0.81 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,49 ...

Group 1 - The New York stock market indices showed mixed performance on December 8, with all three major indices closing lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 215.67 points to 47,739.32, a decrease of 0.45%. The S&P 500 index dropped by 23.89 points to 6,846.51, down 0.35%. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 32.22 points to 23,545.90, a decline of 0.14% [1] - Among the sectors in the S&P 500, ten out of eleven sectors declined, with the communication services and materials sectors leading the losses at 1.77% and 1.66%, respectively. The technology sector was the only one to gain, increasing by 0.93% [1] Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose sharply to 4.19% before retreating, impacting market sentiment negatively. A report from Bank of America Global Research predicts that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting, with a hawkish outlook on future monetary policy [2] - The chief investment officer of Integrated Partners, Stephen Kolano, indicated that the market has been reflecting a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. If the Fed does not cut rates, the stock market could see a decline of 2% to 3% [2] - Kolano also mentioned that if expectations for a rate cut are pushed further back, the market may face negative pressure in the first half of next year [3] Group 3 - Netflix's stock fell by 3.44% following its announcement of an agreement with Warner Bros. Discovery, while Paramount Skydance Corporation launched a hostile takeover bid valued at $108 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery's assets, resulting in a 4.41% increase in Warner Bros. Discovery's stock and a 9.02% rise in Paramount Skydance's stock [3] - Berkshire Hathaway experienced a 1.41% decline in its stock price amid changes in its executive team, indicating that Warren Buffett is preparing for retirement [3]

2025 年 12 月 09 日 开源晨会 1209 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 4.794 | | 综合 | 3.031 | | 电子 | 2.600 | | 非银金融 | 1.904 | | 计算机 | 1.492 | 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | -1.433 | | 石油石化 | -0.839 | | 食品饮料 | -0.775 | | 公用事业 | -0.421 | | 钢铁 | -0.271 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】推动基础设施 REITs 扩围——宏观周报-20251207 行业公司 【中小盘】商业航天催化不断，可复用火箭迎来大发展——中小盘 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]

Strategy - The technology competition under the Kondratiev wave continues to open up valuation ceilings, with a focus on "bottleneck" and future industry high ground [14][15] - The current valuation of China's science and technology innovation is still lower than that during the internet boom in the 1990s, indicating potential for further upward movement [14][18] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes seizing the high ground of technological development, focusing on key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced manufacturing [14][19] Electronics - The scaling law remains effective, with the introduction of multi-modal and agent models expected to accelerate AI computing demand [8][15] - The PCB industry is anticipated to maintain high growth due to its heavy asset nature and product structure optimization, which can lead to non-linear performance improvements for companies [8][15] Computer - New models are being launched intensively, marking a shift in AI competition towards "strong reasoning + native multi-modal" capabilities [9][15] - Significant releases include Google's Gemini 3 and DeepSeek V3.2, which enhance multi-modal understanding and practical applications [9][15] Media - Long-term optimism for the acceleration of AI product applications and commercialization, with a focus on AI agents, companionship, multi-modal applications, education, and edge AI [9][15] Humanoid Robots - The industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies that have growth potential in key components or specific solutions likely to benefit [10][15] - Investment opportunities are identified in the incremental component sector, with a focus on aesthetic preferences in the market [10][15] Automotive - The launch of Horizon Robotics' HSD and J6P models marks a significant step in mass production, with companies like WeRide and Pony.ai also making strides in the market [10][15] - Recommendations include focusing on luxury car opportunities with strong product pipelines and valuation elasticity, as well as autonomous driving technologies [10][15] Selected Portfolio - The December selected portfolio includes upstream production tools like Zhuoyi Information, upstream computing infrastructure such as Jingwang Electronics, and downstream applications like Alibaba [11][15]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on December 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3924.08 points, up 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13329.99 points, up 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index at 3190.27 points, up 2.6% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 20,517.44 billion yuan, an increase of 3,126.79 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds in the A-share market was 7.34 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 79.7 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 8.67 billion yuan [2] - The net inflow of main funds in the CSI 300 was 10.55 billion yuan, while the ChiNext saw a net inflow of 7.4 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board experienced a net outflow of 9.19 billion yuan [4] Sector Performance - Among the primary industries, the electronics sector led with a net inflow of 189.28 billion yuan, followed by the communication sector with 76.25 billion yuan, and the electric equipment sector with 30.60 billion yuan [6][7] - The top five industries with net inflows included electronics, communication, electric equipment, computer, and media, while the top five industries with net outflows included biopharmaceuticals, food and beverage, public utilities, and basic chemicals [7] Institutional Activity - The institutional buying activity was notable in several stocks, with Snowman Group (002639) showing a net institutional purchase of 181.63 million yuan, followed by Ruikang Pharmaceutical and Changguang Photonics [9][10] - Conversely, Guangdong Hongda (002683) was among the stocks with significant institutional selling [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][40]. Core Views - The media sector is anticipated to experience a rebound, particularly in gaming and AI applications, with significant growth potential in these areas. The report emphasizes the importance of both sharpness and allocation in the current market environment [3][6]. - The gaming market is highlighted as entering a favorable valuation zone, with specific companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong recommended for investment [6][16]. - The film market is recovering, with the total box office reaching approximately 437.06 billion yuan, which is about 78% of the 2019 level, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [19][20]. Market Performance Review - The media sector index fell by 3.86% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.28%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 5.14% [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of the media sector is approximately 19,595.28 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 17,850.96 billion yuan [3]. Gaming Market Insights - Tencent's products dominate the iOS gaming market, with titles like "Peace Elite" and "Love and Deep Space" performing strongly [16]. - Upcoming game releases include "Rust" and "PUBG: BLACK BUDGET," which are expected to generate significant interest [18]. Film Market Overview - The film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a box office of nearly 23 billion yuan within six days, with projections suggesting it could help the total annual box office exceed 500 billion yuan [27]. - The total box office for the year has reached 437.06 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 78% compared to 2019 [19][22]. Important News and Company Announcements - The establishment of the first micro-short drama export base in Shanghai marks a significant development in the media industry [27]. - Tencent's Magic Cube Studio celebrated its 15th anniversary, announcing major updates for several IP titles, indicating ongoing innovation in the gaming sector [28].

Policy Trends - Some leading brokerages are expected to benefit from the appropriate easing of capital space and leverage restrictions, which may strengthen the brokerage sector and further boost market sentiment [5][4] - The insurance sector is rebounding due to the adjustment of related business risk factors, with the non-bank sector likely to lead the market sentiment recovery during the year-end period [5][4] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has announced adjustments to the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments and overseas investment insurance, aiming to enhance long-term investment management capabilities [4][5] Overseas Macro - The U.S. job market is currently in a state of mild slowdown, with the ADP employment figure for November dropping significantly to -32,000, far below the expected 10,000 [6] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is approximately 87%, as high interest rates are suppressing employment in interest-sensitive sectors [6] Bond Market - After a rapid rise in long-term yields, the 30-10Y government bond yield spread has gradually returned to a historically reasonable range, indicating initial signs of value for allocation after a significant drop [7][15] - The central bank has continued to net withdraw funds, with a total net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan through reverse repos during the first week of December [7][9] Equity Market - The market style continues to favor resource products and AI, with non-bank sectors gaining momentum, particularly in commercial aerospace and robotics, which have strengthened the military and machinery sectors [16][21] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.26% and 1.86%, respectively [16] Investment Strategy - The company is optimistic about technology, brokerages, and consumer sectors as the market approaches the year-end offensive [2][22] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to lead to more proactive economic policies, with a focus on stabilizing the short-term macro economy and further easing monetary policy [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The Hunan state-owned enterprise reform sector experienced a decline of 0.35% on December 8, with Huibo Pu leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3924.08, reflecting an increase of 0.54% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, showing a rise of 1.39% [1] - The Hunan state-owned enterprise reform sector saw a mixed performance among individual stocks, with notable gainers and losers [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - The top gainers included: - Bubugao (002251) with a closing price of 5.20, up by 2.97% and a trading volume of 1.0987 million shares, totaling 565 million yuan [1] - Dianguang Media (000917) at 8.86, up by 1.84% with a trading volume of 629,500 shares, totaling 563 million yuan [1] - Tianqiao Hoisting (002523) at 4.29, up by 1.66% with a trading volume of 514,300 shares, totaling 220 million yuan [1] - The top decliners included: - Huibo Yin (002554) at 3.35, down by 4.01% with a trading volume of 526,200 shares, totaling 176 million yuan [2] - Nanxin Pharmaceutical (688189) at 8.82, down by 2.54% with a trading volume of 103,000 shares, totaling 91.69 million yuan [2] - Hunan Development (000722) at 12.02, down by 1.96% with a trading volume of 142,400 shares, totaling 172 million yuan [2] Group 3: Capital Flow - The Hunan state-owned enterprise reform sector experienced a net outflow of 246 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 292 million yuan [2] - The individual stock capital flow showed varied trends, with some stocks attracting significant retail interest despite overall sector outflows [3]

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 decreased from 1.5222% to 1.4963%, a reduction of 2.59 basis points, while DR007 fell from 1.4668% to 1.4380%, down 2.88 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 increased by 0.29 basis points [9][11] - The net outflow of funds this week was 22.775 billion yuan, with net inflow increasing by 16.769 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 27.093 billion yuan, while demand was 49.867 billion yuan [11][12] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing the strongest performance, gaining 5.07%. Communication and defense industries also saw slight increases. The media and real estate sectors led the declines, falling by 3.59% and 2.13% respectively [16][18] - The defense industry had the highest overall congestion score as of the last trading day of the week [29] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most style indices increased, with cyclical and growth styles leading, rising by 2.17% and 0.66% respectively. The consumer style declined by 0.66% [31] - The average daily trading volume for the growth style was the highest at 57.39%, while its turnover rate was also the highest at 2.73% [31]