2月4日，市场探底回升，沪指重返4100点，深成指翻红，此前一度跌超1%，创业板指午后跌幅收窄。截至收盘，沪指涨0.85%，深成指涨0.21%， 创业板指跌0.4%。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超 3200只个股上涨。从板块来看，煤炭概念掀起涨停潮 ，十余只成分股涨停，陕西黑猫、兖矿能源、中煤能源涨 停。太空光伏概念爆发，中来股份20cm涨停，国晟科技2连板。机场航运概念走强，中国东航、华夏航空涨停。 下跌方面， AI应用、贵金属、算力硬件等板块跌幅居前。 其中AI应用概念集体下挫，引力传媒、天地在线跌停，值得买、世纪恒通等多股大跌。 沪深两市成交额 2.48万亿，较上一个交易日缩量633亿。个股方面，中际旭创成交额超290亿元居首，新易盛成交额237亿元，宁德时代、航天发展、 贵州茅台、信维通信、蓝色光标等成交额靠前。 2 月 4 日， A 股市场呈现分化走势，上证指数上涨 0.85% ，报 4102.2 点；深证成指上涨 0.21% ，创业板指下跌 0.40% 。 主力资金流入前五的板块中，电力设备板块获得显著增持， 主力净流入资金超 200 亿元。 煤炭板块 上涨 7.58% 表现突出 ， 获主力 ...

Group 1 - The large selling pressure from major funds has been alleviated, leading to a market recovery in February [3] - The A-share market continues its recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 4100 points and showing upward momentum [3] - The significant reduction in selling pressure is attributed to national-level measures addressing the selling from reduced holdings, indicating a potential end to large-scale sell-offs [3] Group 2 - The trading volume of the CSI 300 ETF has dropped to around 2%, suggesting that major funds are no longer selling [3] - The sustained low turnover rate of the CSI 300 ETF reflects a stable and sustainable market condition [3] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday and the National People's Congress are expected to limit the likelihood of new large-scale sell-offs [3]

印尼矿商暂停煤炭出口，煤价上行预期明 显加强 ——煤炭行业动态跟踪报告 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：2026 年国内煤炭供需基本稳定，海外扰动可能成为驱动煤价变化的主要因 素，目前印尼方面已出现明显扰动，煤价具有上涨可能。且从长期角度，全球煤炭贸易 成本将逐步抬升，对国内煤价将形成支撑。优质煤企此前的估值仅反映出"类债"价 值，随着煤价上涨可能性的提高，将逐步向"类债"+"煤价看涨期权"演变，这部分"看涨期 权"价值目前市场反应还较为有限，推荐中国神华(601088，增持)、中煤能源(601898， 增持)、陕西煤业(601225，增持)、晋控煤业(601001，增持)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 行业名称 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with coal and space photovoltaic concepts showing significant activity. However, the rebound in coal stocks is primarily a result of overselling, while the space photovoltaic sector may have more sustainable growth due to ongoing positive developments and performance reversals [1][2][10]. Group 1: Coal Sector Analysis - The coal sector saw a notable increase, with indices such as the central enterprise coal index rising by 6.23% and the coal mining selection index by 5.93% [3][11]. - Despite the surge, 19 out of 27 companies in the coal industry have projected a decline in performance for 2025, indicating a lack of fundamental support for the rebound [2][11]. - The operational strategy for coal stocks should be closely monitored, particularly in relation to the performance forecasts for the first quarter of 2026 [2][11]. Group 2: Space Photovoltaic Sector Analysis - The space photovoltaic sector is showing stronger fundamentals, with nearly 50% of companies in the photovoltaic equipment industry expected to achieve performance growth by 2025, a significant increase compared to previous years [2][12]. - Notable stocks in the space photovoltaic sector include Zhonglai Co. and Zerun New Energy, which have reached "20CM" and "10CM" daily limits, respectively, indicating strong market interest [2][12]. - The space photovoltaic index has also shown a year-to-date increase of 31.04%, reflecting robust investor sentiment [3][12]. Group 3: Technological Developments in Space Photovoltaics - Space photovoltaic cells are categorized into three main types: gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite cells, each with distinct advantages and challenges [5][15]. - The efficiency of gallium arsenide cells is high but comes with a high cost, while perovskite cells offer flexibility and low theoretical costs but face stability issues [5][15]. - Crystalline silicon cells, although less efficient, are currently the most cost-effective option and are gradually replacing gallium arsenide in low-cost satellite applications [5][15]. Group 4: Company Developments and Performance Forecasts - Companies like Canadian Solar (阿特斯) are actively developing technologies related to space photovoltaics, including HJT technology and perovskite/HJT tandem cells, achieving significant advancements in efficiency [16][17]. - The company has reported a research and development efficiency exceeding 27.6% and a mass production efficiency of over 27.30%, positioning it at the forefront of the industry [16][17]. - Five companies are projected to see their performance double by 2025, with the fastest growth expected from Dingjide (鼎际得), forecasting a net profit increase of 171.15% to 206.73% [8][20].

Group 1: Stock Market Activity - On the day, 42 stocks were listed on the institutional trading leaderboard, with 16 stocks seeing net purchases and 18 stocks experiencing net sales [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net purchases by institutions were: Jing Sheng Mechanical & Electrical (220 million), China International Marine Containers (110 million), and JinkoSolar (104 million) [1][2] Group 2: Coal Industry Insights - Hengyuan Coal Power is expected to report a net profit of approximately 2.53 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of about 82.41%, primarily due to rising coal prices [2] - The coal market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with coking coal futures rising by 3.6% on the day [2] Group 3: Indonesian Coal Production - Indonesian mining officials announced a significant reduction plan for coal production, with quotas lowered by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, aimed at boosting coal prices [3] - The expected coal production for 2024 is estimated at 710 million tons, while 2025 is projected at 735 million tons, both figures being lower than actual production in previous years [3] - If the Indonesian government reduces coal production from 817 million tons to 600 million tons, the reduction would be approximately 36.2% [3] Group 4: Hydrogen Energy Sector - Huadian Technology established a hydrogen energy division in 2020, focusing on integrated services for hydrogen production and equipment manufacturing [4] - Shenghui Technology's subsidiary has developed fuel cell engines that meet national mandatory standards, suitable for hydrogen fuel vehicles [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to leverage the new national system to promote breakthroughs in hydrogen energy and other fields [4] Group 5: Future of Hydrogen Energy - Tianfeng Securities predicts that the hydrogen energy sector will see significant growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with renewable energy hydrogen production capacity expected to exceed 250,000 tons per year by the end of 2025 [5] - The demand for hydrogen is anticipated to reach approximately 60 million tons by 2050, with an economic output exceeding 10 trillion yuan and over 10,000 hydrogen refueling stations established [5] - The hydrogen industry value chain includes upstream hydrogen production, midstream storage and transportation, and downstream applications in transportation, industrial fuel, and power generation [5]

格隆汇2月4日｜据市场消息，印度尼西亚最大的几家煤炭企业获准免受印尼政府生产配额削减政策的影 响，减产负担主要由规模较小的煤矿承担。布米资源公司（PT Bumi Resources）、PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia 和印迪卡能源公司（PT Indika Energy）均获得了今年所申请的全部煤炭开采配额，总计约1.7 亿吨。作为全球最大的电厂煤炭出口国，印尼计划今年将煤炭产量削减近四分之一至约6亿吨，以提振 煤价。印尼煤炭矿业协会上周表示，各矿企的减产幅度将达到40%至70%，并警告此举或导致部分煤矿 经营难以为继，可能引发大规模裁员和贷款违约。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant reduction in coal production quotas by the Indonesian government, which aims to boost coal prices by decreasing export volumes by 40% to 70% for major miners by 2025 [5] - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to impose an export surcharge, which may further weaken the profitability of the coal industry [5] Group 2 - The article lists several companies involved in coal mining, coal chemical, and coal-electricity integration, including China Shenhua, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8][9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.05% at 26,847.32 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.84% to 5,366.44 points [1]. Sector Performance - Coal stocks led the gains, with Yanzhou Coal Mining rising over 10% and China Shenhua Energy increasing by over 5% [1]. - Chip stocks showed weak performance, with Shanghai Fudan down over 5% and Huahong Semiconductor declining nearly 5% [1]. - The technology sector overall performed poorly, with Tencent Holdings down nearly 4% and Bilibili falling over 3% [1]. - Domestic property stocks collectively rose, with Shimao Group increasing over 14% and Sunac China rising over 8% [1]. Individual Stock Movements - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, Xinyi Glass, China Shenhua, and China Resources Land had the highest gains [1]. - Conversely, Ctrip Group, Tencent Holdings, and NetEase saw the largest declines [1]. - In the Hang Seng Tech Index, Li Auto, Leapmotor, and Haier Smart Home showed the most significant increases [1]. - On the downside, Kingdee International, Ctrip Group, and Tongcheng Travel experienced the largest drops [1].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 （1）政策演进分为三个阶段，2023 年初-2024 年 6 月，中央点明相关风险， 2024 年 7 月-2025 年 6 月中央首次提出防范"内卷式"恶性竞争，部分行业 开展自律探索但缺乏协同与刚性约束，2025 年 7 月至今为系统化实施期。 （2）核心定位方面，反内卷核心是破解地方保护主义与市场分割导致的资 源错配，与统一大市场形成双向支撑，前者为后者扫清不当竞争障碍，后者 为前者提供制度框架，共同服务于高质量发展。 实施特征看： （1）实施特征方面，呈现部委协同治理、行业自律为基、产能价格双控、 甄别标准多元四大特点。 （2）行业治理模式方面，煤炭、钢铁等传统上游行业以行政干预为主，多 晶硅、光伏等新兴及下游领域以行业自律为主，部分领域采用行政与自律结 合的模式。 （3）典型案例方面，光伏产业作为新兴产业内卷代表，经历"自律失败-政 策加力-实质推进"历程，2025 年政策加码后通过多重举措规范竞争，但下 游并网增速下滑、终端需求疲软导致硅料等环节提价压力难以传导，制约政 策效果。 宏观经济深度报告 反内卷系列一：将"反内卷"进行到底 反内卷政策是决策层针对 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 宏观经济深度报告 反内卷系列一：将"反内卷"进行到底 反内卷政策是决策层针对产能过剩、无序竞争问题认知深化的产物，是全国 统一大市场建设从顶层设计向实践落地的重要环节。 政策演进看： （1）政策演进分为三个阶段，2023 年初-2024 年 6 月，中央点明相关风险， 2024 年 7 月-2025 年 6 月中央首次提出防范"内卷式"恶性竞争，部分行业 开展自律探索但缺乏协同与刚性约束，2025 年 7 月至今为系统化实施期。 （2）核心定位方面，反内卷核心是破解地方保护主义与市场分割导致的资 源错配，与统一大市场形成双向支撑，前者为后者扫清不当竞争障碍，后者 为前者提供制度框架，共同服务于高质量发展。 实施特征看： （1）实施特征方面，呈现部委协同治理、行业自律为基、产能价格双控、 甄别标准多元四大特点。 （2）行业治理模式方面，煤炭、钢铁等传统上游行业以行政干预为主，多 晶硅、光伏等新兴及下游领域以行业自律为主，部分领域采用行政与自律结 合的模式。 （3）典型案例方面，光伏产业作为新兴产业内卷代表，经历"自律失败-政 策加力-实质推进"历程，2025 年政策加码 ...