Core Insights - The Cuban government has announced an annual investment plan totaling 1.74 trillion pesos to address urgent economic and social development needs [1] Group 1: Investment Allocation - 67% of the funds will be focused on three priority areas: food production, industrial revitalization, and the reconstruction of the electricity system [1] - 95% of the investment will be directed towards ongoing projects aimed at enhancing the self-sufficiency of strategic industries [1] Group 2: Strategic Projects - The plan includes modernization of the Antillana steel plant in collaboration with Russia, expansion of cement production capacity, and various agricultural, forestry, tobacco, and livestock projects [1] - New photovoltaic power plants and maintenance of thermal power plants are also part of the investment strategy [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Social Welfare - The investment will cover housing, water management, tourism, and other infrastructure and social welfare areas, with plans to construct over 9,000 state-owned housing units and renovate 38 tourism hotels [1] - Upgrades to the national water supply system and support for the production of essential medicines and biotechnology research are also included [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of production, demand, CPI, and PPI. It points out that there are seasonal fluctuations in production, low - base effects affect the real - estate market, and there are price changes in various commodities due to multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical events [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption shows a seasonal decline. On February 3, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 81.4 million tons, a 5.7% decrease from January 27. On January 30, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 222.0 million tons, a 7.5% decrease from January 22. With the approaching of the Spring Festival and rising temperatures, power plant daily consumption may further decline [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level. On January 30, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.0%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 23, while the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 89.8% on January 30, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from January 23. Due to the Spring Festival, demand is almost stagnant, but steel mills' production remains relatively high, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [16]. - The tire operating rate remains stable. On January 29, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 74.8%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from January 22. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has a seasonal decline. On January 29, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.2%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 22, and the operating rate of downstream looms was 42.4%, an 8.8 - percentage - point decrease from January 22 [18]. 3.1.2 Demand: Low - base Supports the Real - estate Market's Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month Increase - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has a passive increase due to the low - base effect. From February 1 - 3, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 18.7 million square meters, an 181.0% increase from the same period in January, a 1615.3% increase from the same period in February last year, a 32.1% decrease from the same period in February 2024, and a 42.6% decrease from the same period in February 2023. Sales areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities increased by 4474.6%, 1028.3%, and 2830.0% year - on - year respectively [23]. - The auto market is weakening. In January, retail sales decreased by 28% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 35% year - on - year. The change in the auto trade - in policy has affected consumers' purchasing willingness [27]. - Steel prices are fluctuating weakly. On February 3, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, increased by 1.1%, decreased by 0.6%, and decreased by 0.3% respectively compared with January 27. Steel inventory is accumulating more slowly than in previous years [33]. - Cement prices are hitting new lows. On February 3, the national cement price index decreased by 0.8% compared with January 27. Cement demand is weak in different regions due to weather and other factors, but the year - on - year decline in prices is narrowing [34]. - Glass prices remain stable. On February 3, the active glass futures contract price was 1073 yuan/ton, the same as on January 27. The month - on - month decline in glass prices has occurred, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing [39]. - The decline in container shipping freight rate indices has further expanded. On January 30, the CCFI index decreased by 2.7% compared with January 23, and the SCFI index decreased by 9.7%. Due to the long holiday in Asian countries during the Spring Festival and reduced expected shipments before the Spring Festival, there is an oversupply of shipping capacity in the short - term, and freight rates are under pressure [42]. 3.2 Inflation: Intensified Fluctuations in Industrial Product Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Turn Downward - Pork prices turn downward. On February 3, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, a 0.5% decrease from January 27. Although it is the pre - festival stocking peak, the short - term support from consumption is limited, and the supply pressure is still large [49]. - The agricultural product price index is fluctuating. On February 3, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with January 27. Different agricultural products have different price trends. Since February, the agricultural product wholesale price index has increased year - on - year and month - on - month [53]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise and Then Fall - Oil prices rise and then fall. On February 3, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.9 and 63.2 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 0.5% and 1.3% increase from January 27. Geopolitical factors have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, and short - term volatility will continue [57]. - Copper prices rise while aluminum prices fall. On February 3, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 2.5% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with January 27. The domestic commodity index has a month - on - month decline [64]. - Industrial product prices have different month - on - month trends. Since February, the prices of wire rod, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial products have decreased, with rebar and cement having relatively large declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices is narrowing [68].

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月04日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 器联 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面小幅反弹。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下降，压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shougang Co., Ltd. emphasizes its commitment to operating in compliance with environmental and tax regulations, conducting regular self-assessments to ensure legality and compliance in all aspects of its business operations [2] Group 1 - The company responds to investor inquiries on an interactive platform, reinforcing its adherence to environmental and tax laws [2] - Regular tax self-assessments are conducted by the company to maintain compliance [2]

来源：无冕财经 //// 在给员工发钱这件事上，国内的"霸总"们已经卷起来了。 前有河南矿山老板崔培军，数千万现金摆满几十米长桌，员工数多少拿多少（详见最华人此前推送→最喜欢"撒钱"的老板，为什么都在河南？）； 后有辽宁方大集团老板方威，上亿现金堆成墙，一捆捆百元大钞全部发给公司员工。 ▲辽宁方大集团"现金墙" 据统计，近十年来，辽宁方大集团已累计给员工发放现金红包近40亿元，"现金墙"几乎成了公司每年的传统。 而坚持给员工"撒钱"的方威，财富不减反增，从2024年的405亿元，涨到了2025年的525亿元，在东北三省企业家中排名第一。 这位豪爽的东北汉子，坚信财散人聚。他的这座"现金墙"，堪称凝聚人心的强大法宝—— 当几亿现金毫无修饰地堆在你面前时，任何复杂的企业文化和精美的宣传PPT，都显得是那样得苍白无力。 他不画大饼、不PUA，只用一把把真金白银告诉员工："跟着我，有肉吃。" 给员工"发汽车" 2021年，辽宁方大集团斥巨资410亿元，接手了破产重整的海航航空，方威由此成为海航的实际控制人。 他用不到3个月的时间，还清了所有员工的欠薪，并给6万多名员工每人发了5000块红包，总计3亿多元。 员工士气大 ...

2026年2月4日上午，上海市政协十四届四次会议举行专题会议，在"着力深化'五个中心'建设，全面提 升城市核心功能，奋力推动高质量发展取得新突破"专题会议上，市政协常委，中国宝武钢铁集团有限 公司党委常委，宝钢股份党委书记、董事长邹继新结合宝钢股份产业转型升级的管理实践，围绕推动钢 铁产业提质升级、更好融入上海"十五五"产业规划，提出三方面建议。 一是更大力度支持钢铁企业提升数智化水平。具体来说，他建议，可以加大数字化转型示范企业、示范 项目的激励力度，发挥领军企业数字化转型对全球产业链的带动作用；搭建数字化转型成果转移转化平 台，统筹推进产学研攻关、成果转化与推广应用；鼓励、引导企业、高校、科研院所加速研发范式变 革，推动基于行业数据库和知识大模型的数字化研发基座建设，构建数据、知识双引擎的AI数字化研 发平台及示范应用。 二是更大力度支持钢铁企业加快绿色化转型。 他认为，可以构建"从供给侧激励到需求侧引导"的绿色 低碳产品激励体系，对冶金低碳工艺产线建设运营给予支持，在产能、能耗双控与减排政策上予以倾 斜；加强绿色供应链体系建设，加大绿色低碳钢材在市政重大项目和工程中的使用比例，促进上海市整 体碳减排；加 ...

内蒙古还将健全"大安全大应急"体系，加强区域综合性应急救援基地、航空应急救援体系、应急物资储 备库、消防救援基础设施等建设，提升森林草原防灭火、防汛抗旱减灾、地震灾害防范、极端天气应对 等能力。 1月18日15时03分，包钢板材厂发生爆炸事故，共造成10人死亡，84人受伤。 包钢在当天的会议上说，内蒙古要开展建筑施工、高层建筑、交通运输、矿山、危化品、燃气、消防、 旅游等重点领域隐患排查整治，强化大型活动的安全管控，坚决遏制重特大事故发生。 中新网呼和浩特2月4日电(记者李爱平)内蒙古自治区政府主席包钢2月4日在内蒙古自治区十四届人大五 次会议上表示，内蒙古要深刻汲取包钢板材厂"1·18"爆炸事故教训，坚决遏制重特大事故发生。 内蒙古自治区政协委员郭万富认为，内蒙古自治区深刻汲取包钢板材厂"1·18"爆炸事故教训的意义在 于，将发展与安全置于同等高度，才能为筑牢中国北疆安全稳定屏障提供坚实支撑。(完) ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has transitioned from the design phase to strict implementation, with significant implications for global trade and carbon emissions regulations [1][2]. Group 1: CBAM Implementation Details - The CBAM has tightened its regulations in three significant ways: the default value mechanism will now serve as a punitive threshold, requiring verified emissions data from companies starting in 2026 [2] - The CBAM's collection intensity will align with the reduction of free emission allowances within the EU, starting with a 2.5% collection rate in 2026 and aiming for 100% by 2034 [2] - After the transition period, companies will no longer be able to self-report emissions data; all compliance data must be verified by EU-recognized third parties [2] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Industries - China, as a major manufacturing and trading nation, faces dual pressures from the CBAM: increased export costs for carbon-intensive products like steel and aluminum, and heightened demands for green transformation [3] - The CBAM recognizes carbon costs already paid by imported products, allowing exporting countries to offset domestic carbon costs through carbon taxes or inclusion in carbon markets [3] Group 3: Challenges for China's Carbon Market - The clarity of the carbon market construction path is insufficient, leading to weakened confidence among market participants; currently, only the power sector is included, with other high-emission industries lacking clear timelines for inclusion [4] - Significant differences in emission reduction costs and potential among industries could lead to unfair allocation of allowances and volatile carbon prices, particularly if high-emission sectors are included prematurely [5] - The uncertainty surrounding international carbon border adjustment policies complicates the external environment for China's carbon market [5][6] Group 4: Recommendations for China's Carbon Market - To effectively respond to the CBAM, China should expand the carbon market's coverage and enhance policy transparency, including the inclusion of high-carbon industries like steel and cement [7] - A proactive approach to the global trend of carbon tariffs is necessary, including establishing a tracking and assessment mechanism for major economies' carbon tariff policies [8] - China should actively participate in shaping international carbon market rules and pricing frameworks to ensure fair treatment of its industries [9] - The carbon market's revenue distribution mechanism should be designed to support low-carbon transitions in high-emission industries, directing auction revenues towards technology upgrades and clean energy initiatives [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures showed a shrinking - volume oscillatory trend today. With the increase in the cost of raw materials (coking coal and coke), there is cost support in the short - term. The short - term pressure is around the 30 - day moving average, and the support below is at the previous low. Adopt a cautiously bullish approach. Currently, the upward movement is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward movement is supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely monitored: the inventory depletion speed and the implementation rhythm of "two major" projects and infrastructure investment. The policy support will determine the medium - term rebound space [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday decreased compared to the previous trading day, with an increase of 5,482 in open interest and a trading volume of 285,185 lots. The intraday low was 3,266 yuan and the high was 3,285 yuan. It oscillated within the day, breaking below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages in the short - term, and closed at 3,274 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.18% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between the futures and the spot was - 4 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. The current output is at a medium - to - high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival and their production enthusiasm increased [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand increased slightly this week and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week - on - week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week - on - week, while the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased week - on - week, the inventory pressure was marginally relieved, and the overall inventory was in the destocking stage [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products were introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 （1）政策演进分为三个阶段，2023 年初-2024 年 6 月，中央点明相关风险， 2024 年 7 月-2025 年 6 月中央首次提出防范"内卷式"恶性竞争，部分行业 开展自律探索但缺乏协同与刚性约束，2025 年 7 月至今为系统化实施期。 （2）核心定位方面，反内卷核心是破解地方保护主义与市场分割导致的资 源错配，与统一大市场形成双向支撑，前者为后者扫清不当竞争障碍，后者 为前者提供制度框架，共同服务于高质量发展。 实施特征看： （1）实施特征方面，呈现部委协同治理、行业自律为基、产能价格双控、 甄别标准多元四大特点。 （2）行业治理模式方面，煤炭、钢铁等传统上游行业以行政干预为主，多 晶硅、光伏等新兴及下游领域以行业自律为主，部分领域采用行政与自律结 合的模式。 （3）典型案例方面，光伏产业作为新兴产业内卷代表，经历"自律失败-政 策加力-实质推进"历程，2025 年政策加码后通过多重举措规范竞争，但下 游并网增速下滑、终端需求疲软导致硅料等环节提价压力难以传导，制约政 策效果。 宏观经济深度报告 反内卷系列一：将"反内卷"进行到底 反内卷政策是决策层针对 ...