1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the overall black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. However, there may be short - term disturbances on the demand side. With the weakening of coking coal cost support, there is an expectation of price reduction for spot goods. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures market is expected to run with wide - range oscillations affected by capital sentiment [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will fluctuate around the cost valuation [2][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. After the futures valuation is repaired to near the cost, the driving force for further upward movement is insufficient. It is difficult for the silicon iron futures price to maintain a high level [2][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of increase, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [2][12] 3.5 Steel - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still accumulating, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to run under pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 1.60% to 2458.25, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.76% to 2824.14, and the industrial products index increased by 1.48% to 2331.34. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.35% on that day, 0.87% in the past 5 days, - 4.40% in the past month, and - 3.38% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will turn from weak to strong. The news has a significant positive impact on international energy and coal - coke prices. From a fundamental perspective, the obvious reduction of coke and coking coal inventories is conducive to the bottom - up rebound of coal - coke prices, and the increase in production by coking enterprises will also bring a positive cycle of cost and price. However, attention should be paid to the start - up rhythm and intensity of downstream steel demand and how to resolve the contradiction with low steel production [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 2, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures 2605 first declined and then rose. The JM2605 contract once approached the low on January 6 but then recovered the decline of the day. The closing price of J2605 was 1652 yuan/ton, up 1.38%, with a trading volume of 18,576 lots and an open interest of 40,374 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1094 yuan/ton, up 1.06%, with a trading volume of 896,153 lots and an open interest of 545,543 lots, a decrease of 4,204 lots [5]. - In terms of the spot market on March 2, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in Linfen decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1520 yuan/ton, while other regions remained unchanged [7]. - Technically, on March 2, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2605 contract changed from sticky to rising; the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2605 contract continued to rise after a golden cross the previous day. The green bars of the daily MACD of the coke and coking coal 2605 contracts changed from expanding for two consecutive trading days to narrowing [7]. 3.2 Future Outlook - News: On February 28 (local time), the US and Israel launched a military strike against Iran, affecting the Hormuz Strait, leading to a significant increase in international crude oil prices and a resurgence in precious metal prices. On February 25, some steel mills in Tangshan received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the Two Sessions, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with the blast furnace load to be independently reduced by no less than 30%. Also on February 25, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to significantly relax the purchase restriction policy for non - Shanghai residents [9]. - Fundamentals: In the past three weeks, independent coking enterprises have continued to experience small losses, but their coke production has increased, returning to the level in mid - December last year. Port coke inventories have declined for two consecutive weeks, ending an eight - week upward trend. Steel mill coke inventories have also declined for two consecutive weeks, returning to the level before the end of January. Coking enterprise coke inventories have significantly increased, reaching a new high since early July last year. Since February 23, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has returned to the normal level of 156,000 - 199,000 tons, but the coking coal inventories of steel mills and coking plants have significantly decreased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The China Automobile Dealers Association stated that in February 2026, automobile terminal retail sales were under significant pressure. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the effective sales days were reduced, and store traffic decreased sharply. 76.8% of dealers reported that their February sales did not meet the target. After the implementation of the "Compliance Guidelines for Price Behavior in the Automobile Industry", 25.6% of dealers said the price inversion situation had improved, and 20.7% of dealers saw an increase in profitability [11]. - Tensions in the Middle East: On February 28 (local time), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced a ban on any ships passing through the Hormuz Strait. An oil tanker was hit and began to sink on March 1. The global shipping situation has been affected, with major shipping companies avoiding the Persian Gulf, and some ports and airlines suspending operations. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on March 1 that eight major oil - producing countries decided to increase daily production by 206,000 barrels in April. Thailand plans to suspend fuel exports and take measures to ensure domestic energy supply [11][12][13]. - The World Stainless Steel Association data shows that in 2025, the global stainless steel crude steel production was 64.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Asian production increased by 2.7% year - on - year, EU production decreased by 1.9%, US production increased by 7.6%, and production in other countries decreased by 11.3% [13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average hot metal production, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [15][16][17].

Group 1: Core Insights - Commodity prices continue to rise, with the fundamental high-frequency index reaching 130.1 points, an increase of 6.0 points year-on-year [2] - The industrial production high-frequency index is at 129.0, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.1 points, indicating stable production growth [2] - The inventory high-frequency index stands at 165.1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4 points, suggesting a healthy inventory level [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The coal industry showed a performance increase of 14.5% in March, while the steel industry increased by 20.1%, indicating strong demand [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector experienced a significant rise of 35.0% in March, reflecting robust market conditions [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a remarkable increase of 44.7% in March, highlighting a strong recovery in this industry [1] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is facing increased attention due to geopolitical factors, with rising production costs driven by higher crude oil prices [8] - The price of live pigs has dropped below 11 CNY/kg, leading to deeper losses for producers, suggesting a potential reduction in supply [8] - The mushroom market remains strong, with prices for enoki mushrooms maintaining a positive trend, indicating growth opportunities in this segment [8] Group 4: Media and Internet Sector Analysis - The media sector underperformed, with a 5.1% decline in the media index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.1% [5] - The gaming sector is expected to perform well, with a focus on major titles and high demand in Q1, suggesting investment opportunities [6] - AI applications are anticipated to drive growth in the media sector, with several companies launching new products and upgrades [6]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows a recovery in production post-holiday, with strong demand for travel and services, although construction and real estate recovery remains slow [6] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to increased prices for precious metals and oil, with gold and silver prices rising significantly due to supply concerns [10][25] - The Chinese stock market is expected to remain stable despite external geopolitical pressures, with a focus on internal economic stability and growth [21][22] Group 2: Industry Insights - The steel industry is seeing a rise in social and factory inventories, but profitability is under pressure, with many companies still operating at a loss [39][40] - The logistics and warehousing sector is experiencing a recovery, particularly at the Ganqimaodu port, with significant increases in cargo volume and transportation activity [42] - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with increased financing and government support for the development of commercial space industries [19] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Strategic resources such as oil and rare earths are expected to see price increases due to geopolitical tensions, presenting investment opportunities in these sectors [16] - The urban renewal initiative in China is anticipated to stabilize the real estate market and boost domestic demand, with significant investment planned in infrastructure and housing [18] - The AI and technology sectors are poised for growth, driven by increased demand for domestic models and applications, with a focus on power and computing resources [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international coal market is currently strong, which is expected to support domestic coking coal prices. After the decline in the futures market, the current coking coal price has basically factored in existing negative factors, and the downward space is limited. It is not recommended to chase short positions. From a valuation perspective, the current valuation of coking coal is not high. Considering the risk - return ratio, one can try to go long at low prices, but should not be overly optimistic about the upside potential. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and there is no trend - forming opportunity yet. Band trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Prices**: For coking coal futures, JM01 was 1392.5 today, up 10.5 from yesterday; JM05 was 1094, up 0.5; JM09 was 1194.5, up 5.5. For coke futures, J01 was 1818, up 12; J05 was 1652, up 16.5; J09 was 1731, up 16.5 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Low - sulfur main coking coal was 1570, unchanged; medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1270, unchanged; Mongolian 5 raw coal at the port was 1013, up 18; Mongolian 5 cleaned coal at the port was 1197, unchanged. For coke, port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) was 1470, unchanged; port quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) was 1680, unchanged [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: For coking coal, Shanxi coal warehouse receipts were 1190, unchanged; Mongolian 5 was 1166, up 21; Mongolian 3 was 1023, unchanged; Australian coal (port spot) was 1235, down 20. For coke, port spot (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1581, unchanged; port spot (dry - quenched) were 1680, unchanged; Shanxi origin (wet - quenched) were 1600, unchanged; Shanxi origin (dry - quenched) were 1700, unchanged [4]. - **Basis**: Coking coal basis varied by contract and coal type. For example, for Shanxi coal, the 01 - contract basis was - 123, the 05 - contract basis was 96, and the 09 - contract basis was - 5. Coke basis also varied by contract and location [4]. - **Transportation Prices**: Transportation prices for coking coal and coke remained unchanged, such as the price from Jiexiu to Fengnan District was 140, unchanged [4]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Try to go long at low prices. In the medium term, expect wide - range fluctuations and recommend band trading [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. - **Related Prices**: Coke: Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1581 yuan/ton, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) were 1680 yuan/ton, Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) were 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) were 1700 yuan/ton. Coking coal: Shanxi coal warehouse receipts were 1190 yuan/ton, Mongolian 5 were 1166 yuan/ton, Mongolian 3 were 1023 yuan/ton, Australian coal (port spot) were 1235 yuan/ton [8]. - **Important Information** - The Mongolian imported coking coal market was weak. The market was characterized by "loose supply and weak demand recovery". Coking enterprises were mainly digesting inventory, and the restocking demand was moderate. The port inventory had reached 425 tons, and the sales pressure on traders increased, but the electronic auction sentiment in Mongolia was still relatively positive [9]. - The Yangtze River port market for thermal coal was stable. After the Spring Festival, the downstream resumption of work was slow, the acceptance of prices by rigid demand was average, the market liquidity was poor, and the price increase was weak. The inventory at the Yangtze Estuary had reached a high level, and there was a possibility of price decline. The current price of CV5000 at the Yangtze Estuary was 690 - 710 yuan [9]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of coking coal and coke over the years, such as the coke comprehensive absolute price index, Mongolian 5 cleaned coal price, coking coal basis, etc. [11][13][15]

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The global AI industry continues to develop rapidly, with US tech giants increasing investments in AI infrastructure to gain competitive advantages, indicating that the risk of over-investment is less than that of under-investment [7][8] - AI products are driving China's export growth, with a projected export growth rate of 4.8%-5.6% in 2026, supported by increased capital expenditure from US tech companies [8] - The competition between China and the US in technology and critical minerals is expected to intensify, as the US aims to maintain its economic and technological lead over China [8][9] Group 2: Industry Insights - The coal industry is expected to experience a rebound due to multiple positive catalysts, including supply-side reforms and a balanced supply-demand dynamic, which will stabilize coal prices [37][49] - The power sector is undergoing deep reforms, with stable electricity demand growth and a projected increase in investment in power grid infrastructure, which is expected to maintain high demand for electrical equipment [41][46] - The non-banking financial sector is seeing consolidation, with Dongwu Securities planning to acquire control of Donghai Securities, enhancing its resource capabilities in the Yangtze River Delta [31][34] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are identified in the coal sector, focusing on companies that can benefit from both cyclical and dividend logic, with specific recommendations for companies like China Shenhua and Yancoal [51][52] - The power sector presents opportunities in thermal power, wind power, and electrical equipment, with recommended stocks including Huaneng International and Longyuan Power [48] - The non-banking financial sector is expected to benefit from ongoing mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on firms with strong wealth management capabilities [35]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant expectation gap regarding the duration of the current US-Israel-Iran conflict and the implications of the Strait of Hormuz on global energy supply [2][3] - The market's linear extrapolation of a quick resolution through "AI precision strikes" overlooks the decentralized defense mechanisms that may prolong the conflict and the irreversible impact of a blockade on energy supply [2][3] Current Three Major Expectation Gaps - The first gap is the misalignment between the expectation of a swift resolution following the elimination of Iranian leadership and the reality of Iran's hierarchical power structure, which allows for rapid command chain restoration despite potential losses [3] - The second gap concerns the physical rigidity of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where the market underestimates the implications of Iranian naval operations and the paradox of increased production without transport capacity, threatening global energy security [3] - The third gap involves the US strategy of "watch and engage," where the government is likely to avoid large-scale ground conflicts due to political and financial constraints, leading to a prolonged period of geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East [4] Recommended Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on "certain varieties" such as shipping (oil and dry bulk), gold, upstream energy (oil, coal, coal chemicals), and chemicals (methanol, urea) [5] - It also recommends "trend varieties" based on future developments, including defense and military technology (military AI, drones, missile defense), cybersecurity, and export manufacturing alternatives [5] - A macro perspective on "non-consensus" allocations is advised, emphasizing agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and volatility strategies to hedge against inflation risks [5] Investment Summary - Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence in a bull market while reducing slope expectations and seizing opportunities in physical asset allocations created by geopolitical shocks, particularly in energy and shipping [6] - Long-term strategies should prioritize technology, focusing on the redistribution of wealth driven by AI advancements [6] - Recent industry rotations in the A-share market validate the report's annual strategy outlook, indicating a shift in importance from beta to alpha, with a focus on stock selection logic under the "prosperity investment methodology" [6]

- The report highlights the performance of various market indices, noting that the CSI 300 Index performed well among scale indices, while the SSE Composite Index performed well among sector indices, and the CSI 500 Value Index performed well among style indices[2][6] - The market sentiment on 2026-03-02 showed 98 stocks hitting the upper limit and 24 stocks hitting the lower limit, with a sealing rate of 74% and a continuous board rate of 28%[2][13][16] - The financing balance as of 2026-02-27 was 26,519 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 173 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 2.5% of the circulating market value and the financing transaction accounting for 9.7% of the market turnover[2][18][22] - The ETF with the highest premium on 2026-02-27 was the CSI 500 ETF by BOCOM, with a premium of 0.86%, while the ETF with the highest discount was the Photovoltaic ETF by Guotai, with a discount of 0.85%[3][23][25] - The median annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures over the past year were 0.68%, 3.88%, 11.15%, and 13.55%, respectively[3][29][32] - The stocks with the highest net inflows from institutional seats on the Dragon and Tiger List on 2026-03-02 were Minbao Optoelectronics, Xianglu Tungsten Industry, Baiyun Electric, China Ruilin, Cangzhou Dahua, Chuanrun Co., Ltd., Hunan Gold, Aerospace Rainbow, Zhongrun Optics, and Guohang Ocean[4][37][39] - The stocks with the highest net inflows from Northbound Trading on the Dragon and Tiger List on 2026-03-02 were Xiaocheng Technology, China Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Liande Co., Ltd., Sanfu Co., Ltd., Aerospace Rainbow, Roman Co., Ltd., Yujing Co., Ltd., Potential Hengxin, Tin Industry Co., Ltd., and Baiyun Electric[4][38][41]

Core Insights - The coal industry is expected to experience a new supply-side reform driven by multiple marginal catalysts, leading to a more reasonable coal price and a reversal of the "involution" logic seen in previous years [3] - The rebound in thermal coal prices is anticipated to fluctuate within a range, while coking coal prices are expected to exhibit full elasticity [4] - The dual attributes of coal as both a cyclical and dividend stock position it as a preferred asset for market allocation, especially in a weak economic environment [5] Industry Innovation - The supply-side reform is defined in two phases: the first phase focuses on reducing output to stabilize prices, while the second phase aims at capacity reduction and structural adjustment [9] - The expected outcomes of the reform include a return to long-term contract price ranges and a balanced supply-demand dynamic, which will support sustainable industry profitability [12] Price Dynamics - The price recovery process for thermal coal is projected to follow a path from bottom recovery to a reasonable price, with specific targets set at 670 CNY/ton for central enterprise long-term contracts and 700 CNY/ton for local long-term contracts [22] - The anticipated price range for thermal coal is between 800 CNY/ton and 860 CNY/ton, with a target of 750 CNY/ton representing the profit-sharing line for coal and power enterprises [22] Import Dynamics - Indonesia remains China's largest coal supplier, with imports expected to reach 2.11 billion tons in 2025, accounting for 43.1% of China's total coal imports [27] - The tightening of Indonesia's coal export policies, including export quotas and pricing adjustments, is expected to fundamentally alter the supply landscape and support price stabilization [28] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes the dual attributes of coal, focusing on four main lines: cyclical logic, dividend logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [5] - Selected coal stocks are expected to benefit from these strategies, including companies like Jinneng Holding, Yanzhou Coal, and China Shenhua Energy [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The coking coal market has a short - term upward trend due to geopolitical conflicts, but the fundamentals have no obvious change. After the sentiment recovers, it may give back some gains. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of the March meeting [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Part Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and moved low, with a slight intraday rebound. The Iran - US conflict led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The supply of imported coal is gradually recovering, and domestic mines are resuming work, with the开工 load increasing by 20%. The inventory of coking coal mines has increased by 6.04 tons, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The iron - water output of steel mills has increased by 2.79 tons, and the emission reduction during the Two Sessions may interfere with short - term operations. The real - estate stimulus policies in many places need attention [1] Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 1006 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1094 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From February 21st to February 27th, the coking coal开工率of 523 domestic sample mines was 68.24%, a month - on - month increase of 19.35 percentage points. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 64.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.02 tons [4] Demand Data - From February 21st to February 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 64.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 233.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79 tons [5]