每经AI快讯，2月7日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪锡涨1.69%，沪铜涨1.49%，沪铝涨 0.98%，沪镍涨0.87%，沪锌涨0.43%，沪铅跌0.12%，不锈钢跌0.36%，氧化铝跌1.84%。 ...

凛冬将至，中国期货市场迎来一场交易所主导的"压力测试"与"参数预调"，预示着一个波动常态化、风控精细化的新阶段。春节的脚步越来越近，市场却依 然暗流涌动，上海期货交易所（以下简称"上期所"）在2月5日收盘后发布重磅通知，再次拧紧了期货市场的"安全阀"，投资者们面临着更为严苛的资金考 验。 让我们把时间拨回到2026年初，全球大宗商品市场正经历着一轮惊心动魄的"过山车"行情。黄金价格一度逼近历史新高，白银市场更是上演了单日涨跌超过 30%的罕见景象。国内市场，沪铜等有色金属也频频刷新价格纪录。极端的价格波动，如同一把双刃剑，在带来机遇的同时，也使得市场风险急剧积聚，产 业链上的实体企业面临着前所未有的风险管理压力。 东证衍生品研究院的分析认为，适度放宽涨跌停板限制，是交易所市场成熟度提升的表现，有利于发挥期货市场的价格发现功能。 上期所选择在春节长假前夕实施此次调整，其稳定市场、防范长假期间外盘剧烈波动风险的意图不言而喻。顾冯达认为，在海外不确定性高企的关键节点， 这一举措体现了监管层"稳字当头、以我为主"的风控思路，是对防范金融风险、服务实体经济的一贯坚持。 那么，这次调整的核心内容究竟是什么？根据上期所的通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The futures market is becoming a crucial support for real enterprises to manage risks and stabilize operations amid a complex international environment and domestic economic adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Real Enterprises - Real enterprises are currently facing unprecedented operational challenges due to severe price fluctuations, supply chain restructuring, and macro policy divergence [1]. - The steel industry, for example, has seen an 18% year-on-year decline in average rebar prices for 2024, with some steel mills' sales profit margins dropping below 1% [2]. - Over 60% of small and medium-sized steel enterprises have a hedging ratio of less than 20%, indicating a significant lack of risk management capabilities [2]. Group 2: Role of Futures Tools - Futures tools are increasingly viewed as a "stabilizer" for enterprises to mitigate risks [2]. - The futures market provides authoritative forward price signals that help enterprises plan production effectively [2]. - By utilizing hedging operations, enterprises can transfer price fluctuation risks, locking in costs and profits [2]. Group 3: Innovative Service Models - The "six-step" full-chain service model developed by Yong'an Futures in collaboration with Liuzhou Steel is a typical example of how futures tools assist enterprises in managing operational risks [3]. - This model includes developing hedging management methods, cultivating delivery qualifications, and creating a complete service ecosystem [3]. - The registration of the first 5,190 tons of rebar warehouse receipts helped Liuzhou Steel avoid potential losses of 1.2456 million yuan [3]. Group 4: Service System Development - Yong'an Futures has established the "Yongdong Qihang" industry service brand, covering the entire lifecycle of enterprises from startup to maturity [4]. - The company has served 16,000 real enterprises and has been recognized as one of the "Top 500 Service Enterprises in China" for five consecutive years [4]. Group 5: Technological Advancements - The "Yongyiqi" one-stop intelligent service platform has transformed traditional service models, significantly improving service efficiency by reducing processing times for warehouse receipts and delivery [5]. - The platform has served over 1,000 enterprises, facilitating a shift from offline manual operations to online intelligent services [5]. Group 6: Investor Education Initiatives - Yong'an Futures is addressing the lack of understanding of the futures market by implementing a comprehensive investor education strategy [6]. - The company has established a national service network and launched various educational products to enhance awareness and understanding of futures tools [6]. Group 7: Future Directions - The futures industry needs to continue enhancing service upgrades and educational innovations to help enterprises better understand and utilize futures tools for risk management [7]. - By promoting professional, diverse, and engaging educational methods, the industry aims to strengthen its role in supporting the real economy and contributing to national strategies [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of China increasing its procurement of US soybeans has driven up the price of US soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, there is an increasing pressure of long - term supply. On the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost increases. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: Trump stated that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, with the cumulative export of 34.29 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.27 million tons. Among them, the export to China was 230,000 tons that week, and the cumulative export to China this year was 9.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.33 million tons. StoneX estimated that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January estimate and 13 million tons more than the previous year. As of January 31, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 99.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points higher than the five - year average; the soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The USDA predicted in January that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [10] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores of various indicators such as the price difference between US soybeans 3 - 5, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal were analyzed. It was expected that the price of protein meal would continue to fluctuate in the short term [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommended waiting and seeing [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: Provided the historical price trends of soybean meal spot in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [21][22] - **Basis of the Main Contract**: Presented the historical basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: Showed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - September contracts and the rapeseed meal May - September contracts from 2205/2209 to 2605/2609 [27][28] - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Displayed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May contracts and the soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September contracts from 2022 to 2026 [30][31] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39] - **Weather Conditions**: Compared the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same period of the year and summarized the precipitation and temperature anomalies in the main soybean - producing areas as of February 4 [42][44][45] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Showed the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes of US soybeans, the current and next - year market - year export volumes to China, and China's monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds from 2021 to 2025 [53][54][56] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Presented the historical crushing volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [62][63] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Displayed the monthly export volumes and export volumes to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes to China of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2022 to 2026 [65][66][68] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory Situation**: Showed the historical inventory trends of soybean ports and major oil mill rapeseeds from 2022 to 2026 [76][77] - **Protein Meal Inventory Situation**: Presented the historical inventory trends of coastal major oil mill soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [79][80] - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit**: Displayed the historical pressing profit trends of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [82][83] 3.5 Demand Side - **Protein Meal Consumption**: Showed the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 [86] - **Breeding Profit**: Presented the historical profit trends of self - breeding and self - raising pigs per head and white - feather broiler breeding from 2022 to 2026 [88][89]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals futures market has experienced significant declines, prompting the Shanghai Futures Exchange to implement measures to mitigate market risks by adjusting margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver futures contracts [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 6, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by over 18% at one point, closing down 14.92% at 18,799 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The main contract for gold futures opened down more than 5% but narrowed its losses to 2.02%, closing at 1,090.12 yuan per gram [3]. - For the week, silver futures have seen a cumulative decline of over 37%, while gold futures have dropped more than 8% [6]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from February 9, 2026, the price limit for silver futures will be adjusted to 20%, with margin requirements for holding positions set at 21% for hedging and 22% for general positions [6]. - For gold futures, the margin requirements will be adjusted to 17%, 18%, and 19% for different types of positions [6]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent series of regulatory measures by domestic exchanges serves as a buffer against the emotional volatility in overseas markets, indicating a need for domestic investors to enhance risk management across major asset classes [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a Maike Futures basis statistics table dated February 4, 2026, at 9:00, covering various futures and spot prices [2]. Group 2: Core Data Metals - **Copper (CU)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.06%, with a decrease of -0.31% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -310, -670, and -850 respectively. The spot price is 101,320, and the source is SMM 1 electrolytic copper [3]. - **Aluminum (AL)**: The main contract basis rate is -0.98%, with an increase of 0.44% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -230, -332, and -395 respectively. The spot price is 23,290, and the source is SMM A00 aluminum [3]. - **Zinc (ZN)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.58%, with an increase of 1.34% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 145 and 82 respectively. The spot price is 25,050, and the source is SMM 0FFF [3]. - **Tin (SN)**: The main contract basis rate is 2.30%, with an increase of 6.71% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 8280, 7270, and 7420 respectively. The spot price is 381,900, and the source is SMM 1 tin [3]. - **Nickel (NI)**: The main contract basis rate is 2.12%, with an increase of 4.81% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 6380, 2030, and 5720 respectively. The spot price is 139,050, and the source is SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [3]. - **Industrial Silicon (IT)**: The main contract basis rate is 5.47%, with an increase of 0.06% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 510 and 485 respectively. The spot price is 88,520, and the source is SMM East China general 553 silicon [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.31%, with an increase of 0.49% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 2140, 2140, and 1900 respectively. The spot price is 147,200, and the source is Steel Union high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate [3]. - **Gold (AU)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.23%, with a decrease of -1.60% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are -0.50 and -2.36 respectively. The spot price is 1096.34, and the source is AuT + D: Shanghai Gold Exchange [3]. - **Silver (AG)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.72%, with an increase of 6.40% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 154, 779, and 1235 respectively. The spot price is 21,600, and the source is Ag(T + D): Shanghai Gold Exchange [3]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar (RB)**: The main contract basis rate is 3.58%, with a decrease of -0.03% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 111 and 28 respectively. The spot price is 3210, and the source is HRB400: 20mm: Shanghai [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC)**: The main contract basis rate is -0.46%, with a decrease of -0.12% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -15, -36, and -60 respectively. The spot price is 3250, and the source is Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract basis rate is 7.34%, with an increase of 0.20% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 57.1, 74.6, and 85.6 respectively. The spot price is 834.6, and the source is PB powder: 61%: Qingdao [3]. - **Coke**: The main contract basis rate is -11%, with a decrease of -1.92% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -110.0, -179.0, and -269.0 respectively. The spot price is 1605, and the source is metallurgical coke: quasi - first - class [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract basis rate is 5.14%, with a decrease of -2.19% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 60.0, -18.0, and -182.5 respectively. The spot price is 1227.5, and the source is main coking coal: Jixian: Mongolian No. 5 [3]. - **Steam Coal (ZC)**: The main contract basis rate is 12.65%, with no change (0.00%) compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -101.4, -101.4, and -101.4 respectively. The spot price is 700.0, and the source is Shanxi Q500: Qinhuangdao Port [3]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: The main contract basis rate is -5.87%, with an increase of 0.07% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -316, -390, and -466 respectively. The spot price is 5290, and the source is FeSi75 - B: Inner Mongolia [3]. - **Manganese Silicon (SM)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.44%, with a decrease of -0.03% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 84 and 40 respectively. The spot price is 5920, and the source is FeMn68Si18: Hebei [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract basis rate is 3.79%, with a decrease of -2.7% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 382 and 255 respectively. The spot price is 14100, and the source is 304/2B: 2.0*1219: Angang Lianzhong Wuxi [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans (A)**: The main contract basis rate is -6.18%, with an increase of 0.19% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -284, -318, and -318 respectively. The spot price is 4100, and the source is domestic first - class soybeans: Harbin [3]. - **Soybean Meal (M)**: The main contract basis rate is 11.11%, with an increase of 0.20% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 137, 303, and 189 respectively. The spot price is 3030, and the source is ordinary protein soybean meal: Zhangjiagang [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM)**: The main contract basis rate is 10.72%, with an increase of 1.31% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 241, 203, and 265 respectively. The spot price is 2490, and the source is ordinary rapeseed meal: Nantong [3]. - **Edible Oils and Oilseeds** - **Soybean Oil (V)**: The main contract basis rate is 6.98%, with a decrease of -0.94% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 564, 620, and 650 respectively. The spot price is 8650, and the source is first - grade soybean oil: Zhangjiagang [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI)**: The main contract basis rate is 8.19%, with a decrease of -1.26% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 910, 755, and 835 respectively. The spot price is 9970, and the source is rapeseed oil: Jiangsu [3]. - **Peanuts (PK)**: The main contract basis rate is 14.57%, with no change (0.00%) compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 1274, 668, and 990 respectively. The spot price is 9200, and the source is Baisha peanuts: 45% oil content, 9% water content, Changtu [3]. - **Palm Oil (P)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.73%, with an increase of 0.22% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 66, 120, and 200 respectively. The spot price is 9160, and the source is 24 - degree palm oil: Guangdong [3]. - **Grains** - **Corn (C)**: The main contract basis rate is 2.56%, with a decrease of -0.49% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 71 and 28 respectively. The spot price is 5355, and the source is Guoshenquan Port national - standard first - class corn [3]. - **Corn Starch (CS)**: The main contract basis rate is 4.03%, with an increase of 0.17% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 38 and 40 respectively. The spot price is 2572, and the source is the ex - factory price of corn starch: Changchun [3]. - **Agricultural By - products** - **Apples (AP)**: The main contract basis rate is -12.49%, with a decrease of -0.98% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are -1185 and 44 respectively. The spot price is 8300, and the source is the average price of red Fuji apples in Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan [3]. - **Eggs (JD)**: The main contract basis rate is 26.99%, with a decrease of -2.42% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 323, -123, and 3427 respectively. The spot price is 3427, and the source is eggs: Hebei Cangzhou [3]. - **Hogs (LH)**: The main contract basis rate is 12.90%, with a decrease of -1.62% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 1000 and -455 respectively. The spot price is 12600, and the source is external ternary hogs: Henan [3]. - **Soft Commodities** - **Cotton (CF)**: The main contract basis rate is 9.13%, with a decrease of -1.13% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 1337, 1207, and 797 respectively. The spot price is 15987, and the source is the cotton price index 328: Xinjiang [3]. - **Sugar (SR)**: The main contract basis rate is 3.74%, with an increase of 0.80% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 193, 183, and 80 respectively. The spot price is 5360, and the source is white sugar: Liuzhou [3]. Chemicals - **Methanol (MA)**: The main contract basis rate is -0.31%, with a decrease of -0.11% compared to yesterday. The current month basis is -86. The spot price is 2240 [3]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: The main contract basis rate is -2.1%, with no change (0.00%) compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -102, -208, and -296 respectively. The spot price is 3665, and the source is ethanol: East China [3]. - **PTA (TA)**: The main contract basis rate is -1.07%, with an increase of 0.15% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -55, -57, and -13 respectively. The spot price is 2005, and the source is PTA: East China [3]. - **Ethylene (EB)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.55%, with a decrease of -1.63% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 208, 415, and 480 respectively. The spot price is 7572 [3]. - **Short - fiber (PF)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.23%, with a decrease of -0.25% compared to yesterday. The current month basis is 20 [3]. - **Rubber (RU)**: The main contract basis rate is -1.13%, with a decrease of -1.23% compared to yesterday [3]. - **Asphalt (BU)**: The main contract basis rate is -1.18%, with a decrease of -0.60% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -54, -35, and 53 respectively. The spot price is 3250 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU)**: The main contract basis rate is -4.61%, with an increase of 2.60% compared to yesterday. The current month and next month basis are 94 and 85 respectively. The spot price is 3250 [3]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The main contract basis rate is 1.78%, with a decrease of -0.24% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 120, 93, and 144 respectively. The spot price is 6920, and the source is the market price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S [3]. - **Soda Ash (SA)**: The main contract basis rate is -3.6%, with an increase of 0.16% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are -136, -38, and -102 respectively. The spot price is 1163, and the source is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe [3]. - **Urea (UR)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.00%, with an increase of 0.95% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 0, 34, and 40 respectively. The spot price is 1770, and the source is small - particle urea: Henan [3]. - **LPG (PG)**: The main contract basis rate is 15.59%, with a decrease of -1.08% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 483, 813, and 688 respectively. The spot price is 4848, and the source is the market price in Guangzhou [3]. Financial Futures - **CSI 300 (IF)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.15%, with a decrease of -0.47% compared to yesterday. The current month, next month, and the month after next basis are 2.5, 7.1, and 35.1 respectively. The spot price is 4660.1 [3]. - **SSE 50 (IH)**: The main contract basis rate is 0.05%, with an increase of 0.09% compared to yesterday. The current month basis is 1.6. The spot price is 3034.6 [

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The economic recovery's internal driving force remains unstable, with the January official manufacturing PMI falling below expectations and the economy's upward foundation being unsteady. There is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after structural interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, and the long - term strategy is to buy on the dips [11][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: In January, the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, lower than expected. Production and demand declined, and enterprise profit margins may be under pressure. The export orders decreased, large enterprises were in the expansion range, and small and medium - sized enterprises were in the contraction range. The service industry in the non - manufacturing sector declined due to the off - season, and the construction industry's prosperity significantly dropped. Overseas, the US liquidity improved, and the market postponed the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut to mid - year. The central bank held a meeting to develop various types of finance and support key areas. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.3, maintaining an expansion trend. The Australian central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points [11] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 10055 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases this week, with 17615 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6560 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48% [13] - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.82%, up 0.59 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury bond yield was 2.27%, down 1.25 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.21%, down 5.00 BP week - on - week [13] - **Summary**: The January official PMI data showed a decline in both supply and demand, and the economic recovery's momentum needs to be observed. There is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the central bank will maintain a stable capital situation. The bond market's allocation power is strong, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [13] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The economic fundamentals need further improvement, and the net basis is low. The bond market's downward adjustment space is limited, and the long - term strategy is to buy on the dips [14] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: The recommended strategy is to buy on the dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult credit improvement [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **T Contract**: Presented the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the T - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [18] - **TL Contract**: Showed the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the TL - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [23] - **TF Contract**: Displayed the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the TF - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [26] - **TS Contract**: Demonstrated the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the TS - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [28] - **TS and TF Positions**: Presented the closing price and position volume trends of the TS and TF contracts [33] - **T and TL Positions**: Showed the closing price and position volume trends of the T and TL contracts [38] 3.3 Main Economic Data 3.3.1 Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In Q3, 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding expectations. In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [43] - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In January 2026, the manufacturing supply and demand weakened. The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, and new orders decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2 [44][49] - **Price Index**: In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The month - on - month CPI, core CPI, and PPI all increased by 0.2% [52] - **Export Data**: In December 2025, China's export data was stronger than expected, with exports increasing by 6.5% year - on - year and imports increasing by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate [55] - **Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales**: In December 2025, the industrial added - value growth rate was 5.2% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points [58] - **Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 17.2%. In December 2025, the month - on - month price of second - hand housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7%, and the year - on - year price was - 6.1% [62] - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In December 2025, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 587700,000 square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 20.4%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6598900,000 square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The cumulative year - on - year data of the completion end decreased by 18.16%, and the new - home sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was weak [65][68] 3.3.2 Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In Q3 2025, the US GDP at current prices was 3109.5 billion US dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 4.30%. In December 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.0% month - on - month. In November 2025, the US durable goods orders were 323.7 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. In January 2026, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 53.8 [71][74][77] - **EU Economy**: In Q3 2025, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [77] - **Eurozone Economy**: In December 2025, the Eurozone CPI increased by 2% year - on - year. In January 2026, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, and the service industry PMI was 51.9 [80] 3.4 Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In December 2025, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The M1 growth rate declined due to the base effect. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan. The new RMB loans were 9700 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 800 billion yuan [85] - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.1%, and the government bond growth rate was 17.1% [88] - **MLF and Reverse Repurchases**: In January 2026, the MLF balance was 6950 billion yuan, with a net MLF injection of 700 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 10055 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, with 17615 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6560 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48% [91] 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: Provided the latest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [94] - **Interest Rate Trends**: Presented the trends of Treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy [98][99][103] - **Fed Target Rate and Exchange Rates**: Showed the trends of the Fed's target rate, the USD/RMB exchange rate, and the US dollar index [105]

Core Insights - The futures market has evolved significantly since its establishment in Chicago in 1848, with nearly 90 exchanges globally and over 2000 futures and options products by the end of 2024, covering various sectors of the economy [1] Group 1: Nature and Function of the Futures Market - The futures market serves as both a commodity trading market and a financial investment market, where futures contracts act as both sales contracts for commodities and investment tools [1] - Producers use the futures market to sell contracts in advance to hedge against price fluctuations, ensuring sustainable operations [1] - Speculators trade futures contracts to profit from price volatility while providing liquidity for hedging activities of real enterprises [1][2] Group 2: Development Needs of the Futures Market - The development of the futures market requires participation from various investors, emphasizing the importance of investor education and market cultivation due to its high specialization and leverage [2] - There is a need for foundational theoretical research and promotion to clarify the market's dual nature and operational mechanisms [3] - Training for industry professionals, including regulators and intermediaries, is essential to ensure they understand commodity markets, financial investments, and financing methods [3] Group 3: Institutional and Systematic Innovations - Entities must innovate organizational structures to facilitate differentiated services for producers and speculators, ensuring effective regulatory coordination [4] - A comprehensive set of regulations is necessary to enhance trading efficiency and reduce costs, linking futures and spot markets effectively [4] - The futures market should expand its product offerings to meet the needs of producers, ensuring that standardized contracts are available for all competitive and scalable commodities [4] Group 4: Policy and Support Mechanisms - Policies should aim to reduce taxes and fees for entities participating in the futures market while enhancing infrastructure for financial investments [5] - Futures companies play a crucial role in providing integrated services for commodity trading and financial investment, including risk management and investor education [6] Group 5: Differentiated Development of Futures Companies - Futures companies can be categorized based on their shareholder backgrounds, such as those linked to real enterprises, brokerage firms, or banks, each offering unique advantages [6][7] - Companies with real enterprise backgrounds can leverage supply chain data and customer resources to provide tailored risk management solutions [6] - Brokerage-backed futures companies can create synergies with securities markets, enhancing customer engagement and service offerings [7] - Bank-affiliated futures companies can provide comprehensive services that integrate financing, trading, and risk management, supporting the healthy development of the real economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The development of China's futures market is guided by a unique financial development path that emphasizes serving the real economy and adhering to national strategies while preventing systemic risks [1][3]. Group 1: Characteristics of China's Futures Market - The core concept of China's futures market is centered on the people, aiming to serve and comply with national strategies, fundamentally focusing on serving the real economy [1]. - The value orientation of the market is "finance for the people," exemplified by innovative models like "insurance + futures" that effectively support small farmers and rural areas [1]. - The market aligns with major national strategies, actively supporting initiatives such as agricultural strength, manufacturing power, and green low-carbon development [1]. Group 2: Recent Developments in the Futures Market - The market has introduced unique products, including futures for apples, red dates, peanuts, and live pigs, creating a distinctive risk management tool system across various industries [2]. - Innovative business models have emerged, such as "insurance + futures" and its upgraded versions, which connect the futures market with households and enhance service delivery [2]. - A regulatory and risk control system with Chinese characteristics has been established, featuring a collaborative mechanism among regulatory bodies and effective risk management practices [2][3]. Group 3: Future Directions for Development - The futures market aims to enhance its international pricing influence, transitioning from "Chinese prices" to "Chinese benchmarks" by expanding the product pool and optimizing trading pathways [4][5]. - Building a world-class exchange is a priority, evolving from a traditional trading platform to a comprehensive risk management service hub [5]. - The market seeks to diversify its investor structure, moving from a retail-dominated base to a more institutional, professional, and international composition [5][6]. - Regulatory practices will shift towards intelligent supervision and high-level openness, utilizing big data and AI for more precise risk management [6]. - The service capabilities of operating institutions will be strengthened, transforming them into comprehensive risk management service providers tailored to client needs [6]. - Resource allocation functions will be optimized, integrating the futures market with various sectors to enhance efficiency in capital and resource flow [6]. Conclusion - The future development of China's futures market is a systematic upgrade process aimed at establishing a resilient modern risk management market and resource allocation center that aligns with the country's economic strength and global standing [7].

01 月度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 沃什被提名为联储主席， 金银价格大幅下跌 贵金属月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 05 贵金属价差 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度总结 ◆ 月度行情总结：2026 年 1 月，贵金属市场的政策博弈与杠杆资金动向深度交织，共同主导了全月的价格涨跌与剧烈波动。市场完整经历了 "震荡上行-高位回调-月末修复"的走势：政策博弈是触发波动的核心因素，而杠杆资金的快速进出则显著放大了波动幅度。中上旬市场对 于美国降息预期升温叠加特朗普停征白银关税导致现货收紧等因素支撑，市场看涨情绪高度一致，杠杆资金加速入场助推金银价格走强，形 成共振上涨格局。 ◆ 1月下旬市场格局发生剧烈反转，短期波动进一步加剧。在海内外交易所先后上调金银保证金的背景下，1月29日特朗普提名沃什出任美联储 主席的消息引发宏观政策预期转向，市场看涨预期被快速逆转，直接触发杠杆资金大规模撤离，集中出逃 ...