Group 1: Core Concepts - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower than HV [3] - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is related to the IV index and HV [5] Group 2: Data Visualization - There are graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various options, including 300 - stock index, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, soybean, corn, cotton, rubber, iron ore, PTA, crude oil, PVC, rebar, urea, rapeseed, and palm oil options [4] - There is a graph presenting the implied volatility quantile ranking and historical volatility quantile ranking of some options such as PTA and 50ETF [6][7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as production adjustments in South America, Chinese procurement, and domestic policies. The oil market is supported by the Middle - East situation and Indian procurement, showing a short - term upward trend but with risks from market sentiment fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Soybean and Bean Meal - The US Department of Agriculture lowered Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production forecast from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, while keeping Brazil's at 180 million tons. US 2025/26 soybean imports and crush volumes are expected to increase, with unchanged ending stocks [1] - Brazil's February soybean shipments to China were revised down to 9.1 million tons, with 6.5 million tons in February and 13 million tons scheduled for March. US Gulf and West Coast shipments to China in February were 2.4 million tons, and in March, they are expected to increase to 1.7 million tons [1] - The US Department of Agriculture made few data adjustments, and the driving force for US soybeans is China's future procurement. There may be an order signed during Trump's visit to China from March 31 to April 2. Before the domestic soybean reserve release is confirmed, the market is full of speculations [2] 2. Oil - International oil prices have risen too fast, and buyers prefer to purchase from local sellers. The CIF price of imported crude palm oil in February was about $100/ton lower than that of crude soybean oil, and now the prices are almost the same. If India reduces long - term purchases, it may limit the further rise of vegetable oil prices but may also lead to a tight domestic supply in April [2] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 10 were 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase compared to the same period last month [2] - Due to the unclear Middle - East situation, the oil sector is supported. India's increased procurement has led to a significant increase in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first ten days. The oil sector is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 免责声明 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2026/3/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1992.700 2329.4 | 132.9↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | | +215.30↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2604-EC2606价差 -336.70 -15.60↓ EC2604-EC2608价差 | | | -302.80 | +5.90↑ | | EC合约基差 | -447.24 | -143.80↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 28602 | 797↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 1545.46 82.06↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,121. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience short - term shock adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the support of MA60 [3][4] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 392,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the closing price of the April - May contract for Shanghai tin is - 360 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 50,910 US dollars/ton, an increase of 815 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 33,982 lots, a decrease of 994 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 10,632 lots, an increase of 307 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 8,015 tons, a decrease of 10 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 11,663 tons, a decrease of 590 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 10,031 tons, an increase of 322 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 394,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,750 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 393,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,940 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 6,720 yuan/ton; the import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,600 tons, a decrease of 6,720 tons; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 26 US dollars; the average price of tin concentrates (40%) processing fee is 17,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (40%) is 378,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) is 382,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of tin concentrates (40%) processing fee is 17,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (40%) is 378,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) is 382,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 249,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,780 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] Industry News - Trump said the war with Iran would end "soon" but not this week, and threatened Iran if it blocked oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz; Netanyahu said the action against Iran was not over; Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said Iran's priority was "decisive defense" and the end of the war was in Iran's hands; in the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%, with exports of 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2%, and imports of 3.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.1%; China's imports and exports to the US decreased by 16.9%, while those to ASEAN and the EU increased by about 20%; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action; the State Council proposed the 2026 central and local budget draft, and the 14th National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee suggested preventing special bond repayment risks [3] Key Points of View - On the macro - level, Iran doesn't trust US promises and the military action has entered a new stage, while the US is planning to provide escort and Trump warns Iran not to lay mines. On the fundamental level, on the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, and the shortage of tin ore supply has shown signs of alleviation. At the smelting end, most enterprises' raw material inventories are still low, and most enterprises are at a loss. Coupled with more year - end overhauls, the output of refined tin is still limited, but there is pressure for output to rebound after the Chinese New Year. In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window is gradually opening, and import pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has rebounded to 1,500 yuan/ton; LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has rebounded. Technically, the position has decreased and the price is in a range - bound shock, and the bullish sentiment has declined [3] Key Concerns - No news today [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - USDA raised the global corn inventory forecast to 292.75 million tons, higher than last month's forecast of 288.98 million tons and analysts' previous expectation of 289.19 million tons. The intensifying conflict between the US and Iran led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, pushing up freight rates and boosting international corn market prices. The increase in import prices also had a positive impact on the domestic market [3]. - In the domestic market, the temperature in the Northeast production area has risen comprehensively, increasing the storage pressure of damp grain. The pace of grain sales at the grass - roots level has gradually accelerated, and more grain sources have been transferred to the trading sector. Due to the increase in oil prices and high acquisition costs, the difficulty of transporting Northeast grain outside has increased. Deep - processing enterprises' inventories are continuously consumed, and they are actively replenishing stocks, but the scope of price increases has narrowed [3]. - In the North China and Huanghuai production areas, after the previous concentrated supply, the enthusiasm of grass - roots farmers to sell grain has weakened, the trading activity of grain points is not high, the shipping rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the scale of arrivals at processing enterprises has shrunk. Some enterprises with insufficient arrivals have slightly increased prices to purchase [3]. - As the production of corn starch enterprises gradually recovers after the festival, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has gradually increased, the supply - side pressure has increased, and the inventory is still on the rise. However, downstream demand is also gradually recovering, the signing and shipment of enterprises have improved compared with last week, and the supply - demand structure of corn starch is acceptable. Supported by the relatively strong corn market, the starch market has also shown a relatively strong and volatile trend recently [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2395 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (5 - 9): 14 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2718 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7): 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 1,384,288 lots, up 2,853 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 256,994 lots, down 5,161 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 250,568 lots, down 18,077 lots; for corn starch: - 13,938 lots, up 2,634 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 75,123 lots, up 510 lots; for corn starch: 6,560 lots, down 150 lots [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 317 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 453.75 cents/bushel, up 0.5 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1,617,461 contracts, down 38,674 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions (weekly): 90,059 contracts, compared with 81,231 contracts (no change information provided) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2439.41 yuan/ton, down 0.59 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun: 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2420 yuan/ton, unchanged; ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang: 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged; ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported corn CIF price: 2001.3 yuan/ton, unchanged; international freight for imported corn: 53 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch main contract basis: 82 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; corn main contract basis: 44.41 yuan/ton, down 14.59 yuan/ton; Shandong starch - corn spread (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; cassava starch - corn starch spread (weekly): 657 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; corn starch - 30 - powder spread (daily): - 59 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the US: 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; in Brazil: 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina: 53 million tons, unchanged; in China: 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; in Ukraine: 29 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China: 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares [2]. - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 89.2 tons, up 11.6 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 343.7 tons, down 41.5 tons; corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 200 tons, down 21 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly): 120.9 tons, down 1 ton [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Monthly output of feed: 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons; sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 30.25 days, down 1.04 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 121.95 tons, up 9.46 tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 54.08%, down 0.38%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 55.73%, up 1.21% [2]. - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: 8 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; in Hebei: 107 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jilin: - 21 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [2]. - Monthly import volume of corn: 80 tons, up 24 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.14%, down 0.35%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.42%, up 0.12% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 13.86%, down 2.45%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 13.86%, down 2.45% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of March 7, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 second - season corn was 75.9%, compared with 64.9% last week, 83.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 71.5% [2]. - As of March 7, the harvesting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn was 29.5%, compared with 24.9% last week, 34.5% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 27.3% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for cis - butadiene rubber continues to be strong due to the ongoing impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the continuous strong performance of the domestic butadiene end. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased significantly, while that of trading enterprises has increased slightly. With some device overhauls in late March, the spot - end inventory is expected to decline significantly. The tire enterprise's operating rate has rebounded significantly, but the short - term situation is unstable, and the order shipment resistance in the Middle - East region may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization. The synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 15,615 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 680 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 26,320, with a week - on - week increase of 1,603. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 21,420 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,070 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies has decreased. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 865 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 530 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 87.8 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.16 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) is 841.5 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 970 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) is 1,800 dollars/ton, with no change. The price of WTI crude oil is 83.45 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.32 dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 14,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,850 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 76.28%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 39,100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.58%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.89 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 81.62%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 1,424 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 965 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 43,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 34,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,750 tons; the trader's inventory is 9,020 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 39.47 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.9%, with a week - on - week increase of 36.73 percentage points. The monthly production of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 45.79 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a week - on - week increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a week - on - week increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% and a year - on - year decrease of about 8%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decrease in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 18.80% [2].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2026/3/11 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖 原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,116.00 | +28.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,884.00 | +8.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 605,232.00 | +1109.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 407,629.00 | -2902.00↓ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -75,1 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 14215 | -10 04-05月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -140 | -60 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -3186 | 1584 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 104928 | 6646 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 51474 | -241 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 14950 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 10100 | 150 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 405 | 10 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.14 | 0 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 23861.23 | 11020.74 进口数量:镍铁(月,万吨) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward trend of cotton prices remains unchanged as the downstream consumption is gradually recovering, though new orders are still limited and the pressure on finished product inventory is relatively low. Also, the market is in the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 15,515 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 21,580 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 202,381 hands, up 2,481 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 1,261 hands, up 130 hands - Cotton main contract positions are 743,527 hands, up 21,849 hands; cotton yarn main contract positions are 14,972 hands, up 889 hands - Cotton warehouse receipts are 12,152 sheets, unchanged; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 114 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,668 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,664 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 13,774 yuan/ton - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) to - port price is 21,954 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) to - port price is 23,441 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,332 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, up 13,000 tons - Cotton import volume is 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons - Imported cotton profit is 2,894 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 5.7887 million tons, up 4,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 21.71 days, down 3.41 days; grey cloth inventory days are 33.13 days, down 0.63 days - Cloth output is 3.01 billion meters, up 200 million meters; yarn output is 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 181,872,600 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 303,870,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton is 19.43%, down 1.6%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton is 19.43%, down 1.64% - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.33%, down 0.35%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 13.76%, unchanged [2] Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's March global cotton supply - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton output forecast is 26.3425 million tons, up 246,100 tons from the previous period. Global consumption is reduced by 30,500 tons to 25.8177 million tons, and global ending inventory is increased by 278,700 tons to 16.632 million tons. Import volume is estimated at 9.5603 million tons, and export volume is estimated at 9.5603 million tons, both up from last month - ICE cotton futures rose on Tuesday, supported by a weaker US dollar. The US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report raised the global output forecast and lowered the consumption forecast, limiting the increase. The ICE May cotton futures contract closed up 0.68 cents, or 1.05%, at 65.30 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the loose fundamentals are exerting pressure. However, there is short - term support from geopolitical factors and Two Sessions policies. It is expected that the futures prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate widely [2]. - For coking coal, on the supply side, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, and the operation of coal washing plants continues to increase. On the demand side, the operation of downstream coking enterprises has declined slightly, the coking coal inventory continues to decline, and the coke inventory continues to accumulate, with the profit per ton of coke turning positive [2]. - For coke, on the supply side, the operating load of coking enterprises has been reduced, and the in - plant inventory has continued to accumulate, with the profit per ton of coke turning positive. On the demand side, affected by production restrictions, the operation of steel mills and the molten iron output have declined [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the JM main contract is 1144.50 yuan/ton, up 23.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract is 1718.00 yuan/ton, up 37.50 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The JM futures contract holding volume is 593327.00 lots, down 15322.00 lots; the J futures contract holding volume is 41180.00 lots, down 438.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts is - 82084.00 lots, down 13916.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 J contracts is - 3587.00 lots, up 1156.00 lots [2]. - **Spreads**: The JM 9 - 5 month contract spread is 103.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the J 9 - 5 month contract spread is 75.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The coking coal warehouse receipts are 600.00 pieces, up 300.00 pieces; the coke warehouse receipts are 1310.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal is 1043.00 yuan/ton, down 17.00 yuan; the price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) is 167.50 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 US dollars; the price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1640.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; the price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi is 1387.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Coke**: The price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke is 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The JM main contract basis is 160.50 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan; the J main contract basis is - 53.00 yuan/ton, down 37.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 19.90 million tons, up 3.00 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 288.50 million tons, down 10.40 million tons. The monthly raw coal output is 43703.50 million tons, up 1024.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of coal and lignite is 3094.27 million tons, down 2765.73 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 182.90 million tons, up 31.30 million tons [2]. - **Inventory in Ports and Enterprises**: The weekly inventory of imported coking coal in 16 ports is 485.74 million tons, down 8.70 million tons; the weekly total inventory of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 796.15 million tons, down 33.31 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 18 ports is 270.71 million tons, up 9.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 63.20 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills across the country is 775.64 million tons, down 16.82 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 671.26 million tons, down 3.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Availability Days and Import/Export**: The weekly available days of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 12.41 days, down 0.24 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 12.53 days, up 0.12 days. The monthly import volume of coking coal is 1376.98 million tons, up 303.87 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke is 100.00 million tons, up 28.00 million tons [2]. - **Supply and Production Capacity Utilization**: The monthly total supply of coking coal is 5478.50 million tons, up 238.97 million tons; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 72.29%, down 0.54%; the weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is 17.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; the monthly coke output is 4274.30 million tons, up 104.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Steel Mill Indicators**: The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country is 77.71%, down 2.51%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.32%, down 2.13%; the monthly crude steel output is 6817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the production capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plant samples this week is 31.0%, a 4.4% increase from the previous week; the daily output of clean coal is 23.1 million tons, a 3.2 - million - ton increase from the previous week; the clean coal inventory is 313.6 million tons, a 25.1 - million - ton increase from the previous week [2]. - Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said on the 10th local time that Israel does not seek an "endless war" with Iran and will coordinate with the United States at an appropriate time to decide when to end the military operation against Iran. He did not give a specific timetable for the current military operation and emphasized that Israel will continue the military operation until it and its partners think it is "suitable to stop" [2]. - U.S. President Trump said on the 10th local time that it is possible to negotiate with Iran under certain conditions. Three informed sources revealed that the Trump administration has asked Israel to stop further air strikes on Iranian energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure. This is said to be the first obvious restraint on Israel's military operation by the United States since the joint U.S. - Israeli military operation against Iran began [2].