1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector [9]. - A seller - dominated options portfolio strategy, along with spot hedging or covered strategies, should be constructed to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2511) is 495, with a price increase of 6 and a price change rate of 1.21% [4]. 3.2 Options Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options are provided, along with their changes. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the options underlying market and the timing of market turning points. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.66, with a change of - 0.07, and the open interest PCR is 1.10, with a change of 0.01 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options is 570, and the support level is 480 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 40.31, and the weighted implied volatility is 43.83, with a change of 5.56 [7]. 3.3 Options Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil Options** - **Fundamentals**: OPEC +'s production return plan may exacerbate the supply surplus, but the Russia - Ukraine situation causes supply disruptions. The US EIA apparent demand is weak, and the economic recovery after interest rate cuts needs to be observed [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Since July, crude oil has shown a pattern of weakening, followed by range - bound consolidation, and then a rebound. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates at a level slightly higher than the average. The open interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating some support below. The pressure level is 570, and the support level is 480 [8]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short neutral call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [8]. - **LPG Options** - **Fundamentals**: The maintenance of PDH plants in China is stable, but the profit of PDH plants has declined significantly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will decline after entering the peak season [10]. - **Market Analysis**: LPG has shown a pattern of over - decline and rebound, with pressure above [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4200 [10]. - **Options Strategies**: Similar to crude oil options, construct a short neutral call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol Options** - **Fundamentals**: Port and enterprise inventories of methanol have decreased, and enterprise orders to be delivered have increased due to pre - holiday downstream stocking [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Methanol has shown a weak upward trend with pressure above [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2350, and the support level is 2250 [10]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short bearish call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options** - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to be low and volatile in the short term and may enter a stocking cycle later [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Ethylene glycol has shown a weak downward trend [11]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates slightly below the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4250 [11]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options for directional strategies; construct a short volatility strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene Options** - **Fundamentals**: The inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE, with overall inventory reduction [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Polypropylene has shown a weak downward trend [12]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has decreased to near the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7400, and the support level is 6700 [12]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [12]. 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber Options** - **Fundamentals**: Pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the buying sentiment at home and abroad has weakened, leading to a decline in rubber prices [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Rubber has shown a weak and volatile trend [13]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has risen rapidly and then dropped to near the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has dropped significantly to 17000, and the support level is 14500 [13]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short bearish call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies [13]. 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA Options** - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production and capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA have decreased, and social inventory has decreased [14]. - **Market Analysis**: PTA has shown a weak downward trend [14]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a level slightly higher than the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 5000, and the support level is 4600 [14]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short bearish call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies [14]. 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda Options** - **Fundamentals**: The caustic soda market is stable, with some fluctuations in the liquid caustic soda market and stability in the flake caustic soda market. Some chlor - alkali enterprises have maintenance or under - capacity operation, which has a certain positive impact on local prices [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Caustic soda has shown a downward - trending and volatile pattern [15]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options is at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.90, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2440 [15]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy for directional strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [15]. - **Soda Ash Options** - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased, and the inventory - available days have also decreased [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Soda ash has shown a weak and volatile trend at a low level [15]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options is at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1300, and the support level is 1160 [15]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short volatility combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [15]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - **Fundamentals**: The enterprise and port inventories of urea have increased, and the supply has returned, resulting in a continuous increase in enterprise inventory [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Urea has shown a weak and volatile trend at a low level [16]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1620 [16]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short bearish call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [16].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-09-29 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.40 | 49.30 | 49.10 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.10 | 50.30 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.70 | 11.80 | 12.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the macro factors are bullish, but there is still a probability of short - term OPEC bearish news. When China faces the issue of holiday positions, long - term positions are not considered cost - effective. Short - term long positions in crude oil should be closed, and it is advisable to wait for OPEC's final statement [3]. - For methanol, the supply side has a decline in start - up and lower corporate profits, with subsequent marginal increase in domestic supply. The demand side has an improvement, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall fundamentals have improved marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [6]. - For urea, the futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is currently a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [9]. - For natural rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but it is in a short - term downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders for the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand, and the export expectation is weak. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost side has a neutral supply, and the supply side has an increasing start - up. The seasonal peak season may drive the price to stop falling [20]. - For polyethylene, the cost side has support, and the inventory is decreasing. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price may fluctuate upwards [23]. - For polypropylene, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. There is high inventory pressure, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. - For p - xylene (PX), the load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - For purified terephthalic acid (PTA), the supply side has many unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - For ethylene glycol (EG), the domestic supply is high, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year, and it is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.49%, to 491.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 35.00 yuan/ton, or 1.21%, to 2918.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 40.00 yuan/ton, or 1.16%, to 3475.00 yuan/ton. In Europe, gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories increased, while fuel oil and naphtha inventories decreased [1][2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro factors are bullish, but there is a short - term OPEC bearish risk. Long positions should be closed, and it is advisable to wait for OPEC's statement [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 2 yuan, Inner Mongolia remained flat, and southern Shandong rose by 5 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 1 yuan to 2356 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 105. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3 to - 29 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side has a decline in start - up and lower profits, with subsequent marginal increase in supply. The demand side has an improvement, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable, with a small number of regions seeing price drops. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 5 yuan to 1669 yuan, with a basis of - 69. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 51 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is average. It is currently a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [9]. Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may limit production, the seasonality usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand expectation is improving. Bears think the macro expectation is uncertain, the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the supply improvement may be less than expected. As of September 25, 2025, the all - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.04%, and the semi - steel tire production load was 74.52%. As of September 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 0.1 million tons, or 1% [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The medium - term view is bullish, but it is in a short - term downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders for the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 38 yuan to 4897 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 157 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79%, with an increase of 2%. The downstream start - up rate was 47.8%, with a decrease of 1.5%. Factory inventory and social inventory increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand, and the export expectation is weak. The short - term valuation has dropped to a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [15]. Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6949 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The basis was - 49 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 117.5 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 73.2%, with a decrease of 0.20%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports increased by 2.75 million tons to 18.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted start - up rate was 42.79%, with a decrease of 2.07% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost side has a neutral supply, and the supply side has an increasing start - up. The seasonal peak season may drive the price to stop falling [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The basis was 1 yuan/ton, and the upstream start - up rate was 80.73%, with a decrease of 0.74%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.83 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.96 million tons to 5.10 million tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 43%, with an increase of 0.08% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side has support, and the inventory is decreasing. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price may fluctuate upwards [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6795 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 77.05%, with an increase of 2.32%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 51.45%, with an increase of 0.59% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. There is high inventory pressure, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. P - Xylene (PX) - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 18 yuan to 6656 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 814 dollars. The basis was 20 yuan. The 11 - 1 spread was 22 yuan. The Chinese PX load was 86.7%, with an increase of 0.4%, and the Asian load was 78%, with a decrease of 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or restart delays. The PTA load was 76.8%, with an increase of 0.9%. The PXN was 209 dollars, and the naphtha crack spread was 104 dollars [28][29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 32 yuan to 4646 yuan. The East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4590 yuan. The basis was - 74 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan. The PTA load was 76.8%, with an increase of 0.9%. The downstream load was 90.3%, with a decrease of 1.1%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 1.1 million tons to 209 million tons. The spot processing fee rose 19 yuan to 211 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 14 yuan to 294 yuan [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side has many unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 33 yuan to 4213 yuan. The East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4294 yuan. The basis was 61 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 63 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.1%, with a decrease of 0.7%. The downstream load was 90.3%, with a decrease of 1.1%. The port inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 46.7 million tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 708 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 713 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 617 yuan [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year, and it is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with less rainfall in production areas, raw materials are expected to increase, but raw material prices may decline, and the cost - side support will weaken. Demand will drop during the holiday, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - For butadiene rubber, the upstream of cis - butadiene rubber still has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after the raw material replenishment by downstream. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Thailand glue is 54.80 Thai baht/kg, cup - lumps is 51.05 Thai baht/kg, Yunnan glue is 14,600 yuan/ton, Hainan glue is 14,500 yuan/ton. RU basis is - 820 yuan/ton, NR basis is 836 yuan/ton, BR basis is - 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market is 14,650 yuan/ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed is 14,850 yuan/ton, Thai 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,860 US dollars/ton, Indonesian 20 standard rubber is 1,750 US dollars/ton, and Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price is 11,700 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: The inbound rate of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 8.50%, the general trade inbound rate is 9.62%, and the bonded warehouse inbound rate is 2.47%. The high - cis butadiene rubber operating rate is 66.41%, and the output is 26,665 tons [1] - **Production Profit**: The production profit of Thai STR20 is - 221.00 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 2,622.00 yuan/ton, cis - butadiene rubber is - 225 yuan/ton, and carbon - four extraction butadiene is 1,861.10 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of all - steel tires is 66.39%, semi - steel tires is 72.64%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province is 39.16 days, and semi - steel tires is 46.15 days [2] - **Inventory**: The natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons, the social inventory is 1,112,557 tons, the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 149,420 tons, and the NR futures inventory is 42,942 tons. The upstream butadiene port inventory is 27,750 tons, the cis - butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory is 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory is 5,700 tons [2] Market Analysis - **Natural Rubber**: With less rainfall in production areas, raw materials will increase, but prices may fall. During the holiday, demand will decline, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The upstream of cis - butadiene rubber has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after raw material replenishment. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Strategy - RU and NR are neutral. The tight spot price pattern remains, but inventory de - stocking may slow. The valuation is low, and the downside space is limited after the new state reserve release news [4] - BR is neutral. Supply - side support exists due to device maintenance. Demand will decline during the holiday. High inventory may lead to a slight decline following natural rubber [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 11,600 in the short - term [7]. - The prices of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market in China showed a narrow and weak oscillation this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,450 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable [8]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. The overall supply of cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. The external supply of raw material butadiene has increased this week, and there is a lack of positive factors in terms of cost and supply. Some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of resources from Sinopec and PetroChina will be lowered. The inventory of producers has slightly increased, while that of traders has decreased. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream terminals may gradually pick up goods, and the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly [8]. - This week, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory. The overall operation was mainly adjusted slightly. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance state in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will have a significant impact on the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 11,600 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The prices of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a narrow and weak oscillation, with the spot price ranging from 11,450 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, with the mainstream ex - factory price ranging from 11,700 to 11,800 yuan/ton as of September 25, 2025 [8]. - Market outlook: Supply is sufficient, cost and supply lack positive factors, producer inventory has slightly increased, and trader inventory has decreased. As the holiday approaches, downstream terminals may pick up goods, and overall enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly. Tire enterprises mostly maintained previous operating levels, with overall slight adjustments. Some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance, which will impact next week's capacity utilization rate [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.13% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided other than the topic of "cis - butadiene rubber top 20 position changes". - Inter - delivery spread: As of September 26, the spread between the 11th and 12th contracts of butadiene rubber was 20 [18]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of September 26, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,670 tons, an increase of 60 tons from last week [21]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of September 25, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - Basis: As of September 25, the basis of butadiene rubber was 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of September 25, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 608.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.58 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of September 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48% from last week, and the port inventory was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons from last week [31]. 3.3.2. Industry - Cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization: In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of September 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.32% from last week [34]. - Production profit: As of September 25, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,420 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons from last week [41]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire operating rate: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain previous operating levels [44]. - Tire exports: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, the cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [47]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Market Overview - The rubber sector experienced a decline of 1.75% on September 26, with Tian Tie Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] Stock Performance - Zhen An Technology saw a significant increase of 8.95%, closing at 23.37, with a trading volume of 343,000 shares and a transaction value of 800.3 million [1] - Tian Tie Technology reported a sharp decline of 7.95%, closing at 7.99, with a trading volume of 460,700 shares and a transaction value of 381 million [2] - Other notable performers included Ke Long New Materials, which increased by 1.26%, and Shuangjian Co., which rose by 0.76% [1] Capital Flow - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 348 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 202 million [2] - The data indicates that retail investors are actively participating in the market despite the overall decline in the sector [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Hai Da Co. had a net inflow of 11.75 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 12.81 million from retail investors [3] - Zhen An Technology had a net inflow of 9.76 million from institutional investors but saw a net outflow of 12.10 million from retail investors [3] - Shuangjian Co. experienced a net inflow of 1.95 million from retail investors, despite a net outflow from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a weak performance with a downward trend, as indicated by the main contract trading at 11,505.00 CNY/ton and a decline of approximately 0.78% [1] - Southwest Futures predicts that synthetic rubber prices will remain volatile this week, supported by cost but hindered by weak demand and high inventory levels [1] - The supply side shows that the capacity utilization rate for China's high cis-butadiene rubber industry is around 73%, which is relatively high year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Ruida Futures notes that domestic supply of solution-styrene butadiene rubber is sufficient due to the resumption of production from previously shut down facilities, leading to an increase in domestic output [2] - As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream demand may gradually increase, with expectations of a slight decrease in overall inventory levels for enterprises [2] - Green DGH Futures highlights a weakening trading atmosphere as the holiday nears, with limited movement in the spot market for solution-styrene butadiene rubber, suggesting a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term [2]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material output is smooth, the upper edge of the range should adopt a short - selling strategy; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to continue to run within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the full - milk basis was - 820 yuan/ton, up 12.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,850 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.10 Thai baht/kg, and the price of glue decreased by 0.50 Thai baht/kg [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was 55 yuan/ton, down 26.67%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, up 11.11% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, up 1.61%; Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09%; India's production was 45,000 tons, down 2.17%; China's production was 101,300 tons, down 1.30%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58%, down 0.08%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295,400 tons, up 9.10%, and tire export volume was 63,010,000 pieces, down 5.46%. In July, the total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In August, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 660,000 tons, up 4.76% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.07%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased, and the outbound rate decreased [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern, with a position volume of only about 12,000 lots, and the market maintains a narrow - range oscillation around 800. As the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, follow - up attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. In the current "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, the strategy suggests seizing opportunities to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26th, the 2511 log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the benchmark delivery product remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Shandong being 750 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 770 yuan/cubic meter [2]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.119, and the import theoretical cost was 799.14 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.11 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [2]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3.87%, and the number of ships decreased by 6.38%. The main port inventory in China decreased by 3.31% week - on - week [2]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume decreased by 5% week - on - week, with the average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [2]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Fundamentally, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. At the same time, the inventory in the downstream component segment is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that before the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price will mainly remain range - bound, with a possible fluctuation range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry stockpiling will have specific schedules and implementation details, as well as the actual operating rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and track the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52,550 yuan/ton, up 0.10%; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 2.02%; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 5.80% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price was 21,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 91.80%, and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 3.34% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 13.78 GW, down 1.01%; the polysilicon production was 31,100 tons, up 0.32%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, up 23.31%; the polysilicon import volume was 100 tons, down 9.63%; the polysilicon export volume was 300 tons, up 40.12% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, up 10.78%; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.23 GW, down 3.79%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt was 7,880 lots, up 0.38% [3]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance gradually turns to a loose state. The expectation of batch production cuts by silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry water period is at the end of October, so the expected loose balance at the supply peak in October is more obvious and narrows again in November. At the same time, the cost increase during the flat - dry water period in the southwest raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to oscillation again, with the main price fluctuation range likely to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On September 25th, the price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,550 yuan/ton; the price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 390 yuan/ton, up 1.27%; the spread between 2512 - 2601 was 25 yuan/ton, down 28.57% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, up 14.01%; the production in Xinjiang was 169,700 tons, up 12.91%; the production in Yunnan was 58,100 tons, up 41.19%; the production in Sichuan was 53,700 tons, up 10.72%. The national operating rate was 52.61%, up 3.26% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the inventory in Sichuan increased by 3.06%. The social inventory remained unchanged, the contract inventory increased by 0.28%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.24% [4]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has continued to trade in a narrow range, influenced by news and sentiment. The fundamental oversupply problem persists. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually shifted to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an oversupply compared to the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. The implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants can be tracked. The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling positions established on rallies can be held [5]. - **Glass**: Rumors about a glass enterprise meeting have driven the market sentiment to rise significantly. The news and speculation about "calling for industry price increases" and "anti - involution" should be viewed rationally as they cannot be confirmed for now. The glass market has seen a significant increase in positions and prices in the past two days due to news - driven factors. The sharp rebound in the glass market has led to an increase in spot prices, with some regional enterprises raising their prices by up to 100 yuan/ton, and the spot market trading has become active again, with the production - sales ratio exceeding 100%. However, the intermediate inventory in some regions remains high and shows no obvious signs of reduction. In the long - term, the real estate market is at the bottom of the cycle, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity to solve the oversupply problem. In the short - term, the sentiment - driven market has led to a temporary improvement in the spot market, and its sustainability needs to be tracked. As the National Day approaches, the pre - holiday macro sentiment is positive, and the glass industry does not have the driving force for continuous negative feedback for now, so excessive short - selling is not recommended. After the holiday, the actual implementation of policies in various regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period need to be tracked [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China increased by 4.31%, 4.88%, 4.35%, and 4.80% respectively. The prices of glass 2505 and glass 2509 increased by 1.99% and 1.54% respectively [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and soda ash 2509 increased by 0.72% and 0.79% respectively [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the weekly production of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 0.47%, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area were - 0.09%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, and - 6.55% respectively [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the overall fundamentals are improving marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - Regarding urea, it is currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers. It is suggested to pay attention to long positions on dips [8] - For rubber, maintain a medium - term bullish view. Temporarily wait and look for opportunities after the holiday. Those holding long positions during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [15] - For styrene, the price may stop falling as the seasonal peak season drives downstream operations and port inventories decline [19] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward as the long - term contradiction shifts and the seasonal peak season approaches [21] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and there is no prominent contradiction [24] - For PX, the inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to short on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [33] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Market Information - INE main crude oil futures rose 8.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.72%, to 490.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 37.00 yuan/ton, or 1.30%, to 2887.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 53.00 yuan/ton, or 1.56%, to 3450.00 yuan/ton [1] - US EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, including a 0.61 - million - barrel decrease in commercial crude oil inventories to 414.75 million barrels [1] Strategy Viewpoint - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Methanol Market Information - The price in Taicang dropped 3 yuan/ton, while Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained flat. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 5 yuan/ton to 2356 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 4 to - 32, showing a low - level oscillation [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The supply - side production declined, and enterprise profits decreased. The domestic supply is expected to increase marginally. The demand - side port olefin plants restarted and the load increased. The overall demand improved marginally. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] Urea Market Information - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable, with a slight decline in some areas. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 1 yuan/ton to 1674 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 73 [7] - The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 2 to - 53 [7] Strategy Viewpoint - The futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The domestic supply has recovered, and the demand is average. The market sentiment is weak, and enterprise inventories are rising. It is currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers. It is suggested to pay attention to long positions on dips [8] Rubber Market Information - The rubber price was weak. The market expected a 62,000 - ton state reserve release. From September 16, 2025, the RU position structure changed. A super typhoon may have a positive impact, and the EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation laws [10] - As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tire enterprises in Shandong was 64.96%, and that of semi - steel tire enterprises was 74.58%. As of September 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1235,000 tons [11] Strategy Viewpoint - Maintain a medium - term bullish view. Temporarily wait and look for opportunities after the holiday. Those holding long positions during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12] PVC Market Information - The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4919 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 179 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton [14] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a 3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 49.2%, a 1.7% increase. Factory inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.9 million tons [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [15] Styrene Market Information - The cost - side pure benzene price remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6958 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [18] - The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, a 1.6% decrease. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.75 million tons to 18.65 million tons. The downstream "Three S" weighted operating rate was 45.44%, a 0.46% increase [18] Strategy Viewpoint - The price may stop falling as the seasonal peak season drives downstream operations and port inventories decline [19] Polyethylene Market Information - The main contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7175 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.73%, a 0.74% decrease [20] - The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.83 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.96 million tons to 5.10 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 43%, a 0.08% increase [20] Strategy Viewpoint - The price may fluctuate upward as the long - term contradiction shifts and the seasonal peak season approaches [21] Polypropylene Market Information - The main contract closed at 6898 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6795 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 77.05%, a 2.32% increase [23] - The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, a 0.59% increase [23] Strategy Viewpoint - There is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and there is no prominent contradiction [24] PX Market Information - The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6602 yuan. The PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 812 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 86.3%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian load was 78.2%, a 0.8% decrease [26] - PTA load was 75.9%, a 0.9% decrease. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 5.6 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of July decreased by 24 million tons month - on - month [27] Strategy Viewpoint - The inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] PTA Market Information - The PTA01 contract rose 70 yuan to 4626 yuan. The East China spot price rose 55 yuan to 4525 yuan. The PTA load was 75.9%, a 0.9% decrease [29] - The downstream load was 91.4%, a 0.2% decrease. The social inventory on September 19 increased by 1.1 million tons [29] Strategy Viewpoint - The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [30] Ethylene Glycol Market Information - The EG01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4234 yuan. The East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4301 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, a 1.1% decrease [32] - The downstream load was 91.4%, a 0.2% decrease. The port inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 46.7 million tons [32] Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to short on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [33]