策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于本周美国农业部报告预期偏空，短期美豆在缺乏天气题材和出口低迷的拖累下，期价持续 承压于 1000 美分整数关口。国内豆类市场内强外弱格局持续，交易围绕近弱远强的供应预期和成本推动 展开，远期大豆成本抬升构成豆粕价格的重要支撑，短期豆粕期价有望保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts in autumn, winter, and spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which need to be prevented in advance. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary According to Data 1. Price and Spread - **Ex - market Quotes**: The prices of US sugar and US cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.34%, in Kunming by 0.09%, the cotton index 328 by 0.09%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3]. - **Price Spreads**: All price spreads and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 2. Import and Profit - **Import Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.32% [3]. - **Profit Space**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged from August 7th to 8th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 3. Option and Warehouse Receipt - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF509C13600, and CF509P13600 are 0.0874, 0.0855, 0.0923, and 0.0923 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF509 are 5.93 and 7.78 respectively [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% [3]. Company Introduction - **General Information**: CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [8]. - **Exchange Membership**: It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].

Group 1 - The Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on August 8, with corn at $4.06 per bushel, down 1.5 cents (0.37%), wheat at $5.15 per bushel, down 3.75 cents (0.72%), and soybeans at $9.88 per bushel, down 6.25 cents (0.63%) [1] - The market's focus shifted back to the significant production potential of U.S. corn and soybeans, influenced by favorable growing conditions, which severely impacted prices due to expectations of ample supply [1] - Analysts anticipate the upcoming USDA global supply and demand report to indicate a soybean production estimate of 4.365 billion bushels for the 2025/26 season, an increase from the previous estimate of 4.335 billion bushels in July [1] Group 2 - Weather forecasts predict increased rainfall in the central and eastern Midwest regions of the U.S., with a high-pressure ridge moving from the southwest to the southeast, allowing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to flow into the central U.S. [2] - Temperatures in the central U.S. are expected to be near or slightly above normal levels until August 15 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is in a game between short - term supply surplus and uncertainty of future ship purchases. The recent favorable rainfall in Canada and potential resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade add supply pressure. High - frequency data shows an increase in July palm oil production and a decline in exports, but positive news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sectors boosts the oil market. In China, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, yet reduced mill operating rates and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The market is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is supported by concerns about trade policies and low near - month rapeseed arrivals, while being suppressed by high US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏. The market is volatile, and investors are advised to take a bullish view and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Strategy Suggestion**: Short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 9574 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Favorable rainfall in Canada and potential Sino - Australian trade resumption add supply pressure. High - frequency data on palm oil is mixed, and in China, the off - season consumption, ample supply, and high inventory pressure are offset by reduced mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases [9]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy Suggestion**: A bullish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [11]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 2773 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: High US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏 suppress the market, while trade policy concerns and low near - month rapeseed arrivals provide support [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 140,480 lots, down 48,633 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed up, with a total position of 356,167 lots, down 63,512 lots from the previous week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were + 21,321, an increase from last week's + 17,912. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures were + 22,737, an increase from last week's + 16,688 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,487 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 9,063 lots [26][27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week, and the basis was + 126 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,660 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis was - 113 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was + 13 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was + 267 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [46]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 09 contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.45, and the average spot price ratio was 3.647 [49]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,174 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 594 yuan/ton, with narrow - range fluctuations. The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 335 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 272 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industry Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 100,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 490,000 tons, 530,000 tons, and 395,000 tons respectively [71]. - **Supply - Side Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 7, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 662 yuan/ton [75]. - **Supply - Side Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 31st week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 15.17% [79]. - **Supply - Side Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 424,300 tons (69.69%) and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [83]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 786,000 tons, unchanged from last week with a 0.03% month - on - month decline. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,800 tons (23.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [87]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476,900 tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [91]. - **Demand - Side Weekly Contract Volume Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 128,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons (10.05%) from last week [95]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Weekly Inventory Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 23,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons (35.29%) from last week [99]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume Change**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35,600 tons (15.17%) and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [103]. - **Demand - Side Monthly Feed Output Comparison**: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,762,100 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 24.93% as of August 1, up 3.56% from last week, at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [110].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.33%, reaching 28.8288 points, showing an upward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.43%, priced at $4.07 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.70%, priced at $5.1825 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures gained 0.96%, priced at $9.9450 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 1.47% and soybean oil futures decreased by 0.29% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. International cotton prices lack a clear driving force and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. In China, inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market may still be in an increasing production cycle. Brazilian sugar production is accelerating, which will suppress raw sugar futures prices. The upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, with short - term range - bound fluctuations, a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, and increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] - **Pulp**: The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp than coniferous pulp. The demand side is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9][10] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,089 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,191 yuan/ton, a change of + 13 yuan/ton. In Brazil, as of August 1, the cotton picking progress in Mato Grosso was 18.3%, 16.4 percentage points behind the same period last year. On August 6, the local cotton price was 73.07 cents/pound, up 1.1% from the previous day and down 3.8% from the high in early July [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather story is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season may be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton sown area is higher than expected, the drought has improved, and export contracts are weak, so the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, imports in the third quarter are expected to be low, and there is an expectation of tight inventory before the new cotton is listed. However, the new cotton is growing well with a strong production - increasing expectation, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Considering the sufficient supply of the global cotton market in the new year, there is no continuous upward driving force in the long - term industrial end. Zhengzhou cotton should be treated with a pressure - bearing and volatile mindset in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton, a change of - 16 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 80, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.5777 million tons, a 0.69% increase from the previous week [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the first half of July accelerated, and the sugar - making ratio was at a historical high. The supply outlook is improving, and raw sugar is in a weak shock. The new sugar production estimates in India and Thailand are optimistic, and the global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. In the third quarter, the peak crushing season in Brazil will suppress raw sugar futures prices. Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is low. However, the expected increase in imports will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, with a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but there is an increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - term trend should be treated with a bearish mindset [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,186 yuan/ton, a change of + 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The import pulp spot market price was stable [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, and more pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory removal is slow, and there is still supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. In China, affected by the off - season, the demand is weak, the finished paper inventory pressure is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and there is no positive driving force in the industrial chain. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [10]

Research Views - Corn is expected to fluctuate weakly. On Thursday, the September contract of corn stabilized with a technical rebound, and the night - session price continued to rise. The national corn price was weak, with the domestic average price at 2388 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The short - term resistance for the September contract is at 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the medium - term outlook is weak [2]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose due to low - price - stimulated demand. The net sales of US soybeans last week were 101.28 million tons, higher than expected. In the domestic market, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose, and the night - session rapeseed meal increased by over 2%. The strategy is to hold long positions in soybean meal and participate in 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell due to increased inventory and production and weak demand. In the domestic market, the three major oils showed a strong trend. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [2]. - The price of eggs is expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of eggs rose slightly by 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future. However, the short - term market sentiment is bearish [2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate strongly. On Thursday, the live pig futures continued to rebound. The spot price decreased due to oversupply. Policy support exists, and short - term long positions can be held cautiously [3]. Market Information - Fed Governor Waller is becoming a top candidate for Fed Chair as Trump's advisers search for Powell's successor [4]. - As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [4]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, up from 7.98 million tons last year [4]. - The US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 468,000 tons, and the 2025/2026 net sales were 545,000 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean No.1, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report provides charts on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][18][24][26].

油料日报 | 2025-08-08 天气与政策窗口期下，新旧作物交替影响显现 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4134.00元/吨，较前日变化+16.00元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+166，较前日变化-16，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆价格稳定。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/ 斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳 木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一市场呈现温和回升态势。市场焦点集中于周五中储粮计划开展的大豆单向拍卖活动，同时关内地区持续 关注降雨天气对新季大豆生长的影响。关外主产区大豆价格保持稳定。受季节性消费淡季及新豆上市预期影 ...

北京时间8月8日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格小幅震荡，今日开盘报53.55美分/磅，现报每 吨53.46美分/磅，涨幅0.02%，盘中最高触及53.65美分/磅，最低下探53.43美分/磅。 【豆油市场消息速递】 8月7日，阿根廷豆油(9月船期)C&F价格1141美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调12美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(11 月船期)C&F价格1120美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调21美元/吨。 8月7日：全国一级豆油成交量12000吨，环比上个交易日减少77.14%。 8月7日，大商所豆油期货仓单15370手，环比上个交易日增加3830手。 豆油期货行情回顾： 8月7日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美豆油 53.66 53.83 53.22 53.42 -0.43% ...

商 品 研 究 豆粕：出口较好、美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 豆一：移仓换月，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4134 | +16（+0.39%） 4127 -1 | （-0.02%） | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2509 | 3031 | +4（+0.13%） 3036 | +16（+0.53%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 994.5 | +9.25（+0.94%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.2 +4.1 | n a （+1.46%） | | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | 2950～3000， 较昨-20至持平； M2509-60， 持平； | 现货基差M2509-100/-60/-30 ...