Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo oscillatory adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the support at MA60. The macro - situation is tense with the US - Iran conflict. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' profits increase, and the export window closes again. The demand side is in the off - season, with the real estate sector being a drag, and some policy - supported sectors like automobiles showing bright spots. Technically, the position decreases and the price adjusts, with cautious trading between bulls and bears [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,385 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,342 dollars/ton, up 16 dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 174,806 lots, up 73 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,394 lots, up 258 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 134,921 tons, up 8,869 tons; the LME inventory is 98,950 tons, up 4,150 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,290 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,300 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the basis of the ZN main contract is - 95 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 33.45 dollars/ton, down 5.24 dollars; the ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,810 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons; the ILZSG global monthly zinc mine production is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic monthly refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons; the monthly zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons; the weekly zinc social inventory is 218,400 tons, up 5,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the daily implied volatility of zinc at - the - money call options is 27.77%, down 1.14 percentage points; the daily implied volatility of zinc at - the - money put options is 27.77%, down 1.14 percentage points; the daily 20 - day historical volatility of zinc at - the - money options is 23.41%, down 2.89 percentage points; the daily 60 - day historical volatility of zinc at - the - money options is 20.33%, down 0.28 percentage points [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said the war with Iran would end "soon" but not this week, and threatened Iran. Netanyahu said the action against Iran was "not over". Iran's deputy foreign minister said Iran's priority was "decisive defense". In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action. The State Council proposed the 2026 central and local budget draft, and the 14th National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee suggested preventing special bond repayment risks [3].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the Shanghai nickel industry dated March 11, 2026, provided by Ruida Futures [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 140,000 yuan level and the support of MA60 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 137,160 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 110 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread is - 460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,558 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 114 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 210,843 lots, with a daily decrease of 681 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 67,001 lots, with a daily decrease of 256 lots; LME nickel inventory is 287,088 tons, with a daily decrease of 330 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 61,769 tons (weekly), with an increase of 978 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 20,412 tons, with a daily decrease of 678 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 54,341 tons, with a daily decrease of 309 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 139,750 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,850 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 139,850 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,550 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with no change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,750 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the NI main contract is 2,590 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,960 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 208.36 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, with a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 924.33 million tons (weekly), with a decrease of 78.41 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, with no change [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 99.61 million tons, with an increase of 10.07 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, with an increase of 0.1109 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 645,600 tons, with a decrease of 6,700 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump said the war with Iran would "soon" end but not this week. Netanyahu said the action against Iran was "not over". Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said Iran's priority was "decisive defense" [3] - In the first two months of this year, China's total foreign trade value was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1%. China's trade with the US decreased by 16.9%, while that with ASEAN and the EU increased by about 20% [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action, carrying out pilot projects on high - quality industry data set construction for AI empowerment [3] - The 2026 central and local budget draft shows that the national debt limit is 48.5508 trillion yuan, the local government general debt limit is 18.8689 trillion yuan, and the special debt limit is 44.3185 trillion yuan [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroscopically, Iran doesn't trust US promises and the military action has entered a new stage. The US is planning to escort and Trump warns Iran not to lay mines [3] - Fundamentally, the nickel ore import volume is decreasing as the Philippines enters the rainy season. Indonesia's RKAB plan may increase the quota by 25% - 30%, which can meet domestic demand and ease supply concerns [3] - In the smelting sector, domestic refined nickel production capacity is large. With the nickel price fluctuating and production profit available, the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3] - On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, production is resuming after the holiday, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are rising, bringing a small increase in demand for ternary batteries [3] - Domestically, the growth of nickel inventory has slowed down, the market buys on dips, and the spot premium is stable. Overseas, LME inventory is stable, and the spot premium has decreased [3] - Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is adjusting, and the trading between long and short positions has become less active [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. Currently in the off - season of aquaculture demand, the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with expectations, with limited impact on the market. Driven by the rise of US soybeans, rapeseed meal continues to rise, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in international oil prices have promoted the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel, and the external oil market has significantly supported the domestic market. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure. However, the market has already anticipated this, with limited impact on the market. Recently, the market is trading on the biodiesel demand drive, and the rapeseed oil futures price has also fallen from its high due to the decline in international oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9778 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2480 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 722 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 6049 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 117 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 253,670 hands, down 4131 hands; rapeseed meal is 652,140 hands, down 65,210 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 12,200 hands, down 381 hands; rapeseed meal is - 107,842 hands, up 27,909 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 1125 sheets; rapeseed meal is 2311 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8840 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9530 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 10,435 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 5395.43 yuan/ton, down 63.96 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 632 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 140 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1570 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 630 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import quantity: 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is 33 yuan/ton, up 117 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 200,000 tons, unchanged; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, up 4.8 percentage points [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 220,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; imports of rapeseed meal: 238,200 tons, up 23,500 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 60,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 15,000 tons, up 8500 tons [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 255,500 tons, down 5500 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory: 80,500 tons, down 12,400 tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 0 tons, down 80,000 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory: 283,000 tons, down 15,000 tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量: - 1800 tons, down 1800 tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量: 5400 tons, up 5400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: 30.086 million tons, up 307,000 tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail: 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: 5.254 million tons, up 606,000 tons [2]. Option Market - Rapeseed meal: Implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.65%, down 3.95 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.65%, down 3.94 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 16.75%, up 0.76 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 16.35%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - Rapeseed oil: Implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.86%, down 5 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, down 4.96 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 19.27%, down 0.36 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 20.13%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On March 10 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell along with other vegetable oils due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. The most actively traded May contract fell 6.30 Canadian dollars, settling at 720.10 Canadian dollars per ton; the July contract fell 6.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 729 Canadian dollars; the November contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars, settling at 714.10 Canadian dollars [2]. - There are strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, and as the Brazilian harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. The market hopes that the Sino - US negotiations can make a breakthrough. Affected by the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the US soybean biodiesel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing will support the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - Statistics Canada's survey shows that the total intended rapeseed planting area in Canada in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres of traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - On March 11, Treasury bond futures weakened across the board, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.19% respectively. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.46%. In the domestic fundamental aspect, China's exports increased significantly in the first two months of 2026. The CPI rose unexpectedly in February, and the PPI's year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The official manufacturing PMI weakened in February, but the service industry PMI rebounded seasonally. In terms of policy, the central government's borrowing scale in 2026 is higher than that of local governments. Overseas, the geopolitical situation in the US - Iran conflict is uncertain, and the risk of "stagflation - like" in the US economy is rising. Overall, the pressure on the bond market adjustment intensifies, and it is expected that the interest rate will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T main contract closed at 108.260, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 59,789, down 35,249; TF main contract closed at 105.945, down 0.03%, with a trading volume of 54,976, down 14,501; TS main contract closed at 102.450, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 28,051, down 414; TL main contract closed at 111.250, down 0.19%, with a trading volume of 70,320, down 29,627 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: TL2606 - 2603 spread was 0.10, down 0.01; T06 - TL06 spread was - 2.99, up 0.19; T2606 - 2603 spread was - 0.07, down 0.04; TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.32, up 0.02; TF2606 - 2603 spread was - 0.03, down 0.08; TS06 - T06 spread was - 5.81, up 0.04; TS2606 - 2603 spread was 0.00, up 0.02; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.49, up 0.02 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T main contract open interest was 289,768, down 3,836; TF main contract open interest was 163,997, down 246; TS main contract open interest was 71,442, up 671; TL main contract open interest was 130,349, up 665 [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 230012.IB, 250025.IB, etc. all showed a downward trend [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.50bp, 0.15bp, 0.40bp, 0.10bp, and 0.10bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Overnight silver pledge rate was 1.3630, up 4.90bp; Shibor overnight was 1.3670, up 4.90bp; 7 - day silver pledge rate was 1.4757, up 4.24bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.4600, up 2.80bp; 14 - day silver pledge rate was 1.4800, down 2.40bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.5000, up 0.80bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 26.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 40.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day period, and the net investment was - 14 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2% year - on - year, and imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1% year - on - year [2]. - In 2026, China plans to issue 11.89 trillion yuan of new government debt, including 6.69 trillion yuan of national debt issued by the central government, accounting for about 56.3% of the total new government debt, and 5.2 trillion yuan of local government bonds issued by local governments, accounting for about 43.7% [2][3]. - US President Trump said the war with Iran might end soon, but Iran emphasized the end of the war was up to them, and the geopolitical situation was still uncertain [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.73%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 0.41%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.19%, and Palladium's main contract closed with a change of 0.07%. The short - term safe - haven situation is that trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normalized. The US employment is weak while inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, with a strong US dollar index. The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have led to a global chain reaction, with the world facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle - East conflict may be long - term. The US employment in February unexpectedly decreased and the unemployment rate rose, challenging the Fed's view of a stable labor market. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of interest rate hikes is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing an end, and the next cut may be in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and falling. The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; palladium's short - term demand still has resilience, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be strongly volatile in the short term, weakly volatile at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]. - **Price Data**: Comex gold active contract closed at $5198.70 per ounce, up 0.97% from the previous day and 1.95% from last week; London gold closed at $5209.70 per ounce, up 2.43% from the previous day and 3.50% from last week; Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) closed at 1151.98 yuan per gram, up 0.17% from the previous day and down 0.09% from last week; Gold T + D (SGE) closed at 1150.30 yuan per gram, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 0.23% from last week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold position was 409,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), up 0.67% from last week; Shanghai Gold's main contract position (SHFE) was 107,728 lots (1 kg per lot), down 3.61% from the previous day and 14.78% from last week; Gold T + D position (SGE) was 45,964 lots (1 kg per lot), down 0.38% from the previous day and up 1.92% from last week. LBMA inventory was 9,158 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,048 tons, down 1.48% from last week; Shanghai Gold (SHFE) inventory was 105 tons, unchanged [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [4]. - **Price Data**: Comex silver active contract closed at $88.57 per ounce, up 1.40% from the previous day and 7.62% from last week; London silver closed at $88.53 per ounce, up 6.09% from the previous day and 8.88% from last week; Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) closed at 22,256 yuan per kg, down 2.21% from the previous day and up 1.84% from last week; Silver T + D (SGE) closed at 21,999 yuan per kg, down 1.31% from the previous day and up 2.03% from last week [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver position was 113,326 lots (5000 ounces per lot), down 9.67% from last week; Shanghai Silver's main contract position (SHFE) was 3,065,280 lots (1 kg per lot), up 2.16% from the previous day and 20.34% from last week; Silver T + D position (SGE) was 2,860,266 lots (1 kg per lot), down 1.11% from the previous day and 3.94% from last week. LBMA inventory was 27,065 tons, down 2.70% from last week; Comex silver inventory was 10,739 tons, down 2.78% from last week; Shanghai Silver (SHFE) inventory was 253 tons, down 18.12% from last week; SGE silver inventory was 372 tons, down 16.41% from last week; total visible inventory was 38,432 tons, down 1.11% from last week [4]. Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [6]. - **Price Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and 7.74% from last week; London platinum closed at $2138.00 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week; Platinum's main contract (GFEX) closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and 1.25% from last week; Platinum (SGE) closed at 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and 0.20% from last week [6]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract position was 51,840 lots (50 ounces per lot), down 1.43% from the previous day and 0.93% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons, down 0.89% from last week [6]. Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [7]. - **Price Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and 5.85% from last week; London palladium closed at $1727.00 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and 3.91% from last week; Palladium's main contract (GFEX) closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week [7]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract position was 4,266 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 24.12% from the previous day and 57.68% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory was 6 tons, down 0.32% from last week [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **US Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous period; the discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous period; the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous period; the Fed's total assets are $6,679.427 billion, up 0.00% from the previous period; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.29%, up 0.36% from the previous period; the ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.48%, up 0.40% from the previous day and 3.33% from last week; the US dollar index is 98.93, up 0.22% from the previous day and down 0.35% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.13, down 0.00% from the previous day and 65.38% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.46, up 21.05% from the previous day and 53.33% from last week; the US - Europe yield spread (ten - year Treasury) is 1.58, up 2.60% from the previous day and 100.00% from last week; the US - China yield spread (ten - year Treasury) is 2.91, up 1.49% from the previous day and 2.40% from last week [8]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, down 0.30% from the previous period; CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, up 0.10% from the previous period; core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, down 0.10% from the previous period; core CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, up 0.40% from the previous period; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.90%, up 0.08% from the previous period; core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.00%, up 0.17% from the previous period; the University of Michigan's 1 - year inflation expectation is 3.40%, down 0.60% from the previous period; the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.30%, unchanged from the previous period [8]. - **US Economic Growth Indicators**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.50%, up 0.10% from the previous period; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 1.40%, down 3.00% from the previous period; the unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10% from the previous period; non - farm payrolls monthly change is - 92,000, down 2.18% from the previous period; the labor force participation rate is 61.90%, up 0.20% from the previous period; the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80%, up 0.10% from the previous period; weekly working hours are 34.30 hours, unchanged from the previous period; ADP employment is 63,000, up 52,000 from the previous period; the initial jobless claims for the week are 213,000, unchanged from the previous period; job vacancies are 6,038,000, unchanged from the previous period; Challenger job cuts are 48,300, down 60,100 from the previous period; the NAHB housing market index is 36.00, down 2.70% from the previous period [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: Existing home sales are 4.09 million units, unchanged; new home sales are 570,000 units, up 7.02% from the previous period; new home starts are 1.022 million units, unchanged [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales year - on - year growth is 2.08%, down 0.95% from the previous period; retail sales month - on - month growth is 0.03%, up 0.20% from the previous period; personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth is 4.68%, down 0.59% from the previous period; personal consumption expenditure month - on - month growth is 0.43%, up 0.05% from the previous period; the personal savings as a percentage of disposable income is 3.60%, down 0.10% from the previous period [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index year - on - year growth is 2.28%, up 0.98% from the previous period; the industrial production index month - on - month growth is 0.70%, up 0.45% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate is 76.21%, up 0.47% from the previous period; new orders for durable goods are $78.998 billion, unchanged; new orders for durable goods year - on - year growth is 6.03%, unchanged; exports year - on - year growth is 9.68%, up 39.69% from the previous period; exports month - on - month growth is 1.14%, unchanged; imports year - on - year growth is - 26.33%, up 2.36% from the previous period; imports month - on - month growth is 8.71%, unchanged; the trade balance is - $70.3 billion, down 32.55% from the previous period [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, down 0.20% from the previous period; the ISM services PMI index is 56.10, up 2.30% from the previous period; the Markit manufacturing PMI index is 51.20, down 0.70% from the previous period; the Markit services PMI index is 52.30, down 0.20% from the previous period; the University of Michigan consumer confidence index is 56.60, up 0.20% from the previous period; the small business optimism index is 98.80, down 0.50% from the previous period; the US investor confidence index is 7.20, down 6.00% from the previous period [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves are 2,308.50 tons, up 0.09% from the previous period; the US gold reserves are 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's gold reserves are 36,458.24 tons, unchanged [10]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar's share in foreign exchange reserves is 56.32%, down 2.53% from the previous period; the euro's share is 21.13%, up 5.61% from the previous period; the RMB's share is 2.12%, down 0.03% from the previous period; the global share is 25.94%, up 3.58% from the previous period [10]. - **Gold/Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's gold as a percentage of foreign exchange reserves is 8.34%, up 4.06% from the previous period; the US's is 81.98%, up 1.08% from the previous period [10]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 394.17, down 13.02% from last week; the VIX index is 24.93, down 2.24% from the previous day and up 5.77% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 348.03, down 2.48% from the previous day and up 6.21% from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.8893, down 0.47% from the previous period [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate at different meetings from March 2026 to December 2027 are provided in a table, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global market risk preference has risen due to the signal of easing in the Middle East situation, but there are still uncertainties in the short - term, and most markets are expected to be volatile [2]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different commodities have different trends and influencing factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile due to factors such as geopolitical risks and the need to wait for more positive policy signals after the Two Sessions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the short - term export and import data are good, it is difficult to change the overall economic judgment. The value of treasury bonds has risen after the decline, and the negative impact from the Middle East has not completely dissipated [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term upward basis still exists, but in the short - term, the risk of postponed interest - rate cut expectations needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and US CPI, PCE data [3][4]. - **Copper**: The price increase is mainly driven by short - covering. The global macro - environment is complex, and both supply and demand are affected by multiple factors [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is dominated by the war situation and fluctuates sharply [5]. - **Alumina**: The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the release of new production capacity in March [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply may be affected by the Iran situation and energy costs, and the demand side has inventory pressure. The short - term metal price may be suppressed [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of Indonesian wet - process production lines is volatile, and stainless steel is supported by the peak - season expectation [8]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is starting to resume work. The high inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term demand is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and the marginal optimization of the supply - demand structure [9]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week and the implementation of secondary lead delivery [10][11]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is mainly stable, and the steel export faces pressure. The high inventory of hot - rolled coils may lead to price decline [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is relatively strong due to the tight liquidity of spot goods, but the fundamental supply - demand is seasonally weak. The upside space is limited [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure is large, and the overall black - metal series has downward pressure, but there is support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space may be limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory of plates [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on the Middle East situation. The development of the US - Iran situation and the subsequent navigation of the Strait of Hormuz are crucial [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel - oil market remains strong due to supply tightening, increased ship demand, and other factors [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and the short - term geopolitical disturbance is the core factor [16]. - **LPG**: The price follows the crude oil, and the Middle East situation needs to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Plastics**: The short - term supply pressure is limited, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively good [17]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war may break the current weak balance of domestic urea [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply may be affected by maintenance, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price space is limited [18]. - **Glass**: The production and sales are currently weak, and the high inventory in the middle reaches restricts the price increase [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, showing a weak - oscillating trend [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly affected by the weak post - Spring Festival demand, and the price has limited upward and downward space [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The price is supported by factors such as planting - cost increase, export improvement, and biodiesel boost. The domestic market will follow the performance of US soybeans in the short - term [21]. - **Oils**: The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention can be paid to the weakening of the price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil [22]. - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upside [23]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand improvement supports the price to be strong in oscillation, but the upside space is limited [24]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to the loose domestic supply - demand [24].

Group 1: Index Trends - On March 10th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to close at 4123.14 points, with a trading volume of 1,036.427 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04% to close at 14354.07 points, with a trading volume of 1,361.46 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.78% with a trading volume of 533.511 billion yuan, opening at 8272.94, closing at 8350.09, with a daily high of 8351.67 and a low of 8271.49 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.58% with a trading volume of 465.082 billion yuan, opening at 8341.14, closing at 8410.3, with a daily high of 8412.93 and a low of 8330.93 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.64% with a trading volume of 121.762 billion yuan, opening at 2973.82, closing at 2981.84, with a daily high of 2985.31 and a low of 2969.91 [1] - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.28% with a trading volume of 557.608 billion yuan, opening at 4648.79, closing at 4674.76, with a daily high of 4677.6 and a low of 4648.79 [1] Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 146.22 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and communications significantly driving the index up [3] - The CSI 500 rose 130.82 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, communications, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [3] - The SSE 300 rose 59.3 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, communications, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [3] - The SSE 50 rose 18.85 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals significantly driving the index up, while coal and petroleum & petrochemical sectors pulled the index down [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 33.66, IM01 was - 89.87, IM02 was - 243.03, and IM03 was - 444.71 [14] - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was - 21.7, IC01 was - 64.35, IC02 was - 184.6, and IC03 was - 349.85 [14] - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was - 8.89, IF01 was - 26.62, IF02 was - 73.75, and IF03 was - 145.44 [14] - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was 0.54, IH01 was - 1.51, IH02 was - 6.84, and IH03 was - 45.78 [14]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 3 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内精炼铜现货进口小幅亏损。宏观方面，继周一特朗普表示 | | | 美国对伊朗的战争可能很快就会结束之后，昨日特朗普称考虑豁免石油相关制裁，愿与 | | | 伊朗对话，政府层面的密集表态使得市场恐慌情绪继续消散，美元、原油再次下挫，市 | | | 场风险偏好则继续修复。库存方面，LME 库存增加 7700 吨至 319655 吨；Comex 库存下 | | 铜 | 降 1844 吨至 539240 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 568 吨至 319087 吨，BC 铜维持 13630 吨。 | | | 需求方面，下游订单回暖，采购情绪有所增加。美股回暖、美元走弱，市场风险偏好继 | | | 续回升，带动铜价反弹，但市场是否就此回暖仍然存在较大的不确定性，一是美伊冲突 | | | 的反复性，或导致市场波动难以有效降低；二是铜内外超预期累库下的基本面与套保压 | | | 力，因此对于后 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The AG (silver) ag2606 contract closed at 22,758 yuan yesterday, up 1510 yuan or 7.10% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 471,040 lots, a decrease of 148,605 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 200,036 lots, an increase of 10,976 lots from the previous day. The implied volatility of AG (silver options) fluctuates above the mean of 0.0000. The AG options open interest PCR is reported at 0.9769, at the 16.73% level in the past year. The pressure level of the AG options underlying is 37,600, and the support level is 6,700 [6]. - The AU (gold) au2604 contract closed at 1,150 yuan yesterday, up 9.08 yuan or 0.79% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 203,619 lots, a decrease of 108,781 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 111,758 lots, an increase of 891 lots from the previous day. The implied volatility of AU (gold options) fluctuates above the mean of 0.0000. The AU options open interest PCR is reported at 0.7001, at the 32.65% level in the past year. The pressure level of the AU options underlying is 1,200, and the support level is 1,000 [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Silver Options - **Market Data**: The latest price of the ag2606 contract is 22,758 yuan, up 1510 yuan or 7.10%. The trading volume is 471,040 lots, and the open interest is 200,036 lots [3]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of AG (silver call options) is 162,239 lots, a decrease of 49,868 lots, and the open interest is 114,723 lots, an increase of 441 lots. The trading volume of AG (silver put options) is 95,713 lots, a decrease of 60,310 lots, and the open interest is 112,078 lots, a decrease of 1,965 lots. The trading volume PCR is 0.59, a decrease of 0.15, and the open interest PCR is 0.98, a decrease of 0.02 [4]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of AG (silver options) is 37,600, and the support level is 6,700 [5]. - **Option Strategies**: For directional strategies, there is no recommendation. For volatility strategies, construct a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the positions to make the delta of the positions tend to be neutral, such as S_AG2604P22300, S_AG2604P22500, S_AG2604C23300, S_AG2604C23500 [7]. 3.2. Gold Options - **Market Data**: The latest price of the au2604 contract is 1,150 yuan, up 9.08 yuan or 0.79%. The trading volume is 203,619 lots, and the open interest is 111,758 lots [16]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of AU (gold call options) is 45,938 lots, a decrease of 33,495 lots, and the open interest is 58,632 lots, an increase of 1,056 lots. The trading volume of AU (gold put options) is 23,799 lots, a decrease of 21,792 lots, and the open interest is 41,051 lots, an increase of 795 lots. The trading volume PCR is 0.52, a decrease of 0.06, and the open interest PCR is 0.7 [17]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of AU (gold options) is 1,200, and the support level is 1,000. The weighted implied volatility is 41.71%, a decrease of 4.73%, the annual average implied volatility is 26.20%, and HISV20 is 65.29% [18]. - **Option Strategies**: For directional strategies, construct a bull call spread strategy to obtain directional returns, such as B_AU2604C1120 and S_AU2604C1160. For volatility strategies, construct a short call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value returns, and dynamically adjust the positions to keep the delta of the positions neutral, such as S_AU2604P1120, S_AU2604C1168 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For the stock market, in the short - term, if the current conflict ends quickly, its impact on the A - share market is limited; if it turns into a long - lasting battle and triggers global financial risks, it may impact global stock markets. In the medium - term, A - shares are likely to remain volatile with an increased volatility. Since December last year, A - share technology stocks have outperformed US - listed Chinese concept stocks and Hang Seng Technology Index, and the RMB has been appreciating rapidly, which may support A - shares in the first half of 2026. However, the article "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" has raised concerns about AI crowding out the traditional economy, which may continue to ferment and increase market volatility [1]. - For the bond market, it maintains a low - interest rate and an upward - capped and downward - floored range - bound pattern. The reasonable and sufficient liquidity and the weak economic recovery support the bond market, while the improvement of inflation data and the cautious approach to interest - rate cuts limit its further upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research View Stock Index Futures - The market opened and closed higher on the day, with the ChiNext Index rising over 3%. More than 4,500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume reached 2.42 trillion. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.04% [1][4]. Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the 30 - year bond futures main contract rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts were basically stable. The central bank conducted 395 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 10, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, the same as the previous time. After offsetting 343 billion yuan of due 7 - day reverse repurchase, there was a net injection of 52 billion yuan. DR001 rose slightly by 0.1 BP to 1.32%, and DR007 fell by 1 BP to 1.44% [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures and Stock Indices - On March 10, 2026, compared with March 9, 2026, IH rose from 2,962.4 to 2,981.4 (up 0.64%), IF rose from 4,599.2 to 4,664.0 (up 1.41%), IC rose from 8,267.0 to 8,393.6 (up 1.53%), and IM rose from 8,191.0 to 8,313.6 (up 1.50%). The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose from 2,963.0 to 2,981.8 (up 0.64%), the CSI 300 Index rose from 4,615.5 to 4,674.8 (up 1.28%), the CSI 500 Index rose from 8,279.5 to 8,410.3 (up 1.58%), and the CSI 1000 Index rose from 8,203.9 to 8,350.1 (up 1.78%) [3]. Bond Futures - On March 10, 2026, compared with March 9, 2026, TS remained at 102.46 (up 0.00%), TF remained at 105.98 (down 0.005, 0.00%), T fell from 108.32 to 108.31 (down 0.01, - 0.01%), and TL fell from 111.52 to 111.49 (down 0.03, - 0.03%) [3]. 3. Market News - **Overall Trend**: The market opened and closed higher, with the ChiNext Index rising over 3%. More than 4,500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume reached 2.42 trillion. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.04% [4]. - **Industry Sectors**: CPO, PCB, liquid - cooled servers, commercial aerospace and other sectors led the gains, while oil, gas, coal, steel and other sectors led the losses [4]. - **Popular Concepts**: Computing hardware stocks soared, with CPO, PCB, liquid - cooled servers and other sectors strengthening. Changguang Huaxin hit the daily limit and reached a new high, and many stocks such as Zhongying Technology, Xunjiexing, Dongshan Precision, and Guanghe Technology hit the daily limit. The super - hard materials concept rose, with Huanghe Whirlwind hitting the daily limit. The commercial aerospace concept was active, with Aerospace Electric Appliance hitting the daily limit. On the downside, oil and gas concept stocks adjusted, with Shandong Molong and Zhunyou Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit down [4]. 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides the historical price trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts and their respective basis trend charts [6][7][9]. Bond Futures - The report provides the historical price trend chart of bond futures main contracts, the historical yield chart of bond cash bonds, the basis charts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond futures, the inter - period spread charts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond futures, the cross - variety spread chart, and the capital interest rate chart [12][14][15][18]. Exchange Rates - The report provides the historical trend charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, the 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB, the 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [20][21][22][24][25].