成文日期:20260204 报告周期:日报 员：杜宇（从业资格号：F3075043; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017815) 1期货市场 2026年2月4日,上海期货交易所镍期货主力合约(NI.SHF) 呈现强势上涨走势。当目开盘价为 13.54 万元/吨,盘中最高价达到 13.777 万元/吨,最低价下探至 13.45 万元/吨,最终以 13.768 万元 /吨收盘,较前一交易日上涨 3.78%。全天成交 481,566 手，持仓量 为99,453 手。 2 现货市场基差分析 硫酸镍市场表现活跃, 2 月 4 日电池级硫酸镍价格报 32,850 元/ 吨,较上一交易目持平,但近二十个交易日累计上涨 12.69%;电镀 级硫酸镍价格报 32.750元/吨,同样持平,近二十个交易日累计上涨 6.5%。硫酸镍价格的持续上涨反映出新能源电池产业链对镍需求的 強劲支撑。 3 市场动态 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 1.供应端扰动：高品质银紧缺,叠加美元下跌提振及全球关键矿产 储备计划升温, ...

周度期货价量总览 | | | | | 国投期货｜宏观金融团队 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品类别 | 品种 | 周收盘价 | 周涨跌幅 | 20日年化波动率 | 波动率变化(%) | 投机度 | 趋势度 | 资金变动 | | 贵金属 | 黄金 | 1,090.12 | -6.14% | 71.69% | 88.75% | 3.67 | 0.01 | -146.55 | | | 白银 | 18,799.00 | -32.72% | 122.77% | 54.81% | 4.76 | -0.15 | -316.54 | | | 铜 | 100,100.00 | -3.45% | 45.02% | 19.22% | 1.69 | -0.20 | -94.11 | | | 镍 | 131,840.00 | -5.83% | 51.05% | -6.38% | 6.28 | -0.08 | -19.05 | | | 铝 | 23,315.00 | -5. ...

行业 金融期货周报 日期 2026 年 2 月 6 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ |  股指 - 3 | - | | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、市场回顾 - 3 | - | | | 二、成交持仓分析 - 5 | - | | | 三、基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - 5 | - | | | 四、行业板块概况 - 8 | - | | | 五、估值比较 - 9 | - | | |  国债 - 10 | - | | | 一、本周市场回顾 - 10 | - | | | 二、市场分析 - 19 | - | | | 三、下周公开市场到期 ...

Core Insights - In January, the number of fines imposed on financial institutions increased significantly year-on-year, while the total amount of fines decreased [1][3] Group 1: Overview of Penalties - A total of 1,438 fines were issued to financial institutions in January, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.13%, with a total penalty amount of 29.3 million yuan, down 20.16% from the previous year [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau issued 1,253 fines, an increase of 83.19% year-on-year, with a total penalty amount of 21.9 million yuan, up 15.87% [3] - The People's Bank of China issued 113 fines, a decrease of 38.59% year-on-year, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued 64 fines, an increase of 18.52% [3] Group 2: Penalties by Financial Institution Type - Banks received 830 fines, an increase of 41.88% year-on-year, with a total penalty amount of 21.4 million yuan, down 25.95% [6] - The insurance sector faced 532 fines, a year-on-year increase of 84.08%, with a slight decrease in total penalty amounts [6] - Securities firms received 12 fines, and futures companies received 9 fines, while private equity firms faced 44 fines [6] Group 3: Major Penalties - Shanghai Riyi Equity Investment Fund Co., Ltd. was fined 14 million yuan for failing to operate investments as per contractual agreements [9] - The actual controller of Shanghai Riyi, Sun, received a fine of 11.9 million yuan for similar violations, including misleading investors about capital safety [9] - Zhejiang Min Tai Commercial Bank was fined 7.15 million yuan for serious violations of prudent management rules [9] Group 4: Compliance Trends - The number of fines related to inflated loan and deposit figures increased 7.5 times month-on-month, with 34 fines issued in January compared to only 4 in December [11] - Misleading sales and promotional practices resulted in 34 fines, doubling from the previous month, primarily affecting insurance companies and banks [12] Group 5: Penalty Rankings - In January, non-bank institutions, particularly insurance companies, dominated the list of penalties, with Shanghai Riyi Equity Investment Fund being the highest fined non-bank entity [17] - China Ping An Property Insurance and China People's Property Insurance ranked second and third in total penalty amounts [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume, breaking below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline [1][6]. - Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Friday, the open interest of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract decreased by 10,036 lots, with a trading volume of 276,669 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,250 yuan, and the high was 3,270 yuan. The daily moving averages showed a short-term decline below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan or 0.43% [1]. - Spot Price: The hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -1 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1103 million tons. This week's output was at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4]. - Demand: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 0.0587 million tons to 3.0554 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0811 million tons. Mainly affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand from downstream manufacturing industries declined, but the overall level was still at a relatively high level in recent years, showing certain resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 0.0362 million tons to 3.592 million tons (the social inventory increased by 0.0212 million tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 0.015 million tons). The pressure was concentrated on social inventory, and the steel mill inventory was controllable. The steel mill inventory pressure was extremely low, and the social inventory increased significantly, reflecting the inventory backlog in the circulation link and the low willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish Factors: Steel mill复产 exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]. Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume today, breaking below the short-term 5-day, medium-term 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline. Fundamentally, the current supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and meal industry is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - For soymeal, although the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, as well as weather issues in Argentina, it's unadvisable to be overly bearish. It is conservatively recommended to take partial basis at low points, and the futures market should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation [2]. - For oils, although the US 45Z policy strongly supports US soybean oil, its restrictions on raw material imports prevent the benefits from reaching the domestic market. The market is in a moderately bullish oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward momentum [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soymeal - As of January 29, 2026, in the 2025/26 season, the US soybean exports to China (Mainland) were 432.4 million tons, lower than 1812 million tons in the same period last year. The US shipped 80.9 million tons of soybeans to China that week. The unshipped but sold soybeans to China in the 2025/26 season so far are 556.3 million tons, compared with 230.5 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - The drought problem in Argentina is worsening, especially in the central and southern regions. A cold front brought some showers, and the weather pattern in February seems more active, which may help depending on rainfall. Otherwise, the crop conditions will continue to deteriorate, and late - sown crops will face more pressure [2]. - Institutions significantly raised the production estimate of Brazil in the 2025/26 season, and the harvest progress is better than last year. Although there are still local weather uncertainties, the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened [2]. Oils - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 to reduce gasoline imports and improve energy self - sufficiency. However, due to limited ethanol supply, the plan to increase the mandatory blending has been postponed [3]. - In the 2025/26 season, India's sunflower oil imports will drop by about 10% to a four - year low as the price premium of sunflower oil over other edible oils grows, prompting buyers to switch to cheaper alternatives like palm oil, which may help reduce inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia and support Malaysian palm oil futures prices [3].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.6」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体下跌，科创50及创业板指跌幅较大，均跌超3%。四期指亦 集体走弱，此前涨幅明显的IC下行最大。本周，受到美国方面新任美联储主席提名带来的流 动性收紧预期冲击；以及人工智能产业过度投入而回报有限的担忧，使得美股科技股下行带 来的外溢效应影响，A股走势整体偏弱。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周显著回落。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -1.56 | -0.63 | 4637.6 | | | IH2603 | -1.23 | -0.80 | 3036.2 | | | IC2603 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw increased tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with rubber prices showing wide - range fluctuations. The trading atmosphere was generally subdued, and actual transactions were light [9]. - Currently, the domestic main production areas of natural rubber are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the off - season, with total supply shrinking. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has been increasing, and the demand from downstream tire companies has weakened. The short - term capacity utilization rate of tire companies may decline further [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15850 - 16600 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12850 - 13500 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - to - Week Summary** - Market Review: The natural rubber market had wide - range fluctuations. Import traders mainly focused on position rotation and replacement, with a small amount of arbitrage position increase. Factory purchasing was lackluster. Domestic spot prices adjusted with the market, and downstream purchasing willingness was weak, mainly for刚需 replenishment [9]. - Market Outlook: Supply is shrinking as domestic production areas are in the off - season and overseas is transitioning. Qingdao Port's inventory is increasing due to pre - holiday concentrated arrivals and weak downstream purchasing. Tire companies' capacity utilization rates are declining, and more companies will enter the Spring Festival holiday soon [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15850 - 16600, and the nr2604 contract between 12850 - 13500 in the short term [9]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Futures Market** - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 1.71% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price closed down 1.73% week - on - week [12]. - Position Analysis: No detailed analysis results are provided in the text, only the topics of position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber are mentioned [15][17]. - Inter - period Spread: As of February 6, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 was 105, and the spread between 20 - rubber 3 - 4 was - 45 [24]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of February 5, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 111,570 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,399 tons, a decrease of 3,226 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of February 5, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - Basis: As of February 5, the 20 - rubber basis was 401 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 995 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton from last week [41]. **3.3 Industry Situation** - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 6, the field latex price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 59.3 (+1) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 54 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [45]. - Domestic: The Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China are in the off - season [48]. - **Import** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [54]. - **Inventory** - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23%. Bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82% [57]. - **Downstream** - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [60]. - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, China's cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [63]. - Domestic Demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025, and a significant increase of about 39% year - on - year compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [66]. **3.4 Option Market Analysis** No information provided.

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.02.06」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1800区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1750-1800元/吨， 均价环比上涨15元/吨。本周期尿素工厂继续春节前的订单预收，期货价格的上涨，市场情绪的带 动，让尿素工厂报价并未出现明显松动，收单依然顺利。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，4-5家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅扩大。近期农业需求持 续推进，节前终端及贸易企业适当增加储备需求，尿素工厂订单量明显增加。工业领域维持刚需 采购，复合肥本周产能利用率环比提升，部分地区虽环保压力仍存，但为保障供应，规模企业装 置开工率稳中有升，春节临近，预计复合肥产能利用率或将下降。本周国内尿素企业库存小幅下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, a series of macro - events led by the Wash nomination triggered a significant shock in the market, causing the global precious metals market to experience an accelerated correction. In the short - term, market volatility may remain high, but geopolitical uncertainties provide bottom support for gold prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, the precious metals market may return to a pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. With the cooling of inflation and employment data, there may be a mid - term easing expectation, and the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds, but it is recommended to wait and see due to short - term high volatility [6]. - The actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the new Fed Chairman may adjust the interest - rate path and implement moderate interest - rate cuts. The support of medium - term easing expectations makes the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still valid, but short - term market fluctuations are intense, so it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the support levels of London gold at $4400 - 4500 per ounce and London silver at $55 - 60 per ounce [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Macro - events led to market shocks and a correction in the precious metals market. The cooling of the US employment market increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Profit - taking and market liquidity tightening increased the selling pressure on precious metals. The cancellation of the Iran - US negotiation provided bottom support for gold prices. The increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures may intensify short - term market fluctuations [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the precious metals market may return to a macro - and fundamental - driven pricing framework. With the support of medium - term easing expectations, the logic of bottom - fishing still holds, but short - term high volatility suggests a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the support levels of London gold and silver [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the net position of gold ETFs decreased slightly, while that of silver ETFs increased [10]. - **COMEX Net Long Positions**: As of January 27, 2025, the net long positions of both COMEX gold and silver decreased [15][20]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened week - on - week [21][25]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: This week, the domestic - foreign price difference of gold and silver continued to converge [26][28]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inventory of silver continued to decline significantly [29][31]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio continued to rebound [32][35]. 3. Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of December 2025, the import of silver and silver ore increased significantly. The output of semiconductor integrated circuits increased due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry [37][41][43]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached a record high [45][47]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand decreased slightly, narrowing the market shortage [48][50]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index strengthened, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose by nearly 2%. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price increased significantly. Central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [51][56][60].