1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移，偏弱运行 [1][2] -铝锭预计价格短期高位运行，整体高位宽幅震荡 [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Steel Products (Chengcai) -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [1][2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [2] -成材在供需双弱格局下，市场情绪悲观，价格再创近期新低，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [2] 3.2. Aluminum Ingots -中东地缘局势不确定，对铝价有支撑但边际影响减弱，部分铝厂生产或发运受影响，日均产量预计减少 [1][2] -采购情绪未被铝价大幅带动，采购力度弱，买货积极度不高 [2] -节后下游陆续复工，需求回暖，铝水比例环比回升约8个百分点，下游开工率提高至59.5%，各板块需求复苏情况有差异 [2] -周一库存较上周四增加1.5万吨，3月电解铝铸锭量预计维持高位，短期国内铝锭社会库存累库趋势延续 [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 诸葛亮的谨慎 宝城期货 陈栋 三国建兴六年，诸葛亮第一次北伐，魏延献上子午谷奇谋：轻骑倍道、直取长安，一战定关中。孔明 不用，反取祁山道，稳扎陇右、步步为营。千年以降，世人或赞其谨慎，或惜其保守。放到今天的期货市 场，这正是高波动行情下，稳健生存与孤注一掷的终极抉择。期货自带杠杆，涨跌凌厉、隔夜跳空、黑天 鹅频发，恰似秦岭天堑；走祁山还是走子午，决定你是长期在场，还是一次爆仓离场。 期货里的重仓赌徒，一次失手万劫不复 魏延之计，胜则封神，败则全军覆没。子午谷险峻难行、粮草不继、敌情难料，五个前提环环相扣， 缺一即死。这像极了期货市场里满仓梭哈、不止损、赌单边、信"必涨必跌"的交易者：把盈利寄托在极 端小概率，把本金暴露在不可控风险里。期货的高波动，是放大器而非印钞机。单边趋势里，重仓确实能 快速翻倍；但震荡洗盘、政策突变、外盘跳水、流动性枯竭，都能让账户瞬间归零。子午谷的致命缺陷， 是没有退路、没有容错、没有风控；期货里的重仓不止损，同样是把交易变成赌博，胜率再高，也扛不住 一次黑天鹅。历史反复证明：靠运气赚的钱，终将靠实力亏光。 期货的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk appetite declined rapidly due to geopolitical influence and then recovered during the domestic Two Sessions. The A-share market is testing for stabilization. [3] - For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, hold the bull spread portfolio constructed with put options. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Indicators - **Market Overview**: This week, the four major index futures contracts declined with the index. IF and IH fell 1.32% and 1.75% respectively, while IC and IM fell 3.60% and 3.64% respectively. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats, the net short positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7155, 402, 8025, and 3673 lots respectively. As of Friday, the optimal roll - over contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM were the 2604 contracts, and the optimal annualized roll - over costs were 2.47%, 0.58%, 4.11%, and 5.42% respectively. [10] - **A - share Performance**: This week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 1.54%, the CSI 500 Index fell 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 3.64%. [11] - **Basis and Cross - variety Ratios**: The basis of the four major index futures contracts oscillated neutrally, and the long - side strength weakened relatively. After March, it showed a downward trend due to dividend expectations. The current basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts were - 14.44, - 2.70, - 37.73, and - 37.06 points respectively. The futures contract ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of CSI 1000/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 decreased, and the value style was more stable during the decline. [12] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most of the Wind primary industry indices declined this week, while the energy sector rose against the trend. The top - rising sectors included materials, energy, and public utilities, with increases of 8.03%, 6.31%, and 5.50% respectively. The top - falling sectors included communication services, finance, and daily consumption, with decreases of 3.20%, 1.10%, and 0.18% respectively. [15] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the four major index futures significantly contracted. [16] - **Spot - Futures Price Difference Trend**: The basis oscillated and declined, and the seasonality gradually emerged. [21] - **Inter - period Spread Trend**: The report provides the inter - period spread trends of IF, IC, IH, and IM. [26][27][29] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The risk appetite was under pressure, and the valuations of small - and medium - cap stocks declined relatively. [34] - **Positions of the Top 20 Seats and Market Trends**: The long - to - short ratios generally declined. [42] - **Short - side Roll - over Costs**: The annualized short - side roll - over cost of the next - month contract was the lowest. [50] 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamental Tracking - **Domestic High - frequency Macroeconomic Tracking**: In January, M1 and M2 increased by 4.9% and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, with the growth rates accelerating by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the corporate sector's credit increased significantly year - on - year. [60] - **Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and national real - estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with the decline still expanding. The land transactions in first - tier cities significantly rebounded, and the commercial housing transactions rebounded slightly at the beginning of 2026. [60][61][68] - **Consumption**: In January, consumer demand continued to recover. CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. [60] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (previous value: 49.3%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (previous value: 49.4%). The steel tire operating rates continued to rise, while automobile sales declined in January. [60] - **Foreign Trade**: In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 114.1 billion US dollars. The freight rate indices showed an upward trend. [60] 3.3 Liquidity Tracking - **Liquidity Indicator Tracking**: On March 6, the SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32%, unchanged from last week. The LPR remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. This week, the central bank conducted 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, and due to the maturity of 1525 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal for the whole week was 1247.4 billion yuan. This week, A - share funds had a cumulative net active sell - off of 406.796 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume of A - shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.62 trillion yuan, the margin trading balance decreased, the short - selling balance increased, and the net outflow of equity ETF funds was 4.6 billion yuan. [94]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical factors, especially the conflict in the Middle East, which leads to significant fluctuations in various commodity prices. The market sentiment is complex, and different sectors show different trends. For example, the stock index shows a rebound trend, while the bond market is under pressure. In the commodity market, energy - related products are highly volatile, and agricultural products, metals, and other sectors also have their own characteristics due to different supply - demand relationships and external factors [20][24][131]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index rebounded across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 4,100 points. The trading volume of the whole market reached 2.42 trillion yuan. The stock index futures also rose, but the trading volume and positions of each variety decreased. The market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the shock, and the trading strategy is to buy at dips [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of treasury bond futures were mixed. The central bank net - injected 52 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, and the market capital was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The export data from January to February was strong, and the risk appetite of the market increased. In the short term, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The short - term bullish factors have been fully reflected, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. The spread between MRM09 can be considered to narrow [27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand is likely to be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to be strong. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but considering the low price and possible import policy tightening, the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to reduce inventory in March, but the high inventory may remain. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level. The oils are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The USDA report is the same as last month, and the US corn price is stable. The demand for deep - processing increases, and the spot price of corn in the northeast and ports is strong. The 05 - contract corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, with limited upward space in the short term [40][43]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is large, and the price fluctuates. The scale enterprises and retail farmers have sufficient supply, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill still has profits. It is recommended to go long lightly at dips [48][51]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens decreases, and the egg price rebounds slightly. It is recommended to short the June contract at high prices [52][54]. - **Apples**: The inventory decreases, and the price is firm. The May contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market rises, and the fundamentals of cotton have certain support. It is recommended to build long positions at dips [60][61]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The black sector fluctuates weakly at night. The steel output increases slightly, and the demand recovers seasonally, but the inventory accumulates. The steel price is affected by overseas geopolitical friction and is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in crude oil. The fundamentals are secondary, and it is recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed again, and the price fluctuates. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force is strong, but the profit - loss ratio decreases. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk sentiment improves, and the prices of gold and silver are repaired. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously based on the 20 - day moving average [73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the palladium may be affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to go long cautiously at dips [76][77]. - **Copper**: The geopolitical risk disturbs, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to buy lightly after the price stabilizes after a pull - back [78][81]. - **Alumina**: The price falls with the market sentiment, and the freight rate rises. It is expected to fluctuate after the price returns to rationality [83][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict affects the supply, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to go long at dips [86][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to go long at dips [91]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy at dips [92][94]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to buy at lows and sell at highs [95][97]. - **Nickel**: The macro factors dominate the market. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [99][100]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [103][105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range, with a price reference of (8000, 8900) [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [107][109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates at a high level under macro influence. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [110][113]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty in the Middle East increases, and the price may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and pay attention to the downstream consumption [113][116]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation cools down, and the freight rate of the mainstream shipping companies in the second half of March is gradually clear. It is recommended to wait and see [117][120]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The short - term capacity allocation may lead to the differentiation of the large and small ship markets. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of weather on global shipments in the second half of the year [122][124]. - **Carbon Emissions**: In the domestic carbon market, the short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - and long - term price center is expected to be higher. In the EU carbon market, the price is supported in the short term, but the long - term trend depends on multiple factors [125][128]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical information is repeated, and the oil price fluctuates sharply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [131][132]. - **Asphalt**: The cost fluctuates under the geopolitical conflict. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover slowly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [134][135]. - **Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the geopolitical fluctuation risk. The supply is expected to tighten, and the demand in Singapore is expected to increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in FU2605 and narrow the spread between LU05 and FU05 [136][138]. - **LPG**: It follows the oil price trend and fluctuates weakly [139][141]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the price fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to wait and see [142][144]. - **PX & PTA**: PX enters the maintenance season, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [146][147]. - **BZ & EB**: The listed price of the main refineries is lowered. The supply of benzene and styrene may be affected, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [149][150]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Iranian device stops, and the Middle East import source is affected. The supply - demand structure improves, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [151][152]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is good, but it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [153][154]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [155][156]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are supported, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [157][158]. - **Plastic PP**: The PE capacity utilization rate declines. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP main contracts and hold short positions for the spread between L2605 and PP2605 [159][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: It weakens, and it is recommended to wait and see [162][163]. - **PVC**: It fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to go long at lows and not chase the high [164][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to wait and see for the spread operation [167][169]. - **Glass**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to short at high prices [170][172]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely. It is expected to follow the decline of crude oil, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [173][174]. - **Urea**: It mainly follows the rise. The supply is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [176][178]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory suppresses the valuation. It is expected to fluctuate around the cost line, and it is recommended to sell the put option of SP2605 - P - 5200 [180][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is loose, and the paper price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices [184][186]. - **Logs**: The external market price rises, and the spot price is stable and strong. It is recommended to go long at dips [187][189]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The price difference between the cup and the latex in Thailand continues to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts and sell the put option of RU2605 - 15750 at an appropriate time [190][194]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increases. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR main contract [195][197].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation and geopolitical conflicts, with significant volatility. Different industries have different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to risk control [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, the performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 395 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 52 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will still be some pressure in the future, so it is necessary to be cautious [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The Shanghai Stock Exchange will increase the supply of institutional inclusiveness for technology - based enterprises. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is at a low level, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the great uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and wait for opportunities [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the great uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly, so it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Steel and Iron - Related Products - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure is reduced. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The demand for iron ore is suppressed by steel mill production restrictions, and the supply is in a weak pattern. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand is under pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The cost of ferroalloys is at a low level and the downward space is limited. The production has been at a low level since 2026, and the overall surplus pressure continues. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions after a rapid short - term price rebound [19]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in CFTC net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The limited opening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's consideration of laying mines support the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20][21]. - **Polyolefins**: On the previous trading day, the prices of polyolefins in the market fell. The downstream factories of polyolefins are resuming production, and the rigid demand for replenishment is increasing, which provides support for the price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities [23][24]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber futures fell. The cost of synthetic rubber is supported by the increase in crude oil prices and the expected maintenance of some devices in March. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the cost of synthetic rubber, and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber increases. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The market is affected by the overseas geopolitical conflict and the domestic seasonal off - season. It is expected that the disk will be in a strong - side shock [31]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and international supply - demand mismatches. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [33]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, and the PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the changes in oil prices and the situation [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand drive is general. The cost - side support is slightly weakened. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the demand resumption and inventory digestion [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The short - term geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost - side changes may intensify. The high inventory may suppress the short - term trend. It is recommended to be cautious and pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring inspection rhythm [39]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the cost is relatively strong, which may provide bottom support. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics and downstream factory resumption [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The bottle - chip supply is expected to shrink, and the export growth rate is increasing. The main logic is still on the cost side. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [42]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures fell. The supply of soda ash is loose, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is general. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk is likely to return to the fundamental logic. It is recommended to control risks [44][45]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The glass industry is in the stage of active capacity reduction, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk is in a high - position multi - empty game. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to the Middle - East situation [47][48]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures fell. The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The market may return to the fundamental logic, and the disk fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to the price of liquid chlorine and export transactions [51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The pulp inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend, the supply changes little, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and commodities, the procurement rhythm of downstream paper mills and capital trends [53]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, the supply is in a tight balance, and the demand is improving. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [56]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the supply elasticity of electrolytic copper is limited. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the copper price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [57]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The alumina market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the cost support is strengthened. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The aluminum price is expected to run strongly [58]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose slightly. The production of refined zinc is increasing moderately, the import is in a net inflow, the downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately, and the zinc price may be under pressure and in a shock [60]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply - demand mismatch is conducive to the de - stocking of primary lead, and the lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [61]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of refined tin is in a tight pattern, the demand is supported by emerging fields, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support below, but the overseas situation is uncertain, and the price volatility may increase [63]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The global nickel - mine supply is expected to be tight, the production cost is expected to rise, but the downstream consumption is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [64]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean - meal and soybean - oil futures fell. The export demand of soybeans is expected to improve, and the supply of soybeans is relatively loose. If the Middle - East conflict continues to rise, it is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions [66]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm - oil futures fell. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the inventory decreased. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: On the previous trading day, rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil futures fell. The import policy of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed products has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a relatively high or low level. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA expects a reduction in global cotton production in the new year, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term. The cotton price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [73]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. India's sugar production is expected to decrease, which is favorable for the market. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices on commodities [77]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The current inventory is low and the quality is poor, and the apple price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [80]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, pig futures fell. The national pig supply is relatively abundant, the consumption is weak, and the price is in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [82]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the feed - cost increase is expected. It is recommended to take partial profits on long - term short positions [84]. - **Corn and Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the supply is expected to be released after the festival. The demand for corn starch has recovered slightly, and it is expected to follow the corn market [85]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The shipping cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk has cooled down. It is recommended to pay attention to the external - market quotation, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the largest - ever release of strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize soaring oil prices during the US - Israel and Iran war, but it awaits member approval. Both the US and Israel show a willingness to end the war, yet the conflict continues, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. If the suspension of shipping continues, oil prices may rise again. For SC2604, operate in the 630 - 650 range and wait for opportunities to short at high levels in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Crude Oil 2604 Analysis**: - **Fundamentals**: The US and Israel launched a major air strike on Iran. The IEA's proposed release of oil reserves could exceed 182 million barrels in 2022. The US Navy cannot provide escort currently. Overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On March 10, Oman crude oil spot price was $115.28 per barrel, Qatar Marine crude oil spot price was $89.23 per barrel, with a basis of - $18.76 per barrel, indicating spot discount to futures, which is bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels in the week ending March 6, contrary to the expected increase of 1.38 million barrels. EIA inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27, more than the expected increase of 2.305 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 1.564 million barrels in the week ending February 27. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory increased by 0.954 million barrels to 3.511 million barrels as of March 10, which is bullish [3]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of March 3, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, which is neutral [3]. - **Expectation**: The IEA's plan needs member approval. The US and Israel show a willingness to end the war, but the conflict continues. If the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues, oil prices may rise. For SC2604, operate in the 630 - 650 range and wait for long - term short - selling opportunities at high levels [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The IEA proposed the largest - ever release of strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize oil prices during the US - Israel and Iran war. The release scale will exceed 182 million barrels in 2022. Member countries will decide on Wednesday [5]. - Saudi Arabia has started to cut oil production due to the near - shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Other OPEC countries have also cut production before [5]. - US Energy Secretary Wright's post about successful escort of an oil tanker was later deleted. The US military has not provided escort for merchant ships currently [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Strait passage is blocked; the Middle East situation deteriorates [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. - **Market Driver**: In the short - term, focus on geopolitical changes; in the long - term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for a reversal [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude oil settlement price dropped from $98.96 to $87.80, a decrease of 11.28%; WTI crude oil settlement price dropped from $94.77 to $83.45, a decrease of 11.94%; SC crude oil settlement price dropped from 746.6 to 732.4, a decrease of 1.90%; Oman crude oil settlement price dropped from $124.68 to $114.85, a decrease of 7.88% [7]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd price dropped from $103.24 to $88.32, a decrease of 14.45%; WTI price dropped from $94.77 to $83.45, a decrease of 11.94%; Oman crude oil price dropped from $125.31 to $115.28, a decrease of 8.00%; Shengli crude oil price increased from $80.52 to $89.31, an increase of 10.92%; Dubai crude oil price increased from $100.55 to $115.59, an increase of 14.96% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels in the week ending March 6; EIA inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of March 3, the net long position was 172,150, a decrease of 562 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of March 3, the net long position was 285,594, a decrease of 35,358 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans and the intensification of the Middle - East conflict leading to short - term import restrictions, it has entered a short - term oscillatory and bullish pattern. However, factors such as the completion of China's US soybean procurement and good weather in South American soybean - producing areas will limit its upward space [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 4720 and 4820. Affected by the upward trend of US soybeans and the reduction in the expected arrival of imported soybeans due to the escalation of the Middle - East conflict, it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The purchase of US soybeans by China supports the short - term US soybean market, but factors like the uncertainty of China's purchase volume and good weather in South American soybean - producing areas will suppress the upward space of US soybeans [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's purchase volume of US soybeans and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is in a short - term bullish oscillation, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. With normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to range oscillation in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal. The upward trend of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal have a cross - impact [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, soybean meal is in a short - term oscillatory and bullish pattern, waiting for further clarity on the Middle - East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; the harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish factors**: Brazilian soybeans have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From March 2 to March 10, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3119 - 3327, and the transaction volume fluctuated between 2.97 - 24.83 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2350 - 2450, and the transaction volume was mostly low, with a maximum of 1.8 million tons [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From March 3 to March 10, the prices of soybean futures (including bean 1 and bean 2), soybean meal futures (including the main contract and far - month contract), and soybean and soybean meal spot prices all showed certain fluctuations [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From February 27 to March 10, the warehouse receipts of bean 1, bean 2, and soybean meal all changed to varying degrees [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the United States (2024), Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), and Argentina (2024/25, 2025/26) [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, etc. of US soybeans from July 2025 to February 2026, as well as the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

金融研究 2026年3月11日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：3 月 10 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.65%，报收 4123.14 点；深成 指上涨 2.04%，报收 14354.07 点；创业板指上涨 3.04%，报收 3306.14 点；科创 50 指数上涨 2.16%， 报收 1420.54 点。市场成交 24,168 亿元，较前日减少 2,538 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+4.32%)， 电子(+3.41%)，机械设备(+2.81%)表现较好；石油石化(-5.14%)，煤炭(-3.11%)，综合(-1.83%)表现 一般。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,531/103/850。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 113、-112、-134、133 亿元，分别变动+225、+141、-189、-178 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 90.49、55.3、28.36 与 1.44 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-9.68%、-5.87%、-5.42%与-0.43%，三年期历 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From a technical perspective, Zhengzhou sugar has shown an upward trend after the Spring Festival, with the K-line standing above the long - term moving average and the moving averages starting to diverge upward, indicating a potential right - side market trend [5][9]. - Downstream enterprises are starting to replenish their inventories after the festival, leading to a recovery in market demand. The rise in crude oil prices has increased the price of sugar - made ethanol, indirectly supporting the price of white sugar. The center of gravity of white sugar has shifted upward, and a short - term bullish and volatile outlook is maintained [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Datagro estimates a sugar deficit of 268,000 tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO predicts a global sugar surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 season, down from the previous estimate of 163,000 tons. Covrig Analytics expects the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140,000 tons, lower than the 470,000 tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a global sugar surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,420 yuan, and the basis is 11 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of January in the 25/26 sugar season, the industrial inventory was 3.99 million tons, a neutral situation [6]. - **Market Performance**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign [6]. - **Long - Short Factors** - **Bullish factors**: There may be a decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season. The tariff on syrup has increased. American cola has changed its formula to use sucrose. Crude oil prices have risen [7]. - **Bearish factors**: Global sugar production has increased, and there is a surplus in the new season. The price of foreign sugar has dropped to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [7]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position has decreased, and the main trend is unclear, with a bearish bias [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO predicts a supply surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 season, while Datagro estimates a deficit of 268,000 tons in the 26/27 season [4]. - **Sugar Production and Consumption in China**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - producing area, yield per hectare, sugar production, import, consumption, export, and price data in China are presented. For example, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.7 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.7 million tons [33]. - **Cost and Profit of Imported Raw Sugar Processing**: The cost and profit of imported Brazilian raw sugar processing after 50% tariff from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided. For example, on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5,132 yuan per ton, and the profit was 618 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, the net short position has decreased, and the main trend is unclear, with a bearish bias [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the fuel oil market, the spot premium of 0.5% sulfur fuel oil soared to a record high, followed by a decline in the market structure and refining profit margins of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil. The war has changed ship navigation patterns, potentially increasing local fuel demand and tightening bunker fuel supply. The market initially expected high - sulfur fuel oil to be more affected by the war, but recent concerns about supply disruptions have made the fundamentals of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel soar. However, the US intention to cease fire and the IEA's suggestion to release strategic reserves may suppress prices. FU2605 is expected to operate in the 3950 - 4150 range, and LU2605 in the 4500 - 4800 range [3] - The行情 driving factor is the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. Risks include the possibility of a quick cease - fire in the Middle East [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and expected price ranges [3] - The price of the FU主力合约 futures increased by 2.30% to 4539, and the LU主力合约 futures increased by 2.38% to 5118. The FU basis decreased by 76.04% to 379, and the LU basis decreased by 62% to 924 [5] - The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 12.50% to 1050, and Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 35.48% to 2107.37. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 22.49% to 680.43, and Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 21.95% to 835.52. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 25.53% to 575.46, and Singapore diesel increased by 19.05% to 1344.51 [6] 2. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Middle - East situation turmoil and poor strait passage [4] - Bearish factors: The Trump administration's TACO reappearance and upstream crude oil under pressure [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals are neutral. The spot premium of 0.5% sulfur fuel oil soared and then the market structure and refining profit margins of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The war may increase local fuel demand and tighten bunker fuel supply [3] - The basis shows that Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 680.43 dollars/ton with a basis of 379 yuan/ton, and Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is at 835.52 dollars/ton with a basis of 924 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [3] - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3] - High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are long, changing from short to long [3] 4. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on March 4, 2026, was 2574.9 million barrels, an increase of 187 million barrels [3][7] 5. Spread Data - The report shows the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [9]