Core Insights - The latest round of US-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur concluded early with a "substantial framework agreement," and the US announced it would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods [1][3][20] Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The negotiations, initially planned for three days, wrapped up in two, indicating a significant breakthrough in discussions [1] - Key topics included rare earth exports, agricultural tariffs, and fentanyl control, with China maintaining a firm stance during the talks [3][5] - The US Treasury Secretary's announcement to abandon the 100% tariff plan reflects a retreat in response to China's strong position [3][16] Group 2: Impact on Commodities - Rare earth elements and soybeans emerged as critical issues, with China controlling over 90% of global rare earth processing capabilities, leading to soaring prices for US metals [5][6] - The US soybean market faced severe disruptions, with imports from China plummeting by 97% in a week, causing protests among American farmers [6][12] Group 3: Broader Geopolitical Implications - Following the US-China talks, India announced it would cease purchasing oil from sanctioned Russian companies, signaling a shift towards the US [8] - Brazil's President Lula met with Trump to initiate tariff negotiations, aiming to resolve trade tensions that have cost Brazil over $1 billion annually due to high tariffs on key exports [10][12] - The interconnected nature of these negotiations suggests a ripple effect, with each country's actions influencing the others, highlighting the complexity of global trade dynamics [20]

Core Insights - The trade landscape in the Asia-Pacific region is rapidly restructuring due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, significantly affecting countries heavily reliant on the U.S. market [1][4] - Vietnam and Cambodia are identified as the most severely impacted economies, with export declines projected at 19.2% and 23.9% respectively, far exceeding the regional average of 6.4% [1][2] - The report emphasizes the urgent need for market diversification and internal strengthening strategies for affected countries [3][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - Vietnam's economy is heavily dependent on exports, with 36.6% of its exports directed to the U.S., primarily in low-value-added sectors like apparel and electronics [1] - Cambodia's exports are 58% reliant on the U.S., with significant portions in labor-intensive industries such as clothing and footwear, which are directly targeted by U.S. tariffs [2] - Other vulnerable economies in the region, such as Fiji and Sri Lanka, are also facing substantial export declines of 19.6% and 15% respectively due to their concentrated export structures [2] Group 2: Strategies for Adaptation - Market diversification is critical, with Vietnam seeking to enhance cooperation with economies like South Korea and the EU, while Cambodia aims to expand exports to the EU under the EBA initiative [3] - Regional economic integration within ASEAN is highlighted as a potential buffer, although challenges such as non-tariff barriers and infrastructure gaps remain [3] - Both Vietnam and Cambodia are attempting to increase industrial value through technological innovation and investment in high-tech sectors, despite facing significant obstacles in talent development and infrastructure [3] Group 3: Social Safety Nets - Strengthening social security systems is essential, with Vietnam revising labor laws to expand unemployment insurance and Cambodia implementing cash transfer programs for vulnerable families [4] - The current social safety nets in both countries are inadequate to cope with large-scale unemployment and economic shocks [4][5] - The challenges faced by Vietnam and Cambodia reflect broader trends in the Asia-Pacific region, where economies highly dependent on external markets are encountering unprecedented difficulties [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face pressure to fall back and seek support at 4300 ringgit, with a chance of rebounding later. Domestic palm oil futures may also decline, with an expected correction to the 8800 - 9000 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have little change. The seasonal supply pressure from the US soybean harvest drags down the market. In China, post - holiday demand will weaken, and supply may increase, resulting in a short - term oversupply situation [1]. 2. Pork - In the short - term, the supply and demand of the pork market both increase, with chaotic spot quotes and larger declines in some areas. In the medium - term, demand recovers slowly, and supply is clearly recovering, with weak demand absorption. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, following the spot price with small fluctuations [3]. 3. Corn - In the short - term, the supply of new corn in the market is increasing. The price in the northeast is weak, and the price in the north China is under pressure. The demand side has a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. 4. Meal - US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The basis of domestic meal is supported before the festival. The purchase of Argentine soybeans eases the supply gap to some extent. The near - month increase of soybean meal is weak, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken in the short - term [8]. 5. Sugar - In the short - term, the international raw sugar price is dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. New sugar in China will be on the market soon, putting pressure on the spot market. The domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. 6. Cotton - The supply side has a large hedging pressure after the new cotton is purchased. The demand side has low confidence in the peak season, and the demand is less than in previous years. The domestic cotton price may be under pressure in the short - to - medium term [11]. 7. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. With the approaching of the double festivals, the demand for eggs may increase. Egg prices are expected to oscillate in a bottom - level range [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 26 was 8470 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.36% from September 25. The futures price of Y2601 was 8162 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 was 308 yuan, up 60 yuan or 24.19% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on September 26 was 9230 yuan, up 60 yuan or 0.65%. The futures price of P2601 was 9236 yuan, up 14 yuan or 0.15%. The basis of P2601 was - 6 yuan, up 46 yuan or 88.46% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on September 26 was 10240 yuan, up 200 yuan or 1.99%. The futures price of OI601 was 10162 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.20%. The basis of OI601 was 78 yuan, up 180 yuan or 176.47% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - **Inter - month spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil on September 28 was 236 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 9.92% from September 26; that of palm oil was 184 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 4.17%; that of rapeseed oil was 520 yuan, up 36 yuan or 7.44% [1]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 760 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 4.11%; the 2601 spread was - 1126 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1770 yuan, unchanged; the 2601 spread was 2000 yuan, up 50 yuan or 2.56% [1]. 2. Pork - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract basis was - 45 yuan, up 90 yuan or 66.67%. The price of the live hog 2511 contract was 12575 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan or - 0.87%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13100 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan or - 1.58% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan was 12530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that in Shandong was 12840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [3]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143630, down 11434 or - 7.37%. The weekly white - strip price was 0 yuan, down 19.81 yuan or - 100.00% [3]. 3. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract was 2178 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.60%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 1.30%. The basis was 102 yuan, down 43 yuan or - 29.66% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.24%. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or - 6.98% [5]. 4. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2937 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 3 yuan, unchanged [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2510 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2405 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 105 yuan, unchanged [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or - 0.13%. The price of the 2605 contract was 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.22% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The Nanning basis was 338 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.68%; the Kunming basis was 368 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.37% [10]. 6. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 0.96%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan or - 0.92% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14955 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.27%. The 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1550 yuan, up 90 yuan or 6.16% [11]. 7. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 contract was 3036 yuan/500KG, down 40 yuan or - 1.30%. The price of the 10 contract was 2940 yuan/500KG, down 41 yuan or - 1.38% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan or - 3.76%. The basis was 492 yuan/500KG, down 37 yuan or - 6.98% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to return to 4500 ringgit, and the domestic palm oil futures may gradually rise after the adjustment, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. US soybean oil has a downward space in the short term, while domestic soybean oil may see a decrease in inventory and a rise in the spot basis in the future [1]. Corn Industry - The short - term corn futures are in a rebound and consolidation stage, and the medium - term situation remains weak. It is advisable to consider shorting on rallies [2]. Sugar Industry - The international raw sugar is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range. The domestic sugar price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly around 5500 - 5700 [7]. Cotton Industry - The cotton price center has risen, but there is no obvious upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [8]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stabilizing with slight fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of the 11 and 01 contracts [9]. Meal Industry - The domestic meal prices have limited downward space. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range [11]. Egg Industry - Egg prices may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited, maintaining a bearish view [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 29, Y2601 decreased by 0.52%, and the palm oil futures price also showed certain fluctuations. The price of soybean oil and palm oil in the spot market also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production growth is lower than export growth, and the market expects limited inventory growth at the end of August. The US biodiesel policy for soybean oil is unclear, and the domestic demand for soybean oil is improving [1]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of corn 2511 increased by 0.27%, and the price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.32%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Northeast corn traders have insufficient inventory, but there is supplementary auction grain. Spring corn in North China is gradually on the market, and the new - season corn has a large expected increase in production. The demand side has relatively sufficient inventory and weak purchasing enthusiasm [2]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.04%, and the price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.97%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, but the Brazilian sugar production may be revised down. The 09 contract is affected by beet warehouse receipts, and the demand side is relatively stable during the double festivals [7]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of cotton 2509 increased by 0.73%, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of new cotton is yet to be verified, the inventory is relatively tight before the new cotton is on the market, the demand has improved marginally since August, but the downstream improvement is not obvious [8]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of live pigs 2511 decreased by 0.26%, and the price of live pigs 2601 decreased by 0.50%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of pigs is stabilizing, the slaughter volume has increased, and the market demand is expected to improve with the approach of the school season and cooler weather, but there may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals [9]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of soybean meal M2601 increased by 0.53%, and the price of rapeseed meal RM2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices, spreads, and crushing margins also changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, the Sino - US negotiation has no substantial progress, and the domestic supply concern has eased [11]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of egg 09 contract increased by 0.28%, and the price of egg 10 contract increased by 0.31%. The spot prices, spreads, and related indicators also changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in September may decrease, and the demand will weaken after the Mid - Autumn Festival [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Short - term, it's difficult for raw sugar prices to fall below previous lows, but the overall trend is bearish. Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but will remain bearish due to increased imports and weak demand [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the corn market has average trading, with a weak sentiment and the futures price will oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, the futures price may decline due to lower costs and increased supply [5]. - **Meal**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract of rapeseed meal. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and short - term supply is high, which suppresses the spot price [10]. - **Pig**: Spot pig prices are weakly oscillating, and short - term prices are not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract has support but also faces hedging pressure [13]. - **Cotton**: Short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After new cotton is on the market, prices will face pressure [17]. - **Egg**: Egg futures are still bearish, but low - price demand may support prices, while high supply may limit the increase [21]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.70% to 8670 on August 12. The basis of Y2601 increased by 18.18% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 3.12% to 9260. The basis of P2509 increased by 57.14%. The import profit decreased by 254.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.24% to 9760. The basis of OI601 decreased by 180.77% [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of SR2601 and SR2509 increased by 0.63% and 0.49% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.19%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged. The basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 23.07% respectively year - on - year. Industrial inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 9.46%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 25.25% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2509 increased by 0.11%. The basis decreased by 4.41%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 9.71% [5]. 3.4 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.34%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 23.77%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans decreased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.99%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 100%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased [10]. - **Soybean**: The price of domestic and imported soybeans remained stable. The basis of the main contracts changed [10]. 3.5 Pig Industry - **Futures**: The prices of LH2511 and LH2601 increased by 0.64% and 0.42% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot**: Prices in different regions had small fluctuations. The daily slaughter volume remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF2509 and CF2601 increased by 0.40% and 0.72% respectively. The open interest of the main contract increased by 67.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.04% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang cotton and related indexes increased slightly. The basis decreased [17]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.8%. Import volume decreased by 25% [17]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures**: The prices of JD09 and JD10 increased by 1.22% and 0.41% respectively. The 9 - 10 spread increased by 31.03% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 25.52% [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained stable, the price of culled hens decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from increased production, and Dalian palm oil futures are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. - Crude oil pressure and bearish CBOT soybeans affect vegetable oil prices. Domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to improved demand [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are expected to find strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downside space for domestic soybean meal is limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strength of oils may limit the rise of meal [3]. Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are slightly down but may bottom - out. The short - term outlook is not optimistic, and the 09 contract faces pressure. The 01 contract is affected by policies, and caution is needed regarding hedging funds [6]. Corn Industry - The corn market is weak in the short - term, with prices fluctuating. New - season corn may face supply pressure, and the market valuation may decline [8]. Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are expected to have difficulty breaking previous lows but are generally bearish. The domestic sugar market has weak demand, and a bearish trend is expected [13]. Cotton Industry - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally eased, but the downstream industry is still weak. Consider reducing positions in the 09 contract and holding short positions in far - month contracts [14]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. However, due to large supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy is recommended [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,580 yuan, up 1.18%. The Y2509 futures price is 8,406 yuan, up 0.74%. The basis is 136 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8,900 yuan, down 0.56%. The P2509 futures price is 9,064 yuan, down 1.04%. The basis is - 164 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,700 yuan, up 0.21%. The O1509 futures price is 9,562 yuan, down 0.55%. The basis is 138 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The M2509 futures price is 3,026 yuan, up 0.10%. The basis is - 106 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,690 yuan, up 1.89%. The RM2509 futures price is 2,745 yuan, up 0.77%. The basis is - 55 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4,118 yuan, up 0.05%. The basis is - 158 yuan, and the inventory is down 0.42% [3]. Pig Industry - Spot prices in various regions have slightly declined. The sample point slaughter volume decreased by 0.51%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 29.46% [6]. Corn Industry - The corn 2509 futures price is 2,259 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis is 61 yuan, down 14.08%. The 9 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, up 18.18% [8]. - The corn starch 2509 futures price is 2,662 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 48 yuan, down 14.29% [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar 2601 futures price is 5,628 yuan, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.31%. The basis in Nanning is 317 yuan, down 4.80% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [13]. Cotton Industry - The cotton 2509 futures price is 13,690 yuan, up 0.26%. The ICE US cotton主力 is 66.92 cents/pound, down 0.36%. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1,393 yuan, down 2.31% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, and imports decreased by 25% [14]. Egg Industry - The egg 09 contract is 3,378 yuan/500KG, up 1.44%. The egg 10 contract is 3,285 yuan/500KG, up 1.01%. The basis is - 371 yuan/500KG, down 24.51% [17]. - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, a 0.52% increase [17].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that participants believe it may be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate target range this year as inflation and activity outlooks become clearer [1] - The U.S. soybean export net sales for the week ending July 3 are expected to be between 300,000 to 600,000 tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, and between 50,000 to 400,000 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year [1] - In June, the national consumer price index in China rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with urban prices up by 0.1% and rural prices down by 0.2% [1] Group 2 - The average transaction price for low-sulfur coking coal in Lishi, Shanxi, reached 1,123 yuan per ton, an increase of 123 yuan per ton compared to June 25, due to market sentiment and lack of participation from coal mines in recent auctions [1] - The sugar production in Brazil's central-south region is expected to decrease by 9.8% to 2.95 million tons, with sugarcane crushing down by 9.7% year-on-year to 44.24 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production is projected to increase to 19.5 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting a growth of 0.5% [1] Group 3 - The total inventory of refined oil at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 20.685 million barrels, an increase of 152,900 barrels from the previous week [1] - U.S. crude oil exports rose by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day for the week ending July 4, while strategic petroleum reserve stocks increased by 23,800 barrels to 403 million barrels [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its copper price forecast at $9,700 per ton for December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange, adjusting the U.S. copper import tariff benchmark from 25% to 50% [1] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is advancing a plan to "reduce internal competition and cut capacity," aiming to establish a platform company for debt acquisition of excess capacity, which will help balance supply and demand [1] - The international oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil closing at $68.29 per barrel and Brent at $70.13 per barrel, while the U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.07 million barrels [1] - International precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold rising by 0.17% to $3,322.50 per ounce, while silver fell by 0.39% to $36.61 per ounce, influenced by trade tensions prompting central banks to increase gold purchases [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Fats and Oils**: Malaysian palm oil futures face short - term pressure due to production growth and slow export increase. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to fall further. For soybean oil, while there is support from fuel consumption as a biodiesel raw material, cost - side pressure from CBOT soybeans and high domestic inventory may limit its performance [1]. - **Meal**: Affected by crude oil decline and weather improvement, the US soybean market is weak but shows signs of stabilization at around 1020 cents. Brazilian soybean market is boosted by rising premiums. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and the meal market is in a short - term bottom - grinding adjustment with gradually strengthening support [2]. - **Hogs**: The hog spot price is in a range - bound pattern. Although the second - fattening enthusiasm has declined, the slaughter procurement is slightly more difficult. The market expects a potential rally in July and August, but the 09 contract may face downward pressure if the inventory is postponed [3]. - **Corn**: Corn supply is influenced by traders' behavior, with prices showing a stable - to - rising trend. However, the increase is limited by feed substitution. In the long - term, supply shortage and growing demand support an upward trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the import corn auction [6]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's adjustment of ethanol - gasoline ratio supports a slight rebound in raw sugar, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound. The domestic sugar market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term but is expected to turn bearish later [8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term supply shortage of old - crop cotton is difficult to resolve, but the long - term supply is sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, so the cotton price may fluctuate slightly upward in the short - term with a risk of short - term decline [11]. - **Eggs**: The national egg supply is abundant, and demand is average. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly, and finally stabilize [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Prices**: On June 27, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8290 yuan, up 0.61% from the previous day; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8500 yuan, up 0.12%; the price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9650 yuan, up 0.21% [1]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The basis of soybean oil Y2509 increased by 20% to 288 yuan; the basis of palm oil P2509 decreased by 4.62% to 124 yuan; the basis of rapeseed oil 01509 increased by 24.32% to 148 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushers was 1400000 tons, and the palm oil inventory was 1200000 tons [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2860 yuan, down 1.40%; the price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2430 yuan, unchanged; the price of soybeans in Harbin was 3960 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The basis of soybean meal M2509 decreased by 65.79% to - 76 yuan; the basis of rapeseed meal RM2509 decreased by 7.50% to - 120 yuan; the basis of soybean No.1 decreased by 5.26% to - 180 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is rising. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans for August shipment increased to 159 yuan, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed for November shipment increased to 87 yuan [2]. Hog Industry - **Futures**: The price of live hog 2507 was 13625 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the price of live hog 2509 was 14005 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [3]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend, with Henan at 14800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. - **Indicators**: The slaughter volume decreased by 0.75% to 142127 heads; the self - breeding profit increased by 159.02% to 50 yuan/head; the purchased - piglet profit increased by 29.49% to - 132 yuan/head [3]. Corn Industry - **Futures**: The price of corn 2509 was 2384 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the price of corn starch 2509 was 2743 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [6]. - **Spot and Spreads**: The basis of corn decreased by 300% to - 4 yuan; the basis of corn starch decreased by 187.50% to - 23 yuan [6]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The inventory of corn decreased by 2.34% to 1630745 tons; the inventory of corn starch decreased by 1.55% to 236004 tons; the profit of Shandong starch decreased by 10.53% to - 105 yuan [6]. Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 0.02%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5792 yuan/ton, up 0.03% [8]. - **Spot and Spreads**: The basis of Nanning increased by 2.76% to 298 yuan; the basis of Kunming decreased by 2.00% to 98 yuan [8]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the sales increased by 23.07% to 811.38 million tons [8]. Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2509 was 13760 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13765 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [11]. - **Spot and Spreads**: The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 4.53% to 1293 yuan [11]. - **Industry Data**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% to 312.69 million tons; the textile industry's inventory decreased by 14.0% year - on - year [11]. Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of egg 09 contract was 3673 yuan/500KG, up 0.36%; the price of egg 07 contract was 2803 yuan/500KG, down 0.74% [13]. - **Spot and Indicators**: The egg price in the production area was 2.78 yuan/jin, unchanged; the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.86% to 2.24; the breeding profit decreased by 19.30% to - 33.26 yuan/feather [13][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月8日） 7. 美国至5月2日当周国内原油产量为2025年1月24日当周以来最低；EIA战略石油储备库存为2022年10 月28日当周以来最高。 1. 央行连续六个月增持黄金，仲量联行：未来还有继续增持空间。 2. 花旗将布伦特原油0-3个月点价从每桶60美元下调至每桶55美元。 3. 欧盟考虑制裁俄罗斯卢克石油迪拜分公司。 4. 消息人士：几内亚启动了取消EGA公司采矿许可证的程序。 5. 埃及供应部长：埃及糖的战略储备足够维持14.1个月。 6. 高盛：将第二季度和第三季度铜价预测上调至每吨9330美元和9150美元，之前的预测分别为8620美元 和8370美元。 ...