市场高波动之下：外资比内资更积极 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 投资者微观行为洞察手册·3 月第 4 期 本报告导读： 策 略 研 本期市场成交热度下降，赚钱效应边际上升。从资金层面看，外资资金大幅流入， 融资资金小幅流出，偏股公募基金新发行边际下降，外资流入 A 股和港股。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | [Table_Report] 相关报告 成交活跃度下降，万得全 A 估值微降 2026.03.29 周期资源景气分化，新兴科技延续高增 2026.03.25 市场回调之际：公募发行节奏加快，宽基 ETF 净 流入 2026.03.24 成交活跃度下降，创业板指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment logic in the power industry has evolved into a tightly integrated ecological loop, driven by the increasing demand for electricity from AI applications and the need for stable and green energy supply [1][41]. Generation Segment - The power sector can be divided into three segments: generation, transmission, and storage [6]. - The distinction between traditional power and green power is crucial; traditional power includes all forms of electricity generation, while green power focuses on cleaner, low-carbon sources [8]. - The core attribute of the power index is its coverage of public utilities and high dividends, making it a defensive asset [10][12]. - Major constituents of the power index include companies like Changjiang Electric Power and China Nuclear Power, with respective weights of 8.81% and 7.56% [13]. Green Power Index - The National Green Power Index is more focused on clean energy operations, with a strong correlation to green power trading mechanisms and carbon neutrality policies [15]. - The demand for green power is rigid due to AI's expansion, with regulations requiring new data centers to source over 80% of their energy from green power [15]. - The National Green Power Index has a lower proportion of thermal power stocks compared to the China Securities Green Power Index, which includes a significant amount of thermal power [21]. Transmission Segment - The transmission segment, represented by grid equipment, shows greater growth elasticity compared to the generation segment due to the high demands of AI on electricity [27][28]. - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets from 2026 to 2030, a 40% increase from the previous five-year plan, indicating significant growth potential in this area [28][29]. - The market has two main indices tracking grid equipment: the China Securities Grid Equipment Theme Index and the Hang Seng A-Share Grid Equipment Index, which have shown different performance due to their constituent stocks [30]. Storage Segment - Energy storage is becoming increasingly important as it stabilizes the supply from renewable sources, which can be intermittent [36]. - The geopolitical landscape has highlighted the importance of energy security, making the integration of solar and storage solutions more attractive [36]. - The investment logic for energy storage is being elevated due to the dual catalysts of energy security and the demands of AI [36]. Overall Investment Outlook - The power investment ecosystem is characterized by a stable generation base, capital expenditure benefits from grid equipment, and explosive growth in energy storage driven by AI and energy security needs [41].

Market Pricing Status - The market transaction activity has slightly decreased, while the profit effect has increased, with the average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market dropping to 2.5 trillion yuan and the proportion of stocks rising to 34.9% [5][9][10] - The trading concentration has risen, with 10 industries having turnover rates above 90%, including oil and petrochemicals, and coal [5][19] A-Share Liquidity Tracking - Financing funds have seen a slight inflow, while ETF funds have experienced a small outflow, with public equity funds' new issuance increasing to 22.62 billion yuan [5][29] - Private equity confidence index has decreased by 0.1% compared to February, while the overall position has marginally increased [5][36] - Foreign capital has exited the A-share market, with a net outflow of 1.035 billion USD [5][41] - The IPO fundraising for the current period is 290 million yuan, with a private placement scale of 1.15 billion yuan [5][29] A-Share Industry Allocation Tracking - Foreign capital has generally exited various primary industries, with electronics and power equipment seeing the largest outflows of 160.4 million USD and 91.7 million USD respectively [5][40] - Financing funds have seen net inflows in power equipment (+6.05 billion yuan) and basic chemicals (+4.07 billion yuan), while outflows were noted in non-ferrous metals (-4.04 billion yuan) and defense industry (-1.22 billion yuan) [5][29] - ETF funds have shown a net outflow in sectors like oil and petrochemicals (-4.15 billion yuan) and pharmaceuticals (-2.15 billion yuan), while public utilities saw a net inflow of 2.61 billion yuan [5][29] Hong Kong Stock Market and Global Fund Flow - Significant inflow of southbound funds, with net purchases rising to 52.44 billion yuan, marking the 96th percentile since 2022 [5][29] - Global foreign capital has marginally flowed into Japan and South Korea, with inflows of 1.57 billion USD and 2.57 billion USD respectively [5][41]

Market Overview - The market transaction activity has increased, but the marginal profit effect has decreased. The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market rose to 2.6 trillion, with an average daily limit-up count of 70.8 stocks and a limit-up rate of 74.0% [1] - The proportion of stocks that increased in value has dropped to 22.5%, and the median weekly return for all A-shares decreased to -3.4% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - Foreign capital inflow was recorded at 1.14 billion USD, with northbound trading accounting for 28.7% of total trading volume [2] - The issuance scale of equity public funds increased to 2.65 billion, indicating a rise in overall stock positions [2] - Financing capital saw a slight outflow, with net selling amounting to 18.04 billion, representing 9.2% of total trading volume [2] Industry Allocation - Significant inflows were observed in the oil and petrochemical sectors, with financing capital net inflow of 2.59 billion and ETF inflow of 14.37 billion [3] - The top sectors for foreign capital inflow included non-ferrous metals (+0.541 billion USD) and banks (+0.143 billion USD), while machinery and home appliances saw outflows [3] Hong Kong and Global Fund Flow - Southbound capital experienced a net outflow of 8.09 billion, marking a significant decline since 2022 [4] - Global foreign capital showed marginal inflows into Japan (+3.38 billion USD) and China (+2.95 billion USD), while the US saw outflows [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in the A-share ETF market, driven by geopolitical conflicts, leading to a substantial inflow of funds into resource-related ETFs, particularly in oil and gas sectors, while core broad-based ETFs experienced notable outflows [3][4][11]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - As of March 6, nearly 400 billion yuan was withdrawn from core broad-based ETFs like the CSI 300 and CSI 500, while industry-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of 443.23 billion yuan, indicating a clear trend of funds moving from broad-based to thematic investments [4]. - Oil and gas ETFs emerged as the top performers, attracting over 206 billion yuan in a single week, with several products seeing their shares increase by over 300% [4][5]. - Specific oil and gas ETFs, such as the Guotai CSI Oil and Gas Industry ETF and the Penghua Oil ETF, attracted more than 40 billion yuan each within a few trading days, leading to significant increases in their share volumes [4][5]. Performance of Thematic ETFs - Other sectors, including electric grid, rare metals, and non-ferrous metals, also received substantial investment, with the Huaxia Electric Grid Equipment ETF seeing over 10 billion yuan in net inflows for six consecutive trading days [5]. - The trading activity for these thematic ETFs surged, with the Guotai CSI Oil and Gas Industry ETF recording a weekly trading volume exceeding 225 billion yuan, a 13-fold increase from the previous week [5]. Discrepancies in Fund Performance - There is a notable lag in the performance of some fund connection products compared to their corresponding ETFs, leading to investor confusion regarding the slower net value growth of these connection funds [7][8]. - The differences arise because ETF connection funds are designed to track the net value of the ETFs rather than their trading prices, which can lead to discrepancies during periods of high market volatility [8][9]. Future Market Outlook - The article highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are likely to continue affecting market risk preferences, with expectations of a volatile A-share index [11]. - Strategic resource products are anticipated to benefit from price increases, particularly in the oil and gas sector, which may see prices reach historical highs due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [12][13]. - The demand for rare metals is expected to grow due to their critical role in various industries, while traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel may also present investment opportunities [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is based on two research reports, constructing a strategy portfolio of industry and theme ETFs [2] - From 20260302 - 20260306, the strategy's cumulative net return was about -2.24%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about -1.01%. From October 14, 2024, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 35.44%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 11.95% [3] - In the week of March 9, 2026, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, power, and securities. The strategy will newly hold products like Bank ETF, Green Power ETF, etc., and continue to hold products like Coal ETF [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Strategy Portfolio Information - The strategy portfolio includes multiple ETFs, such as Bank ETF (market value: 14.61 billion yuan), Green Power ETF (market value: 5.13 billion yuan), etc. The holding situation includes调入 (newly included) and 继续持有 (continue to hold). Different ETFs have different heavy - position Shenwan industries and corresponding weights, as well as weekly and daily timing signals [3] Performance Tracking - During 20260302 - 20260306, the strategy's cumulative net return was about -2.24%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about -1.01%. From October 14, 2024, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 35.44%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 11.95% [3] Future Recommended Allocation - In the week of March 9, 2026, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, power, and securities. The strategy will newly hold products like Bank ETF, Green Power ETF, Financial Real Estate ETF Guotou Ruixin, Grid Equipment ETF, Central Enterprise ETF ICBC, etc., and continue to hold products like Coal ETF [12]

Core Viewpoint - The HALO trading strategy, emphasizing heavy assets and low obsolescence, is gaining traction among public funds as concerns grow over AI's potential to replace rather than empower traditional business models [1][4][5]. Group 1: Shift in Fund Investment Logic - The narrative around AI+ vertical applications, once a strong driver for excess returns, is now viewed with skepticism by some institutions, leading to a shift in investment strategies towards risk aversion [2][3]. - As of late 2025, concerns about AI's disruptive potential have led to significant adjustments in the holdings of public funds, with many technology stocks experiencing substantial declines [3][6]. Group 2: Characteristics of HALO Trading Strategy - HALO stands for Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence, focusing on companies with physical asset barriers and stable business models that are less susceptible to AI disruption [4][5]. - The strategy prioritizes companies with enduring business models and stable cash flows, aiming to mitigate risks associated with technological obsolescence [5][6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - The HALO strategy has gained popularity due to the recent underperformance of high-valuation tech stocks, prompting funds to seek more stable, lower-valuation assets [6][7]. - Notable companies within the HALO framework, such as Huazhu Group and Jiangnan Buyi, have shown significant stock price increases, indicating a positive market response to this strategy [7][8]. Group 4: Divergence in Strategy Applicability - There is a divergence of opinion among fund managers regarding the applicability of the HALO strategy, with some suggesting it may not directly translate to the A-share market due to differing economic conditions [9]. - The HALO strategy is seen as a way to balance risk and return in a market influenced by AI developments, with a focus on companies that can provide stable cash flows and withstand technological changes [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Combining the "Gain/Loss - Crowding" quadrant chart and ETF fund flow, there are gaming opportunities in the industrial non - ferrous metals and rare earth sectors [1]. - The oil and gas and power grid equipment sectors led the gains from March 2 - 6, becoming the market's main lines, while the gaming and media sectors had significant declines [1]. - Industrial non - ferrous metals and rare earths received reverse capital increases, presenting potential opportunities, while the power grid equipment may be volatile in the short term, and the oil and gas sector's future is highly uncertain [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review: Oil and Gas and Power Grid Equipment Led the Gains - **Overall Market Trend**: From March 2 - 6, the market declined and then stabilized. As of March 6, 2026, the closing price of the Wind All - A Index was 6783.03, a 2.30% drop from February 27 [6]. - **Performance of Major Indexes**: Large - cap stocks outperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index fell 0.93% and 1.07% respectively, while the STAR 50 Index and CSI 1000 Index had larger declines of 4.95% and 3.64% [7]. - **ETF Fund Flow**: Stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 7.349 billion yuan from March 2 - 6, a narrower outflow compared to February 24 - 26. Broad - based index ETFs had a net outflow of 42.875 billion yuan, while theme index ETFs had a net inflow of 23.533 billion yuan, and industry index ETFs had a net inflow of 13.731 billion yuan [10][11]. - **Market Focus**: The market focused on the oil and gas and power grid equipment sectors. The oil and gas index rose 9.50% with a crowding degree of 3.7%, reaching a new high since 2020. The power grid equipment index rose 5.49%, and its crowding degree increased from the 98.7% percentile to the 99.7% percentile since 2020. The gaming and media sectors fell 7.44% and 7.04% respectively, and their crowding degrees decreased for the second consecutive week. The rare earth and industrial non - ferrous metals sectors fell 7.00% and 4.74% respectively, with a slight decrease in crowding degree [14][15]. 2. Future Focus: Rare Earths and Industrial Non - Ferrous Metals May Present Gaming Opportunities - **Fund Flow Analysis**: Industrial non - ferrous metals and rare earths received reverse capital increases. The Industrial Non - Ferrous Metals ETF Wanjia and Rare Earth ETF Jiashi fell 4.91% and 7.15% respectively, but had net inflows of 559 million yuan and 1.991 billion yuan [22]. - **Power Grid Equipment**: The power grid equipment ETF had a net inflow of 5.284 billion yuan from March 2 - 5, accounting for 17.49% of its fund size. However, its crowding degree reached 3.92%, at the 99.7% percentile since 2020, and there may be a risk of adjustment [23]. - **Oil and Gas**: The oil and gas ETF had a net inflow of 5.108 billion yuan from March 2 - 5. The sector's future depends on the development of the US - Iran situation [26]. - **Gaming and Media**: The media ETF and gaming ETF fell 7.29% and 6.99% respectively, with net outflows of 1.505 billion yuan and 538 million yuan. If the HALO trading trend remains unchanged, these two industries will continue to face pressure [26].

Market Overview - Market trading activity has increased, with the average daily trading volume rising to 2.4 trillion yuan, and the proportion of stocks rising by 75.5%[5] - The median weekly return for all A-shares has increased to 2.3%[5] Fund Flows - Foreign capital inflow reached 5.6 billion USD as of February 25, with northbound trading accounting for 37.4% of total trading volume[5] - Public equity fund issuance has decreased to 880 million yuan, indicating a decline in overall stock positions[5] - ETF funds experienced a significant outflow of 32.34 billion yuan, with passive trading volume decreasing to 6.0%[5] Investor Behavior - The private equity confidence index increased by 0.5% compared to January, although positions have marginally decreased[5] - Retail investor activity has shown a slight increase, indicating growing market participation[5] Sector Performance - The electronics sector saw a net inflow of 15.8 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metals sector attracted 8.8 billion yuan[5] - The basic chemical sector experienced a net outflow of 2.94 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[5] Global Market Trends - Southbound capital inflow has slowed, with net purchases dropping to 26.92 billion yuan, representing the 75th percentile since 2022[5] - Global foreign capital has marginally flowed into the US and South Korean markets, with inflows of 5.18 billion USD and 4.22 billion USD respectively[5]

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market is experiencing a significant shift due to the withdrawal of state-owned funds, leading to a structural adjustment in growth dynamics and product rankings within the industry [3][5][32]. Group 1: Market Overview - The ETF market saw rapid growth, with total scale reaching 6.02 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 61.4% [2]. - However, by February 25, 2026, the total market scale dropped to 5.43 trillion yuan, a decrease of 600 billion yuan, or 10% [3][9]. - The recent decline in ETF scale is attributed to the exit of "helping funds" and state-owned capital, which had previously supported the market [4][11]. Group 2: Product Structure Changes - The withdrawal of state funds has led to a re-ranking of ETF products, with the CSI 300 ETF experiencing the largest decline, losing nearly 590 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [11]. - The CSI A500 ETF has gained momentum, with its scale decreasing by only 376 billion yuan, significantly narrowing the gap with the CSI 300 ETF [12][13]. - As of February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 ETF's scale is 596.9 billion yuan, while the CSI A500 ETF stands at 263.2 billion yuan, reducing the difference to approximately 330 billion yuan [11]. Group 3: Fund Management Companies - Major fund management companies like Huaxia and E Fund continue to lead the market, but their scales have decreased significantly due to the withdrawal of state funds [21][22]. - As of February 25, 2026, Huaxia Fund's scale is 7439.32 billion yuan, while E Fund's is 6949.94 billion yuan, both showing substantial reductions from previous levels [23]. - Companies focusing on industry ETFs, such as Guotai Fund, are benefiting from the current market dynamics, with a potential to surpass others in the future [25]. Group 4: Future Growth Drivers - The growth of the ETF market is expected to shift from state-driven investments to demand from institutional and retail investors, with a focus on thematic and industry-specific ETFs [31][33]. - The anticipated influx of funds from household savings, insurance, and pension funds is expected to provide a stable source of capital for ETFs, potentially covering the 600 billion yuan gap left by state fund withdrawals [34][35]. - The trend towards thematic ETFs, particularly in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy, is likely to drive future growth, as these areas attract significant investor interest [33][36].