1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 24, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. It shows the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of these commodities [1][7][22][28][38][51] 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from March 17 to March 23, 2026, is presented. The basis on March 23 is - 58.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads between 5 - month and 1 - month, 9 - month and 1 - month, 9 - month and 5 - month are all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from March 17 to March 23, 2026, are provided. For example, on March 23, the basis of INE crude oil is 477.41 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1737 [9] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 17 to March 23, 2026, are given. For instance, on March 23, the basis of rubber is - 145 yuan/ton [11] - Inter - period spreads: The inter - period spreads (5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of rubber is - 760 yuan/ton [12] - Inter - variety spreads: The inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from March 17 to March 23, 2026, are shown. On March 23, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 3125 yuan/ton [12] Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month - 1 - month, 9(10) - month - 1 - month, 9(10) - month - 5 - month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of rebar is - 56.0 yuan/ton [21] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) from March 17 to March 23, 2026, are presented. On March 23, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.84 [21] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 17 to March 23, 2026, are given. On March 23, the basis of rebar is 116.0 yuan/ton [22] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 17 to March 23, 2026, are provided. On March 23, the basis of copper is 810 yuan/ton [30] - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 23, 2026, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper is (85.26) [33] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 17 to March 23, 2026, are given. On March 23, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 190 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 5 - month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 is - 5 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) from March 17 to March 23, 2026, are shown. On March 23, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio is 1.99 [39] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 17 to March 23, 2026, are provided. On March 23, the basis of CSI 300 is 10.43 [51] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next - month - current - month, next - quarter - current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 17.8 [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to continue its weak oscillation pattern in the short term due to the continuous escalation of the Middle East conflict, which impacts the equity market, squeezes the profit margins of domestic mid - and downstream high - end manufacturing, and restricts the overseas central banks' rate - cut space. In the long run, with the overall economic tone in line with expectations, multiple policies promoting economic growth, ample macro - liquidity, and capital market policies supporting a "slow - bull" market, the stock index is expected to have an upward space and may resume its upward trend as the external geopolitical situation eases and market risk appetite recovers [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money and Bond Market - **Market Data**: DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.03bp increase, DR007 at 1.42 with a 0.62bp decrease, GC001 at 1.10 with a 20.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.46 with a 2.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.52 with a 0.60bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.26 with a 0.21bp increase, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.56 with a 0.77bp increase, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.83 with a 1.67bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.39 with a 14.00bp increase [4] - **Market Review**: Last week, the central bank conducted 242.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. With 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, there was a net injection of 65.8 billion yuan. Also, 600 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase expired, and the central bank carried out 500 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase operations and 250 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders [4] - **Market Outlook**: This week, 242.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with 137.3 billion, 51 billion, 20.5 billion, 13 billion, and 20.5 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 450 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Wednesday [5] Stock Index Futures Market - **Market Data**: The closing prices of major stock indices and their changes are as follows: the CSI 300 closed at 4567 with a 0.35% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2884 with a 1.11% decrease, the CSI 500 at 7760 with a 1.49% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 7783 with a 1.59% decrease. The closing prices of corresponding stock index futures and their changes are: IF当月 at 4597 with a 0.2% increase, IH当月 at 2898 with a 0.7% decrease, IC当月 at 7844 with a 0.5% decrease, and IM当月 at 7876 with a 0.6% decrease. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7] - **Market Review**: Last week, the CSI 300 fell 2.19% to 4567, the SSE 50 fell 2.47% to 2883.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.82% to 7760, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.25% to 7783.4. Most industries in the Zhongwan primary industry index declined, with only communication (2.1%) and banking (0.4%) rising, while non - ferrous metals (-11.8%), basic chemicals (-10.5%), steel (-10.3%), comprehensive (-8%), and building materials (-7.9%) led the decline. The market sentiment cooled significantly, and A - share trading volume shrank substantially, with the daily trading volume last week being 2339.9 billion yuan, 2224.6 billion yuan, 2061 billion yuan, 2127.3 billion yuan, and 2302.8 billion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume decreasing by 244.62 billion yuan compared with the previous week [7] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are provided, with specific values for the next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 23, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, to help investors understand the market situation and potential arbitrage opportunities [1][6][23][29][40][53] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis, 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month data of power coal from March 16 to March 20, 2026. The basis values are -78.4, -78.4, -78.4, -72.4, -66.4 respectively, and the other differences are all 0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - The basis of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from March 16 to March 20, 2026 are presented. For example, on March 20, the basis of INE crude oil is 321.19, the basis of fuel oil is 718.27, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1737 [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 16 to March 20, 2026 are provided. For instance, on March 20, the basis of rubber is 0, methanol is -22, etc. [11] - **Inter - period**: The inter - period differences (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month difference of rubber is -700 [13] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety differences (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from March 16 to March 20, 2026 are shown. For example, on March 20, LLDPE - PVC is 2885 [13] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The inter - period differences (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 5 - month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month difference of rebar is -60.0 [22] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety ratios (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal) and the difference between rebar and hot - rolled coil from March 16 to March 20, 2026 are provided. For example, on March 20, rebar/iron ore is 3.85 [22] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 16 to March 20, 2026 are given. For example, on March 20, the basis of rebar is 87.0 [23] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 16 to March 20, 2026 are presented. For example, on March 20, the basis of copper is 870 [30] (2) London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on March 19, 2026 are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper is (100.12) [35] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 16 to March 20, 2026 are given. For example, on March 20, the basis of soybeans No.1 is -230 [41] - **Inter - period**: The inter - period differences (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month difference of soybeans No.1 is 18 [41] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety ratios (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) and differences (soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) from March 16 to March 20, 2026 are shown. For example, on March 20, soybeans No.1/corn is 2.01 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Inter - period**: The inter - period differences (next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month difference of CSI 300 is -39.1 [51] - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 16 to March 20, 2026 are given. For example, on March 20, the basis of CSI 300 is 16.03 [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 20, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of these varieties [1][6][23][29][40][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026. The basis values are - 72.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 78.4, - 72.4 respectively, and the spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. For example, on March 19, the basis of INE crude oil is 336.64, the basis of fuel oil is 199.69, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1733 [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. For instance, on March 19, the basis of rubber is - 90, and that of methanol is 35.5 [12] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is - 650 [13] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2979 [13] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is - 58.0 [22] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.88 [22] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of rebar is 95.0 [23] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are presented. On March 19, the basis of copper is 1140 [30] London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 19, 2026 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (100.12) [35] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are given. On March 19, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 216 [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 27 [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are shown. On March 19, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio is 2.03 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 13 to March 19, 2026 are provided. On March 19, the basis of CSI 300 is - 3.35 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 25.2 [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 19, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, mainly showing the basis, inter-period, and inter-variety data of each commodity [1][6][22][28][39][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis and inter-period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are presented. The basis was -72.4 yuan/ton on March 12 and 13, and -78.4 yuan/ton from March 16 to 18. The inter - period spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are provided, along with the price ratio of INE crude oil [8]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V (PVC), and PP from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is shown. For example, the basis of rubber was 275 yuan/ton on March 12 and -150 yuan/ton on March 18 [10]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was -600 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2657 yuan/ton on March 12 and 2696 yuan/ton on March 18 [12]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was -50.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are shown. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.94 on March 12 and 3.88 on March 18 [21]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is presented. The basis of rebar was 110.0 yuan/ton on March 12 and 130.0 yuan/ton on March 18 [22]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is provided. The basis of copper was -710 yuan/ton on March 12 and 340 yuan/ton on March 18 [31]. London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 18, 2026, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (107.22) and the import profit was 726.49 yuan/ton [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is shown. The basis of soybeans No.1 was -269 yuan/ton on March 12 and -276 yuan/ton on March 18 [40]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 66 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from March 12 to March 18, 2026, are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 2.03 on March 12 and 2.06 on March 18 [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 12 to March 18, 2026, is provided [52]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was -19.6 [50].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 18, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. It shows the basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of these varieties over the past few trading days. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The daily data of power coal basis, 5 - month minus 1 - month spread, 9 - month minus 1 - month spread, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spread from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented. The basis values are - 67.4, - 72.4, - 72.4, - 78.4, - 78.4 respectively, while the spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are provided, along with their price ratios on March 17 [8] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented [10] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol spreads from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are given [11] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, with the note that the rebar main contracts are in January, May, and October [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil spreads from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are given [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are provided [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented [28] 3.4.2 London Market - On March 17, 2026, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are provided [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented [39] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are provided [39] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch spreads from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are given [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 11 to March 17, 2026 are presented [50] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 17th, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 4%, alumina rose over 3%, and palladium rose over 2%. On the other hand, pulp dropped over 3%. The performance of stock index futures and treasury bond futures also varied. The flow of funds in the futures market showed significant differences among contracts [4][5]. - Due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes, the prices and trends of different commodities like copper, lithium carbonate, crude oil, and others are affected differently. The prices of some commodities are expected to be strong and volatile, while others may face downward pressure or return to fundamentals [7][9][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 17th, platinum, alumina, palladium, asphalt, iron ore, and Shanghai lead in the domestic futures main contracts rose, while pulp, caustic soda, live pigs, etc. fell. The performance of stock index futures and treasury bond futures also differed. In terms of fund flow, crude oil 2605, pulp 2605, and alumina 2605 had capital inflows, while CSI 2603, CSI 1000 2603, and Shanghai - Shenzhen 2603 had capital outflows [4][5]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Different Commodities 3.2.1. Shanghai Copper - In February 2026, China imported 231.0 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The electrolytic copper production in March increased. The copper product industry started to recover, but the terminal data was not optimistic. Affected by factors such as oil prices, inflation, and the US Federal Reserve meeting, the copper market remained weak [7]. 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate rose. The export of lithium concentrates in Zimbabwe was suspended. After the Spring Festival, the upstream production increased, but there was a high risk of domestic lithium mine resumption. The inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The terminal demand showed signs of weakening, but the export increased. The price of lithium carbonate mainly fluctuated in a range, and future policies and resumption might affect the market [9]. 3.2.3. Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the overall oil product inventory decreased. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran affected Iran's oil production and exports. The Strait of Hormuz was almost shut down, leading to production cuts in Middle - Eastern countries. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the risk of crude oil price increase remained, and the market was highly volatile [10][11]. 3.2.4. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly, and the expected production in March increased. The downstream industry's start - up rate increased, and the shipment volume increased. The inventory rate remained low. Affected by the supply of raw materials from the Middle East, the asphalt price was expected to be strong and volatile [12][14]. 3.2.5. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased slightly, and the enterprise start - up rate was at a low level. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of crude oil increased, and the supply of raw materials was tight. The domestic supply - demand situation improved, and the price was likely to rise [15]. 3.2.6. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate was at a neutral level, and the downstream start - up rate increased. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of crude oil increased, and new production capacity was put into operation. The domestic supply - demand situation improved, and the price was likely to rise [16][17]. 3.2.7. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price rose, the PVC start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate recovered. The export inquiry improved, but the social inventory was still high. Affected by environmental policies and the supply of raw materials, the price was likely to rise [18]. 3.2.8. Coking Coal - The coking coal price低开 and then rose, showing weakness. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased, and the domestic mine output increased. The inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream replenished stocks. The price was affected by energy shortage expectations, but the market was complex [20]. 3.2.9. Urea - Urea prices fell nearly 2% on the day. The supply was abundant, and the downstream demand was from both agriculture and industry. The inventory did not show a large - scale accumulation, and the market was expected to stabilize after a correction [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 17, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][6][21][27][38][49] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from March 10 to March 16, 2026. The basis values are - 64.4, - 67.4, - 72.4, - 72.4, - 78.4 respectively, and the inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are presented, along with the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [8] Chemical Commodities - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are provided [10] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [11] - Inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are presented [11] 3. Black Metals - The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are shown [21] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, with a note that the rebar main contracts are in January, May, and October [20] - Inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are presented [20] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are provided [30] London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 16, 2026 are presented [33] 5. Agricultural Products - The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are shown [39] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are provided [39] - Inter - variety spreads (soybeans/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc.) from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are presented [39] 6. Stock Index Futures - The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 10 to March 16, 2026 are provided [50] - Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented [50]

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is volatile and weak. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy for stock index futures, while the domestic equity market may be more resilient than overseas ones. For bond futures, the short - term logic is inflation, and the curve is likely to remain steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [14][15]. - For steel and ore, short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points, and the previous short - straddle strategy should be held. For iron ore, the short - straddle strategy should be maintained, and the 05 - 09 positive spread should take profits around 35 [16][18]. - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips from the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. Be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [20]. - For soda ash and glass, the current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory changes and the macro - environment. Zinc should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset, and short - positions in lead should take profits [24][26]. - Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Egg prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Apple prices are expected to be strong. Corn prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Hog prices are likely to remain at a low level [34][36][39][41][42][43][44]. - Crude oil prices are likely to rise due to supply shortages. Fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Polyolefin prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Rubber trading should be cautious, and pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Synthetic rubber prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Methanol prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Caustic soda prices are subject to supply - demand factors and should be traded according to the market rhythm. Asphalt prices follow oil prices. PVC prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. The polyester industry chain should be treated with a cautious and bullish attitude. LPG is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [46][48][49][50][51][53][55][56][58][59]. - Paper pulp prices have short - term support, and attention should be paid to inventory and price increases of finished products. Log prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Urea prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions [61][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was officially released on March 13. The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14 to 17. The US may launch a 301 investigation against China [8]. - Apple will lower the commission rate in the Chinese App Store from 30% to 25% starting from March 15. The State Council passed the key work division plan for 2026 and studied the negative - list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [8][9]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan. The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on March 16, with a reduction of 100 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount [9]. - The US 1 - month core PCE increased by 3.1% year - on - year. The US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. Saudi Arabia will cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day [10][11]. - The US attacked Iran's oil export hub, and the global energy market is facing a supply crisis. The global chemical industry is experiencing "large - scale force majeure" [11][12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is weak, with technology stocks adjusting. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to 4095.45 points. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy due to geopolitical risks [14]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose. The short - term logic of the bond market is inflation, and the curve is steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [15]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Steel orders have improved, but high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points. The iron ore short - straddle strategy should be held [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon - The absolute price of double - silicon is still high. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, and be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by energy sentiment [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - Geopolitical tensions increase inflationary pressure, and high inventory suppresses prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to inventory and the macro - environment [24]. 3.4.2 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories continue to increase, and consumption is weak. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish and volatile in the short term [26]. 3.4.3 Lead - Lead inventories increase, and prices are weak. Short - positions in lead should take profits [26]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - Prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Pay attention to the "Golden March and Silver April" demand and geopolitical impacts [34]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Global sugar supply forecasts are divided, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure [36]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Pay attention to feed prices and chicken inventory [39]. 3.5.4 Apples - High - quality apple prices are expected to be strong. The market is supported by low inventory and pre - holiday demand [41]. 3.5.5 Corn - Prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy grain supply [42]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The market will enter the off - season, and high inventory is a pressure [43]. 3.5.7 Hogs - The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Prices are likely to remain at a low level, and short positions in near - month contracts can be considered [44]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Supply shortages may lead to price increases. The market is facing a supply risk of over 10 million barrels per day [46]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - It is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Pay attention to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [48]. 3.6.3 Polyolefin - Prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Pay attention to spot market sentiment [49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Consider the impact of conflicts on tire exports and weather conditions [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Pay attention to raw material supply and energy prices [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Pay attention to spring maintenance and Iranian supply [53]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Prices are subject to supply - demand factors. The long - position logic is supply reduction and export growth, while the short - position logic is weak domestic demand and high - priced futures [55]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Prices follow oil prices. Demand is in the off - season, and high prices suppress speculative demand [55]. 3.6.9 PVC - Prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. Pay attention to the reduction and expansion of ethylene production [56]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - contraction expectation is the main trading logic. Pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [58]. 3.6.11 LPG - It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil. Pay attention to supply risks from the Middle East and demand changes [59]. 3.7 Others 3.7.1 Paper Pulp - Prices have short - term support. Pay attention to inventory and price increases of finished products [61]. 3.7.2 Logs - Prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory changes [61]. 3.7.3 Urea - Prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions. Pay attention to overseas disturbances and domestic policies [62].