路斯股份（832419） 证券研究报告·北交所公司点评报告·饲料 证券分析师 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600525070008 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 2025 中报点评：受肉粉影响国内增速略有放 缓，海外市场逐步放量 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 696.31 | 777.64 | 887.43 | 1,030.48 | 1,177.26 | | 同比 | 26.82 | 11.68 | 14.12 | 16.12 | 14.24 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 68.40 | 78.36 | 79.73 | 95.40 | 114.92 | | 同比 | 58.58 | 14.57 | 1.75 | 19.65 | 20.46 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.66 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 1.11 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 35.19 ...

证券研究报告 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 收盘价（元） | | | | 23.30 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年 内 最 | | | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 2,407.04 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 2,180.89 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | 103.31 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 22.79 | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | 5.50 | | | | 一 | | | | | | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | | 低 | | | | | | | | 高 / 最 | | | | | | | | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 08 | 日 | 25 | 月 | ...

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,639.67, up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.18% to 11,157.94 [4] - The coal market has seen a significant shift, with the Qinhuangdao port's 5500 kcal thermal coal closing price rising to 667 RMB/ton, surpassing the annual long-term contract price, indicating a recovery in market confidence [7] Coal Industry Insights - The long-term contract price inversion has been resolved, boosting market confidence and leading to an expectation of rising coal prices. The inversion lasted from February 28, 2025, to August 4, 2025, during which the contract fulfillment rate declined [7] - The expectation for coal prices to rise may exceed previous forecasts, particularly for coking coal, which has shown a faster and greater increase than thermal coal [7] - Coal stocks are responding positively to favorable market conditions, with a focus on policy implementation and supply-demand dynamics. Key stocks to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal, and Shanxi Coking Coal [7] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The Ministry of Finance has announced the reintroduction of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, which is expected to have a limited impact on the industry. The estimated additional tax burden for the securities industry is 5.304 billion RMB, accounting for only 1.18% of the 2024 revenue [8] Company Performance: Zhongchong Co. - Zhongchong Co. reported a revenue of 2.432 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.32%, with a net profit of 203 million RMB, up by 42.56% [9] - The company’s domestic business continues to grow robustly, with a focus on expanding its brand internationally [9] Company Performance: Dipu Technology - Dipu Technology achieved a revenue of 551 million RMB in the first half of 2025, marking a 9.59% increase year-on-year, while net profit slightly increased by 0.17% to 52 million RMB [11] - The company is accelerating its layout in AI and computing network businesses, indicating a strategic shift towards high-growth areas [11][17] Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is expected to benefit from rising prices, with specific stocks recommended for investment due to their potential for significant returns [7] - For Zhongchong Co., the growth in domestic and international markets suggests a positive outlook for future performance [9] - Dipu Technology's focus on AI and computing networks positions it well for future growth, with an adjusted earnings forecast indicating a strong potential for profitability [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with passenger car retail sales exceeding expectations, while tourism demand continues to rise, and movie box office revenues showing a decline. Manufacturing activity is improving, but construction demand remains weak, leading to price increases in steel and coal due to anti-involution expectations [1]. Group 1: Consumer Market - Passenger car retail sales showed a significant increase in June, with a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, surpassing previous expectations, although dealer inventory pressure is slightly rising, indicating uncertainty in the sustainability of this growth [2]. - Real estate sales are declining, with a 25.9% year-on-year decrease in transaction area across 30 major cities, and a more pronounced drop in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. - Service consumption is mixed, with tourism demand increasing, reflected in a 1.6% month-on-month rise in the tourism consumption price index in Hainan, while movie box office revenues fell by 39.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector is facing weak demand, impacting building activity, while anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rebound in steel prices despite weak demand [3]. - Manufacturing activity is improving, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical industries, and a rise in asphalt production, suggesting resilience in infrastructure construction demand [3]. - Resource prices are affected by seasonal temperature increases leading to higher coal consumption, with coal prices continuing to rise amid tightening supply expectations [3]. Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand is on the rise, with a 3.8% month-on-month increase in the migration scale index and a 1.6% increase in domestic flight operations week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4]. - Freight logistics are also showing growth, with a 0.2% increase in highway truck traffic and a 1.5% increase in railway freight volume week-on-week, alongside a year-on-year growth of 15.9% in postal express collection [4]. - Maritime transport prices are recovering, with slight fluctuations in domestic port cargo and container throughput, indicating ongoing activity in the shipping sector [4].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference focused on the pet food industry, highlighting the strong growth momentum and the rise of domestic brands in the market [3][20]. - The competitive landscape shows a shift with domestic brands gaining market share, particularly in the pet food sector [3][20]. Key Points and Arguments - **Profit Growth**: Companies like Lusi and Peddy reported profit growth rates of 45%, 69%, and 15% respectively, indicating a robust performance across the sector [2]. - **Domestic Market Performance**: The domestic market for pet food is thriving, with brands like Guobao and Zhongchong showing significant revenue increases. Guobao's domestic revenue reached 3.55 billion, a 24% year-on-year growth, while Zhongchong's revenue was 1.414 billion, growing by 30.3% [6][9]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: In the top 20 pet food brands, foreign brands still hold 6 to 7 positions, but domestic brands are rapidly rising, especially during major sales events like Double Eleven [4][3]. - **Mainstream Products**: The pet food market is primarily driven by staple foods, which account for over 80% of the market share, while snacks only represent about 8% [7]. - **High Profit Margins**: Staple foods generally have higher profit margins compared to snacks due to lower labor requirements in production [8]. Emerging Trends - **Domestic Brand Growth**: There is a strong expectation for domestic brands to continue growing, with projections suggesting Guobao could achieve over 20% growth in the next few years [9]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: Changes in tariffs, particularly from the U.S., are creating opportunities for domestic brands to fill the gap left by foreign imports, especially in the high-end market segment [12][14]. - **Export Growth**: The pet food export market is also expanding, with a 20% growth reported in 2024, driven mainly by snack products [15]. Additional Insights - **Product Innovation**: Companies are focusing on product innovation and marketing strategies to enhance their market presence, with positive feedback on new product lines like broth series [11]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights Zhongchong and Guobao as key players to watch, with Zhongchong's U.S. factory providing a competitive edge in the export market [16][17]. - **Pharmaceutical Sector**: The pet pharmaceutical market is also noted as an area of interest, with companies like Ruipu Biological showing promise in pet medicine and supply chain management [20]. Conclusion - The pet food industry is experiencing a vibrant phase of growth, driven by domestic brands and changing market dynamics. The focus on staple foods, innovative products, and strategic responses to tariff changes are key factors contributing to this positive outlook [18][19].

Group 1 - The real estate market remains weak, impacting construction demand, but there is an expectation of supply tightening in cyclical industries due to government policies against low-price competition, leading to a marginal improvement in prices for steel and coal [1][3] - Summer consumption has shown signs of improvement, with notable increases in tourism, movie attendance, and passenger transport, while pork prices have risen significantly, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [1][2] - Manufacturing activity is showing mixed results, with a decline in automotive production due to rising dealer inventory pressures, while chemical and asphalt production remains resilient, reflecting some stability in construction demand [1][3] Group 2 - Real estate sales continue to decline, with a 24.6% year-on-year drop in transaction volume across 30 major cities, while second-hand housing transactions in key cities also fell by 11.8% [2] - The automotive market is experiencing a slight increase in sales, driven by summer self-driving demand, although dealer inventory pressures are rising, as indicated by a 3.9% increase in the inventory warning index [2] - Service consumption is on the rise, with a 2.7% increase in tourism prices in Hainan and a 3.1% year-on-year increase in movie box office revenue, suggesting a potential rebound in consumer sentiment [2] Group 3 - The cyclical industry is experiencing heightened expectations for supply tightening, with a slight increase in rebar demand and a rebound in steel prices, while cement prices continue to decline [3] - Manufacturing activity is showing significant divergence, with automotive production rates declining, while chemical production rates are increasing, indicating varying levels of demand across sectors [3] - Resource prices are rising due to increased electricity consumption and tightening supply expectations, with coal prices continuing to rise amid changing monetary policy expectations [3] Group 4 - Passenger transport demand has increased, with metro ridership up by 1.1% week-on-week and domestic flight operations increasing by 6.1% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4] - However, export activities are facing challenges, with a decline in freight volumes and shipping prices, likely influenced by fluctuating international tariff policies [4] - Overall logistics performance shows a mixed picture, with a decrease in highway and rail freight volumes, while express delivery volumes remain strong year-on-year [4]

Core Insights - The fifth TOPS Dealer Empowerment Summit was held in Shanghai, gathering over 200 frontline pet dealers to explore ways to enhance operational efficiency [3] - A presentation titled "Annual Research and Analysis of the Current Situation of Pet Dealers in China" was delivered by the founder of Pet Industry Home and the Expo [5] Financial Performance - The average annual revenue for pet dealers in 2024 is projected to be 17 million, with a median revenue of 14 million [6] - The average revenue per employee for dealers is 1.54 million [8] - Dealers can be categorized into three profit margin tiers: - Tier 1 (over 25% margin): 8.5% of dealers - Tier 2 (15%-24% margin): 83% of dealers - Tier 3 (below 15% margin): 8.5% of dealers [8] - Tier 2 dealers contribute 82% of total revenue, while Tier 3 contributes 16.6%, and Tier 1 contributes only 3% [8] Business Strategies - High-margin dealers focus on premium products and exceptional service but are smaller in scale and need to expand their product categories and channels [10] - Mid-margin dealers aim to expand their scale and product categories based on user profiles [10] - Low-margin dealers face challenges from declining old brands and rising cost pressures [10] Market Trends - The profitability of pet dealers has shifted from relying on information asymmetry to efficiency-based models [11] - The fastest-growing dealers now depend on operational efficiency and quick turnover, with warehouse turnover times reduced from 60 days to 30 days [11] - Future competition among dealers will center on operational efficiency rather than brand relationships or customer maintenance [13] - The industry is moving towards extreme efficiency competition, similar to fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sectors, necessitating early optimization of operations [13]

Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - Wenzhou Yuanfei Pet Toy Products Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.31 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.16% [4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 335 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 36.3% [4] - The overseas revenue reached 1.124 billion CNY, marking a 27.15% increase compared to the previous year [4] Group 2: Product Categories and Profitability - Pet leashes generated a revenue of 455,985 CNY with a gross margin of 23.20%, showing a slight increase of 0.56% year-on-year [4] - Pet snacks achieved a revenue of 606,609 CNY and a gross margin of 28.17%, reflecting an 8% increase year-on-year [4] - Other pet products reported a revenue of 196,419 CNY with a gross margin of 60.18%, indicating a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Market Expansion - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity with new factories planned in Cambodia and Bangladesh [3][5] - It has established a domestic sales channel and is gradually launching its own brands, including PIKAPOO, Halawei, and Legend Elf, targeting different consumer needs [7][8] - The company has built a domestic team of over 100 people to support brand operations following the acquisition of Hangzhou Feiyuan Network Technology Co., Ltd. [7] Group 4: Market Trends and Competitive Position - The global pet industry is experiencing stable growth, benefiting the company through its OEM/ODM model with international retail chains [5] - The diversification of product categories and continuous innovation have strengthened the company's competitive edge in the market [6][7]

Core Insights - Petty Co. reported a revenue of 1.659 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and achieved a net profit of 182 million yuan, reversing previous losses [1] - The gross margin for 2024 improved to 29.4%, an increase of over 10 percentage points, attributed to product structure optimization and enhanced capacity utilization in overseas bases [1] - The company experienced fluctuations in quarterly performance, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 revenues of 336 million yuan (down 32.1% year-on-year) and 329 million yuan (down 14.4% year-on-year), respectively, influenced by customer order volatility [1] Business Segments - Revenue from various business segments in 2024 included: - Pet skin chew toys: 505 million yuan (+19.1%) - Plant-based chew toys: 608 million yuan (+43.7%) - Nutritional meat snacks: 403 million yuan (+26.6%) - Staple food: 118 million yuan (-43.6%) [1] - The Cambodian factory significantly improved its profitability, achieving a net profit of 51 million yuan with a profit margin of 14.3% in 2024, compared to a loss in 2023 [2] - The New Zealand facility has commenced production of 40,000 tons of high-quality staple food, with expected capacity release of 20%-30% in 2025 [2] Market Strategy - The company has successfully shifted nearly all U.S. customer orders to Southeast Asian factories to mitigate tariff fluctuations, leveraging its global production layout [2] - In the domestic market, Petty Co. achieved sales revenue of 288 million yuan in 2024, primarily driven by its own brands, which saw a 33% revenue growth, with the Jueyan brand growing by 52% [2] - The gross margin for domestic sales reached 31.7%, reflecting an improvement of 8.04 percentage points, indicating enhanced profitability [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Petty Co. from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1.914 billion yuan, 2.163 billion yuan, and 2.387 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15.34%, 13.04%, and 10.37%, respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 199 million yuan, 221 million yuan, and 251 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 9.16%, 11.15%, and 13.53% [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18.85x, 16.96x, and 14.94x, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue reached 1.31 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 32.16%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 164 million CNY, up 30.24% [4] - For 2025, projected revenue is 335 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 36.3%, while net profit is expected to be 25.37 million CNY, a decrease of 30.57% [4] Market Strategy - The company implements a dual-drive strategy, promoting simultaneous growth in both domestic and international markets, resulting in a 27.15% increase in overseas revenue (1.12 billion CNY) and a 73.38% increase in domestic revenue (186 million CNY) in 2024 [4] - The company has established two factories in Cambodia, focusing on pet food and pet supplies, which helps mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on its business [5] Production Efficiency - Cambodia's geographical advantages allow for effective control of raw material costs, and the availability of a skilled labor force helps reduce labor costs [6] - The company has been enhancing employee training in its Cambodian factories since 2020, leading to improved production efficiency [6] Brand Development - The company launched three proprietary brands in 2024: PIKAPOO, Halawei, and Legend Elf, each targeting different consumer needs and market segments [7] - PIKAPOO focuses on high-cost performance products, Halawei emphasizes functional pet care, and Legend Elf targets high-end nutrition, aiming to increase brand influence and domestic market sales [7]