宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 —— 美伊冲突，影响几何？ 美伊冲突，影响几何？ 研究结论 风险提示 地缘局势存在不断变化的可能，美伊冲突的烈度与时长存在不确定性。 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | --- | --- | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 刘姜枫 | 执业证书编号：S0860526010002 | | | liujiangfeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S086052 ...

今天的A股，是不是让你真切体会到了什么叫冰火两重天？大家好，我是帮主郑重，一个做了20年财经 记者的中长线投资者。 咱们先看今天的盘面，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指低开高走，最终收涨0.41%，深成指微跌0.06%，创业 板指跌了1.04%，全天成交额2.5万亿出头，比上个交易日缩了500多亿，但是大家注意，全市场超3200 只个股是上涨的，这说明什么？说明今天根本不是赚指数的行情，是赚个股的结构性行情，只要你踩对 了方向，今天大概率是吃肉的，踩错了方向，可能就是赚了指数不赚钱，甚至还亏了钱。 还有最重要的一点，就是仓位控制，我跟了A股20年，见过太多人，因为满仓追涨杀跌，最后亏得一塌 糊涂。现在的行情，是典型的结构性分化行情，不是普涨普跌的牛市，所以下周，绝对不要满仓操作， 仓位控制在5到7成就足够了，进可攻退可守，剩下的仓位，留着应对回调的低吸机会，或者用来做T降 低成本，不要把所有的鸡蛋，都放在同一个篮子里，均衡配置，才能在震荡市里走得更稳。 今天领涨全场的，就是大家最近都在关注的稀土、小金属、稀有金属板块，章源钨业、云南锗业、翔鹭 钨业、北方稀土这些个股，好多都创出了历史新高，很多朋友问，为什么涨得这么凶？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic outlook of foreign investment banks towards China's economy in 2026, suggesting a favorable environment for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to policy support, improving corporate profits, and capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "N" shaped trend in 2026, with a continuation of the upward trend from late last year into the Spring Festival [2] - External liquidity easing may be nearing its end, and while the AI industry shows medium-term promise, short-term discrepancies between reality and expectations may impact the market [2] - Despite potential market fluctuations in the second quarter, the upward trend of the A-share market is likely to remain intact due to the ongoing recovery of domestic demand [2] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - Investors should pay attention to the development of the AI industry, particularly innovations in AI applications, as this is crucial for the A-share market in 2026 [3] - Marginal improvements in China's macroeconomy, including real estate and consumption, are also significant, with indicators showing positive trends [3] - The relationship between global re-inflation and liquidity is important, as the global inflation cycle is ahead of China's, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be key indicators to watch [3] Group 3: Capital Inflows - The overall upward trend in the market since the "924" rally has created a profit-making effect, attracting more capital recognition towards A-shares due to China's competitive advantages and economic resilience [3] - There is a clear trend of incremental capital inflows into A-shares, with both domestic and foreign investors viewing opportunities as outweighing risks [3] Group 4: Currency and Asset Revaluation - The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to be sustained, positively impacting the capital market [4] - The expectation of RMB appreciation may lead to a return of funds previously allocated to global assets, contributing to a potential "Asset Revaluation 2.0" in China [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in three areas: the AI industry, particularly infrastructure and hardware; cyclical sectors with ongoing commodity price increases; and the pharmaceutical sector, which may benefit from AI advancements [6] - The technology sector is highlighted as requiring careful selection for investment, with significant opportunities anticipated in technology, cyclical sectors, real estate, and certain consumer segments [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 3.61 points, a 0.09% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 49.69 points, down 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 35.80 points, down 1.08% [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell below 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 31 trading days, with over 3,200 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The chemical sector has shown strong performance recently, with stocks like Jihua Group hitting the limit up for four out of five days, and other companies such as Taihe New Materials and Baichuan Co. also reaching the limit up [1] - The glass fiber sector experienced a surge, with leading companies like International Composites and China Jushi hitting the limit up due to price increases for electronic cloth [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, particularly tungsten concepts, with Xianglu Tungsten Industry hitting the limit up [1] - The tourism sector declined, with Haikan Co. dropping over 11% [1] Price Increase Themes - The strongest market theme was the "price increase," with small metals, dyes, and electronic cloth driving the surge in the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant gains, particularly in gold, zinc, and copper, driven by global supply chain restructuring and the rise of emerging industries [2] - The chemical and dye sectors continued to rise, with Zhejiang Longsheng's dye prices increasing by 5,000 yuan per ton [2] Emerging Themes - The electronic cloth theme emerged strongly, with International Composites and China Jushi both hitting the limit up [3] - The commercial aerospace sector showed signs of recovery, with companies like Zengsheng Technology hitting the limit up, supported by upcoming rocket launches and a commercial aerospace industry development conference [3] - The computing power leasing concept also saw gains, with Nanjing Xingsheng hitting the limit up, driven by positive sentiment from Cloudflare's strong performance in the US market [3] Institutional Insights - Minsheng Securities noted that the market is likely to shift towards small and medium growth stocks as the holiday effect approaches, suggesting to seize opportunities before the Spring Festival [4] - BlackRock's CIO emphasized that the continuation of the A-share bull market depends on four conditions, including liquidity, profit realization, policy support, and reduced geopolitical risks [4] - China Galaxy Securities highlighted the potential for significant box office releases during the upcoming Spring Festival, while also noting advancements in AI video tools that could empower the film industry [4]

2026年开年首月，A股市场结构性行情特征凸显，其中有色金属板块无疑是今年以来A股市场最受关注 的行业之一。对此，深耕周期赛道八年的长城基金基金经理陈子扬保持冷静，在景气与估值的平衡中寻 找优质标的。 陈子扬2017年研究生毕业后便加入长城基金研究部，自此扎根周期领域，构建自己的"能力圈"。2023年 8月，他正式开启基金管理生涯，目前共管理3只产品，均为偏周期风格。谈及对周期的理解，陈子扬强 调，短期波动只是噪音，对投资结果没有太多积极影响，长期投资需要耐心与理性，不能追逐短期弹 性，要敬畏周期规律，在低估时布局，在高估时离场，才能在周期波动中实现长期盈利。 对于周期行业的投资机会，陈子扬表示，今年的思路之一，是在周期板块中寻找相对估值洼地的机会， 他对于铜、铝持阶段性偏谨慎态度，但是对于黄金、小金属偏乐观。"预计今年美国可能还会继续降 息，在相对动荡的地缘环境中各国央行还在继续购金，驱动黄金上涨的动力还在。而相较于判断黄金价 格的短期波动，黄金股的投资价值更值得看好，从当前金价水平看，相关公司的自由现金流处于较好的 状态。"陈子扬分析称。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant volatility, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact according to Shangyin Fund, supported by three main factors [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The global backdrop of "asset scarcity" continues, coupled with frequent geopolitical conflicts, which sustains the long-term trend of "patient capital" flowing into the stock market [1]. - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are being implemented, leading to improved expectations for corporate profitability, which provides a stabilizing effect on the capital market [1]. - The recent rapid adjustments in market sectors are primarily reactions to short-term market sentiment and trading dynamics, rather than fundamental changes, thus not undermining the medium to long-term upward trend [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities can be categorized into three areas: 1. AI-related industries, where domestic policies are supporting the AI industry chain, and capital expenditure in global computing power is expected to expand, with a focus on domestic computing chains and AI in gaming [2]. 2. The enhancement of Chinese brand competitiveness, transitioning from "cheap goods" to "high-quality and cost-effective" products, with notable advancements in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, power equipment, and construction machinery [2]. 3. Resource sectors, particularly copper and minor metals, which possess genuine scarcity and anti-inflation properties, forming stable supply alliances and showcasing significant long-term investment value [2]. - The adjustment in the non-ferrous metals sector, which has seen significant prior gains and high congestion, is viewed as a necessary period for digestion rather than a fundamental downturn, with potential for attractive buying opportunities post-adjustment [2].

2026年A股年度策略报告 2026年2月3日 AI 兴，再通胀，驭慢牛 2026年A股年度策略报告 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640515120001 庞庞庞庞庞010-59562478 庞庞庞dongzy@avicsec .com 2 ➢ 全球政经格局来看 ，2025 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 ➢ 从大类资产中长期角度看 ，2025年进一步确认了全球两大趋势 ，即逆全球化与 AI科技革命，未来或将至少持续 5-10年。 美元或已进入长期贬值周期 ，全球商品有望进入新一轮 "超级周期"，黄金、铜以及部分小金属等资源品价格或将持 续上涨。 ➢ 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 股有望步入长 ...

（记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，华钰矿业1月27日晚间发布业绩预告，预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 为8亿元~9亿元。与上年同期相比，预计将增加约5.47亿元~6.47亿元，同比增加215.8%~255.28%。业绩 变动主要原因是，主营业务影响。报告期内，国内外有色金属市场需求旺盛，价格持续走高。在此背景 下，公司充分受益于贵金属以及小金属市场的持续景气，带动公司营业收入实现同比大幅增长。非经常 性损益的影响。公司前期收购亚太矿业40%股权投资在购买日按照公允价值重新计量产生的投资收益属 于非经常性损益，进而非经常性损益同比大幅增加。其他影响。公司不存在其他对业绩预增构成重大影 响的因素。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——国际金价冲破5000美元！7年涨了280%，什么时候才见顶？专家：关键还 看美元，重点关注国际货币体系、降息和科技革命 ...

报告期内，国内外有色金属市场需求旺盛，价格持续走高。在此背景下，公司充分受益于贵金属以及小 金属市场的持续景气，带动公司营业收入实现同比大幅增长。 华钰矿业（601020）(601020.SH)发布公告，公司预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为8 亿元到9亿元，同比增加215.80%到255.28%。 ...

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.21%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and ChiNext Index up 0.48% on January 26, 2023, driven by sectors like non-ferrous metals and photovoltaic [1] - Recent market dynamics show a divergence in fund flows, with over 570 billion yuan exiting broad-based ETFs while approximately 110 billion yuan flowed into thematic industry ETFs, indicating a positive overall market sentiment [2] - The focus remains on "technology + resource products" as key investment themes, with sectors like AI semiconductors, new energy, and non-ferrous metals showing strong performance and growth potential [2] Group 2 - The spring market is expected to progress, with key themes including commercial aerospace and AI applications, alongside a focus on price increase chains driven by supply-demand mismatches [3] - The current price increase trend is supported by the expansion of AI hardware chains and upstream raw material chains benefiting from supply gaps, such as lithium carbonate and PTA [3] - The global shift in commodity prices, particularly in gold and silver, suggests a need to adjust pricing frameworks for scarce physical assets and core equity assets due to declining currency value [4]