Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights a comprehensive increase in precious metal prices, driven by rising risk aversion and ongoing global central bank gold purchases, with expectations for sustained gold price growth due to anticipated interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector reported revenues of 126.58 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.15%, and a net profit of 6.86 billion yuan, up 41.93% [1][3]. - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has heightened risk aversion, contributing to a continuous upward trend in gold prices [1][3]. - The expectation of ongoing global central bank gold purchases is anticipated to support gold prices, with a focus on gold ETF allocations and key stocks such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [1][3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a price increase of 5.50% in Q2 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by rising industrial and precious metal prices [2]. - Copper prices rebounded due to supply shortages and increased electrical demand, with copper mining and smelting companies reporting revenues of 427.52 billion yuan, up 20.41%, and a net profit of 22.97 billion yuan, up 18.19% [2]. - The aluminum sector showed resilience with revenues of 113.71 billion yuan, a 6.29% increase, and net profits of 9.60 billion yuan, up 11.40%, supported by strong fundamentals and declining coal prices [2]. Group 3: Rare Earths and Specialty Metals - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue increase of 3.94% in Q2 2025, with net profits rising by 14.57%, driven by price increases and supply chain reforms [3]. - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 432,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.56% increase [3]. - The small metals sector reported a revenue increase of 20.46% and a net profit increase of 13.99%, with significant price increases in molybdenum, tungsten, antimony, and tin [4]. Group 4: Lithium and Nickel-Cobalt - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues of 25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, while net profits increased by 21% [4]. - The nickel-cobalt sector saw revenue growth of 28% year-on-year, with net profits of 2.65 billion yuan, indicating an improvement in profitability [4]. Group 5: New Materials - The new materials sector reported a revenue increase of 12.53% and a net profit increase of 25.86% in Q2 2025, driven by technological innovation and domestic substitution [5].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of resource commodities is gaining consensus in the market amid rising de-globalization trends, with a significant commodity market rally since 2020, covering various resources from coal to gold, copper, silver, and rare earths [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The new fund manager of Western Lide Fund, Guan Haoyang, emphasizes that supply is more critical than demand at this investment juncture, and beta is more important than individual stocks [1][6] - Guan believes that the ongoing commodity market rally, which has been active for five years, still presents opportunities as resource commodities transition from "cyclical goods" to "strategic assets" [1][6] Group 2: Research Background - Guan has focused on cyclical stock research since entering the industry in 2016, expanding his expertise from steel to various sectors including construction, materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and coal over nine years [2] - He has developed a comprehensive research framework for cyclical commodities, recognizing the high barriers between different sub-industries [2] Group 3: Resource Classification - Guan categorizes resource stocks into four types: 1. **Cyclical Assets**: Assets with explosive performance during uptrends, such as gold and silver, where price tracking is crucial [4] 2. **Thematic Assets**: Assets like rare earths that are rising in price but have not yet shown performance, focusing on price trends and market sentiment [4] 3. **Value Assets**: Stable price assets with low valuations, such as copper, where company growth and valuation matching are key [5] 4. **Dividend Assets**: Stable price assets with high dividend yields, like oil and coal, where finding assets with potential dividend recovery is essential [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Guan assesses that the current commodity cycle, which began in 2020, still holds potential due to rigid supply constraints [6] - He identifies three main supply constraints: insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the elevation of resource commodities to strategic assets through administrative measures by various countries [6][7] - The restructuring of supply chains driven by de-globalization is expected to create long-term benefits for industrial metals like copper [7]

投资逻辑 25Q1 有色金属板块涨幅 11.96%，涨幅超过沪深 300 指数;受美国关税影响，避险需求提升及抢出口，工业金属贵金属 价格上涨，带动板块内企业业绩增长及板块表现领先。 铜：铜供应紧缺叠加美国抢库存，Q1 铜价上行。铜矿及冶炼企业 25Q1 营收 3550.42 亿元，环比-7.81%；归母净利润 194.36 亿元，环比+22.34%；铜加工板块 25Q1 营收 712.83 亿元，环比-6.91%；归母净利润 11.08 亿元，环比+85.03%。 美国关税所带来的抢出口需求及海外矿企下调产量指引，推动商品价格提升。 铝：氧化铝价格下行，吨铝盈利显著提升。25Q1 电解铝板块营收 1069.79 亿元，环比-8.32%亿元；归母净利润 86.18 亿元，环比+14.18%；25Q1 铝加工板块营收 504.25 亿元，环比-9.83%；归母净利润 17.66 亿元，环比+42.69%。氧化 铝价格下行叠加美国关税预期带来的抢出口需求，吨铝利润快速释放，标的云铝股份、神火股份、南山铝业、中国铝 业等。 贵金属：金价上涨推动业绩提升。25Q1 贵金属板块营收 1011.43 亿元，环比+19.0 ...

中金公司 周期半月谈——两会政策背景下周期板块的逻辑 演绎 20250310 摘要 Q&A 两会期间财政政策和货币政策对经济的影响有哪些？ 两会期间，财政政策总体符合市场预期，特别国债从去年（2024 年）的 1 万亿 提升到 1.3 万亿，专项地方债从 3.9 万亿提到 4.4 万亿。这些措施在国债和地 方债层面都有所扩展，对经济有一定刺激作用。预算内的赤字率为 4%，加上特 别国债和专项地方债后的广义赤字率接近 8%，这一水平在中国历史上较高，仅 次于 2020 年疫情爆发时的高位。 财政政策从积极转向更加积极，特别国债重 点支持"两重两轻"，即企业端设备以新换旧和居民端消费品以旧换新，如家 • 中国财政政策转向更加积极，广义赤字率接近 8%，为历史较高水平，重点 支持企业设备更新和居民消费品以旧换新，利好汽车、家电等化工下游行 业，有望推动化工品需求增长。 • 货币政策适度宽松但受汇率约束，未来可能择机降准降息以应对出口下行 和物价风险。居民就业和收入偏弱导致储蓄增加，需进一步提振经济。 • 化工行业资本开支已开始下降，预计 2025 年下半年快速扩张产能步入尾声， 有助于行业景气度回升。能源成本下降缓 ...

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [5] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [5] Core Insights - March is a traditional peak season for steel, with expectations for gradual recovery in demand from the construction sector, supported by automotive and other industries. Steel prices may rebound due to demand, but actual recovery needs to be monitored alongside domestic macro policies and foreign tariff impacts [1][14]. - Copper supply remains tight, providing price support. The "Two New" policies are expected to stimulate consumption, and if demand rebounds, copper prices may have upward potential. Attention should be paid to domestic macro policies and actual demand data, as well as potential new tariffs on copper imports from the U.S. [2][25]. - Aluminum prices have seen a significant decline in February, but profits for electrolytic aluminum companies are expected to improve. March is also a traditional peak season, and if downstream demand recovers well, inventory levels may turn around [2][27]. - Lithium demand is expected to gradually recover in March, but supply remains loose, leading to a weak price outlook [33]. - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to a four-month export suspension of cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has increased purchasing willingness in the downstream market [2][37]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain in a range due to oversupply and inventory pressure, with attention needed on policies from Indonesia and the Philippines [2][39]. Summary by Sections Steel - The PMI index for the steel industry in February was 45.1%, indicating contraction but a 1.8 percentage point increase from the previous month. Steel production is stabilizing post-holiday, but demand recovery is slower than supply [14][15]. - In December 2024, national apparent steel consumption was 109.99 million tons, a 0.01% decrease month-on-month but an 8.45% increase year-on-year [15]. - In December 2024, crude steel production was 75.97 million tons, a 3.10% decrease month-on-month but an 11.80% increase year-on-year [16]. Copper - In December 2024, refined copper production was 1.24 million tons, a 9.62% increase month-on-month and a 6.24% increase year-on-year [25]. - LME copper prices increased by 3.45% to $9,400 per ton, while domestic prices rose by 2.23% to ¥76,900 per ton [25]. Aluminum - In December 2024, domestic alumina production was 7.51 million tons, a 0.65% decrease month-on-month but a 9.70% increase year-on-year [27]. - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.80% to $2,600 per ton, while domestic prices rose by 2.44% to ¥20,600 per ton [27]. Lithium - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell by 3.14% to ¥75,600 per ton [33]. - Domestic lithium production in January was 35,100 tons, a 9.37% decrease year-on-year [33]. Cobalt - The average price of 1 cobalt increased by 5.99% to ¥177,000 per ton [37]. - Domestic sulfuric acid cobalt production in January was 19,900 tons, a 24.79% decrease year-on-year [37]. Nickel - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.29% to $15,500 per ton, while domestic nickel sulfate prices fell by 0.68% to ¥29,100 per ton [39]. - Domestic electrolytic nickel production in January was 30,000 tons, an 18.70% increase year-on-year [39]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Prices for rare earths such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 6.99% to ¥444,000 per ton [41]. - Tungsten concentrate prices decreased by 1.38% to ¥143,000 per ton [44].