站在当前时点，管浩阳表示，投资资源股，供给比需求重要，贝塔也比个股重要。这场已启动5年的大 宗商品行情可能仍有机会，资源品正从"周期商品"向"战略资产"蜕变。 管浩阳分析称：在需求端，资源品需求的长期驱动力，主要是在能源转型的背景下，带来新能源车、风 电、光伏及储能等新兴领域的高增长；而人工智能、机器人产业的发展，有望进一步拉动铜、铝、锂、 钴等金属需求。在供给端，由于资本开支不足，普遍面临增速缓慢、品位下降、事故频发等问题，导致 供应情况趋于紧张。 管浩阳表示，在资源品中，比较看好铜的投资机会：铜作为重要的工业原料，其需求与全球经济走势密 切相关，随着新能源、电网投资等领域持续发展，铜的需求有望保持稳定增长；在供给方面，由于铜矿 资本开支的放缓和矿石品位的下滑，未来铜的供给增长将受到限制。供需错配下，预计未来铜价中枢将 继续抬升。 西部利得基金管浩阳：资源品战略价值值得重视 管浩阳称，国内电解铝产能即将达峰，经营性现金流大幅好转，行业开启红利化趋势。同时，电解铝企 业股息率较高，且具备继续提升的空间。 ◎记者 何漪 受美联储降息、供需关系变化等多重因素影响，近年来周期行业表现强势。作为战略性品种，资源品的 ...

近年来，"趋势"与"拐点"成为投资界最为高频的关键词。在风云变幻的时代里，个体如何站在大局中辨方向？如何在不确定性中找机会？ 金融市场复杂多变，投资者如何拨开重重迷雾，寻觅机遇，挖掘出那一缕代表着希望的光线？ 刚刚读完时寒冰的《时寒冰说：全球视野下的投资机会》，让我的心里豁然开朗。 这本书是时寒冰8月份刚上市的新书，书中的内容紧跟当下的时事，帮我们分析了未来很长一段时间值得去关注的趋势。 它既不像一般投资书那样止于技法，也不仅是眼前行情解读，而是试图从极具厚度的历史、资本、地缘与稀缺视角，重构一个面向未来的投资框架。 从时代背景看，这本书诞生于后疫情时代、全球地缘博弈加剧、货币宽松与通胀、产业链重塑、能源转型、大宗商品波动等叠加不确定性极强的时代。 对作者而言，这是一次用思考回应时代的尝试，也是希望给读者在未来十年、二十年里提供一个相对清晰的方向坐标。 他以货币、贸易、资源、人口、消费等关键指标为线索，深入剖析当今世界的重要趋势，比如人工智能技术崛起、新能源革命、全球产业大转移、货币体系 重构等。 他抽丝剥茧，探寻趋势产生的背景、原理与逻辑，为广大投资者揭示了黄金、白银、核电、美股、美债、中药材、小金属等领域 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan Research indicates that Zhongmin Resources' business primarily includes lithium salts, minor metals, and copper, and employs a segment valuation method to analyze the company's value [1] Summary by Sections - **Profit Forecast**: The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 445 million, 1.063 billion, and 1.733 billion yuan respectively [1] - **Growth Contribution**: Starting from 2026, new projects in minor metals and copper are expected to contribute significantly to growth, with the contributions to net profit from lithium salts, minor metals, and copper in 2026 estimated at approximately 177 million, 725 million, and 161 million yuan respectively [1] - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is assigned price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28x for lithium salts, 41x for minor metals, and 14x for copper for the year 2026, leading to a target market value of 36.8 billion yuan for 2026 [1] - **Market Potential**: The target market value of 36.8 billion yuan represents a 17.36% upside potential compared to the current market value of 31.4 billion yuan, prompting a first-time coverage with an "overweight" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights a comprehensive increase in precious metal prices, driven by rising risk aversion and ongoing global central bank gold purchases, with expectations for sustained gold price growth due to anticipated interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector reported revenues of 126.58 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.15%, and a net profit of 6.86 billion yuan, up 41.93% [1][3]. - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has heightened risk aversion, contributing to a continuous upward trend in gold prices [1][3]. - The expectation of ongoing global central bank gold purchases is anticipated to support gold prices, with a focus on gold ETF allocations and key stocks such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [1][3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a price increase of 5.50% in Q2 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by rising industrial and precious metal prices [2]. - Copper prices rebounded due to supply shortages and increased electrical demand, with copper mining and smelting companies reporting revenues of 427.52 billion yuan, up 20.41%, and a net profit of 22.97 billion yuan, up 18.19% [2]. - The aluminum sector showed resilience with revenues of 113.71 billion yuan, a 6.29% increase, and net profits of 9.60 billion yuan, up 11.40%, supported by strong fundamentals and declining coal prices [2]. Group 3: Rare Earths and Specialty Metals - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue increase of 3.94% in Q2 2025, with net profits rising by 14.57%, driven by price increases and supply chain reforms [3]. - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 432,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.56% increase [3]. - The small metals sector reported a revenue increase of 20.46% and a net profit increase of 13.99%, with significant price increases in molybdenum, tungsten, antimony, and tin [4]. Group 4: Lithium and Nickel-Cobalt - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues of 25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, while net profits increased by 21% [4]. - The nickel-cobalt sector saw revenue growth of 28% year-on-year, with net profits of 2.65 billion yuan, indicating an improvement in profitability [4]. Group 5: New Materials - The new materials sector reported a revenue increase of 12.53% and a net profit increase of 25.86% in Q2 2025, driven by technological innovation and domestic substitution [5].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of resource commodities is gaining consensus in the market amid rising de-globalization trends, with a significant commodity market rally since 2020, covering various resources from coal to gold, copper, silver, and rare earths [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The new fund manager of Western Lide Fund, Guan Haoyang, emphasizes that supply is more critical than demand at this investment juncture, and beta is more important than individual stocks [1][6] - Guan believes that the ongoing commodity market rally, which has been active for five years, still presents opportunities as resource commodities transition from "cyclical goods" to "strategic assets" [1][6] Group 2: Research Background - Guan has focused on cyclical stock research since entering the industry in 2016, expanding his expertise from steel to various sectors including construction, materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and coal over nine years [2] - He has developed a comprehensive research framework for cyclical commodities, recognizing the high barriers between different sub-industries [2] Group 3: Resource Classification - Guan categorizes resource stocks into four types: 1. **Cyclical Assets**: Assets with explosive performance during uptrends, such as gold and silver, where price tracking is crucial [4] 2. **Thematic Assets**: Assets like rare earths that are rising in price but have not yet shown performance, focusing on price trends and market sentiment [4] 3. **Value Assets**: Stable price assets with low valuations, such as copper, where company growth and valuation matching are key [5] 4. **Dividend Assets**: Stable price assets with high dividend yields, like oil and coal, where finding assets with potential dividend recovery is essential [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Guan assesses that the current commodity cycle, which began in 2020, still holds potential due to rigid supply constraints [6] - He identifies three main supply constraints: insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the elevation of resource commodities to strategic assets through administrative measures by various countries [6][7] - The restructuring of supply chains driven by de-globalization is expected to create long-term benefits for industrial metals like copper [7]

投资逻辑 25Q1 有色金属板块涨幅 11.96%，涨幅超过沪深 300 指数;受美国关税影响，避险需求提升及抢出口，工业金属贵金属 价格上涨，带动板块内企业业绩增长及板块表现领先。 铜：铜供应紧缺叠加美国抢库存，Q1 铜价上行。铜矿及冶炼企业 25Q1 营收 3550.42 亿元，环比-7.81%；归母净利润 194.36 亿元，环比+22.34%；铜加工板块 25Q1 营收 712.83 亿元，环比-6.91%；归母净利润 11.08 亿元，环比+85.03%。 美国关税所带来的抢出口需求及海外矿企下调产量指引，推动商品价格提升。 铝：氧化铝价格下行，吨铝盈利显著提升。25Q1 电解铝板块营收 1069.79 亿元，环比-8.32%亿元；归母净利润 86.18 亿元，环比+14.18%；25Q1 铝加工板块营收 504.25 亿元，环比-9.83%；归母净利润 17.66 亿元，环比+42.69%。氧化 铝价格下行叠加美国关税预期带来的抢出口需求，吨铝利润快速释放，标的云铝股份、神火股份、南山铝业、中国铝 业等。 贵金属：金价上涨推动业绩提升。25Q1 贵金属板块营收 1011.43 亿元，环比+19.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical and steel industries, with specific recommendations for companies like Wanhua and Hualu in the chemical sector, and Hualin Steel in the steel sector [3][18][23]. Core Insights - The fiscal policy has shifted to a more aggressive stance, with special government bonds increasing from 1 trillion to 1.3 trillion and local special bonds rising from 3.9 trillion to 4.4 trillion, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [3][4]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand due to supportive policies for equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement, particularly benefiting sectors like automotive and home appliances [3][5]. - The steel industry is transitioning from a growth stabilization focus to supply-side reforms, with a projected reduction in crude steel production of approximately 50 million tons in 2025 [18][20]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - Capital expenditures in the chemical sector have begun to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18% reported in 2024, indicating a potential end to rapid capacity expansion by the second half of 2025 [7]. - Current valuations for leading chemical companies are low, with the CSI Chemical Index's price-to-book ratio at a 20% low since 2012, suggesting potential for significant performance recovery as market conditions improve [9]. - The refrigerant market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints, with prices for certain products reaching 45,000 yuan per ton, supported by government policies promoting demand [10]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is expected to undergo significant production cuts, with a focus on reducing crude steel output by about 50 million tons in 2025, which is crucial for improving profitability in a currently low-margin environment [19][20]. - The report highlights that the steel industry is at a low point in terms of profitability and inventory levels, suggesting a high potential for recovery as production cuts are implemented [21]. - Recommended companies in the steel sector include Hualin Steel, Maanshan Steel, and Baosteel, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated supply-side reforms [18][23]. Logistics and Transportation - The government aims to reduce logistics costs through structural adjustments, promoting rail and water transport over road transport, which is expected to benefit companies in the logistics sector such as China Logistics and China Railway Special Cargo [24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of developing multi-modal transport systems to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, which will positively impact logistics companies [24]. Consumer and Tourism Sectors - The government's initiatives to boost consumer spending, particularly in tourism, are expected to benefit airlines and travel-related companies, with projected growth in passenger volumes for rail and air travel [25][26]. - Companies involved in the tourism and travel sectors, such as China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airport, are likely to see increased demand as consumer confidence improves [26].

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [5] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [5] Core Insights - March is a traditional peak season for steel, with expectations for gradual recovery in demand from the construction sector, supported by automotive and other industries. Steel prices may rebound due to demand, but actual recovery needs to be monitored alongside domestic macro policies and foreign tariff impacts [1][14]. - Copper supply remains tight, providing price support. The "Two New" policies are expected to stimulate consumption, and if demand rebounds, copper prices may have upward potential. Attention should be paid to domestic macro policies and actual demand data, as well as potential new tariffs on copper imports from the U.S. [2][25]. - Aluminum prices have seen a significant decline in February, but profits for electrolytic aluminum companies are expected to improve. March is also a traditional peak season, and if downstream demand recovers well, inventory levels may turn around [2][27]. - Lithium demand is expected to gradually recover in March, but supply remains loose, leading to a weak price outlook [33]. - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to a four-month export suspension of cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has increased purchasing willingness in the downstream market [2][37]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain in a range due to oversupply and inventory pressure, with attention needed on policies from Indonesia and the Philippines [2][39]. Summary by Sections Steel - The PMI index for the steel industry in February was 45.1%, indicating contraction but a 1.8 percentage point increase from the previous month. Steel production is stabilizing post-holiday, but demand recovery is slower than supply [14][15]. - In December 2024, national apparent steel consumption was 109.99 million tons, a 0.01% decrease month-on-month but an 8.45% increase year-on-year [15]. - In December 2024, crude steel production was 75.97 million tons, a 3.10% decrease month-on-month but an 11.80% increase year-on-year [16]. Copper - In December 2024, refined copper production was 1.24 million tons, a 9.62% increase month-on-month and a 6.24% increase year-on-year [25]. - LME copper prices increased by 3.45% to $9,400 per ton, while domestic prices rose by 2.23% to ¥76,900 per ton [25]. Aluminum - In December 2024, domestic alumina production was 7.51 million tons, a 0.65% decrease month-on-month but a 9.70% increase year-on-year [27]. - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.80% to $2,600 per ton, while domestic prices rose by 2.44% to ¥20,600 per ton [27]. Lithium - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell by 3.14% to ¥75,600 per ton [33]. - Domestic lithium production in January was 35,100 tons, a 9.37% decrease year-on-year [33]. Cobalt - The average price of 1 cobalt increased by 5.99% to ¥177,000 per ton [37]. - Domestic sulfuric acid cobalt production in January was 19,900 tons, a 24.79% decrease year-on-year [37]. Nickel - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.29% to $15,500 per ton, while domestic nickel sulfate prices fell by 0.68% to ¥29,100 per ton [39]. - Domestic electrolytic nickel production in January was 30,000 tons, an 18.70% increase year-on-year [39]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Prices for rare earths such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 6.99% to ¥444,000 per ton [41]. - Tungsten concentrate prices decreased by 1.38% to ¥143,000 per ton [44].