货市场风云变幻，每一次价格跳动都暗藏机遇与挑战！无论你是紧盯原油、黄金的趋势交易者，还是深耕农产品、金属的产业客户，这里都为你准备了： 实时行情解读：聚焦持仓变化、资金流向，透视多空博弈本质 策略干货分享：从技术面突破信号到基本面供需拐点，拆解核心交易逻辑 风险预警提示：提 前研判地缘政策、库存数据等潜在黑天鹅事件每日更新 本周文华商品指数的走势耐人寻味。在突破162点关键压力位后，市场未能延续强势表现，指数很快回落至该区间下方，形成技术性假突破信号。 从更大周期看，商品指数自2021年10月见顶后经历了完整的大浪回调，目前正处于新的上升阶段。市场分析认为，指数已走完去年6月至9月的1浪上涨，以 及9月到今年2月的2浪回调，当前3浪上涨才刚刚开始。 指数内部结构呈现明显分化。煤炭板块以坚挺阳线领涨期市，一方面源于供给侧改革预期，另一方面得益于下游钢厂在利润尚可情况下对原料的积极采购。 与之相反，石油板块成为下跌主力军，主要受制于OPEC+将在9月继续加速增产的市场预期。板块间的冰火两重天，映射出当前商品市场的复杂生态。 6月以来，南华商品指数自低点反弹超6%，7月在 "反内卷"政策催化下继续上涨超2%。市场表 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market showed a high opening but closed nearly flat, indicating that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, with future volatility likely to adjust downward. The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to increasing geopolitical conflicts [19][7]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded with three major indices showing a decrease in trading volume, totaling 1.24 trillion, down by 0.26 trillion from the previous day. Approximately 3,400 stocks rose while over 1,500 fell. The report suggests that in the context of weak fundamentals, the probability of a bull market driven by sustained volume is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward. Investors are advised to take profits and shift positions to sectors like dividends, agriculture, and technology [22][2]. - In terms of sector performance, media, communication, and computer sectors led the gains, while agriculture, beauty care, and non-ferrous metals lagged behind. Concepts such as digital currency and Ant Group performed well, while avian influenza and diamond cultivation concepts faced declines [22][2]. Group 3: US Stock Market - The US stock market experienced declines across major indices due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, with the Dow Jones down 1.79%, Nasdaq down 1.3%, and S&P 500 down 1.13%. The report highlights that rising US Treasury yields, which recently surpassed 5%, may negatively impact the market, suggesting that a recession narrative could become a focal point for trading in the future [26][2]. - The report indicates that the US stock market is currently in a phase of head-and-shoulders consolidation, and investors are advised to avoid short-term positions and wait for better buying opportunities [26][2]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1799, a decrease of 15 basis points from the previous close. The RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpectedly positive impacts from US-China trade relations. The offshore RMB shows strong technical signs, with the previous high of 7.42 potentially marking the peak of this depreciation cycle. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [29][3]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.89%, with oils, coal, and petroleum leading the gains, while corn, live pigs, and non-ferrous metals faced declines. Concerns over oil supply disruptions due to escalating conflicts have led to increased prices in the oil sector. However, the report advises a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices, suggesting a wait-and-see strategy [33][3].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase across the board, indicating that the weak fundamentals will limit the height of any potential rise, and future volatility is likely to adjust downward, benefiting from inflows of risk-averse funds [17] - In the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts, the demand for safe-haven assets may lead to a resurgence in bond prices as stock market volatility is expected to increase [17] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a downward trend with a total trading volume of 1.5 trillion, an increase of 0.2 trillion from the previous day, with less than 800 stocks rising and over 4200 stocks declining, reflecting a decrease in market risk appetite due to geopolitical tensions [20] - Investors are advised to take profits and shift positions to sectors such as low-yield dividends, agriculture, and technology, as the likelihood of a bullish market is low under current weak fundamentals [20][21] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market saw slight increases with the Dow Jones up 0.24%, Nasdaq up 0.24%, and S&P 500 up 0.38%, while concerns over rising bond yields and potential recession narratives may present better buying opportunities in the future [24] - The current market is likely in a phase of head consolidation, suggesting that investors should avoid short-term risks and wait for better buying points [24] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1814, a decrease of 13 basis points from the previous close, with expectations for the RMB to rise to around 7.1 due to favorable trade conditions [28] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.93%, with oil, polyester, and coal chemical sectors leading the gains, while construction materials and non-ferrous metals lagged behind, suggesting a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices [32]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a general rise, with expectations that it will benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to low stock market volatility [4][19]. - The A-share market is showing signs of rotation, with a total trading volume of 1.15 trillion, indicating a focus on consumer sectors and a majority of stocks rising [22]. - The U.S. stock market is in a phase of slight upward movement, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices increasing by 0.51%, 0.58%, and 0.81% respectively [29]. Group 2: Asset Class Tracking - The bond market is expected to regain upward momentum as risk aversion increases, particularly if stock market volatility rises [4][19]. - The A-share market is characterized by low volatility and a cautious approach is recommended, especially if indices approach the 3000-point mark [22]. - The foreign exchange market shows the onshore RMB appreciating against the USD, with expectations of reaching around 7.1 [33]. Group 3: Sector Insights - Consumer sectors such as beauty care, beverage manufacturing, and textiles are leading the market, but overall trading volume remains insufficient for sustained growth [22]. - The commodity market is experiencing a rebound, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.72%, although it is still in a bearish trend overall [36]. - The agricultural and high-dividend sectors are highlighted as having stronger certainty for future performance [22].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is experiencing slight increases in short-term rates and slight decreases in long-term rates, with expectations of a small adjustment following the interest rate cut, while the long-term outlook remains bullish due to weak fundamentals driving new highs in the bond market [4][13]. - The A-share market shows a slight upward trend with insufficient trading volume, and it is expected to continue a rotational rise until the trading volume effectively breaks through 1.5 trillion [5][17]. - The U.S. stock market has recovered all losses from the trade war, with the potential for new highs due to upcoming tax cuts and significant stock buybacks by companies like Apple and Google, although concerns about unsustainable debt levels are emerging [23][24]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2035, down 159 basis points, but is expected to appreciate towards 7.1 due to favorable trade conditions [6][26]. - The commodity market saw a 0.28% increase in the Wenhua Commodity Index, with precious metals and feed sectors leading the gains, although the overall structure remains bearish with expectations of continued fluctuations [27][30]. - Important domestic policies include the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations, which is expected to enhance cooperation and market expansion between China and ASEAN countries [34].