Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term support exists due to the possible end of the US government's "shutdown crisis". Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [1] - The risk of tariff and geopolitical disturbances weakens, so does the risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metals are in a volatile correction, and gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Focus on the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] - PTA's supply - demand outlook is weak due to the expected decline in polyester load during the traditional off - season, and the cost - end is also under pressure. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3] - Overseas weather improvement weakens the cost support for rubber, and consumption data is poor. However, the short - term strategy is to go long at a low level. Follow - up negotiation progress should be monitored [4] - Iron ore has an expected increase in supply and weak terminal demand, with a risk of fundamental weakening. It is expected to oscillate, and interval operation is recommended [5] - For silicon iron, short - term factors support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price [6] - Steel prices may oscillate with limited up - and - down space due to the weak demand and the expected increase in production cuts [6][7] - The short - term futures price of live pigs stops falling and rebounds, maintaining a bottom - oscillating rebound pattern [7] - The fundamental guidance for palm oil is unclear, and the domestic price is under pressure. Short - term low - buying and high - selling is recommended [8] - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the substitution of soybean meal [8] - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9] - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9][10] - The L2601 contract of plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10] - The short - term bond is bearish due to the slightly tightened capital. Treasury futures have more bullish factors but may still oscillate in the medium term [11] - Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited. Attention should be paid to the economic data disturbances after the US government's normal operation and grasp the long - buying opportunities [11] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, 2025. The four - week average export volume reached 3.82 million barrels per day, the highest since May 2023 [1] Gold - European leaders support negotiating for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which weakens the risk - aversion sentiment [1] PTA - This week's domestic PTA output was 1.3983 million tons, with a decrease compared to last week and the same period last year. The average cost, profit, and processing fee all decreased [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are under pressure, and China's rubber tire export volume increased in the first three quarters of 2025. The inventory in Qingdao Port is slightly decreasing [4] Iron Ore - From October 13 - 19, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - The national capacity utilization rate and daily output of silicon iron decreased slightly. The cost has strong support, demand has toughness, but supply pressure is increasing [6] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained flat, while other indicators such as capacity utilization and profitability decreased slightly. Steel demand is weak, but production cuts may relieve the supply - demand contradiction [6][7] Live Pigs - On October 21, the average pork price decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. The price of live pigs has rebounded slightly recently [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. The domestic inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals [8] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 42nd week, the inventory of imported rapeseed meal in East and South China decreased. The substitution of soybean meal suppresses the consumption of rapeseed meal [8] Methanol - The signing volume of northwest methanol producers decreased, the price in Jiangsu decreased, and the capacity utilization rate and inventory showed different trends. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [9] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is stable and weak, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate [9][10] Plastic - The price of LLDPE in North China decreased, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Most Shibor short - term varieties increased, indicating a slightly tightened capital, which is bearish for short - term bonds [11] Silver - Trump's planned visit to China weakens the risk - aversion sentiment. Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited due to the expected October interest rate cut [11]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】国家统计局：9月份，规上工业原油产量 1777万吨，同比增长4.1%，增速比8月份加快1.7个百分点；日 均产量59.2万吨。1-9月份，规上工业原油产量16263万吨，同 比增长1.7%。欧洲理事会周一宣布，欧盟成员国能源部长当天 通过了在2028年1月1日前逐步停止进口俄罗斯石油和天然气的 提案；央视报道，当地时间10月20日，美国参议院第11次就政 府拨款法案进行投票表决，仍未获得通过，因此美国政府自10 月1日开始的"停摆"继续。评：美国政府"停摆"持续，施压 原油市场。整体上，供需和地缘均指向压制油价，后续需中美 贸易谈判进展。 【短评-焦炭】独立焦企本周吨焦平均利润-13元/吨，产能 利用率为74.24%减0.94%，焦炭日均产量65.29 万吨减0.83万 吨。评：供应端，成本不断抬升下焦化利润再次转负，抑制焦 企整体开工，此外部分企业受环保及检修等影响，开工下滑， 整体供应收紧明显。需求端，铁水产量延续小幅下滑，但仍在 240万吨以上，刚需支撑仍存。总体上，随着旺季步入尾声，焦 炭供需均有所转弱，但铁水相对坚挺，预计焦炭后市价格暂稳 运行。 投资咨询中 ...

Group 1: PVC - Current price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; capacity utilization rate is 82.63%, up 1.21% week - on - week; Jin Yuyuan's 400,000 - ton/year calcium carbide method device is expected to end maintenance this week; social inventory is 103.38 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; average gross profit of calcium carbide method PVC producers is - 622 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene method is - 538 yuan/ton; domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises' operation rate is 40.43%, up 1.3% month - on - month [1] - Supply is at a high level, production enterprises are in concentrated maintenance, new devices are put into operation, overall supply is abundant, domestic and foreign demand is rising steadily, social inventory has decreased slightly, and cost support is weak recently. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 4765 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1] Group 2: Gold - International gold price's upward trend continues, and spot gold has broken through $4300 per ounce for the first time, setting a new record high. Multiple institutions have issued risk warnings [2] - When multiple institutions issue risk warnings, it indicates that the market is overheated and risks are approaching. Uncertainties in the US government shutdown and Fed rate cuts have led to the continuous rise of gold, and the weakening of the US dollar index may provide some upward momentum for gold, but it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [2] Group 3: Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 10, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.53 million barrels, up 4.284 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory was 423.785 million barrels, up 3.524 million barrels; gasoline inventory was 218.826 million barrels, down 268,000 barrels; the average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, up 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 136,000 barrels from the same period last year; the average daily production in the four weeks ending October 10 was 13.568 million barrels, 1.6% higher than the same period last year [4] - The current crude oil market is under multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and reduced geopolitical risks. The fundamental driving force of crude oil is weak [4] Group 4: Rubber - Thai raw material glue price is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber price is 50 Thai baht/kg; Hainan glue for whole - milk production price is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,400 yuan/ton; Cambodia's latex exports from January to September 2025 decreased 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons [5] - Natural rubber is weakly declining, the spot is relatively strong, and the basis is converging. After the future rainfall in the producing areas eases, the incremental expectation is strong. Downstream tire enterprises are currently digesting inventory. Affected by the US tariff policy, the short - term driving force is weak. The low annual overall production of rubber and low inventory in China limit the decline of rubber. Recently, macro - factors have a greater impact than fundamentals, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Group 5: PTA - Taiwan, China's PX is reported at $783 per ton, PXN is $232 per ton, East China PTA is reported at 4350 yuan/ton, and PTA cash - flow cost is 4325 yuan/ton; PTA social inventory is 3.2595 million tons, down 25,500 tons from the previous statistical period; PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.46%; polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.78% [6] - PTA supply is expected to shrink; demand is expected to be dragged down by the tariff policy. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, which restricts the rebound space of PTA processing fees. Considering the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China remains at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is fluctuating weakly. Overall, the short - term downstream demand expectation and crude oil have a greater impact on PTA prices [6] Group 6: Live Pigs - On October 16, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.41, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.44. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.02 yuan/kg, down 1.0% from the previous day; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from the previous day [6] - At present, the supply - demand contradiction is still relatively prominent. The slaughter volume of large - scale farms remains high. Although the transaction in some areas has improved supported by second - fattening, the market supply has not decreased, and the slaughter demand has not increased significantly. The possibility of a sharp short - term rebound is small. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for stabilization [6] Group 7: Palm Oil - From October 1 to 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased 0.21% month - on - month, and production increased 6.86% month - on - month [7] - Malaysian palm oil production has increased significantly month - on - month, and there is still inventory pressure in October. The reduction of the reference price for November also reflects this. Palm oil prices are under pressure. However, the short - term supply - demand trend of palm oil has not changed, and there is strong support below. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Group 8: Soybeans - The monthly soybean crushing volume in September released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) far exceeded market expectations, reaching 197.863 million bushels, up 4.24% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year, setting the fourth - highest monthly record and the highest record for the same period in history. Analysts had expected a crushing volume of 186.34 million bushels before the report [8] - The stronger - than - expected soybean crushing volume in September has alleviated concerns about trade tensions. Bean No. 2 is expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - news. Bean No. 1 is mainly stable and may have upward potential [8] Group 9: Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6565 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day; polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 77.66%, up 0.39% from the previous day; the average operation rate of downstream industries is 51.85%, up 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; commercial inventory is 985,200 tons, down 26,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory of two major state - owned petrochemical companies' polyolefins is 800,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous day [8] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene has slightly eased, demand is flat, commercial inventory has decreased, the spot trading atmosphere has weakened, merchants continue to sell at low prices, and cost support is weak. It is expected that the PP 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6660 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8] Group 10: Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1246 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the float glass operation rate is 76.35%, up 0.34% week - on - week; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.2756 million weight boxes, up 2.31% month - on - month; the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 10.4 days, down 5.5% month - on - month; from January to August, the housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, down 17% year - on - year [9] - Currently, the profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, daily melting volume has rebounded slightly, downstream deep - processing enterprises' orders are still weak, float glass enterprises' inventory has increased, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and most raw - sheet enterprises have poor production and sales. It is expected that the glass 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1160 level. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for a pull - back and stabilization [9] Group 11: Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties show differentiation. The overnight variety remains flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety rises 0.5 BP to 1.419%; the 14 - day variety falls 0.9 BP to 1.443%, hitting a new low since January 2023; the 1 - month variety remains flat at 1.559% [9] - There is a differentiation between short - term and long - term in the capital market, indicating short - term capital tightness but loose capital expectations. Attention should be paid to the logic of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw. The risk - aversion sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has increased, which supports the bond market. However, it may still fluctuate in the medium term [9] Group 12: Silver - Fed officials have different views on the pace of rate cuts. Governor Waller advocates a cautious rate - cut step of 25 basis points each time to deal with the weak labor market, while Acting Fed Governor Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut. The core of the disagreement lies in the speed of policy adjustment [10] - The Fed's divergence has increased, but a rate cut in October is basically priced in. The weakening of the US economy is negative for silver, but the strength of gold has created conditions for a short - squeeze in silver. The upward momentum of silver is limited. It is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [10]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】据Mysteel，截至9月25日当周，螺纹钢产 量206.46万吨，较上周增加0.01万吨；厂库164.41万吨，较上 周减少0.66万吨，降幅0.4%；社库471.89万吨，较上周减少 13.32万吨，降幅2.75%；表需220.44万吨，较上周增加10.41万 吨，增幅4.96%。评：当前处于传统的"金九银十"阶段，但上 游煤钢之争加剧，焦企在国庆节前首轮提涨，目前钢厂落实缓 慢；铁水产量延续回升；下游房地产弱现实与政策预期并存， 短期期现价格更多容易受到宏观市场情绪影响。综合来看，螺 纹钢相对低估值的情况下，基本面短期大跌可能性偏低，建议 逢低做多为主。 【短评-原油】英国石油公司周四在其《2025年能源展望》 报告中表示，将其对全球石油需求峰值的预测从2025年推迟至 2030年。在"当前轨迹"情景下，全球石油需求量预计到2030 年将达到每日1.034亿桶，到2050年降至每日8300万桶。俄罗斯 副总理诺瓦克周四表示，俄罗斯将在年底前对柴油出口实施部 分禁令，并延长目前对汽油出口的禁令，8月份原油加工量降至 约510万桶/日，随后在9月份进一步降至约49 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical issues, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties across different commodities. Each commodity has its own unique situation, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term supply - demand challenges. Overall, most commodities are expected to have a range - bound performance in the short term [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - US commercial crude inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19, 2025. Year - to - date, US crude inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels. The stalemate in the agreement to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan and reports of Russia considering additional fuel export restrictions have boosted oil prices. However, there is still pressure from supply surplus. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Rubber - Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends. The 18th typhoon "Huksa" may land in the central and western coastal areas of Guangdong. The typhoon disrupts rubber tapping, and downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended with slow inventory reduction. China's natural rubber inventory is at a low level, and a larger and more sustained market requires demand - side support. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it should be treated with a range - bound view [2] Manganese Silicon - The开工率 of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 45.68%, a decrease of 1.70% from last week, and the daily output is 29,825 tons, a decrease of 765 tons. The overall production cost of manganese silicon has declined, and the industry profit has been slightly repaired. Steel mills' profits are okay, and the output of finished products in the peak season is expected to rise. However, the supply of manganese silicon is still high, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing. The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price, but the price may decline after the peak season [4] Lithium Carbonate - The market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Macro - policies affect futures fluctuations. Some mines in Jiangxi have not given responses on the supply side, while the energy - storage demand is on an upward trend. High inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to go long on LC2511 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 68,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton [5] Rebar - On September 23, domestic steel prices turned from rising to falling. To deal with the typhoon, "five - stop" measures were implemented in Guangdong, which hindered logistics and transportation. The supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market before the holiday improved little, with general and unstable trading and low market confidence. Steel prices have fallen from high levels [6] PTA - This week, domestic PTA production was 1.4309 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.29%. Supply is expected to increase. Polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing short - term support, but the expectation of new orders and load improvement is limited. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. Crude oil is fluctuating. PTA should be regarded as range - bound and weak [6] Live Pigs - On September 23, the average price of pork in the wholesale market increased by 0.1%. The previous continuous decline in pig prices has led to increased market resistance, and local second - fattening inquiries have increased, slowing down the decline. However, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, the breeding side's willingness to support prices is rising. Short - term long positions can be tried, but the upside space is limited [7] Palm Oil - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% compared to the same period last month, and exports decreased by 16.1%. The cancellation of Argentina's export tariff impacts international vegetable oil prices, while China and India's low - price replenishment boosts exports. It is recommended to go long at low prices and keep an eye on Argentina's soybean exports [8] Rapeseed Meal - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased to 45,500 tons from the previous week. The decline in US soybean futures prices has dragged down the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the market sentiment caused by Argentina's tariff cancellation fades, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate in the short term. Key factors to watch include China - Canada trade policies, upstream production, and downstream procurement [9] Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate has decreased from a high level, while downstream demand has increased. The expected import volume in September remains high, and port inventory continues to accumulate. The inland methanol market has declined, and port market trading is average. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will be range - bound and weak in the short term, with resistance at 2,375 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, indicating a looser money supply, which is beneficial to the bond market. In the third quarter, there are still disturbances from bond supply - demand and the stock market. A range - bound view should be taken for short - term Treasury bond futures [10] Silver - Powell's remarks about high US stock valuations led to a decline in US stocks overnight, which is negative for silver. Silver has a short - term callback demand but is still range - bound and bullish. The impact of gold on silver should be monitored [11] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased by 2.02% week - on - week, and inventory has decreased by 2.33%. The float - glass operating rate is stable, and demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high supply and limited demand fluctuations. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,250 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [12] Gold - There are significant differences within the Fed regarding future monetary policy. Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the safe - haven sentiment is driving up the price of gold. Gold is range - bound and bullish [13] Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has declined. Production has increased by 3.21% week - on - week, and enterprise inventory has decreased. Downstream operating rates are expected to rise, but pre - holiday restocking is not active. The cost side provides strong support. It is expected that the L2601 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,090 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [13]

Group 1: Gold - The market is digesting an expected 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year, and the Fed's independence is continuously affected. Before the interest rate cut is realized, the trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the market rhythm [1] Group 2: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,284 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. The weekly output is 761,100 tons, a 1.25% week - on - week increase. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7975 million tons, a 1.35% week - on - week decrease. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 1,325 level [1] Group 3: Crude Oil - Due to concerns about supply disruptions from attacks on Russian refineries and the possibility of US central bank interest rate cuts, international oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. Supply pressure remains, and short - term cautious trading is recommended [3] Group 4: Rubber - Overseas raw material prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and spot inventories continue to decline. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and should be treated with a range - bound view [4] Group 5: PTA - As of September 12, the PTA load increased to 76.8%, a 3.9% week - on - week increase. The weekly output was 1.388 million tons, a 99,000 - ton week - on - week increase. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Group 6: Coking Coal - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the supply of coking coal at home and abroad has recovered. The downstream demand has increased, and a bullish - biased trading idea is recommended [6] Group 7: Manganese Silicon - The cost support for manganese silicon is limited. The market supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and the price is expected to face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [7] Group 8: Rebar - On September 16, domestic steel market prices mostly rose. Driven by positive macro - expectations and rising costs, steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [7] Group 9: Short - term Treasury Bonds - In the third quarter, the bond - issuing rhythm may accelerate, and the expectation of tight liquidity increases, which is negative for the bond market. However, the positive factors for treasury bond futures are increasing [8] Group 10: Silver - US retail sales data is still growing positively month - on - month, which is bullish for silver. Before the interest rate cut is realized, silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [8] Group 11: Methanol - The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The 01 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2,375 level [9] Group 12: Polypropylene - The start - up of polypropylene has increased, and the overall supply is still abundant. The 01 contract of PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 6,965 level [10]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The continuous rise of gold recently is mainly due to central banks' continuous gold purchases. Before the interest - rate cut is realized, gold shows a bullish trend, but the rhythm needs attention [1] - For coking coal, both domestic and foreign supplies are recovering. The downstream开工率 will recover this week, and the spot market has average trading volume. Short - term interval operation is recommended [1] - The capital market expects a tight money supply in the third quarter, which is negative for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the logic of liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw [3] - The significant increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US leads to market expectations of three interest - rate cuts by the Fed this year. Before the interest - rate cut is realized, silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [3] - For iron ore, the demand has good resilience, and the supply contracts in the short term. The price is expected to remain high and strong, but the upside space is cautiously optimistic [4] - For rebar, the macro - economic outlook is positive. The steel demand shows a weak recovery in September. After a weak adjustment, the steel price may rebound if production can be controlled. In the short term, the price may fluctuate weakly [5] - The pig price is stable, with short - term oversupply. After a continuous decline, the price may stop falling and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the group - farm slaughter rhythm and demand recovery [6] - For palm oil, production decreased in early September, and the futures price rebounded. The price is expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term [6] - For soybeans, the supply - demand pattern of weak supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The domestic soybean price rebounds, but the upside space is limited [7] - For methanol, the domestic methanol market is mixed. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] - For LLDPE, the price trend is weak, with high supply and rising inventory. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] - For soda ash, the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [10] - For crude oil, OPEC+ supply increases significantly, and the demand does not improve significantly. The oil price is expected to be under pressure, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [10][11] - For rubber, it is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with an oscillating view, and attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [11] - For PTA, the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken, and the cost side is under pressure. A short - selling strategy on highs is recommended [12] Group 3: Summaries by Variety Gold - The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves (excluding the Fed) has exceeded US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, making gold the top reserve asset. Central banks' continuous gold purchases drive the price up. The market has fully priced in a September interest - rate cut, but a reversal may occur after the cut [1] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 82.7%, a 6.9% increase from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal has increased, and the inventory has decreased. Both domestic and foreign supplies are recovering, and the downstream开工率 will recover this week [1] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Most short - term Shibor varieties have risen. The capital market expects a tight money supply in the third quarter, which is negative for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the logic of liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw [3] Silver - US CPI data is in line with expectations, but the number of initial jobless claims has increased significantly. The market expects three interest - rate cuts by the Fed this year. The US dollar index has fallen, and precious metals have risen. However, risk preference has declined, putting pressure on silver. Before the interest - rate cut is realized, silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [3] Iron Ore - From September 1st to 7th, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 tons compared with the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 572.5 tons. The demand for iron ore has good resilience, and the supply contracts in the short term. The price is expected to remain high and strong, but the upside space is cautiously optimistic [4] Rebar - As of the week of September 11th, the output, factory inventory, and apparent demand of rebar have decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The macro - economic outlook is positive, and the steel demand shows a weak recovery in September. After a weak adjustment, the steel price may rebound if production can be controlled. In the short term, the price may fluctuate weakly [5] Pig - On September 11th, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.1% compared with the previous day. The pig price is stable, with short - term oversupply. After a continuous decline, the price may stop falling and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the group - farm slaughter rhythm and demand recovery [6] Palm Oil - From September 1st to 10th, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.24% compared with the same period last month, and the production decreased by 3.17%. The futures price of palm oil has rebounded, and the price is expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term [6] Soybeans - The sales pace of Argentine soybeans has slowed down. The domestic new - season soybeans are sporadically on the market, and the supply - demand pattern of weak supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The domestic soybean price rebounds, but the upside space is limited [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang has decreased. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] LLDPE - The price of LLDPE has a weak trend. The supply remains at a high level, the production enterprise inventory has increased, and the downstream开工率 is expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash has oscillated weakly. The weekly output has increased, and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased slightly. The float glass开工率 is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ increased oil production in August, and the IEA has adjusted the supply and demand forecasts. The supply has increased significantly, and the demand has not improved significantly. The oil price is expected to be under pressure, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [10][11] Rubber - The raw material prices in Thailand are stable. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. However, the sales growth rate of passenger cars decreased in August, and the demand is still weak. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [11] PTA - The social inventory of PTA has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.29%. The pre - maintenance devices are expected to restart, and the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken. The cost side is under pressure, and a short - selling strategy on highs is recommended [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The international oil price continues to decline due to concerns about increased production by OPEC and its allies, and the market is waiting for the outcome of the meeting of eight major oil - producing countries on October's production policy. Short - term trading or waiting is advisable [1]. - Gold may rise due to challenges to the Fed's independence and increased concerns about US inflation and economic downturn. It may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payroll data on Friday [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain high and volatile due to the game between weakening fundamentals and positive factors such as peak - season expectations and arbitrage funds [3]. - The domestic coking coal market is expected to adjust weakly in the short term as demand and supply factors are in a complex situation [3]. - Steel prices may have limited fluctuations in the short term, and the recovery of demand will determine the later trend [4]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly as the cost is supported by high - priced raw materials and the inventory is in the destocking cycle, although demand has not improved [5]. - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly as supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement [6]. - Short - term bonds are supported by sufficient liquidity but have not entered a bullish trend, and the upward momentum is insufficient [7]. - Silver is under pressure due to the weakening US employment data, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [9]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Domestic and imported soybean prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to US crop growth and international relations [11]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the data released by major producing countries [11]. - The short - term price of live pigs is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. It is advisable to try short - selling near - term contracts and long - buying far - term contracts, and farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day in the week of August 29. OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 27.84 million barrels per day, the largest increase in five months [1]. Natural Gas - No relevant content provided Metals Iron Ore - From August 25 to August 31, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons [3]. Gold - The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook, which challenges the Fed's independence, increases concerns about US inflation and economic downturn, and is the driving force for gold's rise [1]. Silver - US August ADP employment increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week increased by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [7]. Copper - No relevant content provided Chemicals PTA - PXCFR is currently reported at $846 per ton, PX - N is $246 per ton, and East China PTA is reported at 4,710 yuan per ton, with a cash - flow cost of 4,724 yuan per ton. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 16 - 26 days [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,245 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 86.63%, up 1.77%. The 1.5 million - ton/year methanol plant of Ningxia Baofeng is expected to end maintenance this week [8]. Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,306 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 276,500 tons, up 3.08% week - on - week [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,281.5 yuan per ton, showing a downward trend recently. The weekly output of soda ash is 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53% [10]. Agricultural Products Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in September is expected to be 6.75 million tons, compared with 5.16 million tons in the same period last year; the export volume of soybean meal is expected to be 6.37 million tons, compared with 6.56 million tons last year; the export volume of corn is expected to be 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons last year [11]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 2.07% compared with the same period last month, with a decline of 1.26% in the Malay Peninsula and an increase of 7.56% in East Malaysia [11]. Live Pig - On September 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.85 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous day [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 55.8 Thai baht per kilogram, and the price of cup rubber is 52.05 Thai baht per kilogram. Hainan Rubber reported that due to Typhoon "Jianyu", the company's rubber plantation had about 2,800 mu of报废 area, about 360,000 rubber and non - rubber biological assets were damaged, and the annual dry rubber production is expected to decrease by about 25,000 tons [5]. Others Short - term Treasury Bonds - On September 4, the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the same day was 203.5 billion yuan [7].

重点品种： 【短评-原油】国家能源局局长王宏志9月1日在京会见来访 的哈萨克斯坦能源部部长叶尔兰·阿肯热诺夫，双方就油气、 可再生能源、电力等领域合作深入交换意见。据消息人士和路 透计算，哈萨克斯坦8月份原油产量环比增长2%，达到188万桶/ 日；OPEC+主要成员国料将于周日开会讨论产量政策。评：因 OPEC+增产预期，供应存在过剩预期，然原油库存未累积。近期 地缘层面中东也门胡赛、俄乌问题，宏观层面美国关税上诉等 均给市场带来复杂影响，当前驱动主线不太强。短线或观望为 佳。 【短评-甲醇】 西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 7.54万吨，环比+24.83%；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2235元/吨，上 升5元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率84.84%，上升1.07%，宁夏宝 丰150万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率 72.99%，周上升0.25%；中国甲醇港口样本库存129.93万吨，周 上升22.33万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存33.34万吨，周增 加2.26万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求较稳，甲 醇港口库存继续积累，9月预期进口量维持高位。内地甲醇市场 持稳，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1285元/吨，近期震荡 下行；纯碱周度产量71.91万吨，环比-6.78%；纯碱厂家总库存 186.75万吨，周下降2.27%；浮法玻璃开工率75.48%，周度 +0.14%；全国浮法玻璃均价1154元/吨，环比上日+1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6256.6万重箱，环比下降1.64%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场操作气氛偏 淡，企业多数趋稳操作，浙江主流企业出厂价格走高，中下游 操作仍偏谨慎，刚需为主。国内纯碱市场走势偏弱，纯碱企业 库存高位，装置运行波动不大，个别企业负荷提升，下游需求 一般，按需为主。预计纯碱01合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力 1305一线，建议观望。 【短评-黄金】欧央行行长拉加德表示，2%的通胀目标已经 达成，将继续采取必要措施确保通胀得到控制，价格保持稳 定。欧元区8月制造业PMI终值从7月份的49.8升至50.7的三年多 高点，高于初值50.5，自2022年中期以来首次扩张。评：欧元 区经济强劲，对美元形成一定施压。市场担心美联储独立性受 到挑战，担心美国经济再度陷入通胀风险，黄金避险属性再度 ...