今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】据Mysteel，截至9月25日当周，螺纹钢产 量206.46万吨，较上周增加0.01万吨；厂库164.41万吨，较上 周减少0.66万吨，降幅0.4%；社库471.89万吨，较上周减少 13.32万吨，降幅2.75%；表需220.44万吨，较上周增加10.41万 吨，增幅4.96%。评：当前处于传统的"金九银十"阶段，但上 游煤钢之争加剧，焦企在国庆节前首轮提涨，目前钢厂落实缓 慢；铁水产量延续回升；下游房地产弱现实与政策预期并存， 短期期现价格更多容易受到宏观市场情绪影响。综合来看，螺 纹钢相对低估值的情况下，基本面短期大跌可能性偏低，建议 逢低做多为主。 【短评-原油】英国石油公司周四在其《2025年能源展望》 报告中表示，将其对全球石油需求峰值的预测从2025年推迟至 2030年。在"当前轨迹"情景下，全球石油需求量预计到2030 年将达到每日1.034亿桶，到2050年降至每日8300万桶。俄罗斯 副总理诺瓦克周四表示，俄罗斯将在年底前对柴油出口实施部 分禁令，并延长目前对汽油出口的禁令，8月份原油加工量降至 约510万桶/日，随后在9月份进一步降至约49 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical issues, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties across different commodities. Each commodity has its own unique situation, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term supply - demand challenges. Overall, most commodities are expected to have a range - bound performance in the short term [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - US commercial crude inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19, 2025. Year - to - date, US crude inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels. The stalemate in the agreement to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan and reports of Russia considering additional fuel export restrictions have boosted oil prices. However, there is still pressure from supply surplus. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Rubber - Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends. The 18th typhoon "Huksa" may land in the central and western coastal areas of Guangdong. The typhoon disrupts rubber tapping, and downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended with slow inventory reduction. China's natural rubber inventory is at a low level, and a larger and more sustained market requires demand - side support. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it should be treated with a range - bound view [2] Manganese Silicon - The开工率 of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 45.68%, a decrease of 1.70% from last week, and the daily output is 29,825 tons, a decrease of 765 tons. The overall production cost of manganese silicon has declined, and the industry profit has been slightly repaired. Steel mills' profits are okay, and the output of finished products in the peak season is expected to rise. However, the supply of manganese silicon is still high, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing. The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price, but the price may decline after the peak season [4] Lithium Carbonate - The market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Macro - policies affect futures fluctuations. Some mines in Jiangxi have not given responses on the supply side, while the energy - storage demand is on an upward trend. High inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to go long on LC2511 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 68,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton [5] Rebar - On September 23, domestic steel prices turned from rising to falling. To deal with the typhoon, "five - stop" measures were implemented in Guangdong, which hindered logistics and transportation. The supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market before the holiday improved little, with general and unstable trading and low market confidence. Steel prices have fallen from high levels [6] PTA - This week, domestic PTA production was 1.4309 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.29%. Supply is expected to increase. Polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing short - term support, but the expectation of new orders and load improvement is limited. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. Crude oil is fluctuating. PTA should be regarded as range - bound and weak [6] Live Pigs - On September 23, the average price of pork in the wholesale market increased by 0.1%. The previous continuous decline in pig prices has led to increased market resistance, and local second - fattening inquiries have increased, slowing down the decline. However, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, the breeding side's willingness to support prices is rising. Short - term long positions can be tried, but the upside space is limited [7] Palm Oil - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% compared to the same period last month, and exports decreased by 16.1%. The cancellation of Argentina's export tariff impacts international vegetable oil prices, while China and India's low - price replenishment boosts exports. It is recommended to go long at low prices and keep an eye on Argentina's soybean exports [8] Rapeseed Meal - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased to 45,500 tons from the previous week. The decline in US soybean futures prices has dragged down the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the market sentiment caused by Argentina's tariff cancellation fades, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate in the short term. Key factors to watch include China - Canada trade policies, upstream production, and downstream procurement [9] Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate has decreased from a high level, while downstream demand has increased. The expected import volume in September remains high, and port inventory continues to accumulate. The inland methanol market has declined, and port market trading is average. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will be range - bound and weak in the short term, with resistance at 2,375 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, indicating a looser money supply, which is beneficial to the bond market. In the third quarter, there are still disturbances from bond supply - demand and the stock market. A range - bound view should be taken for short - term Treasury bond futures [10] Silver - Powell's remarks about high US stock valuations led to a decline in US stocks overnight, which is negative for silver. Silver has a short - term callback demand but is still range - bound and bullish. The impact of gold on silver should be monitored [11] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased by 2.02% week - on - week, and inventory has decreased by 2.33%. The float - glass operating rate is stable, and demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high supply and limited demand fluctuations. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,250 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [12] Gold - There are significant differences within the Fed regarding future monetary policy. Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the safe - haven sentiment is driving up the price of gold. Gold is range - bound and bullish [13] Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has declined. Production has increased by 3.21% week - on - week, and enterprise inventory has decreased. Downstream operating rates are expected to rise, but pre - holiday restocking is not active. The cost side provides strong support. It is expected that the L2601 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,090 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [13]

Group 1: Gold - The market is digesting an expected 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year, and the Fed's independence is continuously affected. Before the interest rate cut is realized, the trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the market rhythm [1] Group 2: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,284 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. The weekly output is 761,100 tons, a 1.25% week - on - week increase. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7975 million tons, a 1.35% week - on - week decrease. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 1,325 level [1] Group 3: Crude Oil - Due to concerns about supply disruptions from attacks on Russian refineries and the possibility of US central bank interest rate cuts, international oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. Supply pressure remains, and short - term cautious trading is recommended [3] Group 4: Rubber - Overseas raw material prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and spot inventories continue to decline. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and should be treated with a range - bound view [4] Group 5: PTA - As of September 12, the PTA load increased to 76.8%, a 3.9% week - on - week increase. The weekly output was 1.388 million tons, a 99,000 - ton week - on - week increase. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Group 6: Coking Coal - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the supply of coking coal at home and abroad has recovered. The downstream demand has increased, and a bullish - biased trading idea is recommended [6] Group 7: Manganese Silicon - The cost support for manganese silicon is limited. The market supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and the price is expected to face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [7] Group 8: Rebar - On September 16, domestic steel market prices mostly rose. Driven by positive macro - expectations and rising costs, steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [7] Group 9: Short - term Treasury Bonds - In the third quarter, the bond - issuing rhythm may accelerate, and the expectation of tight liquidity increases, which is negative for the bond market. However, the positive factors for treasury bond futures are increasing [8] Group 10: Silver - US retail sales data is still growing positively month - on - month, which is bullish for silver. Before the interest rate cut is realized, silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [8] Group 11: Methanol - The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The 01 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2,375 level [9] Group 12: Polypropylene - The start - up of polypropylene has increased, and the overall supply is still abundant. The 01 contract of PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 6,965 level [10]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】全球央行储备格局将迎来里程碑式巨变。资 管机构宏观策略师塔维·科斯塔近日发布一组数据显示，除美 联储外，全球央行储备中黄金占比自1996年以来首次超越美国 国债。这宣告了黄金正式登顶全球央行储备资产。评：近期黄 金的持续上涨，央行持续购金是重要原因。市场对9月降息完全 定价，但是预期兑现后或出现反转行情。在降息兑现之前，仍 然为偏多走势，但需要注意节奏。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能 利用率为82.7%，环比增6.9%。原煤日均产量185.6万吨，环比 增15.6万吨，原煤库存473.2万吨，环比减1.6万吨 ，精煤日均 产量72.8万吨，环比增3.5万吨，精煤库存254.5万吨，环比减 13.6万吨。评：综合来看，焦煤内外供应皆有恢复。需求方 面，上周焦钢企业面临限产，本周下游开工率将有恢复。下游 按需采购为主，现货市场成交一般，等待下游旺季补库，盘面 低位小幅反弹，建议短线区间操作。 投资咨询中心 2025年09月12日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The international oil price continues to decline due to concerns about increased production by OPEC and its allies, and the market is waiting for the outcome of the meeting of eight major oil - producing countries on October's production policy. Short - term trading or waiting is advisable [1]. - Gold may rise due to challenges to the Fed's independence and increased concerns about US inflation and economic downturn. It may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payroll data on Friday [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain high and volatile due to the game between weakening fundamentals and positive factors such as peak - season expectations and arbitrage funds [3]. - The domestic coking coal market is expected to adjust weakly in the short term as demand and supply factors are in a complex situation [3]. - Steel prices may have limited fluctuations in the short term, and the recovery of demand will determine the later trend [4]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly as the cost is supported by high - priced raw materials and the inventory is in the destocking cycle, although demand has not improved [5]. - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly as supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement [6]. - Short - term bonds are supported by sufficient liquidity but have not entered a bullish trend, and the upward momentum is insufficient [7]. - Silver is under pressure due to the weakening US employment data, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [9]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Domestic and imported soybean prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to US crop growth and international relations [11]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the data released by major producing countries [11]. - The short - term price of live pigs is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. It is advisable to try short - selling near - term contracts and long - buying far - term contracts, and farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day in the week of August 29. OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 27.84 million barrels per day, the largest increase in five months [1]. Natural Gas - No relevant content provided Metals Iron Ore - From August 25 to August 31, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons [3]. Gold - The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook, which challenges the Fed's independence, increases concerns about US inflation and economic downturn, and is the driving force for gold's rise [1]. Silver - US August ADP employment increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week increased by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [7]. Copper - No relevant content provided Chemicals PTA - PXCFR is currently reported at $846 per ton, PX - N is $246 per ton, and East China PTA is reported at 4,710 yuan per ton, with a cash - flow cost of 4,724 yuan per ton. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 16 - 26 days [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,245 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 86.63%, up 1.77%. The 1.5 million - ton/year methanol plant of Ningxia Baofeng is expected to end maintenance this week [8]. Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,306 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 276,500 tons, up 3.08% week - on - week [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,281.5 yuan per ton, showing a downward trend recently. The weekly output of soda ash is 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53% [10]. Agricultural Products Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in September is expected to be 6.75 million tons, compared with 5.16 million tons in the same period last year; the export volume of soybean meal is expected to be 6.37 million tons, compared with 6.56 million tons last year; the export volume of corn is expected to be 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons last year [11]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 2.07% compared with the same period last month, with a decline of 1.26% in the Malay Peninsula and an increase of 7.56% in East Malaysia [11]. Live Pig - On September 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.85 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous day [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 55.8 Thai baht per kilogram, and the price of cup rubber is 52.05 Thai baht per kilogram. Hainan Rubber reported that due to Typhoon "Jianyu", the company's rubber plantation had about 2,800 mu of报废 area, about 360,000 rubber and non - rubber biological assets were damaged, and the annual dry rubber production is expected to decrease by about 25,000 tons [5]. Others Short - term Treasury Bonds - On September 4, the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the same day was 203.5 billion yuan [7].

重点品种： 【短评-原油】国家能源局局长王宏志9月1日在京会见来访 的哈萨克斯坦能源部部长叶尔兰·阿肯热诺夫，双方就油气、 可再生能源、电力等领域合作深入交换意见。据消息人士和路 透计算，哈萨克斯坦8月份原油产量环比增长2%，达到188万桶/ 日；OPEC+主要成员国料将于周日开会讨论产量政策。评：因 OPEC+增产预期，供应存在过剩预期，然原油库存未累积。近期 地缘层面中东也门胡赛、俄乌问题，宏观层面美国关税上诉等 均给市场带来复杂影响，当前驱动主线不太强。短线或观望为 佳。 【短评-甲醇】 西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 7.54万吨，环比+24.83%；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2235元/吨，上 升5元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率84.84%，上升1.07%，宁夏宝 丰150万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率 72.99%，周上升0.25%；中国甲醇港口样本库存129.93万吨，周 上升22.33万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存33.34万吨，周增 加2.26万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求较稳，甲 醇港口库存继续积累，9月预期进口量维持高位。内地甲醇市场 持稳，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1285元/吨，近期震荡 下行；纯碱周度产量71.91万吨，环比-6.78%；纯碱厂家总库存 186.75万吨，周下降2.27%；浮法玻璃开工率75.48%，周度 +0.14%；全国浮法玻璃均价1154元/吨，环比上日+1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6256.6万重箱，环比下降1.64%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场操作气氛偏 淡，企业多数趋稳操作，浙江主流企业出厂价格走高，中下游 操作仍偏谨慎，刚需为主。国内纯碱市场走势偏弱，纯碱企业 库存高位，装置运行波动不大，个别企业负荷提升，下游需求 一般，按需为主。预计纯碱01合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力 1305一线，建议观望。 【短评-黄金】欧央行行长拉加德表示，2%的通胀目标已经 达成，将继续采取必要措施确保通胀得到控制，价格保持稳 定。欧元区8月制造业PMI终值从7月份的49.8升至50.7的三年多 高点，高于初值50.5，自2022年中期以来首次扩张。评：欧元 区经济强劲，对美元形成一定施压。市场担心美联储独立性受 到挑战，担心美国经济再度陷入通胀风险，黄金避险属性再度 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and monetary policy in China, particularly regarding the central bank's actions and their implications for interest rates and economic support. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Interest Rates** - The central bank's reverse repo operations are stabilizing market expectations, with a potential for further rate cuts in the second half of the year to support economic growth [1][3][8] - A 10 basis point rate cut has already occurred in Q2, with expectations for additional cuts in Q3 [1][3][8] 2. **Market Expectations and Bond Purchases** - Large purchases of short-term bonds by major banks may indicate the central bank's intention to restart bond-buying operations, which could lead to lower interest rates [1][3][9] - The short-term government bond yield is expected to trend towards 1.1%, while the 10-year bond yield may break below 1.6% and approach 1.5% [1][6][9] 3. **Factors Influencing Interest Rate Movements** - A significant amount of maturing certificates of deposit and fluctuations in the funding environment may temporarily restrict interest rate declines [1][7] - Positive outcomes from US-China negotiations could slightly increase market risk appetite, potentially affecting rates by 2-3 basis points [1][4][5][7] 4. **Investment Strategies** - A bullish approach is recommended for the next two to three months, focusing on 3 to 5-year bullet bonds if the central bank resumes bond purchases [1][9][11] - In the absence of such expectations, a strategy favoring ticket interest or yield spread compression is advised [1][9][11] 5. **Long-term Credit Bonds** - Long-term credit bonds are viewed as having high certainty in the current market environment, with recommendations to focus on 8-year medium-term notes and 6 to 10-year subordinated capital bonds [1][15] 6. **Local vs. National Bonds** - The spread between local and national bonds is expected to remain stable, with local bond issuance anticipated to increase in Q3 [1][16][17] 7. **Liquidity and Trading Strategies** - Active bonds are reasonably priced and maintain good liquidity, making them suitable for trading [1][21] - Investors are advised to monitor changes in liquidity premiums and bond pricing dynamics [1][21] 8. **Floating vs. Fixed Rate Bonds** - Floating rate bonds are currently reasonably priced, but may not outperform fixed-rate bonds if short-term rates decline [1][24] 9. **Government Bond Futures** - Current pricing of government bond futures is considered high, but they still hold hedging value. Strategies may include shorting corresponding futures to capture yield [1][25] Other Important Considerations - The overall economic outlook remains dependent on continued monetary support, with expectations for the central bank to take action to stabilize market conditions amid significant government bond supply pressures [1][8] - The anticipated bond market dynamics suggest a cautious yet opportunistic approach to investment, with a focus on liquidity and yield optimization [1][9][15]