2025年10月20日，华盛顿的白宫内，签署桌上的钢笔停留了片刻。85亿美元的协议，传遍了全球。 美国与澳大利亚在关键矿产领域达成了协议，承诺共同投资并推进多个项目，但背后却有着数字差异和 分歧。在全球矿产供应链紧张的背景下，协议的签署并不代表一切顺利。 一份协议，三组数字 白宫的会议室内，文件被翻开。特朗普与阿尔巴尼斯签字后的瞬间，记者们迅速聚焦于屏幕上的数字 ——85亿美元的项目计划，六个月内10亿美元的短期资金，还有美国进出口银行承诺的22亿美元意向 书。这些数字，迅速成为媒体头条。 阿尔巴尼斯在签署后对外表示："在未来六个月，澳大利亚和美国将为立即可开展的项目出资10亿美 元。"话音刚落，白宫紧接着发布的文件却显示，两国将投资超过30亿美元。 在这场信息战中，数字成了争论的焦点。"30亿"与"10亿"，到底代表着什么？数字之间的差异没有得到 及时解释，媒体的追问让这一点成为了整个协议的裂痕。 紧接着，美国进出口银行宣布将签发七份意向书，其中包括22亿美元的融资承诺，这一消息又把"85 亿"与"30亿"拉开了距离。每个数字都代表着不同的资金承诺。白宫的文件和阿尔巴尼斯的发言之间， 不同的表述成了外界的猜 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 仅供机构投资者使用 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 美国政府停摆继续，信贷危机担忧升温，降息预 期下金银价格持续新高 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：美国政府停摆继续，信贷危机担忧升温， 降息预期下金银价格持续新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 5.76%至 4,267.90 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 6.55%至 50.63 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上涨 10.53%至 999.80 元/克，SHFE 白银上涨 10.53%至 12,249.00 元 /千克。 本周金银比下跌 0.74%至 84.30。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 966,285.71 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 增加 1,452,401.60 盎司。 周二，美国 9 月 NFIB 小型企业信心指数 98.8，预期 100.6，前值 100.8。 周三，美国 10 月纽约联储制造业指数 10.7，预期-1.4， 前值-8.7。 周四，美国 10 月费 ...

Core Insights - South Korea exhibits significant import dependency in key materials for high-tech strategic industries, particularly with China [1][2] - Diversifying supply chains has become an urgent issue for South Korea due to this dependency [1] Group 1: Dependency on China in Key Materials - In the secondary battery sector, South Korea's reliance on China for key materials is stark, with natural and artificial graphite dependency rates at 97.6% and 98.8% respectively [1] - The dependency for precursor materials and nickel hydroxide in cathodes is also high, reaching 94.1% and 96.4% [1] - The import dependency for core components in the robotics industry has increased from 77.7% in 2021 to 80.3% in 2023 [1] Group 2: Rare Metals and Semiconductor Materials - Out of 31 rare metals managed by the South Korean government, 20 are reliant on imports from China as of 2024 [2] - Dependency rates for core semiconductor materials are significant, with niobium and silicon at 78% and 63% respectively, and lithium for cathodes at 65% [2] - Other critical materials such as gallium (98%), graphite (97%), indium (93%), and magnesium (84%) also show high import ratios from China [2]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 宏观情绪波动，贵金属表现相对强劲 一周一议：商务部 10月 9日发布四则稀土管控政策，旨在加强稀土全产业链管控。1.商务部 2025 第61 号： 拓宽管制范围，从4.4 日的中重稀土管控拓宽至境外相关稀土物项管控；2.商务部2025 第 62 号：明确对稀 土相关技术实施出口管制；3.商务部 海关总署2025 年第 56 号：对部分稀土设备和原辅料相关物项实施出 口管制；4.商务部 海关总署 2025 年第57 号：对部分中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制。管控将强化稀土产 业核心竞争力，长期而言对产业有深远影响，尤其是涉及中重稀土和深加工磁材环节，从工艺设备流程到 最终产品都纳入管制，更符合管制的本意全面把高附加环节留在国内。 基本金属：降息预期升温叠加供给冲击，铜价向上突破。1）铜：本周铜价上行，沪铜收于 85910元/吨。 基本面上，国内产出依然处于年内相对偏低的水平，海外矿山对于铜价的影响有所减弱；然而近期随着海 内外价差再度走扩，国内出口预期有所增加，且海外的远期货源也开始出现明显的溢价，国内再度呈现进 口预期下降而出口预期提升的状态；需求上表现平淡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of the China-Europe Railway has raised questions about Europe's reliance on Chinese rare earth materials, particularly given the high dependency rates of European countries on these resources [1][3]. Group 1: Dependency on Chinese Rare Earths - The EU's dependency on Chinese rare earths is over 98% on average, with some critical sectors nearing 100% reliance, particularly in high-end permanent magnet materials [3]. - China supplies 93% of the EU's magnesium, 97% of its lithium, and nearly all of its rare earth minerals, indicating a significant risk to European high-tech industries if exports are restricted [3]. Group 2: European Response and Alternatives - Despite the high dependency, European countries have shown little panic in response to the suspension, suggesting they may have alternative sources for rare earth materials [1][3]. - The lack of immediate economic distress in Europe implies that they might be capable of sourcing rare earths through other channels, mitigating the impact of potential supply disruptions from China [3]. Group 3: Domestic Issues and Smuggling - The recent exposure of a family operation involved in smuggling rare metals is seen as just the tip of the iceberg, indicating larger systemic issues within the country regarding the illegal trade of valuable resources [5]. - The presence of individuals willing to compromise ethics for financial gain highlights the need for stronger internal controls to prevent such illicit activities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic metals in the current era of significant global change, defining strategic metals based on supply chain stability rather than scarcity [1] Group 1: Strategic Metals Overview - Cobalt is identified as a strategic metal due to its scarcity and unstable supply chain, with over 75% of global supply coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The U.S. plans to purchase 7,500 tons of cobalt over the next five years, indicating a bullish outlook for cobalt prices [1] - Tungsten is noted for its scarcity and domestic control, with prices accelerating due to its classification as a "war metal" [2] - Magnesium, while not scarce, is under domestic control and is seen as a potential substitute for aluminum, indicating significant market potential [3] - Potassium is recognized for its scarcity and high concentration, serving as a critical resource for food security, with price controls implemented by the government [4] - Rare earth elements are characterized by their non-scarcity but domestic supply chain control, with significant imports from the U.S. and other countries. The article predicts a decline in imports due to geopolitical tensions [4] Group 2: Additional Strategic Metals - Nickel is described as not particularly scarce but with a high concentration in supply, heavily reliant on Indonesia [5] - Antimony is classified as scarce with a concentrated supply chain, and its price is supported by export controls and domestic demand [5] - Tantalum and niobium are both noted for their scarcity and concentrated supply chains, with significant reliance on African and Brazilian sources, respectively [5] - The article mentions the performance of the non-ferrous metal industry index, highlighting the top ten weighted stocks, which include major companies like Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Mexico with a registered capital of 5 million USD and a total investment of 50 million USD to expand its overseas market and enhance its international presence [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The investment will be funded through the company's own or raised funds [1] - The new subsidiary is tentatively named "Mexico Yian Limited Liability Company" and will focus on the production and sales of magnesium, aluminum, zinc, and zirconium alloys [1] - The investment aims to better meet the needs of North American market customers and improve the company's risk resistance capabilities [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Approval Process - The investment does not require approval from the shareholders' meeting and does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring [1] - The investment is subject to domestic overseas investment filing or approval procedures, as well as local investment permits and business registration in Mexico [1] Group 3: Financial Impact - The investment is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's financial status and operating results in the short term [1]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on non-ferrous metals due to the dovish stance of Powell and the dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to support the sector [1] - The copper market is currently in a state of relative weakness, with prices expected to rebound in September due to seasonal demand increases, despite short-term price weakness [2][14] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to increased supply and demand concerns, with a forecasted range for aluminum prices between 20,300 and 21,000 yuan/ton [19][20] - Precious metals are experiencing downward pressure, but the dovish signals from the Jackson Hole meeting may lead to a rebound in gold prices [23][24] - Tungsten prices are on the rise, supported by tight supply, although demand from downstream sectors remains weak [54][55] - The rare earth sector is seeing improvements in supply management, with expectations for significant price elasticity and potential for volume and price increases in the third quarter [5] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have slightly decreased, with the current price at 79,110 yuan/ton, and the market is expected to remain relatively weak in the short term [2][14] - Aluminum prices have dropped to 20,775 yuan/ton, influenced by increased supply and concerns over demand, particularly in the real estate sector [19][20] - Gold prices have decreased to 767.33 yuan/gram, with expectations for a rebound due to renewed interest in rate cuts [23][24] - Lead and zinc prices are also under pressure, with lead prices at 16,783 yuan/ton and zinc prices at 22,248 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand [27][35] Minor Metals - Lithium prices are rising, driven by strong cost support, with current prices around 73,000-76,000 yuan/ton [39] - Cobalt prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with current prices for electrolytic cobalt at 257,000-275,000 yuan/ton [43][44] - Tin prices are supported by low inventory levels, with current prices at 33,775 USD/ton [49][50] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 224,000 yuan/ton, reflecting tight supply conditions [54][55] Rare Earths - The release of new regulations is expected to optimize supply in the rare earth sector, with light rare earth prices rising to 622,500 yuan/ton [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The dovish remarks from Powell have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, benefiting the prices of precious and base metals [3][41] - The market is beginning to price in the likelihood of a rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a September cut to 91.1% following Powell's comments [3][41] - Long-term concerns regarding global monetary policy and debt are expected to support gold prices, with the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act projected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [3][15] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 1.05% to $3,417.20 per ounce, while silver rose by 2.26% to $38.88 per ounce [1][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 276,237.73 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 6,992,897.80 ounces [24] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 1.19% to 87.89, indicating a potential recovery in silver prices due to increased industrial demand [1][43] Base Metals - Copper prices rose by 0.37% to $9,796.50 per ton on the LME, while aluminum increased by 0.73% to $2,622.00 per ton [6][48] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines continue to tighten raw material availability, with Peru's copper production increasing by 7.1% year-on-year [7][68] - The market anticipates a cautious improvement in consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [7][70] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at 18,920 yuan per ton, with tight inventory levels among producers [81] - Molybdenum prices have shown positive trends, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 3.60% to 287,500 yuan per ton [14][82] - The demand for molybdenum is expected to remain strong, supported by tight supply conditions [14][82]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The basic metals market is primarily driven by macro pricing, with copper and aluminum experiencing high-level fluctuations. Copper prices initially rose due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts but later fell due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data and uncertainties in the foreign trade environment [1][12] - Aluminum prices increased, supported by positive manufacturing PMI data and optimistic automotive sales, despite a reduction in production of aluminum rods and plates [1][20] - Precious metals saw mixed performance, with gold prices declining slightly while silver prices increased, influenced by geopolitical factors and changing market risk preferences [2][25] Summary by Sections Basic Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices fluctuated at high levels, with a current price of 79,830 CNY/ton. Domestic copper inventory increased slightly, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic [1][12] - Aluminum: Prices rose to 20,555 CNY/ton, driven by improved manufacturing data and rising energy prices. The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum decreased due to reduced production of aluminum rods and plates [1][20] - Precious Metals: Gold averaged 766.71 CNY/gram, down 1.00% from the previous week, while silver averaged 8,738 CNY/kg, up 0.29% [2][25] Small Metals - Tungsten: Prices showed resilience with black tungsten concentrate averaging 173,000 CNY/ton, reflecting limited supply growth [3][55] - Rare Earths: Prices for light rare earths increased, indicating a recovery in the fundamentals of the sector, with expectations for significant improvements in the third quarter [3][3] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will range between 79,500 and 81,000 CNY/ton in the coming week, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between 20,300 and 21,000 CNY/ton [13][21] - For precious metals, gold is projected to trade between 750 and 800 CNY/gram, and silver between 8,200 and 9,200 CNY/kg [26][26]