| 国贸商品指数 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | CENERS | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ITE G | 贸商品指数日报 | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 郑建著 | 从业资格号: | F3014717 | | | 2025/10/16 | | | 宏观金融中心 | 投资咨询号: | Z0013223 | | | | | | 周三(10月15日)、 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半。航运期货涨幅居前,集运指数(欧线)涨4.25%; | | | | | | | | 金属全部上涨,沪银涨2.30%;油脂油料多数上涨,豆一涨0.76%;农副产品全部上涨,玉米涨 | | | | | | | | 0.67%;能源品跌幅居前,低硫燃料油跌1.90%;非金属建材全部下跌,玻璃跌1.74%;黑色系多数下 跌、铁矿石跌1.46%:基本金属涨跌参半,沪锌跌1.17%:化工品多数下跌、沥青跌1.10%;新能源材 | | | | | | | | 料多数下跌,碳酸锂跌0.60%。 | | | | | | | | 热评:周三 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products and agricultural products mostly weakening [1]. 3. Summary by Category Black Series - Most black series commodities fell. The market sentiment was weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from a high. The actual situation of the black series remained weak, and the rebar futures reached a more than three - month low. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 8.68% week - on - week to 1.60072 billion tons, with the increase far higher than 3.65% of the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 19.5%. In the future, the property transactions during the National Day holiday were halved year - on - year, the national replenishment in many places was suspended, the sales of automobiles and home appliances declined, and the accumulated inventory needed time to digest. Exports also faced new challenges, so the fundamental contradictions were prominent, and the upward pressure on prices continued [1]. Basic Metals - Most basic metals declined. In the copper market, there was concern about the Sino - US tariff game. The market had different views on copper, mainly focusing on capital pull and demand pressure in traditional fields. The domestic copper market might continue the feature of "both supply and demand being weak". For aluminum, non - ferrous metals rose and then fell. The spot in East China was at par, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods had a neutral accumulation. There were signs of inventory reduction in major regions on Tuesday. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically the same year - on - year, and the demand was resilient but lacked a high point. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate, and the upside space should be carefully viewed [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products weakened. As the macro - sentiment eased and investors' risk appetite gradually recovered, international crude oil prices rebounded. However, the willingness of domestic funds to chase the rise was relatively cautious, and the main contract of SC crude oil continued to decline. In the future, the market entered the TACO trading mode, and oil prices might fluctuate and repair in the short term. But the unpredictable style of Trump made the macro - level highly uncertain, and the trading rhythm was difficult to grasp. In the medium and long term, as geopolitical risks eased, the price center might move down [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils declined. The weakening of external - market oils and the decline of crude oil led to a weak overall sentiment in the oil market. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.41 million tons, up 340,000 tons year - on - year, at a high level in recent years. The fundamentals of oils lacked positive support for the time being, and they were expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices. In the long term, palm oil was about to enter the seasonal production - reduction period, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia would have an impact, so oils still had room to rise. The decline of double - meal (rapeseed meal and soybean meal) widened, and rapeseed meal reached a three - month low. The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal in China was at a high level, and the weak fundamentals restricted the upward space of prices. In the short term, double - meal might continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the arrival of imported soybeans and rapeseeds [1]. Others - Shipping futures had a large increase, with the Container Freight Index (European Line) rising 7.36%. All precious metals rose, with Shanghai gold rising 2.70%. Most new - energy materials rose, with polysilicon rising 2.55% [1].

单品种看，上周五资金主要流入的商品期货（主连合约）品种有集运指数(欧线)、低硫燃料油、瓶片、棉纱和菜粕，分别流入 1.93 亿元、1.01 亿元、0.45 亿元、0.29 亿元和0.29 亿元；主要流出的品种有黄金、白银、螺纹钢、热轧卷板和铜，分别流出 86.08 亿元、28.12 亿元、17.01 亿元、12.80 亿元和10.85 亿元。从主力合约看，有色金属、化工、农产品、黑色和金融板块均呈 流出状态。 整体看，上周五商品期货（主连合约）资金呈大幅流出状态。有色金属和化工板块流出较多，重点关注流出较多的黄金、白 银、铜和纯碱，同时关注多晶硅和沥青。黑色和农产品板块呈中幅流出状态，重点关注流出较多的螺纹钢、豆粕和焦煤，同时 关注逆势流入的菜粕和焦炭。金融板块重点关注中证500股指期货和2年期国债期货。（徽商期货 方正） 图为商品期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 图为板块资金流入额（亿元） 图为金融期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 图为商品期货资金流出前十名（亿元） 图为商品期货资金流入前十名（亿元） ...

一货船出现故障，土耳其博斯普鲁斯海峡双向停航。 据央视新闻，土耳其交通和基础设施部9月30日发表声明称，一艘自土耳其班德尔马驶往俄罗斯的98米长货船"ARDA"号在博斯普鲁斯海峡乌穆雷耶里水域发 生发动机故障，导致海峡双向通航暂停。 事发后，当局派出两艘救援船和引航员前往处置。在伊斯坦布尔船舶交通服务中心协调下，船只已被安全拖至大德雷水域锚泊。 博斯普鲁斯海峡连接黑海与马尔马拉海，是世界最繁忙的海上通道之一。 市场方面，集运指数（欧线）合约波动不大，目前均小幅下跌。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 集运指数(欧线)2510 | 1116.૬ | -5.1 -0.45% | | EC2512 | 集运指数(欧线)2512 | 1727.9 | -7.1 -0.41% | | EC2602 | 集运指数(欧线)2602 | 1635.2 | -9.5 -0.58% | | EC2604 | 集运指数(欧线)2604 | 1246.૬ | -6.2 -0.49% | | EC2606 | 集运指数(欧线)2606 | 14 ...

图为商品期货资金流入前十名（亿元） 单品种看，昨日资金主要流入的商品期货（主连合约）品种有燃料油、螺纹钢、短纤、集运指数(欧线)和橡 胶，分别流入4.25 亿元、0.84 亿元、0.72 亿元、0.63 亿元和0.50 亿元；主要流出的品种有烧碱、焦煤、白银、 鸡蛋和锌，分别流出1.25 亿元、1.21 亿元、1.04 亿元、0.92 亿元和0.91 亿元。从主力合约看，金融期货和化工 板块呈流入状态，黑色、有色金属和农产品板块呈流出状态。 整体看，昨日商品期货（主连合约）资金呈微幅流出状态。黑色、有色金属和农产品板块呈流出状态，重点关 注流出较多的焦煤、白银、鸡蛋、锌和铝，同时关注逆势流入的螺纹钢和多晶硅。化工板块呈流入状态，重点 关注流入较多的燃油、短纤和乙二醇，同时关注逆势流出的原油。金融板块重点关注中证500股指期货和30年 期国债期货。（徽商期货 方正） 图为商品期货资金流出前十名（亿元） 图为金融期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 图为商品期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 图为板块资金流入额（亿元） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products mostly falling and agricultural products showing mixed performance [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - Black series generally declined. Recently, there were continuous disturbances on the coking coal supply side, but market sentiment cooled at high levels, and steel mills delayed the implementation of coke price increases. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23470 tons to 1.37536 million tons, reaching a more than two - month high. High - temperature weather continued, terminal demand remained weak, and speculative demand weakened. However, there were still production - cut expectations, and the overall pressure on available spot resources was not large, so the futures price fluctuations were limited [1] Basic Metals - Basic metals showed mixed performance. For copper, the lower - than - expected CPI increase in the US in July supported a September interest rate cut, the US dollar weakened, and US stocks reached new highs, supporting the strong performance of Shanghai copper. For lithium carbonate, the futures price fluctuated within a range. Downstream enterprises started peak - season stocking, demand improved, but the supply side of lithium - spodumene extraction also increased significantly, making up for the reduction in lithium - mica and salt - lake production. The supply - side disturbances were not fully realized, and the market was more sensitive to supply disturbances, so lithium carbonate continued to oscillate at a high level [1] Energy Products - Energy products weakened again. API crude oil inventory increased more than expected, and SC crude oil returned to a downward trend. In the short term, OPEC+ will maintain production increases in September, and there are concerns about the impact of tariff policies on demand, so oil prices will oscillate weakly. Geopolitical risks may cause a temporary supply shortage and support short - term oil price increases. In the long term, due to OPEC+'s production - increase strategy, weakening peak - season demand, inventory accumulation due to poor refinery profits, and the increasing substitution rate of the new - energy industry, oil prices will still face pressure [1] Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils rose. Stimulated by China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canada and the unexpectedly positive USDA August supply - demand report, oilseeds and oils rose significantly. The USDA August report lowered the global soybean production and ending inventory, with US soybean production reduced to 4.292 billion bushels and ending inventory to 290 million bushels, which boosted the soybean meal price. In the short term, under the influence of multiple positive factors, oilseeds and oils may continue to be strong [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月5日，国内商品期市午盘涨跌参半，新能源材料涨幅居前，多晶硅上涨1.89%；油脂油 料多数上涨，棕榈油上涨1.72%；黑色系多数上涨，焦煤上涨1.40%；化工品涨跌互现，20号胶上涨 1.11%；贵金属全部上涨，沪银上涨0.92%；基本金属多数上涨，沪镍上涨0.66%；农副产品多数下跌， 红枣下跌1.14%；能源品全部下跌，LPG下跌2.35%；非金属建材全部下跌，玻璃下跌2.68%。集运指数 (欧线)上涨0.25%。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority decline, with the black series leading the drop, particularly coking coal down 6.23% and coke down 1.16% [1] - Most chemical products also declined, with rubber down 2.82% and butadiene rubber down 1.60% [1] - Basic metals experienced a general decline, with alumina down 3.01% and nickel down 0.77% [1] Group 2 - Energy products mostly fell, with LPG down 1.55% and fuel oil down 0.91% [1] - Agricultural products showed a downward trend, with live pigs down 1.35% and apples down 0.66% [1] - Oilseeds and oils had mixed results, with soybean oil up 0.24% and soybean meal down 0.27% [1] Group 3 - Precious metals showed mixed performance, with silver down 1.63% and gold up 0.08% [1] - New energy materials had varied results, with lithium carbonate up 1.36% and polysilicon down 3.58% [1] - Non-metallic building materials saw a complete decline, with glass down 5.24% and PVC down 1.41% [1] Group 4 - Shipping futures performed weakly, with the container shipping index (European line) down 1.08% [1]

集运指数(欧线)跌超3%，上期所原油期货主力合约跌超2%。 ...

主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% 看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 EFF 2025 06-04 17:00 $ 期市动态雷达 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中51个合约上涨,22个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的多头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在上涨品种上。 涨幅居前的品种: 焦煤2509(+7.19%)、集运指数(欧线) 2508(+6.86%)、焦炭2509(+5.72%)。这些品种受供需影响显著。 数据透视线索 跌幅居前的品种： 胶板2511(-3.26%)、菜油2509(-2.56%)、烧碱 2509(-1.95%)，可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向(亿元) 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 资金流入最多的品种： 沪铜2507(11.13亿元)、沪银2508(3.48亿元)、 焦煤2509(2.95亿元)，这些品种吸引了大量主力资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种: 沪金2508(-29.81亿元)、沪深300 2506(-19.09 亿元)、中证1000 2506(-17.96亿元)，这些品种出现了明显的 ...