2026年3月6日 关注地缘情绪 (欧线) 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021502 郑玉洁 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1.768.0 | -3.42% | 153, 840 | 36, 679 | -1.939 | 4.19 | 3. 35 | | | EC2606 | 1,950.1 | -15. 57% | 30. 528 | 20, 170 | -1.467 | 1.51 | 2. 12 | | | EC2608 | 2. 010. 0 | -14. 76% | 4, 342 | 2. 964 | -113 | 1.46 | 2.71 | | | EC2610 | 1. 394. 9 | ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 03 月 03 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 "三桶油"再齐涨停 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2026 年 3 月 3 日周二，A 股市场大幅调整，超 4800 只个股下跌，"三桶 油"再度集体涨停；国债期货市场分化震荡；商品指数上涨，原油连续涨停。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：市场避险情绪大幅提升 市场避险情绪大幅提升。今日 A 股市场大幅调整，上证指数开盘短暂冲高至 4195.33 点（创 2015 年 7 月以来新高）后震荡回落，最终收于 4122.68 点，跌幅 1.43%；深证成指低开低走，收于 14022.39 点，跌 3.07%；创业板指收于 3209.48 点，跌 2.57%；万得全 A 指数下跌 2.97%，收于 6709.23 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most new energy materials rising. Shipping futures led the gains, while chemical products led the losses [1]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total and a differentiated structure. The manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened, and employment data was below expectations [1]. - In China, the boost from the incremental policies in Q4 2025 to the fundamentals has not been significant, but policy expectations are gradually increasing. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, but the expectation of policy support in Q1 is strengthening [1]. - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities. Gold in precious metals maintains a long - position standard, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and short - term dips can be used for bottom - fishing. Black commodities are volatile, and crude oil may rise but with high uncertainty [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.40%. New energy materials mostly rose, with lithium carbonate up 3.66%. Basic metals mostly rose, with Shanghai nickel up 1.79%. Agricultural and sideline products all rose, with apples up 1.73%. Energy products all rose, with fuel oil up 1.09%. Chemical products led the losses, with butadiene rubber down 1.93%. Oils and fats mostly fell, with palm oil down 1.50%. Precious metals were mixed, with palladium down 1.48%. Black series all fell, with ferrosilicon down 1.47%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with PVC down 0.78% [1]. - **Financial Market**: On February 12, 2026, among stock index futures, CSI 500 futures rose 1.31%, and CSI 1000 futures rose 1.09%. Among Treasury bond futures, 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.06%, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 108 pips [9]. - **Industry Index**: On February 12, 2026, among the中信 industry indices, non - ferrous metals rose 0.98%, and machinery rose 1.29%, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fell 1.48%, and consumer services fell 1.75% [10][11]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On February 11, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 1.45%, ICE Brent oil rose 1.21%, COMEX gold rose 1.53%, and LME nickel rose 3.29% [12][13]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On February 12, 2026, the container shipping European line rose 5.27%, lithium carbonate rose 12.33% weekly, and iron ore fell 0.11% daily [14][15][16]. 3.2 Sector Analysis - **Finance**: Before the holiday, it may be volatile. Stock index futures may be volatile and slightly stronger, stock index options should continue to hold call options for defense, Treasury bond futures are supported by monetary easing expectations, and gold and silver are in a stage of adjustment with reduced capital enthusiasm [5]. - **Shipping**: The OOCL's March online price is $3130/FEU, and the market is in a state of shrinking trading volume and consolidation before the holiday [5]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, contradictions are accumulating, and the market is under pressure. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all in a volatile state [5]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The expected trading of "Woshi Eagle" is weakening, and basic metals stop falling and are volatile. Nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [5]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Concerns about the Middle East situation continue to disrupt oil prices, and the chemical industry continues to be in a state of volatile consolidation [6]. - **Agriculture**: Optimistic sentiment supports US soybeans, and domestic double - meal is mainly volatile. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, and the pig price is running at a low level [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures markets closed with most rising, led by new energy materials. Lithium carbonate rose 9.18%, while shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 1.42% [1] - The U.S. economy shows weak stability in overall volume and structural differentiation. The manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened and employment data was below expectations [1] - In January 2026, China's PPI was - 1.4% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, while CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [1] - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral overall, with better short - end opportunities. Gold in precious metals maintains a long - position standard, and silver is on the sidelines. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil may rise due to geopolitical support, but it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: New energy materials led the gains, with lithium carbonate up 9.18%. Shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 1.42%. Basic metals, energy products, agricultural and sideline products, precious metals, chemicals, and oilseeds mostly rose, while black commodities mostly fell, and non - metallic building materials were mixed [1] - **Financial Markets**: Stock index futures showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. Treasury bond futures had slight fluctuations. The U.S. dollar index and related exchange - rate indicators had certain changes. Interest - rate indicators such as bond yields also fluctuated [8] - **Industry Indexes**: Non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, and building materials had relatively large increases, while defense, electronics, and media had declines [9][10] - **Overseas Commodities**: Energy products such as oil and natural gas had different price changes. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also showed various trends [11][12] - **Domestic Main Commodities**: Different commodities in shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products had different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes [13][14][15] Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate moderately upward, stock index options focus on call - option defense, and treasury bond futures fluctuate narrowly [4] - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver prices are in a stage of adjustment, with short - term fluctuations due to weakening previous positive drivers and reduced capital enthusiasm before the Spring Festival [4] - **Shipping Sector**: The pre - holiday market is shrinking, and the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to fluctuate [4] - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Pre - holiday demand has declined, and products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to fluctuate. Glass and soda ash prices also fluctuate [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: With the weakening of hawkish expectations, non - ferrous metals stop falling and fluctuate. Products such as copper, nickel, and stainless steel are expected to have different trends [4] - **Energy Chemical Sector**: Geopolitical situations support oil prices, and chemical products continue to trade sideways. It is advisable to hold light positions during the holiday. Various chemical products are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Agricultural Sector**: As the holiday approaches, most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate. Some products such as live pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly downward [5]

每经AI快讯，2月11日，国内商品期市午盘多数上涨，新能源材料涨幅居前，碳酸锂涨4.96%；基本金 属多数上涨，沪镍涨4.31%；贵金属全部上涨，铂金涨2.79%；黑色系多数上涨，不锈钢涨2.55%；能源 品全部上涨，低硫燃料油涨2.44%；化工品多数上涨，20号胶涨1.97%；农副产品多数上涨，红枣涨 1.61%；油脂油料多数上涨，豆一涨1.21%；非金属建材涨跌参半，PVC涨0.65%；航运期货跌幅居前， 集运指数(欧线)跌0.65%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, energy products, shipping futures, and oilseeds all rising, while agricultural products showed mixed performance [1]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening marginally, but the overall steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. - The rise of copper prices is restricted due to the increase in global copper inventories and the suppression of demand by high prices, while precious metals are supported by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. - The bullish sentiment in the domestic crude - oil sector is high, driven by external markets. The short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation, and the global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026 [1]. - Oilseeds rose due to strong export sales data and positive market sentiment. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Market - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Precious metals led the gains with Shanghai silver up 12.78%, energy products all rose (fuel oil up 6.81%), shipping futures all rose (Containerized Freight Index (Europe Line) up 5.46%), oilseeds all rose (rapeseed oil up 4.08%), most chemical products rose (butadiene rubber up 3.59%), non - metallic building materials all rose (glass up 2.45%), most base metals rose (Shanghai tin up 1.37%), black series showed mixed performance (coking coal up 1.35%), most new energy materials rose (polysilicon up 1.19%), and agricultural products led the decline (pigs down 0.99%) [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Different Commodity Sectors 3.2.1 Black Series - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills increased maintenance, suppressing iron ore. With high inventories, iron ore futures fluctuated lower. In the future, although the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, the steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and closed slightly higher. The rise was driven by precious metals, but the increase in global copper inventories and high - price suppression of demand limited the rise. Precious metals such as Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver hit new highs due to geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemical Products - Driven by external markets, the domestic crude - oil sector was bullish. Short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation. The global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026, but the surplus pressure in the first quarter is reduced due to OPEC+ suspending production increase [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds - Driven by strong export sales data, US soybeans continued to rise slightly, and domestic soybeans also rose. With the approaching Spring Festival, soybean meal prices stopped falling and rose. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority of increases, with precious metals leading the gains, particularly platinum which rose by 8.80% [1] - All chemical products experienced an increase, with butadiene rubber rising by 6.99% [1] - All new energy materials saw an uptick, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.68% [1] Group 2 - Most base metals also rose, with Shanghai tin increasing by 4.19% [1] - All non-metallic building materials experienced gains, with PVC rising by 1.78% [1] - The black series commodities all increased, with coking coal rising by 1.64% [1] Group 3 - Most agricultural products saw increases, with logs rising by 1.57% [1] - Energy products showed mixed results, with fuel oil increasing by 1.54% [1] - Most oilseeds and oils rose, with soybean one increasing by 0.97% [1] Group 4 - Shipping futures faced declines, with the container shipping index (European line) dropping by 1.38% [1]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday (January 15th), most domestic commodity futures closed lower, with precious metals leading the decline, while basic metals had significant gains and agricultural products showed a mixed trend [1] - Industrial products mostly weakened, and agricultural products were a mix of gains and losses [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Black Series - Most black series commodities declined. The steel market is in a weak supply - demand balance, with prices fluctuating according to market sentiment. Terminal demand is facing a downward trend in the off - season, market transactions are sluggish, and although there is a slight increase in production, cost support is relatively stable. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [1] Basic Metals - Basic metals showed mixed performance. For Shanghai copper, the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. The 01 contract expired, the near - month spread weakened, and electrolytic copper inventories increased. For industrial silicon futures, production decreased, demand was average, and the market was mainly circulated among futures - spot traders. It is expected that prices will fluctuate and wait for industry follow - up [1] Energy Products - Most energy products declined. Negative sentiment from the external market affected the domestic market. The fundamentals of crude oil are weak, with sufficient supply and weak demand. If the geopolitical situation does not worsen, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, but a sharp escalation of geopolitical risks could lead to a short - term surge in oil prices [1] Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils declined. Weak US soybeans and lower import costs pressured domestic soybean meal prices. The expected improvement in China - Canada relations affected rapeseed meal. High supply continued to suppress the soybean meal market. For oils, the high inventory in Malaysia and the improvement in January's supply - demand situation are in a game, but factors such as the setback of Indonesia's B50 implementation and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations have put pressure on the market [1]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a Hotspot Tracking released on January 9, 2026, by the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Daily Data Analysis Daily Price Changes and Fund Flows - The report presents the daily price changes and fund flows of various futures and commodities including Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, etc [5] Daily Fund Changes - It shows the percentage changes in funds for a wide range of futures and commodities [7] Daily Trading Volume Changes - The percentage changes in trading volume for different futures and commodities are provided [9] Daily Fund Inflow Ranking - The top five commodities with daily fund inflows are Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, Wire Rod, and Fuel Oil; the top five with daily fund outflows are Nickel, Peanut, Coking Coal, Pulp, and Alumina [11] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of different futures and commodities are given, with CSI 1000 Futures at 16%, CSI 500 Futures at 13%, Shanghai Gold at 11%, etc [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday (December 29), domestic commodity futures markets closed with mixed results. Industrial products showed a mixed performance, while agricultural products were also a mix of gains and losses. There are different trends and potential risks in various sectors such as black metals, base metals, energy - chemicals, and oilseeds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Black Metals - Black metals led the gains. Steel prices had limited fluctuations in a supply - demand weak pattern, with a slight increase in closing prices. Steel mills are under profit pressure, with a strong willingness to control production. As the off - season deepens, there may be a risk of price correction for rolled steel products. Policy changes should be monitored [1] 3.2 Base Metals - Most base metals rose. Copper prices climbed on Friday night but fell in the afternoon. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but high prices may suppress purchases, and the market may enter a inventory - building phase. Carbonate lithium prices dropped significantly, with a marginal weakening in fundamentals [2] 3.3 Energy - Chemicals - Most energy - chemicals declined. After Christmas, international crude oil prices dropped, and domestic crude oil followed. The future of the crude oil market is influenced by supply - surplus expectations and uncertain geopolitical factors [2] 3.4 Oilseeds - Most oilseeds declined. External market weakness affected domestic oils. The inventory situation of Malaysian palm oil may suppress short - term rebounds, and attention should be paid to the full - month production and export performance of Malaysian palm oil in December. Changes in the US soybean oil market after the implementation of the 45Z tax credit rule also need to be monitored [3][4] 3.5 Index Performance - The overall performance of the Guomao Commodity Composite Index decreased by 0.30%. The Guomao Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.22%, the Guomao Agricultural Products Index decreased by 0.20%, and the Guomao Energy - Chemicals Index decreased by 1.09%, while the Guomao Oilseeds Index decreased by 0.37% [4]