| 程资咨询业务资格: | ITG 国贸期货 | 证监许可【2012】31号 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸商品指数 | 国贸商品指数日报 | | | ITE C | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 从业资格号: F3014717 2025/12/16 Z0013223 宏观金融中心 投资咨询号: | | | | (12月15日),国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半,新能源材料涨幅居前,多晶硅涨3.61%;航运期货 | | | | 全部上涨,集运指数(欧线)涨3.30%;黑色系多数上涨,焦煤涨3.16%;贵金属全部上涨,沪金涨 | | | | 1. 92%;非金属建材全部上涨,PVC涨1. 60%;化工品多数上涨,丁二烯橡胶涨1.54%;能源品多数上 涨,燃油涨1.50%;农副产品多数上涨,鸡蛋涨1.23%;基本金属跌幅居前,国际铜跌1.45%;油脂油 | | | | 料全部下跌,棕榈油跌0.96%。 | | | | 热评:周一国内商品涨跌参半,其中,工业品走势分化,农产品涨跌参半。具体来看; | | | | (1) 黑色系多数上涨。近期钢材供需双弱,期钢盘面维持偏弱运行。受全国寒潮影响,气温大幅 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most contracts declining, particularly in the chemical sector where rubber fell by 1.58% [1] - Non-metallic building materials experienced a complete decline, with glass down by 1.47% [1] - Shipping futures also saw a decline, with the shipping index (European line) dropping by 1.45% [1] - Most energy products decreased, with fuel oil down by 0.45% [1] - Precious metals showed an upward trend, with silver rising by 0.31% [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market Insights - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures slightly decreased, following the trend of Dalian palm oil futures, with the benchmark February palm oil contract closing down by 3 ringgit, or 0.07%, at 4,156 ringgit per ton [14] - A recent survey indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six-and-a-half-year high due to declining exports and record production [14] - The Malaysian Federal Land Development Authority received orders to evacuate palm oil plantation lands, which may impact operations and national production [14] Group 3: Copper Market Developments - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.74% to 90,760 yuan per ton [15] - The London Metal Exchange reported a significant increase in copper delivery applications, surging by 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons, marking the largest increase by tonnage since 2013 [15] - Ivanhoe Mines announced that the Kamoa-Kakula project aims for copper production targets of 380,000 to 420,000 tons in 2026 and 500,000 to 540,000 tons in 2027 [15] Group 4: Rebar Steel Market Outlook - Rebar prices are expected to show a strong fluctuation, with the RB2601 contract projected to rise to around 3,200 yuan [18] - The rebar market in December is relatively strong, supported by reduced production and inventory depletion, leading to shortages in some regions [18] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, construction activity in southern regions and rising winter storage expectations are expected to support rebar prices [18] Group 5: Logistics and Economic Indicators - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index for November was 50.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [19] - The business volume index also rose to 50.9%, indicating a balanced recovery across regions, with central and western regions exceeding the national level [19] Group 6: Global Economic Context - The U.S. ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, the largest drop in two and a half years, further increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [20] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is approaching 90% [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On December 1st, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, while agricultural products showed mixed performance. Industrial products mostly rose, and agricultural products had both gains and losses [1] - The focus of the steel futures market in December will shift from reality to macro - expectations, and short - term market sentiment is favorable [1] - The rising trend of basic metals is supported by multiple factors, and the fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable [1] - The geopolitical situation and OPEC's production plan affect the energy - chemical products market, and the pressure on oil prices may increase if Russian oil returns to normal [1] - The short - term soybean market lacks new drivers, and palm oil prices may rise if the减产 logic is confirmed [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Black Series - All black series commodities rose. The recent demand for finished products improved, speculative demand rebounded significantly, and inventory continued to decline. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.25% to 1400.81 million tons, reaching a 3.5 - month low, while production increased by 0.68% to 85.71 million tons, and apparent demand slightly decreased by 0.69% to 88 million tons, still higher than the same period last year [1] Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. The price of copper broke through the previous high, and the upward trend is supported by multiple factors in the medium term. The price of aluminum fluctuated upward, with low inventory and resilient demand [1] Energy - Chemical Products - Most energy - chemical products rose. International oil prices pulled up strongly in Asian electronic trading, and the domestic crude - oil series mostly rose. Geopolitical contradictions remain, and OPEC plans to maintain the current production plan. The pressure on oil prices will increase if Russian oil returns to normal [1] Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils rose. The price of US soybeans declined, and the domestic soybean meal market lacks new drivers. Palm oil prices are supported by seasonal production reduction expectations, and the price may rise if the reduction logic is confirmed [1] Index Changes - The comprehensive index of Guomao Commodities rose by 1.13% from 2200 to 2224.82 [1] - The daily consumption index rose by 0.85% from 1587.47 to 1601.03 [1] - The Guomao Black Commodity Index rose by 1.12% from 1700.99 to 1720.10 [1] - The Guomao Energy - Chemical Index decreased by 0.05% from 575.99 to 575.72 [1] - The Guomao Oilseeds and Oils Index rose by 0.03% from 2124.65 to 2125.19 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Short - term news boosts oil prices, but long - term inventory pressure limits the rebound space and sustainability of oil prices [2] - Precious metals are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts and tight spot supply, showing high volatility [3] - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - Aluminum prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions and macro - sentiment dominance [5] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, short - term news boosts prices, but long - term inventory pressure exists [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term, and supply will be loose in the medium - term; low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant [20] - **Asphalt**: Demand in some areas drives inventory reduction, but overall, year - end supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Urea**: Short - term market is strong due to downstream procurement, but long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [22] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and port inventory may suppress the market [23] - **Pure Benzene**: Price is in a volatile pattern due to supply - demand factors [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Cost support is strengthened, and supply - demand is in a tight balance [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International oil prices drive futures price rebounds, but spot demand is hard to release [26] - **PVC &烧碱**: PVC is in a low - level range, and烧碱 is in a weak operation [27] - **PX & PTA**: PX price rebounds, PTA is cost - driven, and supply - demand situations vary in the short and medium - term [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is marginally improved, but mid - term weakness remains [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle - chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [30] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver drives the strength of precious metals, and platinum is favored [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are expected to rise, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - **Aluminum**: Prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions [5] - **Zinc**: Prices are in a range - bound state, with strong bottom support [8] - **Tin**: Prices may have short - term space, but mid - term fundamentals are general [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Bottom support is expected to move down [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Bottom support will be tested [18] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices rebound, but demand is weak, and supply pressure is gradually relieved [13] - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to be volatile, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [14] - **Coke**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [16] Agriculture - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and domestic supply is sufficient. Observe the callback and look for long - position opportunities [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil supply - demand is weak but marginally improving; soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term drivers are not significant, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a high - level shock, and pay attention to new - grain sales and trade agreements [38] - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton exports are improving, and domestic new - cotton sales are fast. Look for hedging opportunities [41] - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production in Guangxi is expected to be good [42] - **Apples**: Short - term prices are strong, but long - term inventory pressure may exist [43] - **Timber**: Low inventory supports prices, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [44] - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are in a downward trend due to weak fundamentals, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [45] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFI European route shows weak price increase, and different contracts of the container shipping index have different trends [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index**: Short - term macro and geopolitical uncertainties exist, and maintain a wait - and - see and defensive strategy [46] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures show a differentiated performance, and there is a weak - volatile pattern [47]

Market Overview - A-shares opened slightly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.11% and the ChiNext Index down 0.04% [1] - The total trading volume in the Wande All A collection auction was only 12.9 billion, marking a new low for the stage [1] - Hong Kong stocks opened higher but turned negative, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.33% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.2% [1][2] Sector Performance - OCS concept stocks mostly retreated, while sectors like deep-sea technology, gold, and superconductors performed well [1] - Large technology stocks in Hong Kong saw minor increases, with Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com all rising less than 0.9% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector continued its upward trend, with Chalco International rising by 6% [1] Bond Market - Government bond futures opened higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.11% and the 10-year main contract up 0.02% [2][3] Currency Exchange - The RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0789, down 10 points from the previous day [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 17, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results, with new energy materials leading the gains and precious metals leading the losses. Industrial products showed mixed performance, while most agricultural products declined [1]. - The steel market is currently in a stage dominated by weak reality and supported by costs. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. - The decline in basic metals is due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite [1]. - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with both positive and negative factors coexisting. In the short term, some factors support the oil price [1]. - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. Domestic soybean meal may continue to trade in a range, and the three major oils may continue to show a differentiated trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Performance of Different Commodity Categories - **New Energy Materials**: Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit with a 9.00% increase [1]. - **Shipping Futures**: All shipping futures rose, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.73% [1]. - **Black Series**: All black - series commodities rose, with iron ore up 1.81%. The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage [1]. - **Chemicals**: Most chemicals rose, with urea up 0.79% [1]. - **Energy Products**: Most energy products rose, with LPG up 0.78% [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals led the losses, with Shanghai silver down 4.08% [1]. - **Basic Metals**: All basic metals declined, with Shanghai aluminum down 1.39% [1]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Most oilseeds and oils declined, with soybeans down 1.23% [1]. - **Non - metallic Building Materials**: All non - metallic building materials declined, with glass down 1.15% [1]. - **Agricultural By - products**: Most agricultural by - products declined, with live pigs down 0.81% [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Commodity Categories 3.2.1 Black Series - The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Steel futures prices rose on Monday due to the rebound of raw material prices and the start of environmental inspections in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region. However, in the short term, the expectation of large - scale economic stimulus has cooled, and there is still downward pressure on the steel market due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. 3.2.2 Basic Metals - The decline in basic metals is mainly due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite and a general softening of the non - ferrous metal market [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with positive factors including the continuation of US sanctions on oil - producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties, and negative factors including OPEC+'s stance on increasing production and weak global economic demand. In the short term, factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the oil price [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds and Oils - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. The domestic soybean meal market is under the pressure of weak fundamentals and the support of US soybean costs, and may continue to trade in a range. The three major oils showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil rebounding. Although the Indonesian biodiesel policy boosted palm oil prices, the decline in export demand limited its increase [1].

Group 1: Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market opened mixed, with energy products leading the gains, as crude oil rose by 2.11% [1] - Most base metals increased, with Shanghai tin up by 1.42%, while precious metals also saw gains, with Shanghai silver rising by 0.96% [1] - Agricultural products mostly declined, with live pigs down by 0.93%, and chemical products also saw a downward trend, with ethylene glycol falling by 0.89% [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day, supported by stronger Chicago soybean oil, but faced pressure from weather concerns and weak November export data [2] - The benchmark January palm oil contract closed up by 27 Malaysian Ringgit, or 0.66%, at 4,139 Malaysian Ringgit per ton [2] Group 3: Rubber Market - Current demand for rubber is at its best level post-pandemic, with strong performance in heavy truck data and high operating rates in downstream tire factories [3] - There is a willingness among downstream tire manufacturers to accept orders, but supply remains the core factor, with future production increases dependent on weather conditions [3] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with continued inventory reduction during the peak season [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains recognized, and there is still upward momentum, although spot prices are lagging, indicating potential profit-taking risks [4] Group 5: Market Events and Trends - The People's Bank of China released its monetary policy report for Q3 2025, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions [5] - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to B50 next year, which may impact palm oil exports and tighten global supply, potentially leading to a spike in palm oil prices [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On October 27, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with new energy materials leading the gains and agricultural products showing mixed performance. The report analyzes the market trends of different commodity sectors and their influencing factors, and provides an outlook on the future market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - All black series commodities rose. Despite weak terminal demand for steel, heavy - pollution weather emergency responses in Hebei led to a collective rise. Last week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.73% week - on - week to 15.5485 million tons, but was 23.47% higher than the same period last year. Production increased by 0.98% week - on - week, and apparent demand increased by 1.98% week - on - week to 8.9273 million tons, slightly lower than last year. The overall supply - demand pattern still poses pressure on price increases [1]. Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. The macro - environment has improved recently. China's "155" plan was passed last week, and the Sino - US trade negotiation reached a preliminary consensus over the weekend, boosting market confidence and metal demand expectations. The lower - than - expected US CPI in September deepened market bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts, making overseas liquidity more relaxed. However, high prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Most energy and chemical products rose. Short - term geopolitical disturbances pushed up oil prices, and the SC crude oil main contract drove the energy - chemical sector to close higher. Due to US sanctions on Russian oil companies, supply concerns persist, but demand remains weak, and the oversupply of crude oil remains unchanged. In the short term, it is a rebound after an oversell, and the medium - term upside is limited [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - Oilseeds and oils showed mixed performance. The market has positive expectations for the Sino - US trade negotiation, and CBOT soybeans continued to be strong. However, the double - meal market is cautious due to uncertainties about US soybean procurement. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased from October 1 - 25, while production increased, and the market expects inventory to rise, causing palm oil prices to weaken. In the short term, the oil market may continue to fluctuate [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday (October 15), the domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most industrial products falling and most agricultural products rising [1] - For the black series, the steel market lacks positive drivers, the post - holiday supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price increase pressure persists [1] - For basic metals, market risk preference has declined, but the cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [1] - For energy and chemical products, international oil prices have hit new lows, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term [1] - For oils and fats and oilseeds, the domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support, but there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Commodity Futures Market Performance - Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 4.25%; metals all rose, with silver rising 2.30%; oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybeans rising 0.76%; agricultural and sideline products all rose, with corn rising 0.67% [1] - Energy products led the losses, with low - sulfur fuel oil falling 1.90%; non - metallic building materials all fell, with glass falling 1.74%; the black series mostly fell, with iron ore falling 1.46%; basic metals were mixed, with zinc falling 1.17%; chemicals mostly fell, with asphalt falling 1.10%; new energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate falling 0.60% [1] 3.2 Black Series - The five major steel product inventories increased by 8.68% week - on - week to 1.60072 billion tons last week, with the increase much higher than 3.65% in the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 19.5%. The accumulated inventory needs time to digest, exports face new challenges, and steel supply is expected to remain high, resulting in prominent fundamental contradictions and continuous price increase pressure [1] 3.3 Basic Metals - In the copper market, the intensification of Sino - US game has boosted risk - aversion sentiment and weakened global economic growth expectations. The cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue high - level fluctuations [1] 3.4 Energy and Chemical Products - International oil prices hit new lows since early May, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term due to the uncertainty of the macro - level [1] 3.5 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - The domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support and is in a weak adjustment. The export data of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. The supply of South American soybeans is expected to be strong, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are under pressure. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3.6 Index Performance - The Guomao Commodity Composite Index rose 0.98% from October 14 to October 15 [1] - The Guomao Bulk Commodity Index rose 0.15% [1] - The Guomao Non - Metallic Mineral Products Index rose 0.13% [1] - The Guomao Agricultural and Sideline Products Index fell 0.66% [1] - The Guomao Petroleum and Oil Index rose 1.03% [1] - The Guomao Primary Chemicals Index rose 0.04% [1] - The Guomao Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Index rose 0.27% [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products and agricultural products mostly weakening [1]. 3. Summary by Category Black Series - Most black series commodities fell. The market sentiment was weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from a high. The actual situation of the black series remained weak, and the rebar futures reached a more than three - month low. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 8.68% week - on - week to 1.60072 billion tons, with the increase far higher than 3.65% of the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 19.5%. In the future, the property transactions during the National Day holiday were halved year - on - year, the national replenishment in many places was suspended, the sales of automobiles and home appliances declined, and the accumulated inventory needed time to digest. Exports also faced new challenges, so the fundamental contradictions were prominent, and the upward pressure on prices continued [1]. Basic Metals - Most basic metals declined. In the copper market, there was concern about the Sino - US tariff game. The market had different views on copper, mainly focusing on capital pull and demand pressure in traditional fields. The domestic copper market might continue the feature of "both supply and demand being weak". For aluminum, non - ferrous metals rose and then fell. The spot in East China was at par, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods had a neutral accumulation. There were signs of inventory reduction in major regions on Tuesday. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically the same year - on - year, and the demand was resilient but lacked a high point. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate, and the upside space should be carefully viewed [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products weakened. As the macro - sentiment eased and investors' risk appetite gradually recovered, international crude oil prices rebounded. However, the willingness of domestic funds to chase the rise was relatively cautious, and the main contract of SC crude oil continued to decline. In the future, the market entered the TACO trading mode, and oil prices might fluctuate and repair in the short term. But the unpredictable style of Trump made the macro - level highly uncertain, and the trading rhythm was difficult to grasp. In the medium and long term, as geopolitical risks eased, the price center might move down [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils declined. The weakening of external - market oils and the decline of crude oil led to a weak overall sentiment in the oil market. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.41 million tons, up 340,000 tons year - on - year, at a high level in recent years. The fundamentals of oils lacked positive support for the time being, and they were expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices. In the long term, palm oil was about to enter the seasonal production - reduction period, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia would have an impact, so oils still had room to rise. The decline of double - meal (rapeseed meal and soybean meal) widened, and rapeseed meal reached a three - month low. The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal in China was at a high level, and the weak fundamentals restricted the upward space of prices. In the short term, double - meal might continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the arrival of imported soybeans and rapeseeds [1]. Others - Shipping futures had a large increase, with the Container Freight Index (European Line) rising 7.36%. All precious metals rose, with Shanghai gold rising 2.70%. Most new - energy materials rose, with polysilicon rising 2.55% [1].