| 国贸商品指数 | 证监许可【2012】31号 ITC 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格: | | --- | --- | | ITEC | 国贸商品指数日报 | | | 国贸期货研究院 F3014717 从业资格号: 别建春 2026/01/27 | | | Z0013223 宏观金融中心 投资咨询号: | | | -(1月26日),国内商品期市收盘多数上涨,贵金属涨幅居前,沪银涨12.78%;能源品全部. | | | 涨,燃油涨6.81%;航运期货全部上涨,集运指数(欧线)涨5.46%;油脂油料全部上涨,菜油涨 4.08%;化工品多数上涨,丁二烯橡胶涨3.59%;非金属建材全部上涨,玻璃涨2.45%;基本金属多数 | | | 上涨,沪锡涨1.37%;黑色系涨跌参半,焦煤涨1.35%;新能源材料多数上涨,多晶硅涨1.19%;农副 | | | 产品跌幅居前,生猪跌0.99%。 | | | 热评:周一国内商品多数上涨,其中,工业品多数上涨,农产品涨跌互现。具体来看: | | | (1)黑色系涨跌参半。春节前夕钢厂加大检修力度,造成对铁矿的压制,叠加库存高企,铁矿期货 震荡走低,主力小幅收跌。对于后市,目前铁矿石基本 ...

每经AI快讯，1月23日，国内商品期市午盘多数上涨，贵金属涨幅居前，铂金涨8.80%；化工品全部上 涨，丁二烯橡胶涨6.99%；新能源材料全部上涨，碳酸锂涨4.68%；基本金属多数上涨，沪锡涨4.19%； 非金属建材全部上涨，PVC涨1.78%；黑色系全部上涨，焦炭涨1.64%；农副产品多数上涨，原木涨 1.57%；能源品涨跌参半，燃油涨1.54%；油脂油料多数上涨，豆一涨0.97%；航运期货跌幅居前，集运 指数(欧线)跌1.38%。 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday (January 15th), most domestic commodity futures closed lower, with precious metals leading the decline, while basic metals had significant gains and agricultural products showed a mixed trend [1] - Industrial products mostly weakened, and agricultural products were a mix of gains and losses [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Black Series - Most black series commodities declined. The steel market is in a weak supply - demand balance, with prices fluctuating according to market sentiment. Terminal demand is facing a downward trend in the off - season, market transactions are sluggish, and although there is a slight increase in production, cost support is relatively stable. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [1] Basic Metals - Basic metals showed mixed performance. For Shanghai copper, the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. The 01 contract expired, the near - month spread weakened, and electrolytic copper inventories increased. For industrial silicon futures, production decreased, demand was average, and the market was mainly circulated among futures - spot traders. It is expected that prices will fluctuate and wait for industry follow - up [1] Energy Products - Most energy products declined. Negative sentiment from the external market affected the domestic market. The fundamentals of crude oil are weak, with sufficient supply and weak demand. If the geopolitical situation does not worsen, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, but a sharp escalation of geopolitical risks could lead to a short - term surge in oil prices [1] Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils declined. Weak US soybeans and lower import costs pressured domestic soybean meal prices. The expected improvement in China - Canada relations affected rapeseed meal. High supply continued to suppress the soybean meal market. For oils, the high inventory in Malaysia and the improvement in January's supply - demand situation are in a game, but factors such as the setback of Indonesia's B50 implementation and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations have put pressure on the market [1]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a Hotspot Tracking released on January 9, 2026, by the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Daily Data Analysis Daily Price Changes and Fund Flows - The report presents the daily price changes and fund flows of various futures and commodities including Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, etc [5] Daily Fund Changes - It shows the percentage changes in funds for a wide range of futures and commodities [7] Daily Trading Volume Changes - The percentage changes in trading volume for different futures and commodities are provided [9] Daily Fund Inflow Ranking - The top five commodities with daily fund inflows are Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, Wire Rod, and Fuel Oil; the top five with daily fund outflows are Nickel, Peanut, Coking Coal, Pulp, and Alumina [11] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of different futures and commodities are given, with CSI 1000 Futures at 16%, CSI 500 Futures at 13%, Shanghai Gold at 11%, etc [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday (December 29), domestic commodity futures markets closed with mixed results. Industrial products showed a mixed performance, while agricultural products were also a mix of gains and losses. There are different trends and potential risks in various sectors such as black metals, base metals, energy - chemicals, and oilseeds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Black Metals - Black metals led the gains. Steel prices had limited fluctuations in a supply - demand weak pattern, with a slight increase in closing prices. Steel mills are under profit pressure, with a strong willingness to control production. As the off - season deepens, there may be a risk of price correction for rolled steel products. Policy changes should be monitored [1] 3.2 Base Metals - Most base metals rose. Copper prices climbed on Friday night but fell in the afternoon. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but high prices may suppress purchases, and the market may enter a inventory - building phase. Carbonate lithium prices dropped significantly, with a marginal weakening in fundamentals [2] 3.3 Energy - Chemicals - Most energy - chemicals declined. After Christmas, international crude oil prices dropped, and domestic crude oil followed. The future of the crude oil market is influenced by supply - surplus expectations and uncertain geopolitical factors [2] 3.4 Oilseeds - Most oilseeds declined. External market weakness affected domestic oils. The inventory situation of Malaysian palm oil may suppress short - term rebounds, and attention should be paid to the full - month production and export performance of Malaysian palm oil in December. Changes in the US soybean oil market after the implementation of the 45Z tax credit rule also need to be monitored [3][4] 3.5 Index Performance - The overall performance of the Guomao Commodity Composite Index decreased by 0.30%. The Guomao Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.22%, the Guomao Agricultural Products Index decreased by 0.20%, and the Guomao Energy - Chemicals Index decreased by 1.09%, while the Guomao Oilseeds Index decreased by 0.37% [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most prices rising, particularly precious metals, with platinum increasing by 9.99% [1] - All new energy materials saw an increase, with lithium carbonate rising by 4.85% [1] - Most base metals experienced gains, with international copper rising by 2.89% [1] Group 2 - Energy products mostly increased, with fuel oil rising by 1.50% [1] - Oilseeds and oils also saw an upward trend, with soybean meal increasing by 1.35% [1] - Chemical products generally rose, with 20 rubber increasing by 0.67% [1] Group 3 - Agricultural products mostly increased, with corn rising by 0.50% [1] - The black series experienced declines, with coke falling by 1.75% [1] - Non-metallic building materials all declined, with glass dropping by 1.33% [1] Group 4 - Shipping futures all declined, with the container shipping index (European line) falling by 0.28% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday (December 24), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, while shipping futures led the declines. Industrial and agricultural products mostly rose. The overall market showed different trends in various sectors, and the future trends depend on multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Performance - On December 24, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Precious metals had significant gains, with silver rising 8.12% and palladium and platinum hitting the daily limit. Energy materials, basic metals, chemicals, and other sectors mostly rose, while shipping futures declined, with the container shipping index (European line) dropping 1.63% [1]. - The overall commodity index rose 0.97%, from 2294.47 on December 23 to 2316.76 on December 24 [1]. Sector Analysis - **Black - series**: Most black - series commodities rose. Due to weak terminal demand, the futures prices of finished products fluctuated with market sentiment and related varieties in the industry chain. The steel market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with the domestic macro - policy in a window period, and the growth rates of industries such as real estate and infrastructure continuing to decline. The overall fundamentals lack effective driving factors, and the market is likely to fluctuate within a range, with attention paid to macro - policy changes [1]. - **Basic metals**: All basic metals rose. The copper market's tight ore situation continued, and there were concerns about the possible spread to the smelting end. The hot precious - metal market also drove the copper price. Lithium carbonate continued to rise, reaching a two - year high. The recent rapid increase was due to supply - side interference, and the market interpreted the news of the first environmental assessment information publicity stage of the Xiawo lithium mine as slower - than - expected resumption of production. With short - term supply pressure relieved, downstream demand remaining resilient, and optimistic market sentiment spreading, the futures price of lithium carbonate remained strong [1]. - **Energy and chemical products**: Most energy and chemical products rose. International oil prices rose for the third consecutive day, and the SC crude oil main contract fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher. In the future, although the oversupply of crude oil is a general trend, the US blockade of Venezuela has alleviated the oversupply pressure to some extent, and other geopolitical factors have also emerged. It is reasonable to estimate a risk premium of about $3 for the current oil price, and the future oil price is likely to fluctuate [1]. - **Oilseeds and oils**: Most oilseeds and oils rose. Due to position adjustment before the Christmas holiday, US soybeans rebounded slightly, but the market was still cautious about the export sales speed of US soybeans, and the expected high - yield in South America also restricted the rise of US soybean prices. The domestic market was in a shock - adjustment state. The supply side of US soybeans is waiting for the January USDA report to finalize production, and the main logic has shifted to the demand side. The short - term trend is likely to remain weak. On Wednesday, oils fluctuated higher, and rapeseed oil led the oils to rebound from the low level. The domestic oil market continued to build a bottom, following the international oil market. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of destocking, which led to a significant increase in the near - month contract. In contrast, palm oil and soybean oil faced selling pressure at high levels, and the market may fluctuate at low levels repeatedly without new positive news, and capital games may intensify [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant price increases in various commodities, including palladium and platinum reaching their daily limit, with silver rising over 6% and lithium carbonate increasing by more than 5% [1] - The shipping index for Europe has also seen a rise of over 4%, indicating a positive trend in shipping costs [1] - In contrast, certain materials such as plastic, glass, and PVC have experienced declines of nearly 2%, suggesting a mixed performance across different sectors [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report On December 15th, the domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results. New energy materials, shipping futures, black commodities, precious metals, non - metallic building materials, most chemicals, energy products, and most agricultural and sideline products showed gains, while basic metals and all oilseeds and fats declined. Industrial products had a differentiated performance, and agricultural products were also mixed [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Black Commodities - Most black commodities rose. Recently, the supply and demand of steel were both weak, and the steel futures market remained weak. Affected by the cold wave, outdoor construction was further restricted, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products last week dropped to 839.72 million tons, the lowest in the same period in recent years, with a month - on - month decline of 2.83%. Although the fundamentals were not strongly driven, policy factors might cause fluctuations. In the short term, due to positive domestic and foreign macro - expectations, steel trading was active, and steel prices still had the impetus to rebound, but the upward space was limited, with a medium - term weak outlook [1]. Basic Metals - This category had the largest decline. For copper, after the Fed's interest rate cut and restart of Treasury bond purchases, the liquidity expectation was marginally relaxed, and the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference was positive. Although the short - term bullish sentiment cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices was small, and it might shift to a volatile trend. The supply of copper ore remained tight, the supply of refined copper in China was expected to increase, but the downstream operating rate was stable, and the surplus pressure was not significant. - Lithium carbonate first fell and then rose. The arrival volume of lithium ore at ports was expected to increase month - on - month in the next month, and the tight supply situation at the mine end was expected to ease marginally. The resumption of production at lithium mines was in progress. The high - growth demand for energy storage continued, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate had not changed, and social inventories continued to decline, which supported the strong operation of futures prices [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - The movement of energy and chemical products was volatile. On Monday, the main contract of SC crude oil was hesitant, and the market sentiment became more cautious. In the short term, crude oil inventories decreased while refined oil inventories increased significantly, and the fundamentals remained under pressure. Geopolitical and macro - factors were still uncertain, and oil prices were under pressure and volatile. In the medium term, the contradiction of oversupply was predominant, and the center of oil prices might decline. However, there was a risk of upward correction in oil prices from December to January due to the resonance of geopolitical risks, cold wave impacts, and low - inventory destocking [1]. Oilseeds and Fats - All oilseeds and fats declined. Due to weak US export demand and the upcoming harvest in Brazil, traders closed their long positions, and US soybeans fell to a seven - week low. In the domestic market, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal were weak. The main contract of soybean meal increased in positions and declined, and the main contract of rapeseed meal also slightly declined. The market lacked the impetus to continue rebounding. In addition to the weak external market suppressing the cost of soybean imports, the domestic soybean meal market fundamentals were also bearish. Although the short - term spot prices were supported, the far - month contracts were still suppressed by the loose supply pattern. The electronic trading of CBOT soybean oil oscillated at a low level. The uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy was bearish for the soybean oil market, and the decline of US soybeans also dragged down the domestic oil market. The main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil both declined, and the decline of rapeseed oil futures was obvious. The abundant international supply continued to pressure the market. Although the news of strict customs inspections on non - genetically modified rapeseed oil imports briefly boosted the market sentiment, the impact on actual supply and demand was limited, and the speculation sentiment in the rapeseed oil market cooled. The near - term supply should focus on the crushing rhythm of Australian rapeseeds [1].