从 CPI 结构看消费品量价趋势 20251123 摘要 服务消费需求强劲，飞机票和旅游价格上涨，黄金珠宝受国际金价影响 显著上涨，表明体验消费和情绪消费持续增长，服务业供给约束是价格 稳定的关键因素。 PPI 与 CPI 关系非对称，PPI 下行期 CPI 可能保持稳定，对企业有利。预 计 2026 年整体消费量价平稳，食品饮料大众品已现企稳迹象，白酒行 业加速出清后预计 2026 上半年见底。 食品饮料板块中，燕京啤酒、东鹏饮料、百龙创园等大众品龙头明年或 有 30%增长，值得配置；白酒行业应配置品牌和管理能力强的公司，如 汾酒、古井贡酒及茅五泸。 政策支持服务消费，中小学生春秋假推动旅游产业链发展，OTA 竞争格 局改善吸引资金流入，亚朵、华住等酒店公司和景区迎来配置时点。 黄金珠宝市场前景乐观，金价上涨成消费者共识，品牌势能上升和转型 快的"一口价"公司值得关注，同时关注智能眼镜和 AI 教育等 AI 领域。 制造业方面，看好以造纸为代表的中游制造细分赛道，如太阳博汇、九 龙纸业，以及两片罐龙头奥瑞金等，出口链个股如共创草坪等也具备投 资价值。 生猪价格对 CPI 影响显著，预计 2026 年下半年企 ...

Group 1 - The education industry is closely linked to admission and employment, having nurtured several companies with market values exceeding 100 billion RMB, driven by its essential demand and prepayment business model [2][12] - The "impossible triangle" of "large scale, low cost, and personalization" limits the industry, leading to low concentration levels, with K12 training having a CR5 of only 4.7% in 2017 [2][20] - AI education offers a new approach to address the "impossible triangle" by providing low-cost, personalized solutions, which is a significant development direction for the industry [2][24] Group 2 - The adjustment of the "five-five diversion" and the expansion of general high schools in response to national talent strategies present both challenges and opportunities for education service companies related to admissions [2][34] - The demand for education services is strong but varies across segments, with civil service exams seeing a record number of applicants, and vocational education gaining importance as skilled talent is increasingly valued [2][36] - The higher education enrollment rate in China is projected to rise from 48.1% in 2018 to 60.8% in 2024, indicating a strong desire for higher qualifications despite economic pressures [2][38] Group 3 - The K12 training sector is experiencing a slowdown in offline expansion, with leading companies focusing on quality improvement and shareholder returns [2][11] - The civil service exam sector remains robust, with companies like Huatu Education and Fenbi leveraging AI to enhance competitiveness against smaller institutions [2][12] - The vocational education leader, China Oriental Education, is benefiting from an increase in student enrollment and regional center development, leading to a rapid recovery in profit margins [2][11] Group 4 - The education industry is closely tied to policy direction and personal education service demand, with recommendations prioritizing civil service recruitment and vocational education sectors [2][5] - K12 training companies that can adapt to structural changes and improve educational quality are recommended, including companies like Excellence Education Group and New Oriental [2][5] - The transition of private higher education institutions has been slow, but recent positive signals from provinces like Guangdong and Hunan suggest potential for valuation recovery [2][5]

Group 1 - The High Energy Synchrotron Radiation Source (HEPS) in Beijing has passed its process acceptance, achieving leading international performance and supporting national strategic needs [2] - HEPS is designed to emit light 10 trillion times brighter than the sun, enabling researchers to better explore the microscopic world and understand material structures and their evolution [2] - The domestic irradiation accelerator market is in its early development stage, with potential market space for irradiation sterilization estimated at approximately 5.5 billion yuan and irradiation modification industry output expected to reach around 30 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - AI application business models are rapidly transitioning from concept validation to revenue generation, with significant growth in demand reflected by the increase in Tokens consumption [3] - As of September 2025, the number of monthly active users for AI applications on mobile platforms has surpassed 730 million, indicating a robust expansion in the sector [3] - Key AI application verticals such as AI programming, AI multimodal, AI advertising, AI education, and AI healthcare have demonstrated commercial value, with overseas business models showing clearer performance [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the new consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of technology-driven consumer products and new consumption trends [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the guidance from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session regarding the future development of the consumption industry, focusing on enhancing domestic demand and creating new supply through new demand [2]. - It emphasizes the rapid advancement of technology consumption in China, with certain products gaining competitive advantages in international markets, such as drones and smart home devices [2]. - The integration of AI with the consumer industry is identified as a key trend, leading to the emergence of innovative products and services [2]. - New consumption trends are driven by changing demographics and consumer preferences, with emotional consumption becoming a significant focus [2]. - Traditional consumption faces temporary pressures due to factors like housing prices and employment, but many sectors maintain strong international competitiveness [2]. Summary by Sections New Supply and Demand - The report discusses how new supply can create new demand, particularly through technological advancements in consumer products [2]. - It mentions the low penetration rates of certain tech products, indicating significant growth potential [2]. New Consumption Development - New consumption is rapidly evolving, driven by changes in population structure and consumer attitudes [2]. - Emotional consumption is highlighted as a key area, with trends in collectibles, outdoor activities, and pet-related products gaining traction [2]. Traditional Consumption Challenges - The report notes that traditional consumption is under pressure but retains strong international competitiveness [2]. - It anticipates a rebound in traditional consumption due to government subsidies in late 2024 and 2025, despite facing challenges from high export bases and tariff barriers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various sectors, including consumer services, food and beverage, agriculture, textiles, and technology consumption [2]. - Notable mentions include companies like Dongpeng Beverage, Anta Sports, and Roborock Technology, among others [2].

Core Viewpoint - The "first launch economy" is gaining momentum during the holiday season, with new stores, products, and exhibitions driving consumer enthusiasm and accelerating the release of consumption potential [1] Group 1: New Store Openings - The first artificial intelligence ecosystem flagship store opened in Shenzhen, featuring over 200 new products related to AI audio-visual, education, and office applications, along with an interactive experience area for consumers [1] - In Nanchang, the first "Home Appliance 3C Launch Center" opened, introducing over 50 brand flagship experience halls, showcasing products like a 163-inch giant screen TV and AR smart glasses, attracting a large number of consumers [1] Group 2: Consumer Engagement Activities - Various regions are creating new consumption scenarios and business formats centered around the "first launch economy," such as the International Dinosaur Culture Tourism Festival in Sichuan, which featured the global debut of intelligent simulation dinosaur robots [1] - A new robot theater opened in Shanghai, allowing consumers to interact with bionic robots and scientists, enhancing the experiential aspect of consumer engagement [1] - In Changsha, over 130 first-launch stores welcomed customers, hosting local cultural performances to stimulate holiday consumption [1] Group 3: Sales Performance - Sales platforms reported a 41% year-on-year increase in foot traffic to stores during the first four days of the holiday, with a remarkable 87% increase in new product reservations [1] - Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing emerged as the hottest consumption regions during the holiday period [1]

Group 1 - The roundtable dialogue between the Vietnamese government and Chinese business CEOs aims to enhance infrastructure connectivity and promote cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, digital economy, and green economy [3][4] - Vietnam's Deputy Prime Minister emphasized the importance of innovation and digital transformation, highlighting the active and diverse enterprise ecosystem in China that can contribute to production [3] - China Energy Engineering Group has invested approximately $2 billion in the Haiyang power plant, which is the largest single investment project by a Chinese company in Vietnam, focusing on green and low-carbon development [3] Group 2 - Runjian Co., a publicly listed artificial intelligence company, aims to promote resource sharing and collaborative partnerships in Vietnam, focusing on AI education, healthcare, and smart operations [4] - The company seeks to innovate and apply technologies such as embodied robots and AI agents to foster new digital economy business models in Vietnam [4]

Group 1 - The core topic of the sixth episode of "Principal Roundtable" is "AI Education," focusing on how to effectively implement this concept in practice [3][4] - The discussion highlights the transformative impact of AI on education, emphasizing changes in teaching models, educational ecology, and the need for a systemic upgrade in educational philosophy [4][9] - Key changes identified include shifts in educational concepts, personalized learning methods, the evolution of teacher-student dynamics, innovative evaluation methods, and the equitable distribution of educational resources [4][9] Group 2 - Schools in Zibo are actively exploring the application of AI in education to align with national and local policies on deepening AI education [2][3] - Zibo Foreign Language Experimental School has integrated AI technology throughout the entire teaching process, emphasizing a student-centered approach and maintaining ethical standards in AI use [5][6] - The role of teachers is evolving from knowledge transmitters to learning facilitators, requiring continuous professional development to adapt to new technologies [8][9] Group 3 - AI is reshaping vocational education by personalizing course content based on students' interests and aligning educational outcomes with industry needs [7][10] - The collaboration between schools and local industries is crucial for enhancing students' practical skills and career readiness [10][11] - The increasing recognition of vocational education reflects a shift in parental attitudes towards valuing practical skills over traditional academic credentials [8][10] Group 4 - The implementation of AI in education faces challenges, including the need for long-term commitment to teacher role transformation, the superficial application of technology, and the inadequacy of current evaluation systems [9][12] - There is a call for a collaborative effort among schools, parents, and the community to guide students in using AI responsibly and effectively [11][12] - Future plans include further integration of AI into educational practices to enhance student core competencies and overall educational quality [13][14]

Core Insights - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair concluded with significant achievements, including nearly 2,000 offline exhibitors, around 5,600 online exhibitors, over 250,000 attendees, and more than 900 agreements reached, showcasing China's commitment to high-level openness and quality development [1][10] Group 1: Event Overview - The fair served as a platform for global service cooperation, featuring nearly 800 international guests from over 30 countries, discussing mutual benefits in service trade [1][3] - Australia had the largest guest country exhibition, achieving 15 cooperation intentions in finance and education, highlighting its commitment to expanding in the Chinese market [3] - The event attracted participation from 85 countries and international organizations, with over 20% of offline exhibitors being international, covering the top 30 service trade nations [3] Group 2: Industry Innovations - The fair showcased numerous new products and services, including the world's first photon counting CT and various smart solutions, emphasizing the vitality of technology in service development [3][6] - A significant focus was placed on AI in education, with a strategic agreement signed for the application of AI education in Beijing's primary and secondary schools [4] - AstraZeneca established a large exhibition space to showcase its achievements in China and signed agreements to enhance the accessibility of innovative drugs and quality medical services [6] Group 3: Engagement and Experience - The event featured 27 promotional activities and 48 industry exchange events, with a 12% increase in professional attendees compared to the previous year, totaling approximately 116,000 [7] - The fair included interactive experiences such as robot demonstrations and digital platforms facilitating over 3,000 project matches, enhancing engagement with attendees [7][8] - A variety of cultural and sports activities were organized, creating an immersive experience for participants and promoting investment opportunities [8]

樊舒瑜 淄博报道 以下是《校长圆桌派》第六期实录(部分有删节): 主持人:2025年被誉为"智慧教育"元年。今年教育部提出2030年中小学普及AI教育的目标,请问马校长,您 是怎么理解AI教育的? 马明新:我认为人工智能对教育的变革正在重构从教学模式到教育生态的全链条,这种改变不仅是技术工 具的迭代,更是教育理念与育人范式的系统性升级。改变有五个方面: 首先是观念的转变,AI带来的变化,除了作为技术提高学习效率,改进学习方法,辅助教与学,更重要的或者 说更核心的是AI本身就是一个学科,一种素养；其次是学习方式的转变,AI技术在教学中能够个性化定制 学习方案,提升教学效率；再就是教学方式的转变,从传统的师生二元关系,演变为教师、AI与学生构成的 三元互动,要求教师从"知识传授者"到"学习引导者""任务设计者"过度,关注学生高阶思维培养；另外还 有评价方式的革新,AI技术的应用,使得教育评价更加多元、精准；最后是教育资源的均衡,AI能够整合优 质教育资源,打破地域限制,让偏远地区的学生也能享受到高质量的教学内容,实现教育公平。 主持人:作为一所坐落于区县的学校,我们了解到,淄博外国语实验学校的AI教育也走在全市前 ...

Core Insights - The rise of technology companies like DeepSeek and Yushu Technology in early 2025 highlights the importance of fostering an innovative culture to seize the historic opportunities presented by artificial intelligence [1][2] - The documentary-style investment program "Winning in AI+" has successfully engaged over 700 AI companies across multiple cities, showcasing the potential of AI integration and innovation [2][3] - The program serves as a platform for young innovators, providing them with comprehensive support from experts and industry leaders, thereby enhancing the acceleration of technological advancements in various sectors [2][3] Summary by Sections - **Program Overview** - "Winning in AI+" focuses on the cross-disciplinary integration of AI rather than just the technology itself, reflecting a forward-thinking approach to AI transformation [2] - The program has conducted over 10 roadshows, attracting participation from a wide range of AI enterprises, significantly broadening the understanding of AI applications [2] - **Impact on Innovators** - The program has selected 102 innovative entrepreneurs to participate in its recording and broadcasting, emphasizing the dynamic spirit of the current generation of AI innovators [2] - It aims to transform the audience from mere observers of technology into active co-creators within the industry, fostering a collaborative environment for innovation [3] - **Cultural Significance** - The initiative is seen as a cultural "nourishment" that deepens the roots of innovation in China, encouraging a vibrant ecosystem for AI development [3] - The density of talent is expected to accelerate technological innovation, with hopes for more cultural initiatives to support the growth of the AI industry [3]