本报告导读： 小鹏汽车 25Q2 毛利率创历史新高，净亏损同环比收窄。考虑到公司产品迭代加速， "一车双能"新车周期开启，智能化属性突出，维持"增持"评级。 25Q2 毛利率创历史新高，经营质量持续优化 ——小鹏汽车 2025 年二季度业绩点评 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 海 外 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 30676 | 40866 | 90863 | 130327 | 152663 | | (+/-)% | 14% | 33% | 122% | 43% | 17% | | 毛利润 | 451 | 5846 | 14992 | 22807 | 28395 | | 净利润 | -10376 | -5790 | -1001 | 3281 | 6758 | | (+/-)% | -14% | 44% | 83% | 428% | 106% | | PE | -8.75 | -14.03 | -140.9 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 风险提示： 新车订单/销量不及预期；毛利率爬坡不及预期；市场竞争加剧等。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 2Q25毛利率表现亮眼，ASP与毛利率有望逐季改善 1）2Q25小鹏汽车业务收入同比+147.6%/环比+17.5%至168.8亿元（ASP同环比-27.5%/+7.1%至16.4万元，交付 量同环比+241.6%/+9.8%至10.3万辆），汽车业务毛利率同比+7.9pcts/环比+3.8pcts至14.3%。2）2Q25 R&D费 用率同比-6.0pcts/环比-0.5pcts至12.1%，SG&A费用率同环比-7.5pcts/-0.4pcts至11.9%。3）截至2Q25，在手现金 等价物合计约475.7亿元。我们判断，2Q25公司毛利率表现亮眼，主要受益于Mona M ...

本报告导读： 25Q2 毛利率创历史新高，经营质量持续优化 小鹏汽车-W(9868) ——小鹏汽车 2025 年二季度业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | | | 张觉尹(分析师) | 021-23185705 | zhangjueyin@gtht.com | S0880525040057 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 80.45 | | 潘若婵(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | panruochan@gtht.com | S0880125042232 | | | 小鹏汽车 25Q2 毛利率创历史新高，净亏损同环比收窄。考虑到公司产品迭代加速， "一车双能"新车周期开启，智能化属性突出，维持"增持"评级。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 202 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.87% and the S&P 500 up 0.52% year-to-date performance remains strong for most indices, with the Hang Seng Index up 41.21% [1][2] - The Chinese A-share market saw gains, particularly in the pharmaceutical, banking, and non-ferrous sectors, while the computer, retail, and telecommunications sectors experienced declines [3] Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry reported robust sales in June for new energy vehicles, with Li Auto's deliveries down 11% month-on-month, while XPeng and NIO met expectations with significant year-on-year growth [5][6] - BYD maintained stable wholesale volumes in June, while Geely raised its annual sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting strong demand [6] - The heavy truck sector in China saw a 29% year-on-year increase in sales in June, driven by both diesel and new energy trucks, exceeding expectations [7] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 48% [8] - XPeng Motors (XPEV US) also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, suggesting a 53% upside [8] - NIO (not specified) is undergoing brand integration and personnel streamlining to reduce resource waste, although the effectiveness of these measures is uncertain [5]

Group 1 - Hong Kong stock indices experienced a decline, with the automotive sector facing significant losses, particularly for companies like Geely, BYD, and Xpeng, which fell over 3% in the afternoon session [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect automotive ETF (159323) saw a drop of nearly 2%, with major holdings such as Zhejiang Shibao, Youjia Innovation, Geely, BYD, Xpeng, and Zhixing Technology among the biggest decliners [1] - Everbright Securities noted that the commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with a turning point in scale approaching, and identified Xpeng as closely following Tesla's technology path, planning to launch Robotaxi by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect automotive ETF (159323) focuses heavily on the Hong Kong vehicle sector, with a leading proportion of passenger vehicles compared to similar indices, and includes relatively scarce new car-making forces in the A-share market [2] - As of June 25, the top five weighted stocks in the index are BYD, Xpeng, Li Auto, Geely, and Leap Motor, collectively accounting for 58.24% of the index [2] - The index also includes companies in the intelligent driving industry chain, such as Zhixing Technology, Horizon Robotics, Sunny Optical Technology, and Zhejiang Shibao, which aligns more closely with the trends in the automotive industry compared to A-share automotive theme indices [2]

业 及 产 业 汽车 2025 年 06 月 03 日 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W109） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 江淮汽车方面，尊界订单符合预期。江淮高端车型尊界 S800 于发布后一小时大定 1600 台，符合预期。该产品价格区间 70–100 万元，对应目标市场年销量 3–4 万台，预计公 司有望实现年销 1 万台左右。首批用户偏新锐尝鲜型，产品存在实际验证不足问题，部 分保守用户或选择观望。整体节奏或类比仰望 U8，依赖口碑发酵，销量爬坡节奏可能 较慢。S800 标志江淮品牌向上尝试，后续兑现路径值得跟踪。 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 (8621)23297818× zhufz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 点 评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 江淮汽车、蔚来、小鹏更新 ⚫ 蔚来方面，公司提出 2025 年 Q4 实现 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 为何我们建议All in汽车智能化？ 1）汽车智能化本质是一场出行革命。 【L3智能化帮助车企卖车】-【 L4Robotaxi实现车企软件 收费】-【自主品牌实现全球崛起】是汽车智能化三部曲。 2）2025年汽车智能化或是拐点之 年！ 城市NOA（L3智能化核心体验）普及是推动智能化成为消费者购车前三考虑因素的力 量。目前我们根据【引领车企新车周期—终端草根调研—爆款车型验证】体系将紧密跟踪【L3 智能化渗透率】2025-2027年从10%-50%-80%+的变化过程。 3）汽车智能化是淘汰赛模式，强 者恒强。 整车未来或分为三类公司： B端Robotaxi运营+ C端个性化品牌+整车高端制造。零部 件或分为两类公司：模块化供应商+单一品类供应商。 5月智能化总结：关键词或是价格战开启。 1）关于价格战：比亚迪经过4-5月份市场检验其智驾版本车型需求不及预期且非智驾版本库存 去化节奏较慢，5月23日比亚迪开启海洋网5月26日开启王朝网的降价宣传，以及吉利也采取了 跟进措施。2）关于智驾OTA：5月小鹏在mona03max上市同步开启天玑5.7.0升级。3）重要新 车：理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of XPeng Motors in Q1 2025 met expectations, with significant year-on-year revenue growth and a notable reduction in net losses [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, XPeng Motors reported total revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.8% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2 percentage points [2]. - Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 69.8% year-on-year and 69.4% quarter-on-quarter to 430 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Business Operations and Projections - The automotive business revenue reached 14.37 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with an average selling price (ASP) of 153,000 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 159.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.1% [3]. - The delivery volume increased significantly by 330.8% year-on-year and 2.7% quarter-on-quarter to 94,000 units [3]. - The company expects to see a gradual improvement in ASP and gross margin in Q2 2025, driven by new model launches and ongoing cost reductions [3]. Group 3: Product Development and Technological Advancements - XPeng Motors plans to deliver approximately 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, with key upcoming models including the Mona M03 Max and G7 [4]. - The company is focusing on software and hardware integration, with advancements in AI technology and self-developed chips expected to enhance product offerings and reduce costs [4]. - The introduction of the fourth-generation humanoid robot, IRON, is anticipated to create long-term growth potential, leveraging technology developed for the automotive sector [4].

公司研究 1Q25 业绩符合预期，持续看好技术兑现能力 ——小鹏汽车（XPEV.N）2025 年一季度业绩点评报告 2025 年 5 月 25 日 要点 1Q25 业绩符合预期：1Q25 小鹏汽车总收入同比+141.5%/环比-1.8%至 158.1 亿元（vs. 我们预期约 161.7 亿元），毛利率同比+2.7pcts/环比+1.2pcts 至 15.6%，Non-GAAP 归母净亏损同比收窄 69.8%/环比收窄 69.4%至 4.3 亿元（vs. 我们预期约 4.7 亿元）；1Q25 业绩表现总体符合我们的预期。 2025E ASP、毛利率有望逐季改善：1）1Q25 小鹏汽车业务收入同比+159.2%/ 环比-2.1%至 143.7 亿元（ASP 同环比-39.8%/-4.7%至 15.3 万元，交付量同环 比+330.8%/+2.7%至 9.4 万辆），汽车业务毛利率同比+5.0pcts/环比+0.5pcts 至 10.5%。2）1Q25 R&D 费用率同比-8.1pcts/环比+0.1pcts 至 12.5%，SG&A 费用率同环比-8.9pcts/-1.8pcts 至 12.3%。3）截至 1Q ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, driven by scale effects and effective cost control, with a revenue of 15.81 billion yuan and a Non-GAAP loss of 430 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 15.81 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP loss of 430 million yuan [1] - The gross margin improved to 15.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company delivered 94,008 vehicles in Q1, setting a new quarterly sales record [1] - Free cash flow turned positive in Q1, indicating improved financial health [1] Group 2: Product Strategy and Market Expansion - The company plans to launch several new models, including the Mona M03 Max on May 28, which features advanced smart driving capabilities [1] - Upcoming models include the G7 SUV in June and a new generation P7 luxury coupe in Q3, with plans for mass production of the Kunpeng super extended-range electric vehicle in Q4 [1] - The company aims to enhance average selling price (ASP) and profitability through competitive pricing and rich product configurations [1] Group 3: AI and Overseas Market Development - The company is developing a comprehensive AI ecosystem, with plans to launch the fifth-generation humanoid robot equipped with the Turing chip by 2026 [2] - In Q1, the company achieved over 370% year-on-year sales growth in overseas markets and opened over 40 new overseas stores [2] - The company plans to localize production for the Xiaopeng G6 and Xiaopeng X9 models in Indonesia by the second half of 2025, targeting a doubling of overseas sales for the year [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Current stock prices correspond to 1.6x P/S for Hong Kong shares and 1.8x P/S for US shares in 2025 [2] - The company maintains a target price of 108 HKD for Hong Kong shares and 28 USD for US shares, indicating potential upside of 39% and 26% respectively [2]