Group 1 - The core message emphasizes gratitude towards market participants and stakeholders for their support of China's financial futures market as 2026 approaches [1] - The year 2025 marks the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with China's economy showing signs of recovery and high-quality development being actively pursued [1] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) has strengthened risk prevention and regulatory measures, promoting a stable market environment and enhancing market resilience and vitality [1] Group 2 - The year 2026 will initiate the "15th Five-Year Plan," with CFFEX committed to implementing the guiding principles of Xi Jinping's thought and the decisions from various central economic and financial meetings [2] - CFFEX aims to enhance the quality of service to the real economy, focusing on risk prevention, regulatory strengthening, product development, and market openness [2] - The Securities Times plays a crucial role in the capital market by conveying policy messages and fostering market consensus, highlighting the importance of mainstream media in the financial sector [2]

Group 1 - The chief strategist of Guojin Securities, Miao Yiling, predicts that the ROE of the non-financial real estate sector in A-shares will increase from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" phase to a higher profitability rhythm [1] - Miao suggests four main investment lines: industrial resource products, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a focus on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the U.S. and Europe are experiencing characteristics such as "investment exceeding consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, with an increase in foreign tourists due to trade settlement rate recovery and visa-free entry, leading to improved net profit margins in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage [2] - Financially, there is a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" products, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their equity allocations; policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage will resonate with the non-bank sector and ROE recovery [2]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the equity market in 2025 was strong, with technology stocks, particularly those related to computing power, showing significant gains and becoming a key factor in fund investments [1] - In 2026, the impact of prices on nominal growth is expected to decrease, leading to a more certain recovery in China's nominal economic growth [1] - Domestic consumption of goods in China is at a reasonable level, but the proportion of service consumption is notably lower than the global average, indicating potential for growth in this area [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the equity market in 2026 suggests that overall opportunities outweigh risks, despite some overheating in certain sectors of AI-related technology stocks [2] - The AI industry is entering a critical growth phase, with China's engineer advantage expected to accelerate the development of the domestic AI sector, leading to many companies entering a rapid growth period [2] - Domestic consumption-related stocks have shown average performance recently, but many quality consumer stocks have dividend yields in an attractive range, indicating potential for upward movement [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2026, driven by a stable yet progressive economic policy and positive changes in both internal and external economic environments [1] - The structure of domestic demand is anticipated to undergo significant changes, with a reduced impact from real estate and an increased emphasis on consumption, particularly in "investing in people" as a key direction for expanding domestic demand [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to alleviate the supply-demand imbalance, promoting a recovery in corporate profits and improvement in profit margins [1] Group 2 - The market is projected to shift from the extreme conditions of 2025 to a more balanced state in 2026, with the past two years characterized by liquidity chasing scarce assets [1] - In the context of a dual easing fiscal and monetary environment, the Chinese yuan is expected to stabilize and recover in the short term, marking the beginning of value allocation and valuation recovery for Chinese assets [1] - Despite increased volatility in the US stock market, the long-term development trend of AI is accelerating, with significant focus on the commercialization of intelligent agents and investment opportunities in the broader technology sector remaining a key theme for 2026 [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market's decline in Q4 2025 was primarily influenced by liquidity contraction, but current valuations are considered to have high cost-effectiveness [2] - As an offshore market, Hong Kong stocks tend to exhibit greater resilience during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with internet assets possessing both technology and cyclical attributes suitable for left-side positioning [2] - The long-term outlook for the equity market remains optimistic, with a recommendation for balanced investment strategies that consider individual risk preferences, highlighting structural opportunities in cyclical resources, export chains, and core assets alongside technology growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The chief A-share strategist of CITIC Securities, Qiu Xiang, predicts that the profit growth rate of A-share companies will show a trend of low-to-high from 2026 onwards, influenced by the dynamics of the China-US relationship [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The market is expected to be divided into three phases based on the China-US trade agreement and the US midterm elections: 1. The first phase is from now until the trade agreement is finalized, where the market's upward slope is expected to slow down 2. The second phase is from the agreement's implementation to the end of the US midterm elections, during which A-shares may experience sustained growth in a stable external environment 3. The third phase follows the midterm elections, where external uncertainties may increase sharply, prompting investors to refocus on domestic issues [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Sector Allocation - Four major themes are highlighted for investment opportunities: 1. The manufacturing sector's competition for global pricing power, with a focus on industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, which can convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin increases 2. The globalization of Chinese enterprises, which significantly expands market capitalization and profit growth potential, with key industries including machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and military industry 3. The continuation of the technology trend, particularly in AI, which further expands commercial applications and enhances the competitive advantages of Chinese companies, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, computing power, edge hardware, and AI applications 4. The potential for unexpected recovery in domestic demand, where despite general industry conditions being average, there exists significant room for recovery and valuation elasticity in domestic demand-sensitive sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the restructuring of international order and China's industrial innovation will support A-share performance in 2026, with a market trend of initial growth followed by stability [1] - The market is expected to see increased volatility and valuation uplift, with a focus on sectors that align with fundamental performance [1] - Three main investment themes are identified: 1) Growth sectors such as AI, which is entering an application phase, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, particularly in domestic markets; application areas include robotics, consumer electronics, intelligent driving, and software applications [1] 2) External demand breakout, focusing on sectors like home appliances, construction machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and globally priced resources like non-ferrous metals [1] 3) Cyclical reversal, with attention to sectors nearing improvement in supply-demand dynamics or receiving policy support, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation for capital market policies to further promote a "long-term" and "steady" market environment, which could enhance capital market openness in the context of international monetary system restructuring and global capital reallocation [2] - The company aims to support financing for innovative enterprises and improve market inclusivity while optimizing mechanisms for long-term capital entry, thereby increasing market stability and resilience [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market profitability is expected to continue recovering by 2026, with liquidity remaining loose, shifting the core market driver from valuation to profitability [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditional growth momentum and emerging industries are expected to work in tandem, leading to improved competition in traditional sectors and a rebound in domestic inflation levels [1] - Fiscal policies are anticipated to create new demand in the domestic market, while the resonance of domestic and international technology industries will accelerate capital inflow into emerging sectors [1] Group 2: Industry Structure - The technology sector is projected to maintain high profit growth due to expanding capital expenditures in artificial intelligence, although the valuation gap between the tech industry and the overall market has widened, making further valuation increases challenging [1] - Traditional sectors such as consumption, cyclical, and manufacturing industries are expected to see gradual profit growth recovery, with certain supply-demand balanced industries showing significant profit elasticity [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is increasing market and policy focus on new productive forces, with expectations that more emerging industries will be influenced by domestic policies in 2026, creating additional investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chief strategist of Industrial Securities, Zhang Qiyao, indicates that the recovery of fundamentals is expected to support further market growth by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - By analyzing the performance of listed companies in the first three quarters of 2025, it is observed that revenue has stabilized, but gross margins are still declining, indicating that pricing remains a major drag on profitability [1] - Since the second half of 2025, policies promoting "de-involution" have led to a rebound in prices in resource sectors, which has contributed to an improvement in gross margins [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - For 2026, nominal economic recovery and price increases are expected to be the most evident trends in the market [1] - According to the latest IMF forecast, China's nominal GDP growth rate in USD terms is projected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, with continued improvement in listed company profits [1] - The ongoing global liquidity easing is likely to result in a sustained upward trend in the A-share market in 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Configuration - The market is currently in a structural recovery phase in 2025, with significant differentiation in industry prosperity, leading to a focus on eliminating weaker sectors [1] - As more industries enter the profitability recovery phase in 2026, the market allocation logic may shift from internal competition within sectors to identifying superior industries [1] - Key areas of focus for investment include trends in the AI industry, the "price increase chain," the "overseas expansion chain," and the structural recovery of domestic demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global debt issue will present three main solutions: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures despite ongoing weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] - The net asset return on equity (ROE) for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market has stabilized over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries now accounting for 38% of total profits [1] - Companies with overseas operations have seen their overseas revenue share increase to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive a rebound in overall A-share ROE after stabilization [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Investment focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other sectors to consider include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]

申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛表示，2025年是典型的"结构牛"，2026年下半年则有望迎 来"全面牛"。 傅静涛提出，A股牛市行情遵循"两段论"规律：2013年迎来结构牛，随后就是2015年的全面牛；2016— 2017年迎来结构牛，随后就是2020—2021年的全面牛。在结构牛阶段，机构对核心板块的持仓与估值同 步触及首轮高位，叠加机构赚钱效应完成从量变到质变的积累。进入全面牛阶段，核心产业趋势进一步 升级，基本面改善的领域持续扩容，再与增量资金形成正向循环，最终使得估值提升到历史高位的赛道 明显增加。 傅静涛认为，2026年下半年可能迎来"全面牛"。基本面周期性改善、科技产业趋势新阶段演绎以及增量 资金流入正循环，构成全面牛的基本盘。A股将拥抱全球"竞争思维"，中国外循环从"跟跑"到"领跑"， 外循环取得突破，打开了中国发展转型空间。 他表示，2026年牛市的领涨主线，将聚焦在三大方向：AI产业趋势从算力向应用延伸，机器人产业实 现突破，储能、光伏领域等中国先进制造重估。顺周期与价值板块，大概率在2026年上半年的市场休整 阶段占相对优势，其中，周期领域的超额收益可重点关注基础化工、工业金属赛道。 ...