Core Viewpoint - The potential for Europe to leverage its over $10 trillion in U.S. assets amid Trump's tariff threats has become a significant market concern [1][2]. Group 1: European Assets and Market Reactions - The majority of U.S. assets held by Europe are owned by private funds, making it challenging for European governments to control or force the sale of these assets [2][3]. - If Europe were to weaponize its U.S. assets, it would escalate the trade conflict into a financial confrontation, impacting capital markets directly [2][3]. - Following the announcement of tariffs, market tensions have already emerged, with U.S. stock futures, European markets, and the dollar under pressure, while gold and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and euro have benefited [2]. Group 2: Challenges of Asset Weaponization - The European Union faces significant obstacles in attempting to force private investors to sell U.S. assets, as the primary focus of sovereign wealth funds is on commercial and risk factors rather than political considerations [4]. - A large-scale strategic sell-off of U.S. assets would likely result in a "negative-sum game," harming both the European investors and the broader market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of European policymakers taking extreme measures against U.S. assets is low, as it could damage their own investment interests [4]. Group 3: Possible European Responses - Goldman Sachs outlines three potential response pathways for the EU: postponing the EU-U.S. trade agreement, imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth €93 billion ($108 billion), or utilizing the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) [5][6][8]. - The ACI allows the EU to implement a range of non-tariff countermeasures, including investment restrictions and taxation on foreign assets, indicating a shift from traditional tariff responses [8][10]. - Initiating the ACI does not mean immediate implementation of countermeasures, but it signals a strategic shift in the EU's approach to economic coercion [10].

中国AI六小龙之一的月之暗面正在进行新一轮融资。 1月19日，据CNBC援引知情人士透露，中国人工智能初创公司月之暗面（Moonshot AI）在新一轮融资中估值达到48亿美元，较其 一个月前的估值水平跃升了5亿美元。 报道援引知情人士表示，看到对标公司在港股的亮眼表现，投资者迅速重估了Kimi的价值。由于认购需求强烈，本轮融资预计将 很快关闭。 他们补充称，鉴于市场对潜在中国AI上市公司的兴趣激增，该公司在后续轮次中的估值可能进一步攀升。 尽管竞争对手已先行一步叩响资本市场大门，但创始人杨植麟却展现出了极强的战略定力。在最近的AI行业峰会及内部交流中，他 明确表示：月之暗面目前并不急于推进IPO进程。 杨植麟此前透露，公司目前持有超过100亿人民币的充足现金储备，这让月之暗面有资本在长跑中保持自己的节奏。 推动估值跳升的直接催化剂，来自其同行的公开市场表现。今年早些时候，中国AI公司智谱AI与MiniMax在香港上市后股价强劲上 涨。 （MiniMax累涨近10%，智谱则飙涨70%） 分析认为，随着中国本土AI公司上市路径被验证，国际与本土风险资本正竞相在下一批企业IPO前锁定投资席位，推高了头部标的 的估 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the surge in demand driven by artificial intelligence, South Korea's major memory chip manufacturers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, will continue to cut NAND flash production this year, which is expected to drive up NAND prices across various sectors, enhancing profit margins comparable to DRAM [1][4]. Group 1: Production and Market Strategy - Samsung's NAND wafer production is projected to decrease from 4.9 million units last year to 4.68 million units this year, even below the reduction level planned for 2024 due to declining profitability [1]. - SK Hynix's NAND production is expected to drop from approximately 1.9 million units last year to 1.7 million units this year [1]. - Both companies together hold over 60% of the global NAND flash market share, and their production cuts are occurring amid intensified competition in AI-driven applications [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Bonuses - The global storage chip supercycle driven by AI has resulted in historic profits, prompting Samsung and SK Hynix to issue their largest performance bonuses in years [2][5]. - Samsung's semiconductor division has confirmed that eligible employees will receive bonuses equivalent to 47% of their base annual salary, a stark contrast to the zero bonus rate in 2023 due to market downturns [6]. - SK Hynix has adopted a more aggressive bonus strategy, eliminating the long-standing cap on bonuses and allocating 10% of operating profits for profit-sharing, with average bonuses expected to exceed 140 million KRW, marking a historical high [6]. Group 3: Price Expectations and Market Dynamics - Major market research firms anticipate a comprehensive increase in NAND prices starting from Q1 this year, with TrendForce projecting a contract price increase of 33% to 38% compared to the previous quarter [4]. - IDC forecasts a 17% growth rate in NAND supply this year, which is below the average levels seen in recent years [4]. - Analysts suggest that the supply control by Samsung and SK Hynix may exacerbate shortages in AI servers, mobile devices, and PCs, as both companies focus on maximizing profits during this storage chip supercycle [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Google's Gemini AI model sales have experienced explosive growth over the past year, driven by improved model quality and increased API call requests [1] - The number of API calls for Gemini increased from approximately 35 billion at the launch of Gemini 2.5 in March last year to about 85 billion in August, more than doubling [1] - The release of Gemini 3 in November has sparked renewed interest and received widespread acclaim, contributing to the growth in both quantity and quality of the models [1] Group 2 - Despite positive business data, the market remains concerned about the high capital expenditure, with Google projecting capital expenditures between $91 billion and $93 billion, nearly double the $52.5 billion expected for 2024 [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Q4 financial report for signs of returns on these substantial investments [3] Group 3 - Google is attempting to enhance profit margins through Gemini Enterprise, which currently has 8 million subscribers from 1,500 companies and over 1 million online registered users [4] - Market feedback on Gemini Enterprise is polarized, with customer satisfaction split nearly 50/50, indicating mixed reactions to the product [4] - Challenges arise from Google's "developer-first" approach, leading many customers to prefer building custom agents using Gemini models rather than purchasing pre-packaged software [4] - While Gemini Enterprise excels in answering general questions based on enterprise data, it struggles with specific tasks, though customers are willing to continue using it with a "let's give it a try" attitude [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in bond yields in Japan and the United States, indicating a shift in fiscal policy and market conditions [1] Group 2 - Japan's 10-year government bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 2.3%, the highest level since February 1999 [1] - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bond reached 4%, marking the first time since its issuance in 2007 [1] - The announcement by Japanese politician Hiromu Kato regarding the House of Representatives election on February 8 signals an end to overly tight fiscal policies [1] Group 3 - In the United States, the 30-year government bond yield rose by 3.8 basis points to 4.879%, the highest since early September of the previous year [1] - The 10-year government bond yield in the U.S. increased to 4.259%, also the highest since early September of the previous year [1]

据华尔街日报，这些波动幅度远低于灾难性事件应有的市场反应——自1964年以来，标普500平均每年 出现21次类似跌幅，黄金期货自1979年以来平均每年有15次类似涨幅，也就是说市场并未出现恐慌情 绪。 分析认为，这一地缘政治僵局可能遵循特朗普常用的"先升级事态，再降级"（escalate to de-escalate） 的剧本。高盛Delta-One部门负责人Rich Privorotsky指出，其基准情形是特朗普将在最后一刻达成妥协。 他指出，这一立场在国内并不受欢迎，民调显示仅17%的美国人支持收购格陵兰的努力，且民主党和共 和党选民中绝大多数反对使用武力吞并该岛。 市场反应背后的四重逻辑 面对美国总统特朗普以关税为筹码强购格陵兰岛的威胁，全球市场虽然呈现避险情绪，但反应相对克 制。分析认为，这不过是特朗普惯用的"极限施压"谈判策略，最终双方将达成某种形式的妥协。 周末特朗普威胁对英国、法国、德国等多个欧洲国家加征关税，以迫使丹麦交出格陵兰。隔夜美股休 市，标普500指数期货下跌略超1%，欧洲股市跌幅相近，黄金上涨不到2%。 这一事件发生的时间点也耐人寻味，正值达沃斯论坛举行周。Privorotsky认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is developing a blockchain-based "tokenized securities" trading platform aimed at enabling 24/7 trading of stocks, which marks a significant shift from traditional trading hours [1]. Group 1: Trading Mechanism and Settlement - The new platform will provide 24/7 trading services, addressing the time zone barriers faced by investors [2]. - It will utilize blockchain technology for instant settlement, moving away from the traditional T+1 settlement system, which delays the completion of transactions until the next business day [2]. - Instant settlement is expected to reduce systemic risks and prevent market interruptions caused by liquidity crises, as seen in the GameStop incident [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - NYSE's initiative reflects a broader trend among Wall Street giants to adopt blockchain technology, with competitors like Nasdaq already seeking approval for trading tokenized stocks [3]. - Major financial institutions such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and BNY Mellon have launched tokenized money market fund projects, indicating a growing interest in tokenization within traditional finance [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - While the technological prospects are promising, there are concerns regarding compliance and potential fraud risks associated with blockchain technology [5]. - If approved, NYSE's platform could provide a regulated channel for blue-chip companies to issue tokenized securities, addressing previous issues related to pricing discrepancies and security in offshore tokenized stocks [5]. - NYSE is in contact with the SEC regarding the approval process, which will be crucial for the project's success [5].

Core Viewpoint - The focus of investors has shifted from D.R. Horton's quarterly performance to forward-looking issues such as changes in demand following a decline in mortgage rates and the potential impact of housing policy adjustments under the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts expect D.R. Horton's Q1 earnings per share to be $1.93, with revenue around $6.6 billion, a significant decline from $2.61 per share and $7.6 billion in the same period last year [1] - The company's gross margin is projected to drop from 22.7% in the previous year to 20.1% this quarter, indicating pressure on profitability due to the housing affordability crisis [2] Group 2: Demand and Market Signals - Early signs of improvement in housing demand are emerging, with an increase in mortgage applications reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association [3] - The interest from homebuyers has reportedly increased earlier than in previous years, coinciding with Trump's announcement to direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage-backed securities to lower rates [3] Group 3: Policy Uncertainty and Industry Impact - The Trump administration's housing policy changes introduce complexity to the industry outlook, with discussions around a "carrot and stick" approach that may reward or penalize builders based on compliance with government housing goals [4] - Analysts note that while lower mortgage rates could benefit builders by reducing repurchase costs, there is pressure to prioritize entry-level housing sales over profitability, which could negatively impact gross margins [4] Group 4: Future Guidance and Orders - Analysts forecast D.R. Horton's second-quarter profit margin to be 20.2%, with new orders expected to reach 24,240 units [5] - The company's management's guidance on orders and profit margins, along with interpretations of policy changes, will be critical for assessing the industry's direction [5]

Group 1: New World Order and Global Bull Market - The chief investment strategist at Bank of America, Hartnett, believes that Trump is driving global fiscal expansion, leading to a "New World Order = New World Bull Market" scenario [1][2] - Hartnett suggests going long on international stocks as the market is shifting from U.S. exceptionalism to global rebalancing, with $1.6 trillion flowing into U.S. stock funds in the 2020s compared to only $0.4 trillion into global funds [2] - China is identified as the most promising market, with the end of deflation expected to catalyze bull markets in Japan and Europe [2] Group 2: Gold Bull Market - Hartnett emphasizes that the New World Order is not only fostering a stock bull market but also a gold bull market, despite short-term overbought conditions [3] - Gold was the best-performing asset in 2020, driven by factors such as war, populism, the end of globalization, excessive fiscal expansion, and debt devaluation [4] - The Federal Reserve and Trump’s administration are expected to increase quantitative easing liquidity by $600 billion through the purchase of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities by 2026 [5] - Gold has outperformed bonds and U.S. stocks over the past four years, and a higher allocation to gold remains reasonable, with historical bull markets averaging a 300% increase [6][7] Group 3: Economic Recovery Assets - In addition to gold, other assets are expected to benefit from the New World Bull Market, including mid-cap and small-cap stocks, homebuilders, retail, and transportation sectors [10] - Hartnett advises going long on "economic recovery" related assets while shorting large tech stocks until certain conditions are met, such as the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 5% [11] - Historical precedent shows that Nixon's price and wage freeze improved living costs and boosted his approval ratings, suggesting that if Trump fails to improve his ratings, risks for midterm elections will increase [15] Group 4: Risks from East Asian Currency Appreciation - The biggest risk identified is the rapid appreciation of the yen, won, and new Taiwan dollar, which could trigger global liquidity tightening [1][16] - The yen is currently trading near 160, at its weakest level against the yuan since 1992, and a rapid appreciation could reverse capital flows from Asia [16] - Hartnett warns that investors should closely monitor indicators like the "yen up, MOVE index up" risk aversion combination to determine when to exit the market [16]

库克否认指控，且至今未被起诉。她随即提起诉讼以保住职位。最高法院在去年十月下达临时命令，允 许她留任直至案件审结。 华尔街见闻提及，上周鲍威尔对外披露，特朗普政府已向美联储发出传票，甚至威胁对他本人提出刑事 指控。 据多家媒体报道，1月21日周三，鲍威尔将出席美国最高法院关于美联储理事Lisa Cook案件的口头辩 论。 华尔街见闻提及，瑞银在16日的报告中直言，这场审判关乎美联储独立性的生死存亡。如果法院裁决允 许白宫"因故"绕过《联邦储备法》罢免理事Lisa Cook，那么鲍威尔被解职的法律大门将被彻底踢开。 此前司法部向美联储及鲍威尔发出了大陪审团传票，调查其在美联储办公楼装修项目管理及国会证词中 是否涉嫌误导。 鲍威尔的主席任期将于2026年5月15日结束，但其理事任期将持续至2028年1月31日。 特朗普与美联储公开的"白刃战" 一切源于去年八月。 特朗普公开宣称，要解雇由拜登任命的美联储理事丽莎·库克，理由是她涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。 美联储主席鲍威尔将现身丽莎库克（Lisa Cook）案的口头辩论，这是一次罕见的公开站队。 鲍威尔坐在那里，意味着他说不。 瑞银分析认为，如果政府坚持对鲍威尔刑事起诉，且 ...