市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 路透援引消息人士报道，日本央行下周或将维持加息承诺，加息步伐将取决于经济对每次加息的反应。 日本央行或不会发布关于中性利率的最新预估，也不会将其作为加息时机的主要沟通工具。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Insights - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for AI technology validation, shifting market focus from capital expenditure to practical utility and commercialization returns [1] - The report by Goldman Sachs indicates that the adoption of general large language models (LLMs) and chatbots will significantly increase in 2025, marking a turning point in consumer computing [2] Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Investment Trends - Despite concerns over "overbuilding," Goldman Sachs expects AI-related capital expenditures to remain high in 2026, with capital spending expectations for Amazon, Google, and META raised by approximately 46% and 80% for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, totaling an increase of about $250 billion [2] - The ability of these substantial investments in AI development to translate into visible profit returns will be a key factor influencing investor sentiment and company performance over the next 12 to 18 months [2] Group 2: Evolution of Consumer AI Landscape - The discussion around AI is shifting from infrastructure to application, with 2026 potentially being a critical point for changes in consumer computing habits, focusing on diverse monetization models beyond paid subscriptions [2] - The integration of "agentic AI" that can plan multi-step processes and make autonomous decisions is expected to blur the lines between search and applications, significantly impacting consumer behavior [2] Group 3: Advertising and E-commerce Dynamics - The boundaries between traditional advertising and e-commerce are dissolving, with social platforms enhancing user experiences and logistics partnerships to accelerate social commerce [3] - Amazon's advertising business is projected to maintain an annual compound growth rate of about 8% from 2025 to 2030, with the creator economy playing a crucial role in driving traffic and conversions [3] Group 4: AI's Impact on Advertising Landscape - Digital advertising is currently the most mature vertical for AI product development and adoption, with platforms like Google's Performance Max and META's Advantage+ leading in AI automation tools [5] - AI is expected to redistribute profit pools within the advertising industry, with large platforms benefiting from their data and computational advantages [6] Group 5: Local Business Competition Dynamics - On-demand delivery platforms like UBER, DASH, and CART are expanding product categories to improve user retention and engagement, particularly in grocery and retail sectors with low online penetration [8] - Cross-platform consumer retention rates are higher, with spending three times that of single-use consumers, leading to intensified competition in delivery speed [9] Group 6: Future of Mobility Networks - Discussions around autonomous vehicles (AVs) focus on partnerships, urban expansion, and market share, with large-scale adoption expected over the next 5-7 years [10] - Waymo is expanding its operations as a leading AV operator in the U.S., with costs expected to decrease as dedicated hardware scales, enhancing affordability and penetration in shared mobility [10] Group 7: Evolution of Interactive Entertainment - Interactive entertainment companies are increasing consumer touchpoints by expanding into new media and verticals, with trends including the integration of live entertainment and AI to enhance content development efficiency [11] Group 8: Transition to Spatial Computing - Major companies like META, Google, and Apple are investing in spatial computing, transitioning from mobile devices to more immersive interaction methods, with advancements in hardware, software, and connectivity being crucial [12][13] Group 9: Health and Wellness Market Opportunities - Post-pandemic, consumer focus on health outcomes has increased, with a trend towards the integration of hardware and software in health tracking, driving downloads and subscriptions for related applications [14] Group 10: Balancing Growth and Incremental Investment - Companies are showing a divergence in balancing growth investments with profit margins, with some prioritizing long-term growth plans over short-term profit maximization [15]

随着欧洲央行决策者愈发坚定地认为当前货币政策处于"良好位置"，市场情绪出现显著逆转，交易员已 开始通过定价反映该行在2026年重启加息的可能性，这与此前普遍的降息预期形成鲜明对比。 下周四的欧洲央行会议将成为市场验证这一逻辑的关键节点。据路透12日报道，尽管市场普遍预计欧洲 央行将连续第四次将关键利率维持在2%不变，但投资者关注的焦点已从降息转向未来的紧缩路径。据 彭博的一项调查，超过60%的受访经济学家现在预测欧央行的下一次利率调整将是向上的，而此前持有 这一观点的比例仅为三分之一。 与此同时，大西洋彼岸的美联储刚刚宣布降息25个基点。据华尔街见闻此前文章，高盛及华尔街多家投 行警告称，这种政策分化——美联储"向左"宽松，欧央行"向右"紧缩——预计将在2026年前后通过汇率 市场显现关键影响。由于其他央行维持紧缩倾向，美元面临的贬值压力正成为市场焦点，这可能导致欧 元被动升值，进而成为影响欧洲央行未来决策的外部变量。 投资者正密切关注下周会议释放的信号，以寻找是否有理由维持加息押注。路透指出，除利率决议外， 本次会议还面临关于通胀预测、政策路径、地缘政治影响及人事变动等五大关键问题。 关于明年及更长远的政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite not raising the full-year guidance for fiscal year 2026 as some investors expected, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a "Buy" rating for Broadcom, citing the company's strengthening dominance in the custom chip sector and robust fundamentals in its AI business [1][2]. Financial Performance - Broadcom reported a strong fourth-quarter revenue of $18 billion, exceeding market expectations of $17.5 billion. The guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 is set at $19.1 billion, significantly above the analyst forecast of $18.3 billion. This growth is primarily driven by a 74% year-over-year increase in AI semiconductor revenue [1][5]. - The AI semiconductor revenue reached $6.5 billion, surpassing the expected $6.2 billion, while total semiconductor solutions revenue was $11.1 billion, above the anticipated $10.7 billion. Infrastructure software revenue was $6.9 billion, slightly exceeding expectations [5]. Market Reaction and Guidance - The market's reaction to the earnings report may be mixed, as there is disappointment over the lack of an updated full-year guidance for fiscal year 2026. Analysts noted that the absence of an upward revision could lead to short-term stock price pressure [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs' analysts predict that Broadcom's AI revenue growth for fiscal year 2026 will actually exceed 100%, despite management's conservative stance not reflecting the actual business momentum [3]. Customer Expansion and Orders - Broadcom has made significant progress in customer expansion, maintaining strong momentum with its largest client, Google, and announcing a new major customer. The company has secured a fifth XPU customer and received an additional $11 billion order from Anthropic for fiscal year 2026 [4]. - The backlog of AI orders has reached $73 billion for the next 18 months, indicating strong demand, with additional orders expected to increase this figure [4]. Profitability Trends - Broadcom's gross margin for the fourth quarter was 77.9%, slightly above market expectations. The adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 is set at 67% [5]. - Goldman Sachs noted that as Broadcom begins delivering full-rack solutions to Anthropic and potentially OpenAI in the second half of fiscal year 2026, there may be some dilution in gross and operating margins due to a higher proportion of direct components in these solutions [5]. Valuation Logic - Goldman Sachs raised Broadcom's 12-month price target from $435 to $450, based on an increase in AI revenue expectations and improved visibility into industry cycles. The estimated EPS was adjusted from $11.50 to $12.00, maintaining a 38x P/E multiple [2][7].

Core Viewpoint - Ciena reported strong quarterly results with revenue and profit exceeding market expectations, achieving a record revenue of $1.35 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, and provided positive guidance for future performance [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Ciena's fourth-quarter revenue reached $1.35 billion, marking a 20% increase year-over-year, while annual revenue was $4.77 billion, also a record high [6][17]. - The company achieved a record order intake of $7.8 billion for the year, resulting in a backlog of approximately $5 billion, which supports revenue expectations for fiscal year 2026 [18]. - Adjusted gross margin for the fourth quarter was 43.4%, exceeding previous expectations by 90 basis points, driven by revenue growth and an increase in software business [18]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Demand from cloud service providers is accelerating, with significant orders contributing to a growing backlog across all product lines [4][7]. - The company anticipates that the revenue for fiscal year 2026 will be between $5.7 billion and $6.1 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 24% [4][19]. - Ciena's market share in the optical fiber segment has increased by 2 percentage points this year, with expectations for further growth in 2026 [8]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Ciena is focusing on the production ramp-up of 800G pluggable modules, which is expected to lower unit costs over time as production scales [4][37]. - The company is actively investing in its product portfolio to capture the growing market segment, particularly in interconnect products and AI-driven applications [12][13]. - Ciena's partnerships with major cloud service providers are strengthening, as they recognize the need for network expansion to support AI workloads [7][50]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects operating profit margins to improve to around 17% for fiscal year 2026, with capital expenditures projected between $250 million and $275 million [21][20]. - Ciena is confident in the sustainability of demand, with expectations that the momentum will continue into 2027 and beyond [18][19]. - The anticipated revenue growth is supported by ongoing investments and strategic partnerships, positioning Ciena favorably in the AI-driven market landscape [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Costco's first-quarter performance exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by online sales growth and new store openings, with revenue increasing by 8.2% year-over-year [1][5]. Revenue Growth - The company reported first-quarter revenue of $67.31 billion, an 8.2% increase compared to the previous year, surpassing Wall Street forecasts [5][7]. - Comparable sales growth was 6.4%, with the U.S. market contributing 5.9%, indicating a focus on value rather than a significant increase in consumer spending power [6]. Profitability - Quarterly profit growth exceeded expectations, with net income reaching $2 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase [7]. - Earnings per share were reported at $4.50, also above Wall Street estimates [7]. E-commerce Performance - E-commerce sales surged by 20.5%, with website traffic increasing by 24% and app traffic skyrocketing by 48%, indicating successful online transformation [7][8]. - Black Friday saw record non-food orders exceeding $250 million, showcasing strong performance during the holiday shopping season [10]. Membership Expansion - Paid membership increased to 81.4 million, a 5.2% year-over-year rise, with a renewal rate of 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada [7][10]. - Membership fee increases implemented in September began contributing to profits [6][7]. Store Expansion Plans - The company opened 8 new warehouse stores in the first quarter, bringing the global total to 921, with plans to open over 30 new stores annually [7][16]. - This aggressive expansion strategy is seen as essential for maintaining growth in a cautious retail environment [16]. Cost Management and Challenges - Approximately one-third of U.S. sales come from imported goods, leading to challenges due to rising tariffs [11]. - The company is actively seeking ways to mitigate tariff impacts, including increasing domestic sourcing and adjusting product categories [11][12]. - The CEO emphasized the importance of the Kirkland Signature private label in managing supply chain costs [12].

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议在部署明年的经济工作中，对房地产提出具体要求。相比去年，这一次房 地产工作仍被放在"化解重点领域风险"之列，字数不多，但政策目标、方向、工具都有新变化。 一、 政策目标有变化。去年提的目标是"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，这一次则提出"着力稳定房地 产市场"，从"推动止跌"变为"着力稳定"，凸显政策决心，意味着政策核心趋向如何巩固住"稳"的态 势。 二、政策方向有变化。去年强调的是"合理控制新增用地""推进处置存量商品房"等，这一次则首 次明确将"控增量、去库存、优供给"并列作为核心方向，其中"优供给"是第一次出现的新词汇，意味着 明年的政策是一套协同发力的"组合拳"，各地供地前要考虑好库存的问题，去库存的同时还要把"民生 保障"也考虑进来，同时还要优化供地市场的结构。 三、政策工具有变化。这一次，公积金改革与"好 房子"建设首次明确成为明年的政策新抓手。 四、"城市更新"这个词的位 ...

随着旗下芯片子公司昆仑芯分拆上市预期的升温，百度正重获华尔街青睐。 分析师认为，这一半导体业务的崛起不仅有助于释放百度潜在价值，更使这家中国互联网搜索领军企业 有望通过芯片战略，复刻Alphabet在人工智能领域的逆袭路径。 市场观点正在发生根本性转变。麦格理分析师Ellie Jiang在12月5日的报告中指出，投资者此前在很大程 度上忽视了百度从芯片、云架构到模型及应用层面的垂直整合进展，而最新的渠道调研显示，得益于应 用层推理需求的爆发，国内芯片市场正迎来激增。尽管广告业务仍面临宏观经济放缓的压力，但日益增 长的AI相关业务贡献正促使投资者重新审视百度的估值逻辑。 这一转变发生在AI竞争加剧的背景下。随着英伟达顶级处理器获取渠道的不确定性持续存在，百度凭 借昆仑芯的高效推理能力，不仅在云端提供了具有竞争力的替代方案，也正在重塑其在科技自立浪潮中 的市场地位。 估值重构：非广告业务成主导因素 华尔街分析师普遍认为，百度的估值体系正在从单一的互联网广告模式向硬科技资产切换。 Arete Research Asia Ltd.分析师Shawn Yang指出，包括芯片和自动驾驶在内的非广告业务，有望成为决 定百度估 ...

美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，旨在推翻各州的人工智能法律，以建立统一的美国联邦标准。 周四美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，允许美国司法部成立法律工作组审查美国各州的AI法律，并可能 对不符合要求的州扣留联邦资金。特朗普在白宫办公室强调，美国必须统一行动。 特朗普表示，从事人工智能工作的人员或公司在美国设立业务不应遇到障碍。他说： 如果他们必须从50个不同的州获得50个不同的批准，那就算了，因为这是不可能做到的。 目前美国各州已提出超过1000项人工智能法案。此前美国硅谷高管们一直在游说特朗普禁止各州制定人 工智能法律，他们认为这些法律可能导致美国在人工智能竞赛中落败。 不过该命令已引发美国共和党内部分歧，部分保守派人士认为此举削弱了各州监管AI和保护消费者的 能力。民主党人则批评这一命令将扼杀各州的安全改革，为AI公司创造"无法无天的狂野西部环境"。 白宫AI事务负责人David Sacks周四表示，政府计划保留保护儿童安全的法律，但会针对某些被认为过 于繁琐的州法规采取行动。 共和党内部出现分歧 该命令正在考验MAGA保守派的忠诚度，包括特朗普的前策略师Steve Bannon和参议员Josh Hawley。 他 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant surge in the stock prices of power equipment companies, driven by concerns over electricity shortages impacting AI development, particularly for companies utilizing NVIDIA's power-hungry AI server chips [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Reaction - On December 12, shares of power equipment companies experienced notable increases, with China XD Electric hitting the daily limit, and New Special Electric rising over 10% [1]. - Other companies such as Moen Electric, Shuangjie Electric, Baobian Electric, and TBEA also saw their stock prices rise in response to the news [1]. Group 2: NVIDIA's Initiative - NVIDIA is planning a closed-door summit at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California, to address the "data center power shortage" that could hinder AI development [1][2]. - The summit will gather executives from startups focused on power and electrical engineering, indicating NVIDIA's strategy extends beyond technology discussions to include capital investments [1]. - The startups involved provide a range of products from software to physical power equipment technology, suggesting NVIDIA is seeking a comprehensive solution that integrates both hardware and software to tackle power challenges [1]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The summit serves as a strong signal that energy shortages are significantly affecting companies building AI infrastructures with NVIDIA chips, as these data centers are filled with energy-intensive AI server chips [2]. - The limitations in power supply may pose a real threat to the advancement of artificial intelligence technologies [2].