A股走低，创业板指跌超2%，深成指跌超1%，沪指跌0.61%，消费电子、算力硬件、培育钻石、存储芯片等方向跌幅居前，沪深京三市下跌个股 超3900只。 港股指数表现分化，恒生指数开盘微涨，恒生科技指数跌0.04%。科网股表现分化，美团、百度集团、中芯国际上涨；网易、比亚迪电子、金山 软件走弱。 9:29 商品期货开盘多数下跌，沪银主力合约涨近4%。苯乙烯、氧化铝跌超2%，纯碱、燃料油、甲醇、原油、玻璃、沪镍、沪铜跌超1%。 国债期货低开高走，30年期主力合约涨0.12%，10年期主力合约涨0.01%，5年期主力合约涨0.01%，2年期主力合约涨0.01%。 9:50 国债期货全线转涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL | CFFEX30年期国债期1 \/V | | 112.58 | 0.13 | 0.12% | | 1 | CFFEX10年期国债期1 \/v | | 107.980 | 0.010 | 0.01% | | IF | CFFEX5年期国债期货（γν | | 105.775 | ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 中国11月PPI同比 -2.2%，前值 -2.1%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Group 1 - SK Hynix is evaluating the possibility of listing in the U.S. to narrow the valuation gap with American peers like Micron Technology [1][3] - The company is considering listing approximately 2.4% of its outstanding shares, equivalent to about 17.4 million shares, through American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) [1] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory chips, driven by the AI boom, has led to a significant increase in SK Hynix's stock price, which has surged approximately 225% this year [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the impressive stock performance, SK Hynix's valuation still lags behind that of its U.S. counterparts [3] - Listing in the U.S. could provide access to a broader pool of global investors and is seen as a strategic attempt to address the "Korea discount" phenomenon [3]

Core Insights - OpenAI is undergoing a significant strategic shift in response to increasing competition from Google, marked by the issuance of a "red code" alert by CEO Sam Altman [1][2] - The company is temporarily halting long-term R&D projects, including the Sora video generator, to focus on enhancing user engagement with ChatGPT [1][3] - OpenAI's internal debate centers around prioritizing immediate consumer product success versus the long-term goal of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [2][4] Group 1: Strategic Adjustments - OpenAI will pause non-core projects for eight weeks to concentrate on improving ChatGPT's performance in rankings like LM Arena [3] - The decision reflects a power struggle within the company between commercialization efforts led by executives like Fidji Simo and Sarah Friar, and the research team led by Jakub Patchocki [3] - Management has rejected requests to delay the release of new models, with a new model, code-named 5.2, set to be released soon [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - OpenAI faces its most severe challenges since its inception, with Google's recent launches, including the Nano Banana image generator and Gemini 3 model, surpassing OpenAI's offerings [2][4] - The company risks financial strain due to a $1.4 trillion infrastructure contract if user growth continues to slow [2][4] - OpenAI's valuation reached $500 billion, with over 800 million average weekly active users, necessitating sustainable growth to support its operational scale [4] Group 3: User Engagement Strategy - Altman's emphasis on utilizing "user signals" for model training has sparked internal debate, as this approach can lead to AI models that cater excessively to user preferences [6] - The reliance on user feedback has previously resulted in mental health issues among users, prompting OpenAI to adjust its training methods to mitigate these risks [6] - Despite earlier adjustments leading to decreased user engagement, the company is now reverting to a more popular model to enhance user interaction [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - OpenAI plans to release an improved model in January that enhances image quality, speed, and personalization, aiming to exit the "red code" state [7] - The company believes that there is no fundamental conflict between broad AI tool adoption and the pursuit of AGI benefits for the public [7] - The current challenge lies in balancing technological advancements with commercial competition, high operational costs, and ethical safety concerns [7]

摩根大通支出预期远超预期，这一幕让人回想起2022年的相似场景，当时该行的成本指引同样引发股价 重挫。 摩根大通预计2025年支出将达1050亿美元，超出分析师预期，引发市场对银行业成本膨胀的担忧，该行 股价周二大跌4.7%，创下八个月来最大跌幅。摩根大通的大跌拖累了整个金融板块，成为道琼斯工业 平均指数的主要拖累因素。 摩根大通周二成为KBW银行指数中表现最差的股票，收于300.51美元。 投行业务前景谨慎乐观，消费者环境现警示信号 在投资银行业务方面，Lake预计2025年第四季度投行费用将较去年同期实现"低个位数"百分比增长，低 于分析师预期的6.3%增幅。交易收入方面前景更为乐观，Lake预计将实现"低两位数"百分比增长，超出 分析师预期。今年前九个月，摩根大通投行费用增长11%，交易收入大涨20%。 这一成本预警让投资者回想起2022年的相似情形，当时摩根大通的支出指引同样引发股价暴跌和市场动 荡。该行首席财务官Marianne Lake在高盛会议上表示，成本增长主要由"业务量和增长相关费用"、战 略投资以及"通胀的结构性影响"推动。 分析师警告，作为美国最大银行的摩根大通提高支出，可能迫使其他银行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged past $60 per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, global supply constraints, and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - Silver prices increased by 4.4% to $60.97 per ounce, with an intraday high of $61.06; spot prices rose by 3.9% to $60.46, peaking at $60.50 [1]. - Year-to-date, silver has appreciated nearly 110%, outperforming gold and platinum [1]. - In comparison, gold has risen 60% this year, surpassing $4,200, but its growth rate is lower than that of silver, resulting in the gold-silver ratio dropping below 70 for the first time since July 2021 [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The immediate catalyst for the current silver rally is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut [3]. - Structural supply issues are a significant driver, exacerbated by the U.S. Geological Survey listing silver as a "critical mineral," which has heightened concerns over supply stability and triggered stockpiling [3][5]. - Despite some relief in supply due to inflows into London vaults, other markets are facing severe supply constraints, with China's silver inventory at a decade low [5]. - The Silver Institute forecasts a fifth consecutive annual deficit in the silver market by 2025 due to limited production and rising industrial and investment demand [5]. Group 3: Industrial Demand - Silver's strong industrial demand is expected to provide solid support for prices, driven by growth in solar energy, electric vehicles, data centers, and AI [6]. - Analysts predict that industrial demand for silver will remain robust in the coming years, contributing to price increases [6]. - Silver plays a crucial role in the broader electrification process, grid upgrades, and in hybrid and electric vehicles, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for silver amid Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical tensions [6].

Group 1 - The current consumer spending environment is showing early warning signs similar to those before the 2008 financial crisis, with Las Vegas gaming revenue acting as an economic cycle indicator [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Lizzie Dove, report that consumer trends in Las Vegas are declining, reflecting early signs of economic recession [1][4] - Despite a K-shaped recovery and a bifurcated spending environment, the early signals warrant close attention from the market until early 2026 [1][4] Group 2 - The research establishes an analytical framework to identify the transmission path of consumer pressure, based on the responses of the tourism and leisure industry during the 2008-2009 recession [2] - Las Vegas and the airline industry were the first sectors impacted during the 2008 global financial crisis, with gaming revenue declining as early as February to March 2008 and airline boarding numbers showing a drop by mid-2008 [2] - In contrast, the hotel and cruise industries experienced a lag in their downturn, with U.S. hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) starting to decline in late 2008 and cruise industry net yields reaching their lowest point by mid-2009 [2] Group 3 - The emphasis on historical consumer behavior patterns is due to the current K-shaped recovery and differentiated spending environment signaling early warning signs [4] - Las Vegas trends indicate a downward trajectory, consistent with early signs of economic downturn, while the airline sector remains robust [4] - If airline demand begins to decline following Las Vegas, it would provide clearer evidence of broader economic weakness, potentially necessitating macroeconomic policy adjustments [4]

美联储下一任主席的遴选正进入终局。尽管白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特目前处于领先位置，但特朗 普决定启动最后一轮面试，表明最终人选远未"板上钉钉"。 今日，据英国《金融时报》援引三名美国政府高级官员透露，特朗普与财政部长贝森特计划于本周三会 见前美联储理事沃什。此举标志着为寻找现任主席鲍威尔继任者的最后一轮面试正式拉开帷幕。 这一最新进展表明，哈塞特的提名并非十拿九稳。除哈塞特和沃什外，最终候选人名单还包括另外两名 来自美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼以及贝莱德高管里克·里德等人中的入围者。最终决定预计将在明年1月初宣 布。 这一人事变动的核心影响在于未来的货币政策走向。部分华尔街投资者已表达担忧，认为与总统关系密 切的哈塞特可能会过于激进地降息，从而给市场带来潜在风险。 哈塞特领先，但任期或存变数 在近几周的角逐中，哈塞特已成为接替鲍威尔的热门人选。然而，特朗普政府官员们提出一个想法，让 哈塞特担任（比正常任期）更短的美联储主席。美联储主席的常规任期为四年，可连任。 另有两位知情人士称，哈塞特本人曾向贝森特提议，由他接替鲍威尔在美联储理事会的席位，该席位任 期至2028年1月结束。这种安排的灵活性，为未来的人事布局留下了 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会，表示开放合作是落实全球治理倡议的重要路径，应当加大市场相互开放，避免经贸问题泛 政治化、泛安全化。 市场概述 美联储重磅决议公布前夕，美股涨势不振，标普道指两连跌至一周低位，纳指小幅反弹，意外回暖。摩根大通跌近5%、领跌道指成分股。芯片指数止步两 连涨，英伟达回落0.3%，而博通涨超1%，三连涨、创历史新高；苹果五连跌，而特斯拉和谷歌反弹超1%。 美联储关注的就业指标意外回暖，美国职位空缺不降反升，美债价格止涨回跌、收益率盘中V形拉升，十年期美债收益率逼近两个多月高位。美国职位空缺 公布后，美元指数加速涨至一周来高位，加密货币拉升，比特币盘中涨超5%、涨破9.4万美元，以太坊一度涨近10%。 原油两连跌至两周低位，盘中跌超1%。黄金盘中创一周新低后转涨，期金收盘告别本月内低位；白银反弹、史上首次涨破60美元，期银一度涨近5%。伦铜 跌超1%，告别纪录高位。 亚洲时段，A股震荡分化，算力领涨，光伏拉升，商业航天继续活跃，中际旭创新高，港股走低，恒指和科指跌超1%，有色金属、半导体走弱。 要 ...

周二的10年期美债标售以4.175%的高收益率成交，高于去年11月的4.068%，创下8月以来最高水平。 周二美国财政部拍卖390亿美元10年期国债。本次拍卖需求强劲，国外买家购买比例创近四个月新高，但拍卖未能提振债市情绪，10年期美债收益 率维持在近三个月高位。 华尔街见闻提及，周二稍早，美国10月JOLTS职位空缺不降反升至五个月高点，令美联储本周降息决策面临的两难境地更加凸显。 虽然交易员几乎完全消化了美联储本周将降息25个基点的预期，但今年以来美联储两次降息的主要考量是应对就业市场疲软，而最新数据显示劳 动力市场韧性超出预期。 多位美联储官员近期警告称，由于通胀率持续高于央行2%的目标，可能不宜进一步降息。本月以来，市场对明年额外降息的预期已经大幅消退， 推动10年期美债收益率昨日触及4.19%，为9月底以来最高。 标售需求扎实，国外买家增持 债市反弹空间有限，明年宽松预期减弱 （周一10年期美债收益率触及4.19%，为9月底以来最高） 本月美国国债收益率普遍上升，10年期国债收益率周一触及4.19%，为9月下旬以来的最高水平。 DWS America固定收益主管George Catrambone表示 ...