风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 在经历两年多围绕电动汽车贸易问题的磋商后，中欧双方近日达成阶段性共识，为缓和紧张的经贸关系 释放出积极信号。中国机电商会更用"软着陆"来形容此次谈判成果。 从中国欧盟商会处获悉的一份声 明中，商会主席彦辞（Jens Eskelund）对欧中双方就电动车磋商达成新的共识给予积极评价。"基于欧 盟法规，双方就为中国出口至欧盟的纯电动汽车提供价格承诺指导意见达成共识，这是一个积极的信 号。商会希望，未来在出现此类问题时，（欧中）双方能继续进行坦诚、建设性的对话。" 同样的，复 旦大学中欧关系研究中心主任，上海欧洲学会副秘书长简军波也认为，此次中欧最新磋商进展的意义不 单局限于利好中欧电动车贸易，他向智通财经表示，这一成功实践为未来中欧处理各类经贸摩擦提供了 参考，具有重要的示范意义，"相较于单边制裁、贸易保护主义等手段，通过双边协商达成共识的方式 更具建设性"。 据路透社报道，当地时间12日，欧盟委员会发布了《关于提交 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with expectations, while the year-on-year core CPI was 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [1] - The December core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which was lower than the expected increase of 0.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. stock market is experiencing significant capital rotation from technology giants to traditional sectors such as banks, consumer goods, and materials producers, as investors bet on these sectors benefiting from expected economic acceleration in 2026 [1] Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - Despite the rotation of funds, large technology companies are still expected to be the main drivers of profit growth for the S&P 500 index during the fourth quarter earnings season, with a projected 20% year-over-year profit growth for the tech sector [1] - Bloomberg industry research predicts that the profit growth rate for S&P 500 value stocks will be around 9%, which is only one-third of the expected growth rate for growth stocks, with the tech sector's profit growth expected to reach 30% [2] Group 2: Traditional Sectors Outlook - Traditional economic sectors are showing some positive signs, with industrial companies expected to see a profit growth of 13% and non-essential consumer goods and services companies projected to grow by 12% [2] - Defensive sectors such as healthcare, materials, and essential consumer goods are also expected to have growth rates close to 10%, indicating that some traditional industries can still provide robust profit support alongside tech giants [2] Group 3: Market Rotation Challenges - The current rotation strategy is facing high expectations as the market transitions from tech dominance to traditional sectors, with the Federal Reserve's easing cycle opening new opportunities for economically sensitive industries [3] - Data from Deutsche Bank shows a continued decline in holdings of large-cap growth and tech stocks, while small-cap stock exposure has reached its highest level in nearly a year, indicating a significant shift in investment strategy [3] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial for the 493 companies in the S&P 500 index, excluding the "Tech Seven," as high market expectations set a high performance threshold [3] Group 4: Policy Support for Economic Growth - Piper Sandler's chief investment strategist highlights optimism for cyclical sectors such as transportation, housing, and manufacturing, supported by the Federal Reserve's loose policies, falling oil prices, and relaxed lending standards [4] - These policy combinations are seen as key drivers supporting the profit recovery of non-tech sectors, with investors betting on accelerated economic growth in the U.S. in the first half of 2026, potentially leading to better performance from traditional cyclical industries compared to high-valuation tech stocks [5]

Core Insights - The narrative logic on Wall Street is fundamentally shifting as the AI investment boom matures, with a focus on return on invested capital (ROIC) rather than just technological breakthroughs [1] - Companies that can demonstrate substantial returns from GenAI or GPU-driven technologies will attract capital, emphasizing revenue growth, user engagement, and expanded earnings per share (EPS) and free cash flow (FCF) [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that the 2026 market theme will continue to favor companies proving substantial returns from AI technologies [1] - Key companies identified for potential growth include Amazon, META, and DoorDash, which are expected to leverage AI for efficiency and business expansion [1] - Sectors facing disruptive uncertainties, such as ride-hailing and online travel, are projected to receive lower valuation multiples [1] Group 2: Key Debates Reshaping the Industry - Debate 1: The focus will shift from parameter competition in large models to productization and monetization, with companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon being scrutinized for their ability to integrate AI into revenue-generating products [2][3] - Debate 2: The market will demand visible returns from GenAI investments, with a predicted leap in enterprise adoption rates, benefiting cloud giants like Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure [4] - Debate 3: The trend of layoffs may continue as companies utilize GenAI to enhance internal efficiency, potentially leading to a significant reduction in operational expenditures [5][6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Debate 4: AI agents are expected to revolutionize e-commerce, with companies possessing specific vertical data, such as Amazon and Walmart, likely to benefit first [7] - Debate 5: The availability of autonomous vehicles (AV) is projected to increase significantly, with the market for ride-hailing services expected to expand rather than contract due to AV technology [8] - Debate 6: Amazon's investment in physical AI and robotics is anticipated to yield substantial cost savings, with a focus on logistics optimization [9] Group 4: Emerging Opportunities - Debate 7: The U.S. offline grocery market, valued at $1.4 trillion, presents a significant opportunity for AI agents to streamline shopping experiences [10] - Debate 8: The search market is evolving, with AI search engines expected to drive a compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2023 to 2026 [11] - Debate 9: The gaming industry is undergoing a transformation due to AI, which is expected to lower production costs and create opportunities for cloud computing giants [12] - Debate 10: The online dating industry may see a revival through AI-enhanced matching algorithms, potentially leading to valuation recoveries for companies like Match Group and Bumble [13]

野村证券最新报告指出，市场将日本可能提前举行的大选单纯解读为将加剧"再通胀"存在误判。该行认 为，其核心政策目标可能并非强化短期通胀，而是为推进更深层次的结构性改革。 据追风交易台，报告表示，提前大选还可能为日本央行带来更大的政策自由度。市场目前定价日本央行 在4月加息的概率为39%，若高市早苗在大选中获胜，可能使日本央行在制定货币政策时拥有更灵活的 空间，减少对密集政治日程的顾虑。 1月13日，据央视新闻，日本首相高市早苗向自民党干部传达了将在23日解散众议院，提前举行大选的 意向。消息后，市场再现"旧版高市交易"模式，日股大涨创新高，而国债与日元则同步承压。分析普遍 认为，更强的民意授权将巩固高市早苗扩张性财政立场及对宽松货币政策的偏好，这虽利好股市，但也 加剧了市场对日本债务可持续性的担忧，从而引发债市与汇市的抛售。 野村警告称，当前围绕大选的猜测将持续影响市场。如果投资者继续押注于"旧版高市经济"的延续，可 能推动日元进一步走软和债市收益率曲线熊市陡峭化。然而，投资者需警惕风险：若大选结果最终成为 政策转向结构性改革的契机，那么当前基于通胀和宽松预期的市场定价可能需要大幅修正。 野村判断：转向结构改革 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 摩根大通：第四季度调整后营收为467.7亿美元，市场预期为463.5亿美元；第四季度FICC销售与交易收 入为53.8亿美元，市场预期为52.7亿美元；第四季度股票销售与交易收入为28.6亿美元，市场预期为27 亿美元。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant financing round for X Square Robot, marking a pivotal moment in the embodied intelligence sector with a total of 1 billion RMB raised in A++ round funding [1] - The investment was led by ByteDance and Sequoia China, with participation from several prominent state-owned funds, indicating strong interest from major players in the tech industry [1] - X Square Robot has uniquely attracted strategic investments from three major internet giants: Alibaba, Meituan, and ByteDance, which is rare in the industry [1] Company Overview - X Square Robot has established itself as a leading player in the embodied intelligence field, having received investments from Alibaba, Meituan, and ByteDance within a short span [1] - The company focuses on a model-driven approach to hardware, emphasizing the importance of foundational models for embodied intelligence rather than merely enhancing robotic movement capabilities [2] - The CEO, Wang Qian, asserts that the competition in embodied intelligence will revolve around the evolution of foundational models and their ability to create data loops [2] Technological Advancements - The company has developed the Wall-OSS operating system, which is seen as a precursor to an Android-like platform for embodied intelligence, aiming to standardize software capabilities across different hardware [2] - X Square Robot's WALL-A model integrates visual, language, and action capabilities, achieving a "multi-modal thinking chain" that allows for spatial and temporal state predictions [2] - The robots have demonstrated remarkable generalization abilities, successfully performing complex tasks such as food delivery and package recycling even in challenging conditions [3] Data and Hardware Development - The company has built a robust data and hardware ecosystem, utilizing real machine data collection and model-driven data pipelines to support its advancements [4] - X Square Robot has launched two high-performance robot models, Quantum One and Quantum Two, which have significantly reduced overall costs through in-house development of key components [4] - The robots are now being deployed in various high-value sectors, including industrial manufacturing, logistics, and elder care, showcasing their adaptability to complex environments [4] Funding Utilization - The 1 billion RMB raised in the latest funding round will primarily be allocated towards the training and iteration of the next-generation unified embodied intelligence general model [5] Industry Context - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the embodied intelligence sector, with X Square Robot positioned as a key player due to its backing from major industry players [6]

在营业收入仅增长1.88%的背景下，该行归母净利润实现了10.52%的两位数增长； 这种收入与利润增速的"剪刀差"，意味着新增收入的转化效率正在提升。 更关键的信号在于资产质量： 2025年，该行不良率同比优化0.1个百分点至1.26%、创下近年最优水平，同时拨备覆盖率大幅提升13.76个百分点至200.72%。 通常而言，银行在利润承压时，往往面临"释放利润"与"增厚拨备"的两难选择； 浦发银行交出了上市银行的首份2025年成绩单，披露公司实现营收、归母净利1465.5亿元、500.17亿元。 浦发银行此次两项数据的同步增长，侧面说明其利润增长并非源自"财务洗澡"或调节拨备，而是实打实的业绩回温。 | 项目 | 2025 年 | 202 | | --- | --- | --- | | | (未经审计) | (经) | | 营业收入 | 173, 964 | 17 | | 营业利润 | 53, 608 | ん | | 利润总额 | 53, 374 | | | 归属于母公司股东的净利润 | 50, 017 | | | 归属于母公司股东的扣除非经常性 | 50, 144 | | | 损益的净利润 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has revised its expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from January and April to June and September, shifting the focus from the labor market to inflation as the core rationale for policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Recent improvements in economic momentum and a decrease in unemployment have reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement emergency rate cuts to stabilize the labor market [2][7]. - The focus of policy is now on inflation, with the need to wait for the full price transmission effects of tariffs and to confirm a clear and sustainable trend of inflation returning to the 2% target before initiating a rate cut cycle [2][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The anticipated process of inflation slowing is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026, leading to the adjustment of the first rate cut expectations to June and September, with each cut projected to be 25 basis points [7]. - The current market pricing of the policy rate terminal value (approximately 3.11%) is closely aligned with Morgan Stanley's economists' scenario analysis (3.22%), but the market is still underestimating downside risks [8][13]. Group 3: Risk Assessment - The market's probability distribution for various macroeconomic scenarios shows a significant underpricing of "tail risks," with only 7% allocated to mild recession scenarios, indicating a need for a more dovish pricing path [8][13]. - As time progresses, if economic or inflation data deviates from expectations, there remains potential for further downward adjustments in the market's pricing of the policy rate's lowest point, likely occurring after mid-2026 rather than in the short term [13].

受AI需求激增驱动，美国最大的电网运营商、非营利组织PJM联接（PJM Interconnection）正面临严重 的供应危机。这一覆盖13个州、服务6700万人的电力网络已逼近负荷极限，不仅推高了居民用电成本， 更令多地陷入轮流停电的风险之中。 PJM 面临的挑战不仅是技术性的，更是政治性的。其服务范围横跨13个州，各州政府对发电类型、建 设许可及价格监管的政策导向迥异。 据《华尔街日报》13日报道，PJM目前正处于供需失衡的边缘。科技行业对AI数据中心近乎"无底线"的 电力渴求，导致用电需求增速远超电网承载力。前联邦能源管理委员会主席Mark Christie表示，几年前 这种可靠性风险还在远郊，而现在"风险已近在咫尺"。 目前，PJM预计未来十年电力需求年均增长4.8%，这对一个多年需求增长停滞的系统而言是惊人的挑 战。与此同时，老旧发电厂的关闭速度超过了新厂建设进度。一旦遭遇极端热浪或深冻灾害，PJM可能 被迫采取轮流停电措施，以防止电网基础设施受损。 市场对这一趋势的反应剧烈。消费者因费率上涨表达愤怒，宾夕法尼亚州等地的州长已向监管机构申诉 要求限制价格。与此同时，亚马逊、Alphabet和微软等科 ...