Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry criticizes the Federal Reserve, suggesting it is an unnecessary institution that could be replaced by the Treasury, claiming that managing the Fed is "the easiest job in the world" [1][4] Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Burry expresses a "sick view" regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, stating that it has caused significant damage over the past century [2] - He warns that any easing measures by the Fed could "kill" savers and fixed-income investors, indicating that there is currently no justification for lowering interest rates [3][4] Group 2: Potential Political Influence - Burry speculates that if Trump were to exert more control over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to its "end," suggesting that such a scenario would make the Fed widely unpopular [3] - He emphasizes that the roles of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are largely interchangeable, arguing that their functions have become almost identical [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Since returning to the public eye, Burry has issued warnings about a potential bubble in the U.S. stock market and has taken short positions against companies like Nvidia and Palantir [4]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's new CEO Georges Elhedery is committed to a significant restructuring of the bank to ensure its core business areas rank among the top five globally [1][3]. Group 1: Restructuring Plans - Elhedery defended the difficult decision to close key investment banking operations in the UK, Europe, and the Americas, emphasizing the necessity of these actions [1][4]. - The CEO plans to "double down" on mergers and acquisitions consulting and equity capital markets in the Middle East and Asia, aiming for HSBC to become the leading institution in these markets [3][4]. - Since taking office in September, Elhedery has restructured the operational framework, eliminated high-salary banker positions, and shifted the strategic focus towards Asia and the Middle East [3][5]. Group 2: Business Focus - Elhedery stated that HSBC must adopt a "ruthless" attitude towards its business portfolio, acknowledging areas where the bank has not performed well enough to be in the top 20 [4][5]. - The restructuring includes dividing HSBC's operations into "Eastern" and "Western" units, later renamed to "Asia and Middle East" and "Europe and Americas," and closing key investment banking segments [5]. Group 3: Leadership Changes - HSBC's board is under pressure to appoint a permanent chairman to replace Sir Mark Tucker, who stepped down earlier this year [6][7]. - Former UK Chancellor George Osborne and Goldman Sachs executive Kevin Sneader are reported as leading candidates for the chairman position [7]. - Elhedery noted that the primary role of the non-executive chairman is to challenge him, and the interim chairman Brendan Nelson will continue until a suitable replacement is found [7].

这一切背后，一个更抽象但日益重要的问题浮出水面：究竟什么样的利率水平既不会刺激经济也不会抑 制经济？这个被称为"中性利率"的理论终点，正成为美联储官员们难以达成共识的焦点。 在实施了超过一个百分点的降息之后，美国联邦储备委员会的官员们正面临一个棘手的问题：政策宽松 的终点在哪里。 这种分歧正演变为一场异常公开的争论，不仅关系到下周是否会再次降息，也关系到此后的政策走向。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已承认，在稳定物价和最大化就业两大目标之间如何权衡，委员会内部存 在"强烈不同的观点"。 争论的核心在于，经济究竟是需要更多刺激来支撑就业市场，还是由于通胀率仍高于目标以及关税可能 进一步推高物价，决策者应稍作停歇。这种局势使得每一次潜在的降息都变得愈发艰难和充满争议。 看法"遍地开花"，中性利率成焦点 费城联储主席Anna Paulson在11月20日的讲话中也表达了类似的谨慎。她表示，通胀和失业率的双重风 险，加上利率可能已接近中性水平，使她对12月的会议持谨慎态度。她警告说，"货币政策必须走在一 条钢丝上"，因为"每一次降息都让我们更接近政策从轻微限制活动转向开始提供动力的那个点"。 除了对中性利率当前水平的看法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in short positions in Vanke indicates growing market concerns about the company's financial health, particularly following its request to delay the repayment of a 2.83 billion USD bond and interest due this month [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Vanke's short positions in Hong Kong have risen to 25.1% of its free-floating shares, the highest level since January 2015 [1] - The surge in short selling reflects heightened worries among investors regarding Vanke's financial stability [1] Group 2: Financial Obligations - The company is seeking to postpone the repayment of 2 billion RMB (approximately 2.83 million USD) in bonds and interest that are due this month [1]

Core Insights - Ruchir Sharma predicts a potential end to the AI technology bubble, influenced by rising interest rates and persistent inflation pressures, with inflation expected to remain close to 3% next year [1][3] - He outlines three major investment trends for 2026: the possible end of the AI bubble, a renewed preference for quality stocks, and the continuation of international markets outperforming the U.S. market [1][4][6] Group 1: Economic Conditions and Interest Rates - Sharma emphasizes that rising interest rates will trigger skepticism in the market, which has been overly confident in AI investments [3] - Historical patterns indicate that every market bubble has been burst by rising interest rates, suggesting that current inflation trends could lead to such an outcome [3] - The Federal Reserve's inability to meet the 2% inflation target for five consecutive years raises concerns about future monetary policy adjustments [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies for 2026 - The first recommendation is to "buy quality stocks," characterized by high return on equity (ROE) and low leverage, which have underperformed recently, presenting a buying opportunity [5] - The second trend is the potential end of the AI bubble, which is closely tied to interest rate movements, although the exact timing remains uncertain [6] - Lastly, the trend of international markets outperforming the U.S. market is expected to continue, marking the beginning of a multi-year cycle that offers diversification and growth opportunities outside the U.S. [6]

Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology's stock surged after the company provided a strong growth forecast for its data center business, overshadowing a lackluster overall earnings outlook, which renewed investor confidence in the custom chip manufacturer [1][3]. Financial Performance - Marvell reported a third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.76 and revenue of $2.08 billion, slightly exceeding analyst expectations of $0.74 EPS and $2.07 billion revenue [4]. - The data center business, a key revenue driver, saw a 38% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $1.52 billion, slightly above Wall Street's expectation of $1.51 billion [4]. Future Guidance - The company provided a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter, expecting an adjusted EPS of $0.79 (with a $0.05 margin) and revenue of $2.2 billion (with a 5% margin), aligning closely with analyst predictions [4]. - CEO Matt Murphy's forecast of over 25% year-over-year growth in data center revenue for the next fiscal year significantly boosted market sentiment [3][4]. Acquisition Plans - Marvell announced plans to acquire AI startup Celestial AI for approximately $3.25 billion in cash and stock, which was not included in the optimistic revenue forecast [5]. Market Dynamics - Despite an 83% stock price increase in 2024, Marvell's stock has declined by 16% year-to-date, reflecting investor concerns about the company's ability to secure long-term orders amid intense competition [6]. - The market's skepticism centers around the prospects of custom ASIC chips, which are tailored for specific applications and seen as potential alternatives to NVIDIA's GPUs [6]. Analyst Perspectives - UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri noted that most customers are diversifying their supply chains, using multiple GPU and ASIC suppliers, which could benefit companies like Marvell [7]. - Arcuri maintains a "Buy" rating on Marvell with a target price of $110, suggesting that the company's strong guidance supports a positive outlook [7].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's cancellation of the scheduled interviews for the Federal Reserve Chair candidates indicates that the selection for this key position is effectively finalized, with Kevin Hassett being the likely choice [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - Trump has signaled that Hassett is the frontrunner for the Federal Reserve Chair position, as he stated he knows who he wants to select and referred to Hassett as a "potential Fed Chair" during a public event [1][2]. - The initial candidate pool was narrowed from 11 to 5 by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, but Trump has shown disinterest in continuing the interview process, effectively bypassing the established selection protocol [2]. - The White House claimed that no one knew the next Fed Chair candidate before the President's announcement, but Trump's public comments have undermined this assertion [2]. Group 2: Implications of the Appointment - The appointment of the new Fed Chair is considered one of Trump's most significant decisions for his second term, as the current Chair Powell's term ends in mid-May [3]. - The new Chair will face a divided decision-making environment, needing to balance risks of a slowing job market against persistent inflation risks, with pressures from Trump to lower interest rates [3]. - Trump's regret over appointing Powell, influenced by Mnuchin's recommendation, adds complexity to the selection process, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's past decisions may impact his current standing [3].

华尔街看好中国股市复苏势头，认为人工智能的加速应用、产业"反内卷"等多个积极因素正对市场构成 支撑。 12月3日，据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在其展望2026年的新兴市场股票策略报告中，将中国股市的评 级从"中性"上调至"增持"（Overweight），认为市场正处于复苏的早期阶段，其可接受的估值和仍然较 轻的投资者仓位，为潜在上涨提供了坚实基础。 这份报告明确指出，中国股市在2025年第一季度经历飙升后出现回调，这反而造就了一个"有吸引力的 切入点"。由策略师Rajiv Batra领导的团队认为，进入2026年，多重增量支撑因素正在为中国市场积聚 能量，并作出了一个关键判断："我们认为，2026年大幅上涨的风险远高于大幅下跌的风险。" 报告强调，"对中国股市的积极情绪也往往为新兴市场的整体表现和主动型基金的资金流向定下基 调。"基于此，摩根大通的基本情景（Base case）预测MSCI中国指数2026年底的目标位为100点，较报 告发布时有19%的上涨空间。其牛市情景（Bull case）目标为120点，熊市情景（Bear case）为80点。 这一评级上调的背后，是摩根大通对中国市场一系列结构性变化的看好 ...

Core Viewpoint - Anthropic is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) that could become one of the largest in history, competing with OpenAI for market entry, potentially as early as 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Preparation - Anthropic has hired the law firm Wilson Sonsini to assist with its IPO preparations, which marks a significant step in the company's journey towards going public [1]. - The company is currently negotiating a private funding round that could value it at over $300 billion [1]. - Discussions with major investment banks regarding the potential IPO are ongoing but remain preliminary and informal, indicating that the company has not yet selected underwriters [1][2]. Group 2: Financial and Operational Context - Anthropic's spokesperson stated that operating like a public company is standard for firms of its size and revenue, but no decisions have been made regarding the timing or certainty of the IPO [2]. - The company has been working on internal changes necessary for the IPO process, with Krishna Rao, a former Airbnb executive, serving as CFO [2]. - Both Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to pursue unprecedented valuations for tech startups during their IPOs, with OpenAI's valuation at $500 billion as of October last year [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Investors in Anthropic are enthusiastic about the IPO, believing that a first-mover advantage could allow the company to outpace larger competitor OpenAI [3]. - Anthropic recently secured a $15 billion funding commitment from Microsoft and Nvidia, contributing to an anticipated valuation between $300 billion and $350 billion [3]. - Both companies face challenges due to their rapid growth and the astronomical costs associated with training AI models, which complicate financial forecasting [3].

Market Performance - A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened lower and fell by 0.44%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped over 1% [1][6] - Major tech stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, and JD.com experienced minor declines, with losses under 0.8% [1] - NIO and XPeng Motors continued to decline, with drops exceeding 4% [1][6] Sector Performance - The shipbuilding sector, liquid-cooled servers, AI smartphones, photolithography machines, and 6G concept stocks weakened [1] - The lithium battery supply chain showed strength, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - Nuclear power stocks, building materials, cement, and new consumption concept stocks mostly rose [1] Commodity and Bond Market - Commodity futures opened mostly lower, with coking coal down 1.60%, low-sulfur fuel oil down 1.35%, and industrial silicon down 1.10% [1][7] - Silver futures rose by 1.62%, and the shipping index (European line) increased by 0.73% [1] - Government bond futures mostly increased, with the 30-year main contract up 0.07% and the 10-year main contract up 0.05% [1][2] New Listings - New stock Jin Yan Gao Ling New Materials opened over 27% higher, indicating strong market interest [1]