Core Insights - The article discusses the significant financial implications of determining the depreciation period for GPUs as major tech companies plan to invest $1 trillion in AI data centers over the next five years [1] - The depreciation period directly affects financial performance, with longer periods allowing companies to spread costs over more years, thus reducing profit impact [1][4] - Concerns about AI spending are reflected in stock price declines for companies like CoreWeave and Oracle, indicating investor skepticism about over-investment in AI [1] Depreciation Challenges - Estimating GPU depreciation is complicated due to a lack of historical usage data, as the first AI processors from NVIDIA were launched around 2018, and the current AI boom began in late 2022 [4] - CoreWeave has adopted a six-year depreciation cycle for its infrastructure, while its CEO emphasizes a data-driven approach to assess GPU lifespan [5] - Market opinions vary, with some suggesting actual GPU lifespan may be as short as two to three years, leading to concerns about inflated earnings projections by major tech firms [5] Technological Pressure - The rapid pace of technological advancement is a key factor in GPU depreciation, with new models potentially rendering older ones obsolete within a short timeframe [6][7] - NVIDIA has shifted to an annual release cycle for new AI chips, increasing the risk of older models losing value quickly [7] - Amazon has reduced the estimated lifespan of some servers from six years to five due to accelerated technological development in AI and machine learning [7] Strategic Responses from Tech Giants - Microsoft is diversifying its AI chip procurement strategy to avoid over-investment in any single generation of processors, learning from NVIDIA's rapid product cycles [8] - Depreciation estimates in fast-evolving industries like technology require careful consideration of various factors, including technological obsolescence and historical lifespan data [8]

市场对AI周期巨额融资需求的担忧正在发酵，美股科技股遭遇大幅抛售，动量交易策略重挫，AI相关主题篮子、比特币敏感股等投机板块亦遭遇 猛烈抛售。 纳斯达克指数100周四大跌超2%，收于当日低点，过去六个交易日中五天下跌。这场抛售集中打击了动量交易策略和AI相关标的。尽管纳斯达克 100指数距历史高点仅约5%，并试图守住50日均线这一关键支撑位，但市场情绪已明显转向防御。 在年内仅剩30个完整交易日的背景下，投资者正等待市场叙事和价格走势企稳。高盛指出，主经纪商账簿中的动量敞口仍处于高位（一年期第76 百分位、五年期第88百分位），而年末减仓和税损收割的季节性压力正在显现。目前，投资者正等待更清晰的信号——无论是英伟达财报能否超 预期，还是美联储货币政策路径能否明朗化——来判断这轮抛售何时企稳。 高盛数据显示，该行高贝塔动量配对交易(GSPRHIMO)周四暴跌7%，创下今年第二差表现，也是自DeepSeek事件以来的最大单日跌幅。AI相关主 题篮子、比特币敏感股和量子计算等投机性板块均遭遇猛烈抛售。 AI泡沫等五大压力因素引发抛售 高盛交易团队列出了此轮下跌的五大触发因素。 首先，投资者在英伟达下周公布财报前选择 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国商务部：10月份个人收入、支出及PCE指数将于美东时间11月26日上午10点发布。 ...

当 AI 泡沫、主权债风险与全球流动性拐点同时逼近，Ray Dalio的"债务周期警报"似乎正从理论走向现实。 根据最新13F文件，三季度，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金不仅一口气砍掉65%的英伟达持仓，还在同一季度大幅加仓美股大盘指数ETF，并清理多 只新兴市场重仓股——一场"避险式调仓"正在悄悄发生。 这一调整的意图明显： 英伟达遭大幅减持：短期风险升温 报告显示，截至9月30日，桥水持有英伟达251万股，较二季度末的723万股暴降65.3%。而在刚过去的第二季度，桥水才对英伟达持仓大幅加码逾 150%。两季度的急转弯，意味明显的策略转向：从"追随趋势"到"风险管理优先"。 | Stock = | Company Name = | % of Portfolio ▼ | Shares Owned | Value Owned = | Latest Activity = | Ownership Hist Average Buy Price 1 | | Price History Date = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The Chinese economy is undergoing a significant structural transformation, transitioning from an export-driven model to a more balanced focus on domestic demand [1] - The future of high-quality development should not solely rely on replacing old industries but rather on the collaboration of new and old driving forces [1] - A fundamental reform of the social security system is essential to unlock true domestic consumption potential [3] Group 1: Economic Transition - The transition period is characterized by a notable rise in China's position within the value chain, providing strong support for the economy [1] - Emerging industries, particularly in artificial intelligence and automotive sectors, are showing unexpected performance, with China becoming the largest producer and exporter of vehicles [1][2] - The shipbuilding industry secured 75% of global orders last year, and over 50% of robots globally are now produced in China [2] Group 2: Importance of Traditional Industries - There is a need to avoid the misconception that only new economies matter, as traditional sectors remain crucial for economic stability [2] - Real estate plays a vital role in household wealth, accounting for over 50% of many families' assets, which is significantly higher than the stock market [2] - The urbanization rate in China is approximately 68%, indicating substantial unmet demand in housing and transportation [2] Group 3: Consumer Spending and Policy - Consumer spending is seen as a key variable in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the government implementing substantial consumption policies [3] - Long-term reforms in the social security system are deemed more effective than short-term cash incentives for stimulating consumer spending [3] Group 4: Capital Market Development - The capital market is expected to play a more significant role in the national economy, with a focus on enhancing the financial weight of Chinese assets [4] - Key directions include promoting the internationalization of the RMB, nurturing truly global enterprises, and protecting investors to ensure healthy industrial development [4] - Achieving these goals will require patience and sustained efforts in the right direction [4]

Market Overview - The optimism following the end of the U.S. government shutdown quickly faded, leading to widespread selling of high-valuation tech stocks and risk assets due to concerns over delayed economic data and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2] - On October 13, major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping 2.29% [1][6] Cryptocurrency Market - The negative sentiment also affected the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin falling below $100,000 and Ethereum experiencing a drop of over 10% [2] Federal Reserve's Stance - Cautionary remarks from several Federal Reserve officials indicated a need for careful consideration regarding interest rate cuts, causing the probability of a rate cut to drop from over 70% to around 50% in the futures market [2][18] - Officials expressed concerns about inflation and the resilience of the labor market, leading to hesitance among decision-makers regarding further monetary policy easing [16][17] Stock Performance - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.66%, closing at 6,737.49 points, marking the largest single-day drop in a month [6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.65%, closing at 47,457.22 points, moving away from its historical high [7] - The Nasdaq Index dropped by 2.29%, closing at 22,870.355 points, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 2.05% [8] - The Russell 2000 Index declined by 2.77%, closing at 2,382.984 points [9] Volatility and Tech Stocks - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose by 14.33%, indicating increased market fear [10] - The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks index fell by 2.26%, closing at 203.76 points, with notable declines in individual stocks such as Tesla (-6.64%) and Nvidia (-3.58%) [11][12] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped by 3.72%, closing at 6,818.736 points, with AMD and TSMC also experiencing declines [13][14][15]

日前，四川锦江电子医疗器械科技股份有限公司（下称"锦江电子"）向证监局递交了IPO辅导备案申请。 这是锦江电子三年内二度启动IPO。 早在2023年6月，锦江电子就曾向科创板发起冲刺，但仅经历1轮问询便撤回了IPO申请，宣告IPO终止审核。 锦江电子两度IPO的保荐机构均为中信证券。 诡异的是，中信证券却在锦江电子IPO辅导材料备注中称"近3年内锦江电子不存在提交首次公开发行股票上市申请被 终止审查、不予核准、不予注册的情况。" | | 近 3 年内四川锦江电子医疗器械科技股份有限公司(以下简称公 | | --- | --- | | 各 | 注 司、辅导对象)不存在提交首次公开发行股票上市申请被终止审查、 | | | 不予核准、不予注册的情况 | 按照惯例，如果一家公司3年内二度启动IPO，则保荐机构会在辅导材料的备注一览清晰列示该公司过往申报IPO的情 况。 例如同是中信证券的IPO辅导项目，艾柯医疗器械（北京）股份有限公司（下称"艾柯医"）亦是二度冲刺IPO，辅导材 料的备注中清晰列示"2023年4月20日公司向上海证券交易所科创板申报的上市申请获受理，后因市场环境变化，公司 撤回前次上市申请，并于202 ...

如果对等关税被推翻，瑞银称，不要指望关税会消失，特朗普的B计划已准备好。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间11月5日，美国最高法院审议特朗普全面关税政策的合法性并听取口头辩论。据华尔街见闻文章，此前，联邦上诉法院 曾裁定，特朗普实施多项对等关税措施超越了总统的紧急权力范围，此次最高法院的审理正是针对下级法院裁决的上诉。 11月14日，据追风交易台消息，瑞银在最新报告中称，即使美国最高法院裁定当前通过《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收的"对等关税"非 法，政府也已准备好一套"B计划"工具箱，能够迅速重建大部分关税壁垒。 报告称，若IEEPA关税被推翻，美国加权平均关税税率（WATR）将从13.6%骤降至7.2%。但这只是暂时现象。通过启动《1974年贸易法》的第 122条和第301条等备用授权，预计税率能够迅速恢复至11.8%-12.6%的水平，与当前相差无几。 关税根基动摇：IEEPA授权面临最高法院挑战 当前美国政府关税政策的基石之一——《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）正面临最高法院的司法审查。瑞银称，法院多数法官对该法案用于征 收关税的合法性持怀疑态度。 如果法院在2026年初做出不利于政府的裁决，那么 ...

韩国与美国签署谅解备忘录，首尔以3500亿美元投资承诺换取关税优惠与核心防务技术让步，这份协议 为韩国汽车制造商和芯片制造商的出口计划提供了更大确定性。 据新华社报道，韩国总统李在明14日在首尔龙山总统府举行新闻发布会，宣布韩美敲定两国关税和国家 安全磋商成果文件"联合事实清单"。 根据公布的文件内容，韩美领导人表示认同今年7月发布的"韩国战略贸易及投资协议"，确认协议包括 韩国对美造船领域的1500亿美元投资，以及《战略投资谅解备忘录》承诺的额外2000亿美元对美投资。 协议显示，美国将对韩国商品征收15%的关税上限，汽车关税从当前的25%下调，但仍远高于此前自贸 协定下的2.5%。韩国则需在2030年前采购250亿美元美国军事装备，并为驻韩美军贡献330亿美元支持 资金。这份协议还包括韩国长期寻求的核潜艇建造推进以及铀浓缩和核燃料后处理权利扩大等关键防务 让步。 3500亿美元投资框架：造船半导体成重点领域 3500亿美元投资设施将引导韩国资本流入美国造船、能源和半导体、制药、关键矿产、人工智能和量子 计算等战略产业。 据媒体报道，李在明强调，投资将限于具有商业可行性的项目，明确回应公众对该计划可能构成援 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is undergoing a significant strategic transformation, balancing short-term growth with long-term capability building, as evidenced by its recent financial performance which shows revenue growth but a substantial decline in net profit [2][17]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, JD.com reported revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [4][6]. - However, net profit fell by 54.7% to 5.3 billion yuan, the largest decline in recent years, primarily due to strategic investments in new businesses, particularly in the food delivery sector [5][17]. - The operating loss for new businesses, including food delivery, reached 15.7 billion yuan, significantly up from 600 million yuan in the same period last year [5]. Business Segments - JD Retail remains a key pillar, with Q3 revenue of 250.6 billion yuan, up 11.4%, and operating profit of 14.8 billion yuan, a 27.6% increase, improving the operating margin to 5.9% from 5.2% [6]. - JD Logistics also performed well, with revenue of 55.1 billion yuan, a 24.1% year-on-year increase, maintaining both revenue and profit growth [6]. - New business revenue surged by 213.7% to 15.6 billion yuan, although the company implemented a commission-free policy for merchants, resulting in lower commission income [6][9]. Cost Structure - Marketing expenses rose by 110.5% to 21.1 billion yuan, with the marketing expense ratio increasing from 3.8% to 7.0%, driven by new business promotional activities [8]. - Fulfillment expenses increased by 35.2% to 22 billion yuan, with fulfillment costs as a percentage of revenue rising from 6.3% to 7.4% [8]. - R&D expenses grew by 28.4% to 5.6 billion yuan, indicating continued investment in technology [8]. User Growth and Engagement - As of October 2025, JD.com surpassed 700 million annual active users, with user shopping frequency increasing by over 40% [8]. - The food delivery business is enhancing user conversion rates, with nearly 50% of early food delivery users transitioning to other services [9]. Strategic Initiatives - JD.com is focused on building a "super supply chain" that integrates all business segments, aiming to create a long-term competitive advantage [11][12]. - The company has invested heavily in technology, with supply chain infrastructure assets totaling 174.3 billion yuan as of Q3 2025 [14]. - The food delivery service "Seven Fresh Kitchen" is expanding rapidly, with search volume and order volume increasing significantly during the Double 11 shopping festival [15]. Global Expansion - JD.com is leveraging its supply chain and international logistics network to expand globally, with operations in 36 countries and pilot programs in key European markets [16]. Long-term Vision - JD.com is committed to a long-term strategy, with CEO Liu Qiangdong emphasizing the need for sustained efforts over a decade or more to build an unreplicable competitive moat [17].