Core Insights - The narrative of global assets may shift from "technology dominance" to "industrial and credit expansion" as new industrial cycles appear to be starting, indicating potential for higher-than-consensus earnings in 2026 [1] - Bank of America (BofA) suggests that the combination of strong hard data, improving soft data, and strengthening industrial momentum points to more opportunities outside crowded trades [1][2] Group 1: Industrial Cycle Indicators - BofA's analysis shows that hard data is above long-term averages, while soft data indicators have improved significantly, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reaching its highest level since August [2][5] - Several proprietary high-frequency indicators from BofA have strengthened, indicating a positive outlook for global manufacturing PMI and industrial demand [5][10] - The current market narrative may shift from debt-driven consumption to visible organic growth in the industrial sector [8] Group 2: Credit Conditions and Expansion - BofA identifies unfavorable credit terms as a barrier to manufacturing expansion, suggesting that regulatory changes could unlock over $1 trillion in new capital from the banking system by 2026 [9][10] - Specific data points indicate that large U.S. banks hold excess capital above regulatory requirements, and capital requirements are expected to decrease, which could facilitate credit improvements [9][10] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Impact - The semiconductor sector, particularly analog chips, is viewed as a leading indicator for the industrial cycle, with expectations of a 30% year-over-year growth in chip sales by 2026 [10][11] - The rebound in storage chip prices and increased AI demand are driving significant growth in exports from South Korea, which is linked to broader global earnings revisions [14] Group 4: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - Year-to-date returns show that expansion trades have outperformed stagnant assets, with small and mid-cap industrial stocks leading the gains [15] - Despite strong performance in expansion assets, there remains a significant underallocation in these areas compared to stagnant assets, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [15][16] Group 5: Risks in Less Transparent Markets - The report highlights risks associated with SPACs, cryptocurrencies, and private credit, which have become more prominent in a low liquidity environment [16][17] - Historical data shows that SPACs have underperformed compared to small-cap stocks, raising concerns about the sustainability of returns in these less transparent markets [16][17]

在此前数周，围绕财政可持续性的担忧曾引发超长期国债剧烈波动。彭博称，随着收益率回落至接近1月初、即高市早苗突袭选举消息首次被报道时的水 平，市场对"尾部风险"的定价出现收敛。 这一轮下行集中体现在长端，30年期与40年期收益率的快速回落，反映出资金重新向期限更长、对财政预期更敏感的品种回流。 政策信号更克制，减税与发债担忧暂缓 彭博称，债市对高市早苗胜选的解读之一是，政治结果可能带来更清晰的政策路径，从而降低财政政策走向极端情形的概率。 在表态层面，高市早苗一方面承认市场对食品消费税减税的担忧，另一方面强调财政省不会通过发行新债来填补支出缺口，转而将审视补贴、特别税制与非 税收入，以寻找她所称"可持续"的资金来源。 日本超长期国债在大选后继续走强，高市早苗对食品消费税削减计划的谨慎表态缓解了投资者对财政政策的担忧，推动收益率进一步回落。 据彭博报道，40年期日本国债收益率下行10个基点，30年期收益率下行9.5个基点，回落至接近1月初水平，延续了选后反弹。 市场反应的关键在于高市早苗的最新表态。她在胜选后的首次记者会上提及市场对食品消费税两年减税计划的关注，并谈及提高国防和战略产业支出的目 标，但并未就下调食 ...

尽管网易四季度业绩疲软，低于市场预期，但摩根大通认为公司实际经营表现远好于账面数据所呈现的水平。 网易公布2025年第四季度财报，营收同比增长仅3%，净利润更是同比下降27%，双双低于彭博一致预期约4%和23%，这直接导致港股股价盘前 承压， 开盘下挫4%。 但摩根大通发表研报指出，《燕云十六声》等新游戏的强劲现金流水已反映在合同负债中，而非经常性损失掩盖了核心营业利润的出色表现。 此外随着《遗忘之海》和《无限大》等重磅新游上线，预计将推动2026-2027年游戏收入实现13%的年复合增长率。摩根大通维持对网易的"增 持"评级，目标价295港元（190美元），基于2026年预测市盈率13倍的估值具有吸引力。 真实现金流水远超账面收入 研报指出，市场对网易收入的失望主要源于Q4网游收入仅同比增长4%，且环比下降了7%。这很容易被解读为增长乏力。 例如《蛋仔派对》和《第五人格》的排名和流水均出现下滑，但这部分归因于暑假季节性因素消退。 净利润同比下降27%，比起彭博一致预期低了23%，这个数字确实吓人。但这并非网易的业务出了问题，而是因为投资账面浮亏。 摩根大通指出，Q4网易确认了高达22亿元人民币的权益投资及汇 ...

美光高管在行业会议上就下一代高带宽内存芯片的竞争力发表积极表态，缓解了市场对其在HBM4领域落后竞争对手的担忧。这一表态叠加华尔街分析师上 调目标价，推动存储芯片板块整体走强。 隔夜，美光首席财务官Mark Murphy在会议上表示，公司已开始HBM4芯片的量产和出货。"我们对HBM表现感到非常兴奋，"Murphy说。这一表态直接回应 了市场对美光在HBM4竞争中可能落后于SK海力士和三星电子的疑虑。 摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore周三将美光目标价从350美元大幅上调至450美元，维持增持评级。Moore指出，虽然SK海力士将在今年第一季度向英伟达供 应HBM4产品，但美光应能从第二季度开始实现同样目标。 HBM4是新一代高带宽内存技术，对于支持英伟达等厂商的前沿AI芯片至关重要。此前市场担心美光可能在这一领域被韩国竞争对手抢占先机，影响其在高 利润率产品市场的份额。 摩根士丹利的Moore在研究报告中指出，SK海力士虽将在第一季度向英伟达供应HBM4，但美光从第二季度开始也能实现供货，时间差距并不显著。 Moore预计，第一季度将出现新一轮大幅涨价，且2026年的供应增长几乎无法缓解预期中的严重短 ...

Core Insights - Vertiv has reported an exceptional quarterly performance driven by a surge in organic orders, which increased by 252% year-over-year and 117% quarter-over-quarter, leading to a backlog of $15 billion, more than double the previous year [2][4][19] - The company has provided an ambitious financial outlook for 2026, projecting adjusted diluted EPS of $6.02, representing a 43% increase, and organic sales growth of 28% to approximately $13.5 billion [5][6][30] - The management emphasized that the data center construction supercycle is still in its early stages, and Vertiv's market position is strengthening [2][4] Order Growth - The organic order volume for Q4 2025 reached a staggering 252% year-over-year, with a book-to-bill ratio of 2.9, indicating strong demand [4][19] - The backlog has reached $15 billion, reflecting a robust market confidence in Vertiv's delivery capabilities [4][19] - CEO Gio Albertazzi dismissed concerns about potential irregularities in order patterns, asserting that the large orders are a result of customer trust in Vertiv's capabilities [4][19] 2026 Financial Guidance - Vertiv expects adjusted diluted EPS for 2026 to be $6.02, indicating a 43% growth, with organic sales projected to grow by 28% [5][6][30] - The Americas market is anticipated to be the primary growth engine, with an expected sales growth rate of over 30% [7][30] - The company plans to increase capital expenditures from 2%-3% of sales to 3%-4% by 2026 to support this growth [8][20] Regional Performance - The Americas region showed a remarkable organic growth of 46% in 2025, while EMEA experienced a 14% decline, though signs of recovery are noted [7][18][30] - Management expressed optimism about the EMEA market, likening its recovery to a spring being released, indicating improved market sentiment [7][18] - The Asia-Pacific region saw a 9% decline, but growth is expected to accelerate in India and other areas [18][30] Technology and Market Position - Vertiv defended its position in thermal management, emphasizing the continued necessity of CDU (Cooling Distribution Unit) despite advancements in chip temperature tolerance [7][8] - The company is focusing on expanding its capacity and enhancing its product offerings, including integrated solutions like OneCore and SmartRun [21][22] - The service segment is a key competitive advantage, with lifecycle service orders growing over 25% year-over-year [23][86] Operational Strategy - Vertiv plans to cease quarterly reporting of actual orders and backlog data, opting to disclose this information annually to reduce volatility and focus on long-term delivery capabilities [8][9][19] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and collaborating closely with suppliers to manage material inflation pressures [20][30] - The management is confident in converting the backlog into revenue and EPS growth, with a focus on operational efficiency and strategic investments [30][54]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index rising over 1%, driven by significant gains in computing power hardware stocks such as CPO and optical chips, with Tianfu Communication increasing by over 10% [1] - The Hong Kong market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1% and tech stocks declining, including NetEase which fell by 5% [1][3] Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.10% to 4127.79, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.48% to 14228.82, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.16% to 3322.67 [2] - The Hang Seng Index was reported at 27046.41, down by 0.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.51% to 5416.91 [4][3] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with lithium carbonate increasing by over 3%, while platinum and palladium saw declines [2][5] - The lithium carbonate price rose by 3.83% to 149,660, and nickel increased by 2.75% to 140,930 [6] AI and Technology Sector - The AI application concept stocks continued to adjust collectively, while AI model stocks like Zhipu and MiniMax-WP saw gains [1] - Zhipu announced a price increase of 30% for its AI coding subscription plan, and it is set to launch a new AI model, GLM-5, aimed at complex programming tasks [7][9] CPO Sector - The CPO sector showed strong performance with stocks like Tianfu Communication, Juguang Technology, and Zhishang Technology rising over 10%, reaching historical highs [10][11] - Lumentum reported receiving several hundred million dollars in CPO-related orders, with expected revenue of approximately $50 million by Q4 2026 [11] Tungsten Sector - The tungsten sector remained strong, with stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten hitting the daily limit, and prices for black tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate rising significantly [12][13] Currency Market - The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke the 6.90 mark for the first time since April 2023 [14]

Core Insights - The Chinese AI industry is experiencing an unprecedented wave of flagship model releases, marking a competitive race among major players to convert technological advancements into consumer products [1][10] - The 2026 Spring Festival is anticipated to be a critical period for AI model launches, with multiple companies preparing to unveil significant updates simultaneously [2][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 2025 strategy of DeepSeek's Spring Festival launch has set a precedent, leading other companies to adopt similar tactics for product releases [2] - ByteDance has initiated the competition by launching a trio of models: Seedance 2.0, Seedream 5.0, and Doubao 2.0, with Seedance 2.0 already signaling potential success [2][3] - Alibaba is set to release Qwen 3.5 in mid-February, supported by a substantial customer acquisition incentive of 3 billion yuan [3] - Zhiyu has introduced GLM-5, expanding its parameters from 355 billion to 744 billion [4] - DeepSeek is expected to launch its V4 version in mid-February, focusing on improvements in coding and long prompt handling [6] - MiniMax has recently launched its M2.5 model on the Agent platform [8] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The simultaneous release of multiple models is likely to create a "winner-takes-all" scenario, where underperforming models may face significant disadvantages [10] - The scarcity of attention during the Spring Festival means that labs failing to present credible flagship updates risk being excluded from developers' consideration [12] - DeepSeek's potential release is seen as pivotal, not just for its chatbot capabilities but for the platform economic benefits it may unlock [12] Group 3: Technological Innovations - DeepSeek's new approach, as outlined in its paper on scalable conditional memory, could enhance model efficiency by shifting expensive computations to cheaper retrieval operations [12][14] - If successful, this could transform AI from an expensive "toy" into an affordable "tool," facilitating broader integration into high-frequency consumer products [14] Group 4: Beneficiaries and Implications - Tencent is projected to be the biggest beneficiary of the model competition, leveraging its high-frequency communication platforms, WeChat and QQ, to enhance user experience through improved model performance [15][16] - For Alibaba and Baidu, while stronger models could enhance user experience, they may also face pricing pressures if DeepSeek instigates a price war in the API service market [17] - Vertical giants like Trip.com, Beike, and Kuaishou stand to benefit from powerful open-source models that lower technical barriers and accelerate product iteration [17] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the excitement in the capital markets, there is a cautious sentiment regarding the actual performance of consumer-facing AI models, with large-scale user testing during the Spring Festival seen as a critical evaluation point [18][19] - The true signal of adoption will be whether major players integrate AI as a default feature in high-frequency interfaces, which would drive sustained demand for reasoning capabilities [19] Group 6: Valuation and Long-term Perspective - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for model developers Zhiyu and MiniMax, with target prices set at 400 HKD and 700 HKD respectively, based on a 30x P/E ratio for 2030 [21]

Core Viewpoint - Despite delivering strong financial results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, AppLovin's stock price fell significantly due to market concerns about AI's impact on game development and competition from tech giants [2][5]. Financial Performance - AppLovin reported Q4 revenue of $1.66 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.6 billion; EPS was $3.24, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.95 [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.4 billion, up 82% year-over-year, with an impressive EBITDA margin of 84% [4][14]. - For Q1 2026, the company expects revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion, indicating a 5% to 7% sequential growth, with EBITDA margin expected to remain at 84% [4][16]. Market Concerns - Analysts expressed concerns regarding AI tools like Google's "Project Genie" potentially disrupting the gaming industry and competition from Meta in the advertising space [5]. - AppLovin's CEO Adam Foroughi countered these fears by highlighting the company's strong operational performance driven by its own AI models, asserting a disconnect between market sentiment and business reality [5][10]. Competitive Landscape - Foroughi argued that increased competition, including from Meta, could actually benefit AppLovin by expanding the overall market rather than diminishing its share [6][11]. - The CEO emphasized that the company's unique business model allows it to thrive in a competitive environment, as it charges a fee on winning bids rather than competing for low-value impressions [6][11]. E-commerce Expansion - AppLovin is expanding into e-commerce, with a self-service platform launched in Q4, showing substantial growth in existing customer spending [7][38]. - A case study highlighted a client that grew revenue from $4 million to $16 million using AppLovin's platform, showcasing the company's ability to support small businesses [7][38]. Capital Allocation and Stock Buybacks - The company executed an aggressive stock buyback strategy, repurchasing approximately $2.58 billion worth of shares in 2025, with $2.5 billion in cash remaining on its balance sheet [7][15]. - Foroughi expressed confidence in the company's long-term growth potential, stating that if the market undervalues its stock, the company will focus on execution and let results speak over time [7][15].

马斯克不仅要在软件层面通过"Macrohard"项目实现全自动化办公以挑战微软，更在硬件层面规划了月 球制造基地，试图通过"天基算力"解决AI能耗瓶颈。 当地时间周二晚间，xAI罕见地在X平台上公开了一段长达45分钟的全员会议视频。马斯克在会上正式 确立了公司新的四大业务支柱，并详细阐述了名为"Macrohard"的项目愿景。此次会议不仅确认了公司 在与SpaceX合并后的组织架构剧变，更披露了详细的产品路线图及财务里程碑。 此外，联合创始人Guodong Zhang的职权得到显著提升，他不仅领导代码和图像生成功能的团队，还负 责监管社交媒体服务X的领导团队。另一位联合创始人Manuel Kroiss则与Zhang共同领导代码团队。 月球工厂与电磁弹射：星际算力野心 这四个团队分别是： 其中，"Macrohard"项目尤为引人关注。该项目名称显然是针对微软（Microsoft）的文字游戏（Macro对 Micro，Hard对Soft），由联合创始人Toby Pohlen领导。马斯克将该项目描述为"数字人类模拟"，其核 心目标是让AI能够"做任何人类使用计算机能做的事情"。其野心在于彻底的白领工作自动化。项目负 ...

芝加哥加密货币借贷机构BlockFills在市场剧烈波动中按下"暂停键"，引发市场对流动性危机的担忧。 机构客户承压与巨头背书 BlockFills并非面向散户的小型平台，其业务动荡直接影响的是加密货币市场的"鲸鱼"们。 据其网站显示，该公司为约2000家机构客户提供流动性和借贷服务，其中包括专注于加密货币的对冲基金和资产管 理公司。其期权产品的门槛极高，仅向持有1000万美元以上数字货币资产的投资者开放。 就在2025年，该公司的交易量还高达600亿美元。自2018年成立以来，BlockFills的扩张一直得到重量级资本的支 持，包括海纳国际集团（Susquehanna）以及全球最大衍生品交易所CME的企业风险投资部门。 面对此次危机，CME拒绝置评，Susquehanna也未立即回应关于暂停提款的置评请求。这种沉默加剧了市场对于危机 蔓延的担忧。 据英国《金融时报》最新报道，加密货币借贷及流动性提供商BlockFills已暂停客户提款并限制平台交易，这一举动 凸显了近期数字资产市场动荡对机构层面的剧烈冲击。 这家总部位于芝加哥的公司在上周实施了暂停客户存款和取款的措施，截至目前该限制仍未解除。虽然客户仍被 ...