当模型不再稀缺，真正稀缺的，是能把模型变成现金流的能力。 据追风交易台消息，2月9日，摩根大通证券（中国）发布研究报告《中国人工智能行业：全球布局与模型创新驱动新一代领军者》，首次覆盖中 国独立大模型厂商智谱与MiniMax。 报告开宗明义：中国人工智能行业正从"百模大战"阶段，迈向以商业化落地能力、模型创新实力及全球化布局为决定成败之关键的阶段。中国AI 市场正在迅速整合，"具备实力且资金充足的模型开发商数量已从超200家缩减至不足10家。" 摩根大通犀利指出，国内AI行业最大的利润池恐将流向掌握分发的平台巨头；而独立厂商的突围，则取决于谁能通过"结构性中立"找到生存缝隙 ——智谱向内深耕高合规的本地化部署，MiniMax向外拓展高溢价的全球市场。 这一判断的背景并不复杂。报告指出，随着模型训练成本、算力获取门槛和商业化难度持续上升，资本与算力的硬约束开始主导行业结构。换句 话说，行业已经不再奖励"能不能做模型"，而是奖励"能不能长期活下来"。 在摩根大通看来，这一阶段的核心变化在于：模型能力逐步趋同；资金消耗呈指数级上升；客户开始更关注"交付能力、稳定性与可持续性"。 | | | 市值 | | | 评级 ...

据华尔街日报周一报道，摩根士丹利资深投行家Michael Grimes本周宣布重返华尔街，将以投资银行业 务主席身份主导SpaceX的首次公开募股——这可能成为有史以来规模最大的IPO。这位曾帮助马斯克将 特斯拉带上市的银行家，去年离开摩根士丹利加入没过商务部，如今在SpaceX上市窗口开启之际选择 回归。 摩根士丹利周一在内部备忘录中宣布Grimes将重返公司，职位从此前的全球科技投行业务主管升任投资 银行业务主席。这一时机颇为关键——SpaceX上周与马斯克旗下人工智能初创公司xAI合并后，估值飙 升至1.25万亿美元。 SpaceX预计将通过IPO融资数百亿美元，用于在太空建设数据中心和月球殖民计划。据接近该公司的人 士透露，若融资规模达到400亿美元，参与承销的十余家银行预计将分享约4亿美元的承销费用。摩根士 丹利、美国银行、摩根大通和高盛预计将担任四家主承销商，获得最大份额。 Grimes的回归意味着他将有机会分享这笔潜在的巨额收益，而非继续留在政府部门旁观这场盛宴。 与马斯克建立深厚联系 Grimes在摩根士丹利工作近三十年，与马斯克建立了深厚联系。据一位同时认识两人的SpaceX投资者 称，Gr ...

Apollo Global Management正把私募信贷的触角伸向AI算力资产，通过"买芯片再出租"的结构化融资， 为xAI这类高资本开支项目提供现金流缓冲，也为投资者打开一条以硬件为底层资产的收益路径。 据The Information援引知情人士报道，Apollo接近达成一笔约34亿美元的贷款安排，资金将投向一只投 资载体，该载体计划购买Nvidia芯片并租赁给Elon Musk旗下xAI，交易最快可能在本周敲定。 在这一背景下，通过载体购置芯片并出租，能够把部分一次性资本开支转化为持续性租赁成本，从而缓 解短期现金压力。 Musk在为xAI筹资方面并未遭遇太大阻力。The Information称，该公司上月表示在一轮单独融资中筹得 200亿美元，较最初预期多出50亿美元。 知情人士称，Apollo对本次交易的同意发生在Musk决定将xAI与SpaceX合并之前。 回报假设：基准情景年化回报超过22%，下行情景约17% Apollo为该投资工具提供的债务预计将收取9.5%的利率。据知情人士透露，Apollo还计划将部分债务出 售给其他机构，并协助出售该工具的股权部分。 这将是Apollo第二次对面向 ...

Core Insights - The narrative of "SaaSification" in the software industry is being fundamentally challenged by the rapid evolution of generative AI, leading to a reassessment of the standard SaaS model [1][2] - The high valuation premiums previously enjoyed by SaaS companies are diminishing as the market shifts focus from revenue growth to immediate cash flow and profitability [1][4] Group 1: Valuation Changes - UBS reports that the rapid iteration of large language models (LLMs) is prompting a fundamental reevaluation of the "standardized SaaS" model, with a shift from sales-based valuation to P/E or EV/FCF frameworks [1][7] - The transition in valuation paradigms has resulted in downgrades across the software sector, as companies are forced to provide more customized services, aligning their business models closer to low-margin IT services [2][4] Group 2: Profitability Concerns - Despite increased revenue growth in the Chinese software industry since early 2025, profit margins are declining, indicating that AI-driven demand is not directed towards standardized software products [8][9] - The need for extensive customization to meet vague customer demands is leading to a situation where revenue growth does not translate into profit margin expansion, potentially dragging down profitability [8][9] Group 3: Challenges in AI Monetization - UBS identifies three key bottlenecks in software companies' ability to monetize AI: insufficient AI capabilities, an immature digital ecosystem, and credibility issues regarding AI expertise compared to startups and cloud vendors [9][10] - The rapid release of new AI models every 2-3 months necessitates faster iteration and delivery from software companies, which complicates standardization and profit margin expansion [10]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart aims to achieve global sales of over 400 million units across all IP and product categories by 2025, with the "THE MONSTERS" category expected to exceed 100 million units [1] Group 1: 2025 Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing a typical "single super IP + category breakthrough" growth model, with revenue expected to expand nearly threefold year-on-year, driven primarily by the global popularity of Labubu and significant monetization efficiency from plush toys [1] - HSBC's analyst Lina Yan predicts that while the hyper-growth from Labubu will fade, the platform's capabilities will persist, marking 2026 as a year for "re-establishing the baseline" [1] - UBS believes that the data alleviates market concerns regarding reliance on a single hit product, with new IP Twinkle showing strong initial performance in early 2026, providing a window for continued growth [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - HSBC has lowered its revenue and profit growth forecasts for 2026, citing a decline in member repurchase intensity and growth rate, while emphasizing that valuations have already accounted for IP lifecycle risks [2] - The company’s revenue growth in 2025 is expected to be significantly driven by repeat member purchases, with ARPU from repeat members contributing nearly half of the revenue growth in mainland China [3] Group 3: 2026 Growth Framework - HSBC anticipates that the normalization of ARPU for repeat members will shift growth from explosive to a more standard retail expansion trajectory, leading to a reduction in revenue growth forecast from 30.6% to 23.7% for 2026 [4] - The expected revenue growth for 2026 in mainland China is approximately 13.0%, while overseas growth is projected at around 35.7%, with a focus on expanding retail POS locations [4] Group 4: Execution Risks and Market Dynamics - The risks identified are primarily execution-related, including supply chain issues, price inflation from scalpers, and competition, which could impact the brand and sales [5] - HSBC notes that the market has already begun to price in the lifecycle risks associated with Labubu, with a significant drop in forward PE ratios despite a rise in forward EPS [6] Group 5: New IP and Market Validation - The success of new IPs like Twinkle and their interaction with overseas markets will be critical for sustaining growth post-Labubu, with initial sales figures indicating strong performance [6][7] - Both HSBC and UBS view upcoming quarterly sales data as crucial for validating market performance, particularly in the U.S., and emphasize the importance of sustainable membership management and product expansion [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese yuan has returned to an appreciation trend, with the USD/CNY midpoint reaching a new low since May 2023 at 6.9523, approaching the critical level of 6.95 [1][10]. - The appreciation of the yuan began to accelerate in December last year, with a monthly increase of approximately 900 pips, followed by an additional 500 pips in January [2]. - The yuan's appreciation characteristics can be summarized as "self-driven," where the yuan gains momentum when the US dollar index declines, and experiences limited adjustments when the index rises [4][6]. Group 2 - The USD/CNY midpoint has been on a downward trend for eight consecutive months since the peak of the trade war in April last year, returning to a trajectory that aligns with market appreciation rates [5]. - There is a consensus among enterprises to adjust their currency exchange strategies flexibly, moving away from fixed points to follow market trends [7]. - Potential risks before and after the Spring Festival include supply-demand imbalances due to pre-holiday settlement pressures, with the possibility of the USD/CNY rate dropping to the 6.9 level [8]. Group 3 - Key data releases, including January's non-farm payrolls and CPI, could catalyze market movements, especially with the upcoming long Spring Festival holiday, which may increase volatility [8]. - The article notes that the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, lasting nine days, could yield a carry return of 50 pips, leading to speculative trading that may amplify market fluctuations [8][10]. - The article concludes that the appreciation of the yuan may not be over before the Spring Festival, and that adjusting exchange rates at higher levels is a reasonable strategy [10].

AI应用概念股持续拉升，此前字节旗下Seedance2.0视频模型进行内测，小云雀app可体验Seedance2.0 （限免次数3次），Seedance2.0fast即将上线。 2月10日，A股震荡走高，三大股指盘初小幅上涨，AI应用概念股持续拉升，算力硬件股早盘活跃，光 伏产业链调整。港股高开高走，恒指、恒科指双双涨超1%，科网股全线反弹，阿里涨近3%。 债市方面，国债期货震荡盘整。商品方面，国内商品期货分化，沪银、沪锡等金属期货走高，多晶硅、 工业硅等下跌。核心市场走势： | 什么样 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 淵跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4130.99 | 7.90 | 0.19% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 14222.99 | 14.55 | 0.10% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3333.34 | 0.57 | 0.02% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 4724.03 | 4.97 | 0.11% | | 000016 | FiFF ...

硅谷的炸鸡店里，或许没有精致的餐具，但却盛放着数千亿美元的生意。 据韩国媒体报道，当地时间2月5日，正在美国访问的SK集团会长崔泰元与英伟达CEO黄仁勋，在硅谷 的一家名为"99 Chicken"的韩式炸鸡店中进行了一场非正式的"炸鸡啤酒（Chimaek）会谈"。 观察人士称，双方的讨论内容可能不仅限于第六代高带宽内存（HBM4）的供应量谈判，还包括在构建 下一代AI数据中心方面的战略合作。 这是SK集团以HBM为杠杆，正式进军下一代AI基础设施市场的信号。 HBM4供应格局，SK海力士承诺无障碍交付 此次会晤的焦点在于HBM4的供应保障。英伟达下半年将推出的下一代AI加速器"Vera Rubin"将采用每 片288吉字节容量的HBM4。 由于HBM生产需约4个月，加上台积电封装的2至3个月，整个周期长达6至7个月，这使得英伟达对拥有 行业最大产能的SK海力士依赖程度加深。 SK海力士去年底与英伟达达成协议，将供应HBM4需求量的55%以上，目前正在进行性能优化。崔泰 元在会面中向黄仁勋承诺"无障碍供应"。 据报道，SK海力士的HBM4虽采用12纳米晶圆代工和1b DRAM等相对落后一代的工艺，但性能表现与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guosheng Securities analysts argues that market concerns regarding CPO technology replacing pluggable optical modules are based on a misunderstanding of industry fundamentals, leading to irrational market valuations [1] Group 1: CPO vs. Pluggable Modules - CPO and pluggable optical modules are not mutually exclusive but can develop in parallel, with pluggable modules remaining the mainstream solution for "scale-out" interconnections in data centers for the next two to three years [2] - CPO technology is primarily suited for "scale-up" scenarios within cabinets, promoted by chip manufacturers like Nvidia, and is not intended to replace existing market solutions [2] - CSP manufacturers are not planning large-scale deployments of CPO technology, indicating that pluggable modules will continue to dominate the market [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Technology Barriers - Concerns about ecosystem exclusion, where chip manufacturers and TSMC collaborate on CPO technology while excluding optical module manufacturers, are unfounded [3] - The dependency of CPO technology on silicon photonics capabilities actually strengthens the competitive position of leading optical module manufacturers, who have already invested in relevant technology [3] Group 3: Market Structure and Trading Dynamics - Recent volatility in the optical module sector is attributed to a concentrated trading structure that requires time for optimization and self-correction [4] - Strong fundamentals have led to high visibility in the performance of optical module manufacturers, attracting significant institutional investment and resulting in concentrated holdings [4] - The rapid influx of capital has created instability in holdings, making them sensitive to negative news and market shifts, which can exacerbate stock price volatility [5][6] - The sector is expected to stabilize as the performance of optical module manufacturers is gradually released, leading to a more convergent understanding of the market [6]

特朗普把美联储主席人选与"15%经济增长"直接挂钩，释放出对更宽松货币政策的强烈偏好，同时沃什 上任后的政策表现将被置于极高的政治与市场预期之下。 据彭博，特朗普在接受Fox Business采访时表示，如果其提名的沃什获确认并"做到了他有能力做到的工 作"，美国经济"可以增长15%，我认为甚至更高"。相关采访片段于周一播出，完整版预计周二播出。 对市场而言，15%的增长目标本身极为激进，其更现实的含义在于，特朗普希望沃什通过降息在中期选 举前为经济加速，同时对通胀再抬头的担忧显著降低。 但沃什能否尽快走马上任仍存变数，参议员Thom Tillis已表示，在特朗普政府继续推进对鲍威尔的调查 期间，将阻止任何美联储人事确认。 "15%增长"目标：远超目前主流预期 特朗普在采访中称，沃什在其上一次遴选美联储主席时是"第二人选"，并强调沃什"会很伟大，是高质 量的人"。但他提出的15%增长目标，远高于当前主流预期。 彭博指出，特朗普公开推动更低利率，并打破数十年来的惯例，对美联储独立性提出质疑。这一背景意 味着，即便沃什最终获确认，其政策空间也将处于更强的政治聚光灯下。 确认程序的不确定性：Thom Tillis的 ...