AI应用概念股持续拉升，此前字节旗下Seedance2.0视频模型进行内测，小云雀app可体验Seedance2.0 （限免次数3次），Seedance2.0fast即将上线。 2月10日，A股震荡走高，三大股指盘初小幅上涨，AI应用概念股持续拉升，算力硬件股早盘活跃，光 伏产业链调整。港股高开高走，恒指、恒科指双双涨超1%，科网股全线反弹，阿里涨近3%。 债市方面，国债期货震荡盘整。商品方面，国内商品期货分化，沪银、沪锡等金属期货走高，多晶硅、 工业硅等下跌。核心市场走势： | 什么样 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 淵跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4130.99 | 7.90 | 0.19% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 14222.99 | 14.55 | 0.10% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3333.34 | 0.57 | 0.02% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 4724.03 | 4.97 | 0.11% | | 000016 | FiFF ...

硅谷的炸鸡店里，或许没有精致的餐具，但却盛放着数千亿美元的生意。 据韩国媒体报道，当地时间2月5日，正在美国访问的SK集团会长崔泰元与英伟达CEO黄仁勋，在硅谷 的一家名为"99 Chicken"的韩式炸鸡店中进行了一场非正式的"炸鸡啤酒（Chimaek）会谈"。 观察人士称，双方的讨论内容可能不仅限于第六代高带宽内存（HBM4）的供应量谈判，还包括在构建 下一代AI数据中心方面的战略合作。 这是SK集团以HBM为杠杆，正式进军下一代AI基础设施市场的信号。 HBM4供应格局，SK海力士承诺无障碍交付 此次会晤的焦点在于HBM4的供应保障。英伟达下半年将推出的下一代AI加速器"Vera Rubin"将采用每 片288吉字节容量的HBM4。 由于HBM生产需约4个月，加上台积电封装的2至3个月，整个周期长达6至7个月，这使得英伟达对拥有 行业最大产能的SK海力士依赖程度加深。 SK海力士去年底与英伟达达成协议，将供应HBM4需求量的55%以上，目前正在进行性能优化。崔泰 元在会面中向黄仁勋承诺"无障碍供应"。 据报道，SK海力士的HBM4虽采用12纳米晶圆代工和1b DRAM等相对落后一代的工艺，但性能表现与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guosheng Securities analysts argues that market concerns regarding CPO technology replacing pluggable optical modules are based on a misunderstanding of industry fundamentals, leading to irrational market valuations [1] Group 1: CPO vs. Pluggable Modules - CPO and pluggable optical modules are not mutually exclusive but can develop in parallel, with pluggable modules remaining the mainstream solution for "scale-out" interconnections in data centers for the next two to three years [2] - CPO technology is primarily suited for "scale-up" scenarios within cabinets, promoted by chip manufacturers like Nvidia, and is not intended to replace existing market solutions [2] - CSP manufacturers are not planning large-scale deployments of CPO technology, indicating that pluggable modules will continue to dominate the market [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Technology Barriers - Concerns about ecosystem exclusion, where chip manufacturers and TSMC collaborate on CPO technology while excluding optical module manufacturers, are unfounded [3] - The dependency of CPO technology on silicon photonics capabilities actually strengthens the competitive position of leading optical module manufacturers, who have already invested in relevant technology [3] Group 3: Market Structure and Trading Dynamics - Recent volatility in the optical module sector is attributed to a concentrated trading structure that requires time for optimization and self-correction [4] - Strong fundamentals have led to high visibility in the performance of optical module manufacturers, attracting significant institutional investment and resulting in concentrated holdings [4] - The rapid influx of capital has created instability in holdings, making them sensitive to negative news and market shifts, which can exacerbate stock price volatility [5][6] - The sector is expected to stabilize as the performance of optical module manufacturers is gradually released, leading to a more convergent understanding of the market [6]

特朗普把美联储主席人选与"15%经济增长"直接挂钩，释放出对更宽松货币政策的强烈偏好，同时沃什 上任后的政策表现将被置于极高的政治与市场预期之下。 据彭博，特朗普在接受Fox Business采访时表示，如果其提名的沃什获确认并"做到了他有能力做到的工 作"，美国经济"可以增长15%，我认为甚至更高"。相关采访片段于周一播出，完整版预计周二播出。 对市场而言，15%的增长目标本身极为激进，其更现实的含义在于，特朗普希望沃什通过降息在中期选 举前为经济加速，同时对通胀再抬头的担忧显著降低。 但沃什能否尽快走马上任仍存变数，参议员Thom Tillis已表示，在特朗普政府继续推进对鲍威尔的调查 期间，将阻止任何美联储人事确认。 "15%增长"目标：远超目前主流预期 特朗普在采访中称，沃什在其上一次遴选美联储主席时是"第二人选"，并强调沃什"会很伟大，是高质 量的人"。但他提出的15%增长目标，远高于当前主流预期。 彭博指出，特朗普公开推动更低利率，并打破数十年来的惯例，对美联储独立性提出质疑。这一背景意 味着，即便沃什最终获确认，其政策空间也将处于更强的政治聚光灯下。 确认程序的不确定性：Thom Tillis的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Credo has significantly raised its revenue guidance due to explosive demand for AI infrastructure, with expected revenues far exceeding Wall Street's most optimistic estimates, leading to a surge in stock price after hours [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 of FY2026 (ending January 31, 2026), Credo expects revenues between $404 million and $408 million, which is substantially higher than the previous guidance of $335 million to $345 million and well above the consensus estimate of $341.2 million [1][5]. - The midpoint of the new revenue guidance represents a 19% increase compared to the previous midpoint [5]. - The company anticipates a mid-single-digit sequential growth in Q4, projecting over 200% year-over-year growth for FY2026 [1][9]. Market Position and Demand - Credo's growth is driven by the urgent demand for high-speed, energy-efficient connectivity products in AI data centers, particularly through its innovative AEC (Active Electrical Cable) technology [9][10]. - The company holds a leading position in the AEC market, which is crucial for high-speed data transmission within AI data centers [9]. Clientele and Industry Trends - Major clients include tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and xAI, reflecting strong demand for Credo's products due to their significant investments in AI infrastructure [10]. - The market is optimistic about the AI-driven growth potential, with analysts noting Credo's high gross margin of nearly 67% and return on assets exceeding 20% [11]. Analyst Ratings - Needham maintains a "Buy" rating on Credo, listing it as a "Top Pick" for 2026 with a target price of $220, citing the increasing adoption of AEC technology and new product launches as key growth drivers [11]. - Conversely, Rosenblatt Securities adopts a more cautious stance with a "Neutral" rating and a target price of $170, highlighting valuation risks [11].

隔夜美国软件股集体反弹，华尔街分析师集中发声驳斥人工智能将颠覆软件行业的"末日论"，称市场过度悲观。甲骨文等龙头股大幅反弹，科技巨头加码资 本支出的承诺也提振了投资者信心。 软件板块整体走强，iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF周一上涨3%，此前该ETF已较高点暴跌约28%，市场担忧AI将接管软件传统职能并颠覆其收 入模式。Wedbush Securities分析师Dan Ives称近期软件股"末日"叙事"极度夸张"，并将Salesforce和ServiceNow加入该机构AI 30榜单。 甲骨文股价一度飙升12%，创9月10日以来最大盘中涨幅，收涨近10%。D.A. Davidson分析师Gil Luria将该股评级从中性上调至买入，并直言"软件并未死 亡"，称企业将继续为甲骨文产品付费，"不会被随意编码替代"。 此外，亚马逊承诺今年在数据中心、芯片等设备上投入2000亿美元，这一表态帮助缓解了市场对AI威胁的担忧。部分投资者押注，亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta 和微软等公司合计约6500亿美元的AI工具支出，至少有一部分将流向软件企业。 华尔街集中反击"末 ...

Core Insights - The demand for gas turbines is surging due to increased electricity needs driven by AI data centers, leading to a competitive "booking war" for manufacturing slots [1][6] - GE Vernova's stock has seen a remarkable increase of over 500% since its spin-off from GE Aerospace in early 2024, reaching a new high recently [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Maxim Power has signed a sales reservation agreement with GE Vernova to secure a manufacturing slot for a 7HA.02 gas turbine, requiring a non-refundable deposit by 2026 [3] - The current market conditions reflect a strong supplier position, with GE Vernova's CEO projecting a backlog of orders reaching 100 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the year, indicating that production capacity for 2029 and 2030 is nearly sold out [4][6] Group 2: Capacity Constraints - GE Vernova's backlog of gas power orders has reached 83 GW, while the company's annual production capacity is only 20 GW, indicating that existing orders will fill production lines for over four years [5] - Recent strategic alliances, such as the one with Xcel for five F-class gas turbines, suggest that new orders continue to flow in, further straining capacity [5] Group 3: Demand Drivers - The rapid growth in electricity demand is primarily attributed to energy-intensive AI data centers, which require stable and large-scale power supplies, making gas turbines essential for supporting AI infrastructure [6] - Gas power generation offers continuous power supply compared to the intermittent nature of renewable energy, which is crucial for data center operations [6] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The supply-demand imbalance is translating into pricing power for GE Vernova, with Wall Street analysts doubling their EBITDA expectations for 2030 to approximately $17 billion, up from around $9 billion a year ago [7] - GE Vernova's stock performance reflects market confidence, with a 102% increase over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices showed minimal movement [7]

全球钻石巨头戴比尔斯（De Beers）的所有权归属正迎来历史性转折！随着全球钻石市场在需求疲软与 人造钻石冲击下陷入寒冬，其多数股权持有者英美资源集团（Anglo American）正加速推进出售计划， 而最终买家极大概率将是由非洲主权政府与私人资本组成的财团。 2月9日，据英国金融时报消息，英美资源集团首席执行官Duncan Wanblad表示，尽管钻石市场持续恶 化，公司仍希望在今年内完成戴比尔斯的出售。他透露，出售进程"相对进展顺利"，"几乎可以肯 定"博茨瓦纳政府将在公司中获得更大的所有权份额。 报道称，这笔交易正处于第二阶段竞标的尾声，买家"很可能是一个联合体"，由政府和私人实体共同组 成。除博茨瓦纳外，安哥拉政府已表示有意收购20-30%的股份，纳米比亚也在权衡是否竞购少数股 权。 受人造钻石竞争加剧以及美国对印度抛光钻石加征关税等多重因素打击，英美资源集团本月已发出预 警，可能被迫连续第三年减记戴比尔斯的资产价值。尽管分析师质疑此时正处于市场底部，但英美资源 集团管理层坚持认为，剥离这一表现挣扎的钻石资产是保障股东回报的最佳路径。 多国政府争夺钻石资产 博茨瓦纳政府在这场出售博弈中占据着举足轻 ...

美股科技股继续反弹，投资者在AI担忧与买入机会间权衡。 （周一美股基准股指日内走势） 周一美股延续了上周五的反弹势头，标普500指数重新逼近历史高点，纳斯达克100指数收盘上涨0.8%，重新站上关键的100日移动均线。 上周五道指飙升逾1200点，首次突破50000点关口，标普500指数收复周内跌幅。投资者似乎将上周的抛售视为"过度反应"和买入良机，在市场波 动时刻买入的资金再次大举入场。 但投资者的根本担忧并未消散，AI投资能否带来预期利润的怀疑依然存在。在上周五的大涨中，亚马逊仍下跌5.6%，市值蒸发约1330亿美元。 Alphabet股价也下跌2.5%。 这轮急涨急跌让投资者更加警惕下一个风险点可能出现在哪里。本周即将公布的延迟发布的1月就业报告和最新通胀数据，可能进一步影响利率政 策走向和市场情绪。 科技板块领涨反弹，但AI支出担忧挥之不去 周一科技板块表现尤为强劲，此前被"血洗"的软件板块和芯片板块双双大涨，甲骨文飙升近10%。 （SaaS软件股较低位持续反弹） 美元走软为风险资产和黄金提供了额外支撑，市场情绪在关键经济报告发布前较为乐观。Edward Jones高级全球投资策略师Angelo Ko ...

随着司法部文件披露更多细节，美国商务部长卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）因涉嫌隐瞒与杰弗里·爱泼斯 坦 (Jeffrey Epstein)的过往联系，正面临来自两党议员日益高涨的辞职压力。 面对指控，白宫与商务部采取了防御姿态。白宫发言人Kush Desai表示，特朗普政府组建了"现代史上 最具变革性的内阁"，卢特尼克将继续专注于为美国人民服务。 商务部则在一份声明中将辞职呼声斥为"传统媒体的失败尝试"，旨在转移对政府确保数万亿美元投资等 经济成就的注意力。商务部坚称，卢特尼克夫妇与爱泼斯坦在2005年后的互动"非常有限"。此外，爱泼 斯坦的同谋Ghislaine Maxwell在委员会短暂露面时行使了第五修正案权利，其律师暗示若获特赦才愿配 合调查。 作为特朗普内阁的关键成员，卢特尼克的去留直接关系到现任政府贸易政策的稳定性。尽管白宫目前仍 表示支持，但市场开始关注这一政治丑闻是否会干扰商务部的日常运作及重大经济议程的推进。 众议院监督委员会的介入使局势更加复杂。委员会主席、共和党人James Comer并未排除传唤卢特尼克 作证的可能性，表示有兴趣与任何能提供信息的人交谈。这表明针对卢特尼克过往关 ...