华见早安之声 央行等八部门：未经相关部门同意，境内主体及其控制境外主体不得在境外发行虚拟货币。证监会：明确备案监管要求，六类情形禁止开展业 务。 国常会：加力提效用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 美国消费者信心创六个月新高，逢低买入推动美股反弹，标普涨近2%，创去年5月以来最佳单日涨幅，道指首次突破5万点，罗素2000大涨3.6%。黄仁勋称 AI需求极度高涨，英伟达大涨7%，芯片股指飙升5.7%。软件ETF反弹3.5%。亚马逊绩后跌5.6%、但较昨日盘后跌幅收窄。 美债收益率全线走高，10年期上行近3基点，2年期收益率涨5.54基点。美元日内跌0.3%，但全周收涨0.56%、两周连涨。 在经历了周四的崩盘后，加密货币周五暴力反弹，收复前一日大部分跌幅。比特币价格飙升11%，重回7万美元。以太坊大涨11%，站上2000美元。 金银走V反转。芝商所提保后，白银一度重挫10%，随后较日低飙升20%。现货黄金最终收涨近4%。油价小幅收涨。 亚洲时段，A股三大股指震荡收跌，化工集体拉升掀涨停潮，恒指、恒科 ...

美东时间6日周五接受采访时，美国财政部长贝森特的一系列言论似乎都在和总统特朗普"表忠心"。 贝森特驳斥了关于他与特朗普在美元政策上存在分歧的说法，重申"强美元政策"的核心在于，为美元创 造强劲的经济基本面。他连续第二日澄清最近特朗普威胁起诉美联储主席提名人沃什（Kevin Warsh） 的言论，一再说那是个"玩笑"。 在对待美联储的问题上，贝森特也呼应了特朗普的批评态度，暗示现任美联储主席鲍威尔失职。 贝森特强调，特朗普非常尊重美联储的独立性，沃什将为美联储带来卓越的公信力和专业能力。这一表 态旨在缓解市场对美联储独立性的担忧。鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月到期，目前正遭受司法部调查。 贝森特在访谈中还重点提及"特朗普账户"计划，称该计划"可能成为特朗普最大的政治遗产"。这一旨在 扩大美国民众持股比例的计划将为符合条件的新生儿提供1000美元的种子资金，用于投资追踪标普500 等指数的基金。 贝森特的表态在美元汇率经历近期波动后引发市场关注。1月27日，特朗普曾表示不担心美元贬值，认 为美元"表现很棒"，随后美元指数跌至2022年以来低位。贝森特此次试图厘清政府的美元政策立场。 强美元政策要创造强大背景 本周 ...

美东时间6日周五接受采访时，美国财政部长贝森特的一系列言论似乎都在和总统特朗普"表忠心"。 贝森特驳斥了关于他与特朗普在美元政策上存在分歧的说法，重申"强美元政策"的核心在于，为美元创 造强劲的经济基本面。他连续第二日澄清最近特朗普威胁起诉美联储主席提名人沃什（Kevin Warsh） 的言论，一再说那是个"玩笑"。 在对待美联储的问题上，贝森特也呼应了特朗普的批评态度，暗示现任美联储主席鲍威尔失职。 贝森特强调，特朗普非常尊重美联储的独立性，沃什将为美联储带来卓越的公信力和专业能力。这一表 态旨在缓解市场对美联储独立性的担忧。鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月到期，目前正遭受司法部调查。 贝森特在访谈中还重点提及"特朗普账户"计划，称该计划"可能成为特朗普最大的政治遗产"。这一旨在 扩大美国民众持股比例的计划将为符合条件的新生儿提供1000美元的种子资金，用于投资追踪标普500 等指数的基金。 贝森特的表态在美元汇率经历近期波动后引发市场关注。1月27日，特朗普曾表示不担心美元贬值，认 为美元"表现很棒"，随后美元指数跌至2022年以来低位。贝森特此次试图厘清政府的美元政策立场。 强美元政策要创造强大背景 本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The entry of Hims & Hers Health into the GLP-1 weight loss drug market with a significantly lower-priced generic version of Wegovy is intensifying competition, leading to regulatory scrutiny and impacting the stock performance of Novo Nordisk [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hims & Hers Health launched a generic GLP-1 oral weight loss drug priced at $49 per month, which is one-third of the cost of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, signaling a price war in the GLP-1 market [5][6]. - The FDA's inability to verify the quality, safety, or efficacy of unapproved drugs has been highlighted, coinciding with Hims' market entry [2]. - Analysts suggest that 2026 will be a pivotal year for GLP-1 market pricing, with regulatory attitudes shifting to protect original drug manufacturers [4]. Group 2: Novo Nordisk's Challenges - Novo Nordisk's market capitalization has dropped by over $460 billion since reaching a peak of $659 billion in June 2024, now standing just above $200 billion [6]. - The company has faced its worst annual stock performance in 2025 due to increased competition in the obesity drug market, disappointing clinical trial data, and multiple profit warnings [6][8]. - Despite initially benefiting from the launch of the oral version of Wegovy, the company has struggled with sales forecasts and competition from Hims' lower-priced generic [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk underestimated the intensity and speed of market competition, particularly from major competitor Eli Lilly, which launched its weight loss drug Zepbound in late 2023 [7]. - The emergence of low-cost generics is putting additional pressure on both Novo Nordisk and its competitors [7]. - Analysts have noted that the rapid market penetration of generic drugs is driven by consumer price sensitivity rather than preference, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8].

随着投资者对人工智能（AI）颠覆性影响的担忧升温，美股市场正在经历一场显著的板块轮动。那些 业务模式难以被AI技术取代的公司——具有"抗AI"冲击特性的行业股正成为投资者的"新宠"，此前引领 三年牛市的科技股则面临越来越大的抛压。 截至本周四收盘，标普500指数四日累跌约2%，累跌9.9%的软件股领跌，信息技术（IT）板块累跌 3.9%。而房屋建筑商、运输公司和重型机械制造商录得强劲涨幅，相关行业股分别累涨约6.1%、4.8% 和4.0%，必需消费品板块四日累涨5.2%，有望创2022年以来最佳单周表现。 这一轮动潮流的催化剂是AI初创明星Anthropic推出的新工具，它们加剧了投资者对AI将颠覆现有科技 业务模式的担忧。与此同时，纳入不少制造商和传统经济巨头的道指正在焕发新的吸引力。 周五早盘，三大美股指集体涨超1%。道指在午盘之初一度涨逾1000点、涨幅略超2%，强劲反弹表现强 于标普和科技股集中的纳斯达克100指数，势将创收盘最高纪录，本周得以扭转此前三周连跌的势头， 而纳指将连跌四周，纳斯达克100将连跌两周，上周反弹的标普将回落。 这一转变颠覆了过去三年推动美国股市牛市的核心逻辑。科技股曾因AI将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, stated that market demand is extremely strong and that large-scale AI capital expenditures are appropriate and necessary [1] Group 1 - Nvidia's CEO emphasized the robust demand in the market for AI technologies [1] - The company believes that significant investments in AI infrastructure are both suitable and essential for future growth [1]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant volatility in the tech sector due to concerns over the return on capital investments in artificial intelligence (AI), with major companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle losing a total of approximately $1.35 trillion in market value [1] - Global tech giants are projected to invest around $660 billion in AI-related infrastructure this year, surpassing the GDP of several medium-sized economies, raising investor concerns about potential inefficiencies and overcapacity risks [1] - The sentiment in the market is shifting from a fear of missing out on the AI wave to a focus on evaluating the efficiency of capital expenditures, as highlighted by GAM Investments' Paul Markham [1] Group 2 - Amazon has announced an aggressive capital expenditure plan of $200 billion, representing a 56% year-over-year increase, which is the highest among major cloud service providers, but has raised investor concerns about short-term return visibility [4] - In contrast to Amazon, Apple has adopted a more cautious approach to AI capital spending, which has been positively received by the market, with its stock price increasing by 7% due to strong demand for the iPhone [4] - The market is undergoing a systematic reassessment of high capital expenditure models, with expectations that stock prices of related companies will continue to experience volatility and pressure as doubts about the sustainability and return paths of AI investments deepen [5]

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 57.3，预期 55，前值 56.4。 美国2月密歇根大学消费者现况指 数初值 58.3，预期 53.7，前值 55.4。 美国2月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值 3.5%，预期 4%，前值 4%。 美国2月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值 3.4%，预期 3.3%，前值 3.3%。 ...

德国工业产出自去年八月以来首次下降，该产业尚未能走出长期低迷的困境。 2月6日，据德国联邦统计局公布的最新数据显示，去年12月制造业生产环比下降1.9%，降幅远超彭博 调查预期的下跌0.3%。此前11月数据修正为微增0.2%。 从具体行业看，汽车制造业是拖累整体产出的主要因素，在11月强劲反弹后，其12月产出环比骤降 8.9%。机械制造及设备维护领域也表现疲软，反映出制造业终端需求仍整体承压。不过，飞机、船舶 及军用车辆等其他运输设备类别产出实现增长，部分抵消了前述下滑。此外，圣诞节期间工厂季节性停 工也对当月工业生产数据造成一定影响。 值得关注的是，同期出口数据展现出超预期韧性。12月出口额环比增长4.0%，创2021年10月以来最大 增幅，其中对美国出口增长达8.9%。尽管同比2024年12月仍下降12.9%，但环比加速回升表明关税冲击 的实际影响已较去年年中明显缓和。进口额同期微增1.4%，推动贸易顺差扩大至171亿欧元。 经济学家视为暂时性波动 尽管数据令人失望，但多数经济学家认为这只是暂时性挫折。ING全球宏观主管Carsten Brzeski在给客 户的报告中表示，产出下降只是"复苏过程中的暂时中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that U.S. small-cap stocks have become the best investment target ahead of the midterm elections, as the appeal of tech giants diminishes [1] - The strategy suggested by the team is to "go long Main Street and short Wall Street" until the Trump administration successfully adjusts policies to address affordability issues and boost approval ratings [1][4] - The report highlights structural challenges faced by tech giants, noting a shift from light-asset to heavy-asset business models, with an estimated $670 billion in AI capital expenditures this year, consuming 96% of their cash flow [1][7] Group 2 - The report indicates that the "Bull-Bear Indicator" has risen to 9.6, the highest level since March 2006, signaling an "extremely bullish" market and triggering a sell signal [1][8] - The report warns that the transition to a heavy-asset model poses a significant threat to the market leadership of the so-called "seven giants" of the tech sector [7] - The market is showing signs of rotation from U.S. stocks to international equities, with emerging market stocks up 7% this year, and a broader increase of 5% in global markets outside the U.S. [8]