《量子计算机很可能永远不会成功》一文发表后，在多家媒体的转载下引发了广泛关注。传播热度虽不 代表真理归属，但它释放了一个重要信号：量子计算正逐渐走出单一的"乐观叙事"，开始进入一个更加 多元、审慎的公共视野。 在读者的反馈中，认同与质疑交织，而对我而言，后者尤显珍贵。科学从来不需要鲜花和掌声，它本质 上是在持续的质疑、修正与反思中砥砺前行。作为一项承载了世人热切期待的高精尖技术，量子计算的 演进尤其需要理性的批评与严肃的质疑。 作为《量子计算机很可能永远不会成功》的续篇，本文无意于情绪渲泄，而是旨在真诚地回应批评意 见，并对关键议题进行深度补遗。与其说这是一次"回应"，不如说是将理性的质疑继续向深处推进的一 次尝试。 一、对量子计算质疑主要来自物理学专家学者 读者对前文的批评比较集中在一个问题上：视频播主是否具备评价量子计算问题的资格。对此，有必要 先澄清一个容易被忽略的事实：该视频并非播主个人的原创判断，而是对既有学术争论的整理与转述。 在这一意义上，她更接近一名"二传手"——将原本分散在学术文献与专业讨论中的质疑观点，系统地呈 现给公众，而非以个人权威替代学术共识。 更重要的是，视频中所引用的质疑，并非来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The administrative penalty against Zhongxinghua Accounting Firm highlights significant failures in auditing practices, leading to severe financial misstatements at Yinjian Technology, raising concerns about the integrity of financial reporting in the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Penalties and Violations - Zhongxinghua Accounting Firm was fined 11.13 million yuan for issuing false audit reports related to Yinjian Technology, marking it as the most penalized accounting firm at the start of 2026 [1][2]. - The firm had previously received a reprimand for audit fraud in the financial reports of Taiantang for the years 2018-2020, indicating a pattern of regulatory scrutiny [2]. Group 2: Audit Failures - The audit failures stemmed from Zhongxinghua's work on Yinjian Technology's financial statements for 2021 and 2022, where it failed to identify significant revenue inflation totaling 68.17 million yuan and profit inflation of 25.65 million yuan [3][4]. - Specific issues included the misclassification of project revenues and the failure to detect changes in contract terms, leading to inflated financial results [4]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The audit failures at Zhongxinghua are indicative of deeper financial irregularities at Yinjian Technology, which has faced significant operational and compliance challenges, including a 76.01% drop in revenue year-over-year [6][8]. - Yinjian Technology's governance issues have resulted in substantial financial losses and legal troubles, with over 1.1 billion yuan in funds misappropriated by its controlling shareholder [7][9]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape is tightening, with multiple accounting firms facing penalties for similar audit deficiencies, reflecting a broader crackdown on financial misconduct in the industry [11][12]. - The recent actions by regulatory bodies emphasize the importance of accountability for third-party auditors in financial reporting, aiming to restore trust in the auditing profession [13].

对于2025年业绩创纪录的原因，中信证券在报告中表示，2025年，国内资本市场整体呈上行态势，市场 交投活跃度显著提升，投资者信心增强，A股主要指数均实现上涨。公司积极把握市场机遇，稳步做大 客户市场规模，经纪、投资银行、自营业务等收入均实现较快增长。 中信证券还表示，同时，公司坚定推进国际化布局，深化跨境服务能力，叠加香港市场的良好表现，公 司境外收入实现较快增长。基于上述原因，公司2025年营业利润等指标实现较大幅度增长。 公开资料显示，中信证券成立于1995年10月，是中国第一家A+H股上市的证券公司，第一大股东为中 国中信金融控股有限公司。中信证券是国内首家资产规模突破万亿元的证券公司，主要财务指标连续十 余年保持行业第一。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 1月14日，中信证券发布《2025年度业绩快报》。快报显示，2025年，中信证券的营业收入、净利润均 出现较大幅度增长。 根据相关数据，中信证券2025年实现营业收入748.30亿元，同比（与前一年同期相较）增加28.75%；归 属于母公司股东的净利润（下称"净利润"） 300.51亿元，同比增加38.46%。这也是中信证券历史首次全 ...

美股存储板块同样持续走强，美光科技上涨近1%，闪迪大涨逾5%并刷新历史高位，西部数据涨超3%同 创新高，希捷科技亦录得逾2%的涨幅。 当地时间1月15日，美股三大指数全线收涨。截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数表现领跑，上涨0.60%， 报收于49442.44点；标准普尔500指数录得0.26%的涨幅，报6944.47点；纳斯达克综合指数紧随其后， 微涨0.25%，报23530.02点。此外，纽约证券交易所综合指数也表现不俗，全天上涨0.39%，报收 22808.81点。 | 道琼斯工业平均指数 | ↑ 0.60% | | --- | --- | | 49,442.44 | | | 标准普尔500指数 | ↑ 0.26% | | 6,944.47 | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | ↑ 0.25% | | 23,530.02 | | | 纽约证券交易所综合指数 | ↑ 0.39% | | 22,808.81 | | 美股三大指数全线收涨 谷歌财经 板块方面，大型科技股走势分化。受台积电亮眼财报驱动，芯片板块集体走强。其中阿斯麦大涨超5% 并创下历史新高，台积电紧随其后涨超4%同创新高，英伟达亦录得超2%的涨幅。相比之 ...

【文/观察者网 潘昱辰 编辑/赵乾坤】据《华尔街日报》1月16日报道，知情人士透露，福特汽车正在与 比亚迪商讨为其部分混合动力车型采购电池，并可能将电池进口到福特在美国以外的工厂。 知情人士称，两家公司仍在讨论这种合作将如何运作。谈判仍在进行中，且有可能无法达成协议。 对此传言，观察者网向比亚迪方面求证，截至发稿尚未得到回应。 比亚迪出海汽车 东方IC 福特F-150生产线 东方IC 然而，这项潜在合作引发了美国政客和美国汽车高管们的担忧，认为其将对美国汽车工业构成威胁。法 利曾表示，福特计划推出的3万美元电动皮卡，将是对正在全球夺取市场份额的中国品牌的回应。 在《华尔街日报》报道了这项潜在交易后，美国总统特朗普的贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗在X平台上妄言，福 特的想法是在支撑中国竞争对手的供应链，并让自己更容易受到"勒索"。 事实上，已有多家美国汽车制造商与外国电池制造商建立合作关系。如通用汽车和福特都曾与韩国电动 制造商建立合资企业。 福特和比亚迪早有合作渊源。早在2020年，中国合资企业长安福特生产的汽车上就曾使用比亚迪电池。 其后比亚迪也曾主动联系福特，希望为销往其他市场的福特汽车提供电池。 对福特而言，随着 ...

中国网消息，1月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍货币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发 展的有关情况。 在CPI同比涨幅连续多月徘徊于低位的背景下，市场和公众对今年物价走势的关注明显升温。对此，中 国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，近期我国物价水平已出现积极变化，2025年12月CPI回升到了2023年3月 以来的最高水平。人民银行将把促进经济稳定增长和推动物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，继续 实施适度宽松的货币政策。 发言全文如下： 美国国际市场新闻社记者提问：中国的CPI增速持续低于目标值，目前物价水平仍然偏低，请问人民银 行如何看今年的物价形势，将采取哪些措施促进物价的合理回升？ 美国国际市场新闻社记者提问：中国的CPI增速持续低于目标值，目前物价水平仍然偏低，请问人民银 行如何看今年的物价形势，将采取哪些措施促进物价的合理回升？ 中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜：关于物价的问题，近期，中国的物价水平已经出现了积极变 化。 2025年12月，CPI同比上涨0.8%，已经回升到了2023年3月以来的最高水平；不包括食品和能源的核心 CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上，PPI同比降幅也 ...

Core Insights - Douyin e-commerce is projected to see a 49% year-on-year growth in transaction volume from August 2024 to August 2025, with over 5.36 million new merchants and 5.11 million new influencers earning stable incomes through the platform [1] - Live streaming has become the main source of growth for e-commerce, with significant contributions from small and medium-sized merchants [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of live streaming e-commerce in driving regional economic development and industry expansion, with a notable increase in the number of merchants and transaction volumes in various sectors [1][2] Group 1 - From August 2024 to August 2025, the number of merchants achieving revenue growth through live streaming increased by 45%, with over 80,000 new merchants surpassing 1 million yuan in live streaming sales [1] - Nearly 70% of small and medium-sized merchants participating in live streaming achieved product sales through the platform, with over 10,000 small merchants exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [1] - Influencers with fewer than 1 million followers accounted for over 85% of the transaction volume in influencer-led sales [1] Group 2 - In the past year, 491 interest-based industrial belts achieved transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, with 108 located in county-level cities contributing approximately one-quarter of the total transaction volume [2] - The number of merchants selling domestic products increased by 100% year-on-year, with a 51% rise in the number of users purchasing domestic goods, and nearly 10,000 domestic brands achieving over 1 million yuan in live streaming sales [2] - In the agricultural sector, Douyin e-commerce sold over 10.2 billion units of agricultural specialty products, with the number of merchants selling these products increasing by 51% [2]

Core Insights - The Shanghai commercial real estate market is facing dual pressures from macroeconomic adjustments and industrial transformations, leading to a challenging environment for both Grade A office buildings and retail properties in 2025 [1] Grade A Office Market - The supply-demand imbalance in the Grade A office market is deepening, with a total new supply of 1.037 million square meters in 2025, including 315,000 square meters completed in Q4 alone, contributing 243,000 square meters in the central business district (CBD) [1] - Despite a mild recovery in demand, the net absorption for the year is only 499,000 square meters, less than 50% of the new supply, further widening the supply-demand gap [1] - The vacancy rate in the CBD rose to 18.0% in Q4 2025, increasing by 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Average rents in the CBD fell to 6.4 yuan per square meter per day, a year-on-year decline of 12.1%, while non-CBD rents decreased to 4.2 yuan per square meter per day, down 11.0% year-on-year [3] - The financial sector remains the primary driver of demand for Grade A office space, accounting for 23%, followed by the technology and internet sector at 17%, with significant contributions from AI-related companies [4] Retail Property Market - The retail property market in Shanghai is also experiencing challenges, with new supply outpacing demand recovery, totaling 476,000 square meters in 2025, including 265,000 square meters in Q4 [5] - Despite consumer stimulus policies and a rebound in domestic tourism, the demand for retail properties is insufficient to absorb the new supply, leading to persistent rental pressure [5] - Average rents in core shopping districts fell by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter to 41.8 yuan per square meter per day, while non-core areas saw a larger decline of 1.3% to 14.4 yuan per square meter per day [5] - The overall vacancy rate in core areas decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4%, while non-core areas saw a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points to 13.3%, indicating relative stability in the market [5] - Emerging consumer trends, such as pet consumption and electronic products, are driving demand in the retail leasing market, supported by government policies [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent overdue public loans from Guangfa Bank have raised concerns about the bank's asset quality and risk management capabilities, with a total overdue amount exceeding 150 million yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Loan Default Information - Guangfa Bank disclosed two overdue public loans: 74.89 million yuan from Shaanxi Coal Supply Chain and 78 million yuan from Yida Construction Group, totaling over 150 million yuan [1][4]. - The overdue loans reflect risks in supply chain financing and the construction industry, both of which are closely tied to the economic climate and real estate market trends [4][2]. Group 2: Financial Data Analysis - As of the first half of 2025, Guangfa Bank reported a year-on-year decrease of 3.79% in non-performing loan (NPL) balance and an 8 basis point drop in NPL ratio, continuing a trend of "double decline" [1][6]. - However, the bank's loss loans reached 16.213 billion yuan, accounting for 51.89% of total NPLs, with a year-on-year increase of 20.36% [1][6]. Group 3: Industry Context and Risks - The overdue loans from Yida Construction Group highlight the spread of risks from the real estate sector to upstream construction companies, exacerbated by difficulties in receivables collection and extended project payment cycles [4][2]. - The bank's real estate loan NPL ratio has risen to 5.66%, while the construction sector's NPL ratio remains high at 3.39%, indicating accumulated risks from previous collaborations with distressed real estate firms [4][6]. Group 4: Business Structure and Internal Challenges - Guangfa Bank's business structure has been heavily reliant on credit cards and real estate, with credit card overdraft balances constituting 48.09% of personal loans, the highest among peer banks [7][8]. - The bank has faced regulatory penalties for various compliance issues, including improper loan issuance and misrepresentation of asset quality, totaling approximately 112 million yuan in 2025 [8][9]. Group 5: Financial Performance - In 2024, Guangfa Bank's operating income decreased by 0.65% to 68.796 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive year of revenue decline, while net profit fell by 4.98% to 15.006 billion yuan [9][11]. - The bank's net interest margin has narrowed to 1.53%, limiting its ability to absorb non-performing assets through profits [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The sixth batch of national centralized procurement for high-value medical consumables was held in Tianjin, marking a significant event in the medical supply industry with a total market scale of approximately 11 billion yuan and an annual procurement demand exceeding 3.7 million sets [1][2]. Group 1: Procurement Details - The procurement included 12 types of medical consumables across two categories: drug-coated balloons and urological intervention products, with a selection rate of about 89%, setting a new record for the scale of national procurement [1][2]. - The introduction of the "anchor price" mechanism and multiple "revival" rules aimed to stabilize clinical use, ensure quality, prevent excessive competition, and avoid collusion [1][2][3]. - In the drug-coated balloon category, all 32 participating companies' products were selected, achieving a "zero elimination" outcome [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The price of drug-coated balloons has significantly decreased from around 13,000 yuan to approximately 700 yuan, reflecting a drop of over 90% since the first batch of procurement in 2020 [2][9]. - The sixth batch of procurement is expected to further solidify the price range of drug-coated balloons to between 2,000 and 3,000 yuan, following previous reductions [9][10]. - The inclusion of urological intervention products in the national procurement marks a new opportunity for domestic companies, with 170 out of 195 participating companies successfully selected [7][10]. Group 3: Company Performance - Companies like Lepu Medical, Xinmai Medical, and Weili Medical have successfully had their products selected, which is expected to enhance their market share and accelerate the domestic substitution process [1][6][7]. - Lepu Medical announced that all its products were selected in this procurement, with prices significantly lower than previous provincial procurement averages, indicating a moderate price drop compared to earlier expectations [4][10]. - Following the announcement of the procurement results, Lepu Medical's stock price rose, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding the company's future performance [10].