元旦过后，生猪现货价格呈区间震荡。一方面，2025年12月养殖端超卖，一定程度上透支了本月生猪出 栏量。相关数据显示，2025年12月全国规模企业出栏完成度为计划量的103.57%，1月初供应压力下 滑。另一方面，大型养殖集团调控出栏节奏，随着月初企业出栏量减少，对价格形成了较强提振，但备 货支撑及腌腊需求明显减弱，终端白条价格跟涨难度较大，供需双弱的前提下，生猪价格未出现明显上 涨。 元旦前后，市场补栏积极性再度回升。一方面，二育存栏量低；另一方面，散户手中大猪数量不多。元 旦后虽然生猪出栏体重仍在低位，但散户栏内生猪体重持续回升，边际增量持续增加。大猪缺少及二育 补栏造成生猪体重及出栏量走低，但存量供应持续恢复，1月中下旬出栏体重及数量均将持续回升。 从二育操作逻辑看，在价格上涨驱动缺失的前提下，市场更关注肥标价差、成本绝对价格是否处于低 位。春节前大猪需求将保持在较高水平，而散户出栏体重普遍有所下降，大型养殖集团生猪出栏体重也 处在相对低位。若价格下跌，则二育仍有较强的进场驱动，对现货价格底部形成支撑。 总体来看，2026年上半年生猪供应仍维持高位，供应节奏受二次育肥影响较大。春节前市场通常出现超 卖现 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent turmoil in Iran has raised investor concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, leading to a rise in international crude oil prices to the highest level since early December 2025 [1] - Methanol futures prices have shown a gradual rebound since January 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions in the U.S. and escalating situations in the Middle East [1] - Domestic methanol port inventories remain high, with the 2605 contract still operating under a "weak reality, strong expectations" framework [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - As of December 2025, China's methanol production reached 101.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [2] - The operating rate of coal-based methanol plants was 103.6%, up 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, while natural gas-based methanol plants saw a decrease to 48.4%, down 2.5 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Methanol imports in November 2025 were 1.4176 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase despite a month-on-month decline [2] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - As of January 8, 2026, domestic methanol port inventories rose to 1.5372 million tons, with expectations of maintaining high levels in January, which may exert pressure on near-term contract prices [3] - The inventory levels of inland methanol enterprises were around 447,700 tons, with slight price adjustments observed from manufacturers [3] - The market anticipates a significant decrease in methanol shipments from Iran in January, which could impact supply dynamics [3] Group 4: Downstream Demand - Domestic methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities are expected to gradually restart by late January, although traditional downstream demand remains weak [4] - The operating rate for olefins was 89.28%, reflecting a month-on-month increase, while other downstream products showed varied performance in their operating rates [4] - The coal market remains stable, with normal production levels in major coal-producing regions, although demand is slightly increasing due to colder temperatures [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - High port inventories continue to suppress market sentiment for methanol, but global geopolitical disturbances warrant close monitoring of the situation in Iran [5] - Despite expectations for the restart of some MTO facilities, caution is advised regarding the economic viability of these facilities if prices rise [5] - The methanol market is expected to remain in a "weak reality, strong expectations" state, with high inventory levels limiting upward price movement and a likelihood of wide fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of coking coal options on January 16 marks a new phase in risk management for the coal-coke-steel industry, enhancing the existing framework established by coking coal futures since 2013 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Context and Demand - Coking coal is a critical raw material for the steel and coal chemical industries, with China's production in 2024 projected at 165 million tons, accounting for 53% of global output, and consumption at 206 million tons, representing 63% of global consumption [2]. - The volatility of coking coal prices has increased significantly, with prices for Anze low-sulfur coking coal dropping from 4600 yuan/ton in October 2021 to around 1170 yuan/ton by June 2025, a decline exceeding 70% [2]. - The stable operation of coking coal futures since their introduction has made them an essential tool for enterprises to manage price risks, with a daily average trading volume of 1.06 million contracts and a high correlation of 97% with spot prices in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Implementation of Futures and Options - Companies like Shanxi Yaxin Energy Group have developed comprehensive hedging management systems, utilizing futures data to guide procurement negotiations and manage inventory risks effectively [3]. - The introduction of coking coal options is seen as a timely enhancement to the existing futures market, providing additional tools for risk management and improving the overall risk management framework for the coal-coke-steel industry [5][9]. - The options market is expected to allow for more precise risk hedging, lower capital costs, and flexible strategies for companies, enhancing their ability to manage price fluctuations [8][11]. Group 3: Strategic Planning and Future Outlook - Companies are preparing clear application plans for the new options tool, indicating that options will complement futures to stabilize operations amid price volatility [9]. - Yaxin Energy has categorized its options application into three scenarios: bottom layout, high-position hedging, and rights-inclusive trading, focusing on efficient capital use and inventory management [10]. - Zhongyang Zhixu plans to adopt a strategy of 80% futures hedging and 20% options for flexible adjustments, aiming to lock in core risks while utilizing options for additional revenue [11].

Core Viewpoint - The global iron ore market is entering a new growth cycle, with production expected to increase from 2.4 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons over the next five years, driven by new capacity from the Guinea Simandou project and a more relaxed supply-demand balance [1][8]. Group 1: Iron Ore Supply Dynamics - The Guinea Simandou project is projected to significantly contribute to global iron ore supply, with its production capacity expected to reach 200 million tons by 2030 [7][8]. - The supply structure is shifting towards a multi-polar model, with Australia, Brazil, and Africa becoming key players in iron ore supply [2][8]. - The production capacity of major mining companies is on the rise, with capital expenditures for Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, and FMG showing consistent growth [3][4][5]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Vale's capital expenditure is expected to rise from 25.84 billion yuan in 2019 to 47 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.7% [3]. - Rio Tinto's capital expenditure is projected to grow from 20.89 billion yuan in 2016 to 70.14 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3% [4]. - FMG's capital expenditure is anticipated to increase from 2.39 billion yuan in 2016 to 27.05 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 30.9% [5]. Group 3: Domestic and International Demand - Domestic iron ore production in China is expected to stabilize around 1 billion tons, influenced by stricter safety and environmental regulations [10][14]. - The steel industry in China is showing signs of recovery, with profits rebounding after a significant decline, which may lead to increased production [11][12]. - Emerging economies, particularly in Asia and Africa, are experiencing robust steel demand due to ongoing infrastructure investments, contrasting with declining production in developed economies [13]. Group 4: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The iron ore price is expected to gradually decline as the market transitions from a phase of quantitative to qualitative changes in supply and demand [1][14]. - The average iron ore price is projected to stabilize around 750 yuan per ton, with fluctuations expected to increase compared to the previous two years [2][14].

Group 1 - After the New Year holiday, the steel market is resuming production, with rebar supply pressure expected to rise quickly, while apparent demand continues to decline to near five-year lows, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts in the industry [1] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a rebound in crude steel production, with the central bank signaling a focus on promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, potentially implementing about two interest rate cuts and one to two reserve requirement ratio cuts [2][3] - The steel industry is experiencing a structural contraction, with crude steel production in 2025 from January to November at 89.167 million tons, down 4.0% year-on-year, while steel production increased by 4.0% [2] Group 2 - Steel production has entered a recovery phase, with total production of five major steel varieties increasing by 34,100 tons week-on-week to 8.1859 million tons, indicating a gradual transition towards a moderately loose supply [3] - The demand side remains under significant pressure, with fixed asset investment showing three consecutive months of negative growth, and real estate development investment down 15.9% year-on-year [3] - The current steel market is characterized by a conflict between strong expectations and weak realities, with macroeconomic easing expectations and real estate financing support creating upward pressure, while weak investment, particularly in real estate, continues to suppress steel prices [3] Group 3 - The inventory of major steel products has recently increased after a 12-week decline, with total inventory rising by 217,700 tons to 12.5392 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.74% [4] - The construction materials market has seen a significant reduction in inventory, but plate inventory remains high due to weak demand, indicating a slower pace of destocking compared to construction materials [4] - As steel mills gradually resume production, inventory is expected to continue rising, with the peak potentially occurring earlier than expected due to the late Spring Festival and prolonged off-season [4] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the rebar market faces weakening supply and demand, with significant upward pressure remaining, primarily supported by mild recovery in exports and manufacturing, while the real estate and infrastructure sectors are unlikely to exceed expectations [5] - The market dynamics before the Spring Festival will be driven by macro expectations and cost support, while post-festival trends will depend on demand signals [5]

据CCTV国际时讯消息，美国总统特朗普昨日在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，他已经"取消了与伊朗官员的所有会面"。 《纽约时报》援引美军官员的话报道称，美军在中东地区的指挥官希望"在发起任何潜在打击前，预留更多时间来巩固美军阵地，为伊朗可能发动的报复 性袭击做好准备"。 据悉，特朗普11日说，伊朗方面已与美国政府官员接触并提议进行谈判，"会议正在安排中"。 据央视新闻最新消息，美东时间1月13日，美国国务院通过"虚拟驻伊朗德黑兰使馆"发布全国性安全警告称，敦促美国公民立即离开伊朗，并建议在安全 可行的情况下经陆路前往土耳其或亚美尼亚，同时提醒不要依赖美国政府直接协助撤离。美国国务院12日曾发布紧急安全警示，要求美国公民立即离开伊 朗。 另据新华社消息，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃13日表示，俄方强烈谴责外部势力干涉伊朗内政，美国威胁对伊朗发动军事打击是"绝对不可接受的"。 银价、油价大涨 早上好，先来关注下国际局势。 13日晚，现货黄金、白银价格均刷新历史纪录，同时，WTI原油期货、布伦特原油期货价格也大幅走高。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | 轻质原油连续 | | --- | --- | --- | | 46 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector has shown a strong resurgence at the beginning of the year, with a notable "stock market leading, futures and spot resonance" trend, indicating a recovery in industry sentiment [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The core chemical ETF (516020) saw a gain of over 5% in the first week of the year, with leading products experiencing cumulative increases exceeding 10% and a single-day net inflow surpassing 200 million [5]. - The stock market's bullish sentiment has quickly transmitted to the commodity market, with chemical products rising and trading becoming active, particularly in the energy chain sector [5]. - The market is witnessing a clear leading pattern among top players in various sub-sectors, including bio-chemicals, new materials, and refining [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - The current market trend is attributed to a fourfold resonance of policy, cost, supply, and demand, with the policy front providing a "strong tonic" for the sector [5]. - The Central Economic Work Conference has set a tone for stable growth, with ongoing "two new" policies and a focus on consumption, alongside plans to eliminate outdated production capacities [5]. - The geopolitical situation has raised oil prices, which is expected to support the profitability recovery of the chemical industry, with predictions of Brent crude oil prices stabilizing between $60 and $70 per barrel by 2026 [6]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand is expected to rebound significantly after the Spring Festival, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on expanding domestic demand, particularly in sectors like new energy, real estate, and automotive [6]. - The supply side is experiencing a noticeable contraction, with domestic chemical industry expansion nearing its end and overseas capacity exiting at an accelerated pace, leading to supply shortages in key areas like PX [6]. Group 4: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term (1-3 months), the chemical sector is expected to have strong bottom support, with the resumption of work in February likely to enhance demand growth expectations [7]. - In the mid-term (3-6 months), the sector may experience increased differentiation, with performance largely dependent on demand resilience, supply disruptions, and oil price trends [7]. - Overall, the early-year rally in the chemical sector marks the beginning of industry recovery, but the structural and phase characteristics of the market are significant, necessitating close monitoring of macro policies, supply-demand changes, and oil price fluctuations [7].

《纽约时报》援引美军官员的话报道称，美军在中东地区的指挥官希望"在发起任何潜在打击前，预留更多时间来巩固美军阵地，为伊朗可能发动的报复 性袭击做好准备"。 据悉，特朗普11日说，伊朗方面已与美国政府官员接触并提议进行谈判，"会议正在安排中"。 据央视新闻最新消息，美东时间1月13日，美国国务院通过"虚拟驻伊朗德黑兰使馆"发布全国性安全警告称，敦促美国公民立即离开伊朗，并建议在安全 可行的情况下经陆路前往土耳其或亚美尼亚，同时提醒不要依赖美国政府直接协助撤离。美国国务院12日曾发布紧急安全警示，要求美国公民立即离开伊 朗。 另据新华社消息，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃13日表示，俄方强烈谴责外部势力干涉伊朗内政，美国威胁对伊朗发动军事打击是"绝对不可接受的"。 银价、油价大涨 13日晚，现货黄金、白银价格均刷新历史纪录，同时，WTI原油期货、布伦特原油期货价格也大幅走高。 早上好，先来关注下国际局势。 据CCTV国际时讯消息，美国总统特朗普昨日在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，他已经"取消了与伊朗官员的所有会面"。 图片来源：央视新闻 截至发稿，金银价格均有所回落。伦敦银现货价格涨逾3%，伦敦金现货价格下跌0.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector has shown a strong resurgence at the beginning of the year, with a notable "stock market leading, futures and spot resonance" trend, indicating a recovery in industry sentiment [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The core chemical ETF surged over 5% in the first week of the year, with leading products seeing cumulative gains exceeding 10% and a single-day net inflow surpassing 200 million yuan [5]. - The stock market's bullish sentiment quickly transmitted to the commodity market, with active trading in chemical products, particularly in the energy chain, although performance varied among different products [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The current market trend is attributed to a fourfold resonance of policy, cost, supply, and demand. The central economic work conference has set a tone for stable growth, and policies promoting consumption remain unchanged [5]. - Rising international geopolitical tensions have increased crude oil prices, which are expected to stabilize and support the profitability recovery of the chemical industry [6]. - Domestic and international supply constraints are evident, with a notable supply gap in key areas like PX due to the end of the domestic chemical industry's expansion cycle and accelerated exit of overseas capacity [7]. Group 3: Demand and Investment - Post-Chinese New Year, demand is expected to rebound, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on expanding domestic demand, particularly in sectors like new energy, real estate, and automotive [7]. - The chemical sector is attracting institutional investment due to its relatively low valuations, with both investment and industrial funds driving up trading activity [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts believe the current market rally represents a phase of valuation correction, with short-term and medium-term trends likely to differ significantly [8]. - In the short term (1-3 months), strong bottom support is anticipated, with the February resumption season expected to further enhance demand growth [8]. - In the medium term (3-6 months), increased differentiation within the chemical sector is expected, with performance largely dependent on demand resilience, supply disruptions, and oil price trends [8].

此外，当地时间12日，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士也发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对鲍威 尔发起刑事调查。签署这一声明的包括多名美联储前主席、美国财政部前部长和白宫经济顾问委员会前 主席。 声明说，美联储的独立性对美国经济表现至关重要，而对鲍威尔的刑事调查企图利用检方调查削弱美联 储的独立性。声明强调，法治是美国经济成功的根基，并警告说，这种前所未有的做法可能给通胀形势 和整体经济运行带来极为不利的影响。 孙伏鲲表示，鲍威尔遭刑事调查，是一场针对美联储独立性的"压力测试"，其根源在于特朗普对现行高 利率政策的不满。尽管此举未能改变美元走弱的大趋势，但确实导致了部分大类资产定价出现偏移。当 美元作为全球资产定价"基石"的地位受到质疑时，黄金等传统避险资产自然会成为资金的避风港。全球 央行持续增持黄金储备的行为反映了长期投资者的资产配置已经出现结构性转变。 美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查一事继续发酵！ 环球时报援引美国《华尔街日报》13日报道，9位央行行长"史无前例地"发表联合声明，强调维护美联 储的独立性"至关重要"。 华源期货孙伏鲲和实盘大赛金牌导师王志新在期货日报的直播节目中对事件的深层影响进行了全面解 读 ...