Group 1: PTA Market Overview - The main contract price of PTA has been fluctuating between 4600 to 4750 yuan/ton, with no significant short-term market contradictions [1] - The long-term outlook for the PTA industry is positive, with expectations for the future contract price to gradually rise [1] Group 2: Oil Price Influences - Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have led to a geopolitical premium in oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices rebounding above 60 USD/barrel [2] - Despite a generally pessimistic view on oil supply and demand, current oil prices have already factored in many negative elements, and geopolitical factors are expected to provide strong support [2] Group 3: PTA Industry Fundamentals - Since 2019, the PTA industry has entered a new expansion cycle characterized by large-scale and integrated facilities, with effective capacity expected to double from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to over 94.72 million tons by 2025 [3] - No new PTA capacity is expected in 2026, significantly reducing supply pressure, while downstream polyester production is projected to increase by about 5% [3] - As of December 17, PTA processing fees were at 164 yuan/ton, a historical low, with upstream PX supply remaining tight, squeezing PTA profits [3] Group 4: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the next 1-3 months, PTA is expected to enter a seasonal accumulation period due to weaker downstream demand, with spot prices under pressure but aligning with seasonal changes [4] - Long-term, oil prices are expected to have limited downside, providing some support for PTA costs, and the long-term supply-demand balance for PTA is anticipated to improve, leading to a rise in future contract price [4]

12月18日，铂、钯期货延续强劲走势。截至当日午盘收盘，铂期货主力2606合约报542.65元/克，上涨 5.32%；钯期货主力2606合约报476.6元/克，上涨6.99%。12月12日至今，铂、钯期货价格均已涨逾 20%。 昨晚，广期所公告，根据《广州期货交易所风险管理办法》，经研究决定，自2025年12月23日交易时 起，非期货公司会员或者客户在铂期货PT2606、PT2608、PT2610、PT2612合约上单日开仓量分别不得 超过500手，非期货公司会员或者客户在钯期货PD2606、PD2608、PD2610、PD2612合约上单日开仓量 分别不得超过500手。 中信期货分析师王美丹认为，基本面偏紧将为铂价提供较强的上行动力。当前，铂需求处于结构性扩张 阶段，供应紧缺状态预计将延续。预计铂2025年供需缺口扩大至46.4吨，2026年约37.9吨。 从宏观环境来看，邓伟斌表示，美联储进入降息周期，美元指数走弱降低了持有贵金属的机会成本。同 时，在金银价格大幅上涨后，市场资金寻找价值洼地，铂、钯顺势成为贵金属板块的焦点。 值得注意的是，近期日元套息交易松动。顾冯达表示，若日本央行政策转向导致日元套息交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing price stabilization due to a combination of supply-side adjustments and steady agricultural demand, despite previous pressures from high domestic supply and fluctuating export volumes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 18, urea futures main contract prices increased by 1.67% to 1708 CNY/ton, with low-end product ex-factory prices rising by 10-20 CNY/ton to 1610-1670 CNY/ton [1]. - The CFR price for small granular urea in China was reported at 387.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 4 USD/ton from the previous week [3]. - Urea prices are expected to remain within the range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton for most of 2025, with a central price around 1750 CNY/ton [4]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - National urea production from January to November 2025 reached 65.09 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with November production hitting 6.01 million tons [2]. - The operating rate for coal-based urea production was 89.6%, up by 2.9 percentage points month-on-month, while the natural gas-based urea operating rate was 55.2%, down by 9.9 percentage points [2]. - New production capacities are expected to increase total urea capacity by 5.6% by 2025, with significant contributions from several companies in Gansu [2]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - Urea production companies have seen a slight reduction in inventory over six consecutive weeks, with total inventory dropping to 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54,500 tons from the previous period [3]. - Port inventories have shown a slight increase, indicating a mixed inventory trend across different storage locations [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand for urea is gradually increasing, supported by stable supply and price stabilization efforts [4]. - The operating rate for compound fertilizers was reported at 40.6%, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points [4]. - The winter season's natural gas-based urea production facility maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in operating rates, with companies focusing on essential purchases [4].

全球铜矿供应正面临系统性压力。2025年，智利El Teniente矿难、印尼Grasberg泥石流及刚果（金） Kamoa-Kakula矿震等事件接连发生，导致全球铜矿产量同比下滑约4.7%，预计全年供应缺口将扩大至 15万～30万吨。与此同时，矿山品位持续下降（1990年以来平均品位降幅已达30%）与新增项目投产普 遍延迟（未来五年年均增速预计不足2%）进一步加剧中长期供应压力，引发全球市场对铜矿供应的担 忧，并显著推升其风险溢价水平。 2025年四季度以来，全球铜价持续刷新历史高位。12月上旬，沪铜主力合约突破9.45万元／吨，LME铜 价触及1.19万美元／吨，年内累计涨幅均超过30%。笔者认为，本轮铜价上涨并非由单一供需矛盾驱 动，而是供应瓶颈、金融属性释放与政策扰动等多重因素共振的结果。尽管国际铜研究组织数据显示， 2025年全球精炼铜市场预计小幅过剩17.8万吨，但区域性库存失衡叠加长期结构性缺口预期，共同推动 铜价脱离即期基本面约束，凸显出铜作为战略资源，在能源转型与地缘格局演变过程中正在经历价值重 估。 矿山中断与冶炼困局交织 从需求结构来看，铜市传统消费领域如建筑、家电等行业表现疲软，但新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have risen over 44% since October, driven by market expectations of increased demand and supply uncertainties [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine next week and the launch of Jiangxi Qiangyu New Materials project have raised concerns about supply growth [1] - Analysts note that the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine is a key variable affecting supply-demand balance, with expectations of increased supply in January [1][2] - Current lithium carbonate inventory depletion has slowed, with a weekly depletion of 1,044 tons reported, down from previous levels of around 2,000 tons [2][3] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about whether the demand growth expected for 2026 will materialize, leading to potential shifts in market dynamics [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the current price levels may already reflect optimistic market expectations for 2026, indicating a potential premium [2] - The market is experiencing a reduction in bullish factors and an increase in bearish factors, raising the risk of price corrections if prices rise too quickly [2][3] Future Outlook - The uncertainty in the lithium carbonate market remains significant, with potential impacts from seasonal demand fluctuations and the resumption of lithium mining operations [3] - Downstream manufacturers' production data for the first quarter of next year will be a key focus for the market, especially in light of declining electric vehicle sales [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary and fiscal easing expectations are providing strong support for precious metal prices, while certain precious metal varieties face potential short-term negative disturbances [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The monetary policy direction of major global economies is a core factor influencing the commodity market. The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting phase, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, and has recently conducted technical balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity [2] - There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, particularly with potential shifts towards "pragmatic monetarism" which may impact market liquidity expectations and disturb precious metal prices [2] - Other major economies are also adjusting their monetary policies, with the Bank of England expected to cut rates by December 2025 and the Bank of Japan potentially raising rates to 0.75% around the same time, creating a generally loose liquidity environment that supports a "bull market" for precious metals [2] Group 2: Long-term Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Global debt and fiscal deficit expansion, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases, are long-term bullish factors for the precious metals market. Gold prices show a strong correlation with the total debt of major global economies [3] - Despite facing short-term negative factors, the long-term core trading logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, driven by global "reflation" trades, monetary policy uncertainties, and geopolitical risks [3] - Continuous increases in gold reserves by central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China since November 2024, provide significant physical demand support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Dynamics - The global platinum market is increasingly recognized for its "new energy metal" attributes, with supply constraints due to high mining costs and aging production equipment, while demand is supported by stricter automotive emissions standards [4] - The palladium market is characterized by oligopolistic supply and tightening conditions, but faces long-term demand pressures from the shift towards electric vehicles, which may lead to a more relaxed supply-demand balance by 2026 [4] - Both platinum and palladium are critical industrial and new energy metals, with their supply-demand dynamics evolving due to the energy structure transition [5]

当下，螺纹钢库存结构是比较健康的，现实供需矛盾也不大。因此，本轮价格下跌过程中，期货价格的 跌幅明显大于现货。螺纹钢主力2605合约对华东现货的贴水已经扩大至196元／吨，处于近3年高位。杭 州地区螺纹钢库存已经从11月下旬的95.7万吨下降至69.7万吨。螺纹钢期货前20席位净多和净空持仓的 差值也从11月下旬的-11.16万手变为2.27万手。 明年1月，市场可能逐步关注到冬储逻辑。虽然现在市场普遍预计2026年建材需求会继续下一个台阶， 贸易商冬储意愿偏差，但是螺纹钢2605合约价格已经接近电炉钢的谷电成本（3079元／吨），且盘面贴 水已经处于高位，具备一定冬储价值。因此，我们预计仍会有贸易商通过盘面或场外累购期权的方式进 行冬储。 12月5日以来，螺纹钢价格出现快速下跌，主力2605合约价格最低下探至3031元／吨，相比月初高点下 跌150元／吨，跌幅约为4.7%。对于后期走势，我们认为，利空充分发酵之后，螺纹钢价格有望在3000 元／吨附近逐步企稳。 近期大跌原因分析 近期，螺纹钢价格大幅下跌主要是因为需求走弱和成本支撑下移。12月是传统的建材需求淡季，螺纹钢 表观消费量从11月下旬的230.79 ...

在与区域企业接触后，创元期货有色产业服务人员李玉芬发现，随着加工行业竞争逐渐白热化，再加上 近年来铝价波动加剧，下游企业的经营压力不断增加。"签单时算着盈利，交付时却因铝价上涨亏了 本。"这是一些铝加工企业经营状况的真实写照。在了解到上述情况后，她与团队决定深入产业链"对症 下药"。 作为国内三大铝加工产业集聚区之一，华东地区的铝加工产能规模在国内位居前列，其中，在江苏无 锡、浙江湖州等地已形成从铝锭贸易、熔铸挤压到终端制造的完整产业链集群。依托长三角地区发达的 水陆联运体系，以及周边新能源汽车、光伏装备等高端制造业需求的驱动，区域内铝加工产业规模持续 增长。 "对症下药"直击产业保值痛点 "我们需要的不是复杂的理论，而是能直接解决问题的办法。"这是企业最真实的诉求，也成为创元期货 服务的出发点。"尤其是下游的铝加工企业，多是中小民营企业，对金融工具往往感到陌生和担忧。"李 玉芬表示，如何将复杂的金融衍生品转化为企业能理解、易操作的风险管理工具，是服务落地的首要难 题。 针对上述痛点，公司团队为企业量身打造了服务方案。首先是开展专项培训，为企业讲解期货、期权工 具用法；其次是研究团队分享基本面分析报告，帮助企 ...

本报讯广期所昨日发布通知，自12月23日交易时起，非期货公司会员或者客户在铂期货2606、2608、 2610、2612合约上单日开仓量分别不得超过500手，非期货公司会员或者客户在钯期货2606、2608、 2610、2612合约上单日开仓量分别不得超过500手。(鲍仁) ...

Group 1 - The historic launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, coincided with the groundbreaking of the first egg deep processing project by Hainan Hongchu Food Technology Co., Ltd, marking a significant step in local agricultural enterprise chain upgrades [1] - Jin Yuan Futures Co., Ltd recognizes the unprecedented opportunities created by the "zero tariff" policy from the free trade port, which facilitates the upgrade and iteration of the local agricultural industry chain [1] - The egg deep processing project aims to transform primary eggs into high-value products such as liquid eggs and egg powder, promoting the transition of Hainan's egg industry from traditional farming to a high-quality development model through the entire industry chain and deep processing [1] Group 2 - Eggs are a crucial "basket product," and their price fluctuations directly impact both consumer livelihoods and farmers' incomes [2] - Jin Yuan Futures is committed to using futures and derivative tools to provide precise risk management solutions for agricultural industry chain enterprises, enabling them to effectively lock in raw material procurement costs or finished product sales prices [2] - The deep integration of finance and industry is viewed as an essential path for high-quality development, with Jin Yuan Futures expressing a desire to collaborate with more local enterprises in Hainan to leverage free trade port policies and financial market tools for industrial upgrades and rural revitalization [2]