美国11月非农就业数据好坏参半，市场对明年降息保持乐观预期，将驱动白银价格进一步上涨。美联储 12月降息仍属于"预防式降息"范畴，在政策利率回归中性后，后续降息门槛将进一步提高。此外，白银 供应紧张预期持续发酵，叠加市场情绪乐观，短期白银价格偏强运行为主。但随着利多逐渐被市场消 化，以及资金可能获利离场，交易者需警惕市场情绪转变引发的白银价格大幅调整风险。 美国非农数据好坏参半 12月16日，因10月和11月美国联邦政府"停摆"而延迟发布的非农就业报告显示，11月非农就业人口增加 6.4万人，好于市场预期的增加5万人。10月美国就业岗位减少了10.5万个，降幅明显超过市场预期，其 中政府部门就业大幅下滑。失业率从9月的4.4%意外攀升至11月的4.6%，达2021年9月以来的最高。 从行业分布来看，就业结构的分化仍然突出。11月大部分新增就业来自近几年迅速扩张的医疗照护行 业，11月新增就业4.6万人，与过去12个月平均每月新增3.9万人的水平大致一致。此外，建筑业也增加 了2.8万个就业。在过去12个月中，建筑业就业整体变化不大。社会救助相关岗位增加1.8万人，其中， 个人和家庭服务领域新增1.3万人。 值 ...

Group 1 - The current copper prices have fully absorbed optimistic expectations, and potential technical adjustments may occur if the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate cuts, downstream demand weakens, or mine restarts exceed expectations [1][4] - Since Q4 2025, global copper prices have continuously reached historical highs, with the Shanghai copper futures surpassing 94,500 yuan/ton and LME copper prices hitting $12,000/ton, both showing an annual increase of over 30% [1] - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to multiple factors, including supply bottlenecks, the release of financial attributes, and policy disturbances, rather than a single supply-demand imbalance [1][2] Group 2 - Global copper mine supply is facing systemic pressure, with a projected year-on-year decline of approximately 4.7% in 2025 due to incidents in major mines, leading to an expected supply gap of 150,000 to 300,000 tons [2] - The average grade of copper mines has decreased by 30% since 1990, and the average annual growth rate of new projects is expected to be less than 2% over the next five years, exacerbating long-term supply pressures [2] - The global copper smelting sector is experiencing significant challenges, with processing fees at historically low levels, leading to production losses and reduced capacity among smelting companies [2] Group 3 - Traditional consumption sectors for copper, such as construction and home appliances, are showing weakness, while the renewable energy and AI industries are emerging as core growth drivers [3] - The annual copper consumption in photovoltaic and wind power installations exceeds 1.8 million tons, and the copper usage in electric vehicles is three times that of traditional vehicles [3] - Global copper inventory is showing significant regional disparities, with COMEX inventory surging to 400,000 tons (a 300% year-on-year increase), while LME Asian warehouse inventory has dropped below 150,000 tons [3] Group 4 - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026, with a projected supply-demand gap potentially expanding to 300,000 tons due to limited new capacity releases [4] - Demand growth driven by AI data centers and global grid upgrades is expected to average between 5% and 10% annually, which may offset declines in traditional consumption sectors [4] - In a low inventory environment, any supply disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts or policy changes could lead to a structural bull market in copper prices, potentially reaching the range of 100,000 to 110,000 yuan/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - Since December, manganese silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded from low levels, with the main contract increasing by nearly 200 yuan/ton, although the overall increase in spot prices has not matched that of futures, leading to a weak and stable basis [1] Supply Constraints - Despite widespread losses among manganese silicon enterprises and weakened production willingness, the reduction in output from major production areas has been limited, resulting in no significant alleviation of supply pressure. As of the week ending December 12, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises was 36.85%, with an average daily output of 27,035 tons, continuing to decline since mid-September, with a cumulative decrease of 10.53 percentage points and 3,555 tons [2] - The overall manganese silicon production remains close to last year's levels, despite a significant year-on-year decline in operating rates by 8.18 percentage points. The daily average output has only decreased by 1,185 tons compared to the same period last year. In Inner Mongolia, the daily average output remains stable at 13,840 tons, down 1,040 tons from previous highs, and slightly down 800 tons year-on-year [2] Inventory Levels - As of the week ending December 12, the total inventory of manganese silicon production enterprises reached 382,000 tons, setting a new historical record. Inventory accumulation is evident across all regions, particularly in major production areas. In Ningxia, the latest inventory reached 285,500 tons, an increase of 195,500 tons from previous lows, continuously hitting record highs [3] - The increase in inventory is primarily due to significantly weakened demand, leading to passive accumulation. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 22,000 tons, mainly due to weak terminal demand. Other regions also saw inventory increases, but the absolute growth was not substantial [3] Demand Performance - As of the week ending December 12, only 35.93% of the 247 sample steel mills were profitable, a continuous decline since mid-August, down 32.47 percentage points and significantly lower than the same period last year. The profitability of major steel products has not improved, with many long-process steel mills in North China still in a loss state [4] - The overall profitability of steel mills remains poor, and with the seasonal downturn in the steel market, manganese silicon demand is expected to remain weak in the short term. Despite a market sentiment recovery driving manganese silicon prices up from low levels, limited supply reduction and ongoing weak demand indicate that the industry’s supply-demand dynamics have not improved [4]

Group 1: PTA Market Overview - The main contract price of PTA has been fluctuating between 4600 to 4750 yuan/ton, with no significant short-term market contradictions [1] - The long-term outlook for the PTA industry is positive, with expectations for the future contract price to gradually rise [1] Group 2: Oil Price Influences - Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have led to a geopolitical premium in oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices rebounding above 60 USD/barrel [2] - Despite a generally pessimistic view on oil supply and demand, current oil prices have already factored in many negative elements, and geopolitical factors are expected to provide strong support [2] Group 3: PTA Industry Fundamentals - Since 2019, the PTA industry has entered a new expansion cycle characterized by large-scale and integrated facilities, with effective capacity expected to double from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to over 94.72 million tons by 2025 [3] - No new PTA capacity is expected in 2026, significantly reducing supply pressure, while downstream polyester production is projected to increase by about 5% [3] - As of December 17, PTA processing fees were at 164 yuan/ton, a historical low, with upstream PX supply remaining tight, squeezing PTA profits [3] Group 4: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the next 1-3 months, PTA is expected to enter a seasonal accumulation period due to weaker downstream demand, with spot prices under pressure but aligning with seasonal changes [4] - Long-term, oil prices are expected to have limited downside, providing some support for PTA costs, and the long-term supply-demand balance for PTA is anticipated to improve, leading to a rise in future contract price [4]

12月18日，铂、钯期货延续强劲走势。截至当日午盘收盘，铂期货主力2606合约报542.65元/克，上涨 5.32%；钯期货主力2606合约报476.6元/克，上涨6.99%。12月12日至今，铂、钯期货价格均已涨逾 20%。 昨晚，广期所公告，根据《广州期货交易所风险管理办法》，经研究决定，自2025年12月23日交易时 起，非期货公司会员或者客户在铂期货PT2606、PT2608、PT2610、PT2612合约上单日开仓量分别不得 超过500手，非期货公司会员或者客户在钯期货PD2606、PD2608、PD2610、PD2612合约上单日开仓量 分别不得超过500手。 中信期货分析师王美丹认为，基本面偏紧将为铂价提供较强的上行动力。当前，铂需求处于结构性扩张 阶段，供应紧缺状态预计将延续。预计铂2025年供需缺口扩大至46.4吨，2026年约37.9吨。 从宏观环境来看，邓伟斌表示，美联储进入降息周期，美元指数走弱降低了持有贵金属的机会成本。同 时，在金银价格大幅上涨后，市场资金寻找价值洼地，铂、钯顺势成为贵金属板块的焦点。 值得注意的是，近期日元套息交易松动。顾冯达表示，若日本央行政策转向导致日元套息交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing price stabilization due to a combination of supply-side adjustments and steady agricultural demand, despite previous pressures from high domestic supply and fluctuating export volumes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 18, urea futures main contract prices increased by 1.67% to 1708 CNY/ton, with low-end product ex-factory prices rising by 10-20 CNY/ton to 1610-1670 CNY/ton [1]. - The CFR price for small granular urea in China was reported at 387.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 4 USD/ton from the previous week [3]. - Urea prices are expected to remain within the range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton for most of 2025, with a central price around 1750 CNY/ton [4]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - National urea production from January to November 2025 reached 65.09 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with November production hitting 6.01 million tons [2]. - The operating rate for coal-based urea production was 89.6%, up by 2.9 percentage points month-on-month, while the natural gas-based urea operating rate was 55.2%, down by 9.9 percentage points [2]. - New production capacities are expected to increase total urea capacity by 5.6% by 2025, with significant contributions from several companies in Gansu [2]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - Urea production companies have seen a slight reduction in inventory over six consecutive weeks, with total inventory dropping to 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54,500 tons from the previous period [3]. - Port inventories have shown a slight increase, indicating a mixed inventory trend across different storage locations [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand for urea is gradually increasing, supported by stable supply and price stabilization efforts [4]. - The operating rate for compound fertilizers was reported at 40.6%, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points [4]. - The winter season's natural gas-based urea production facility maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in operating rates, with companies focusing on essential purchases [4].

全球铜矿供应正面临系统性压力。2025年，智利El Teniente矿难、印尼Grasberg泥石流及刚果（金） Kamoa-Kakula矿震等事件接连发生，导致全球铜矿产量同比下滑约4.7%，预计全年供应缺口将扩大至 15万～30万吨。与此同时，矿山品位持续下降（1990年以来平均品位降幅已达30%）与新增项目投产普 遍延迟（未来五年年均增速预计不足2%）进一步加剧中长期供应压力，引发全球市场对铜矿供应的担 忧，并显著推升其风险溢价水平。 2025年四季度以来，全球铜价持续刷新历史高位。12月上旬，沪铜主力合约突破9.45万元／吨，LME铜 价触及1.19万美元／吨，年内累计涨幅均超过30%。笔者认为，本轮铜价上涨并非由单一供需矛盾驱 动，而是供应瓶颈、金融属性释放与政策扰动等多重因素共振的结果。尽管国际铜研究组织数据显示， 2025年全球精炼铜市场预计小幅过剩17.8万吨，但区域性库存失衡叠加长期结构性缺口预期，共同推动 铜价脱离即期基本面约束，凸显出铜作为战略资源，在能源转型与地缘格局演变过程中正在经历价值重 估。 矿山中断与冶炼困局交织 从需求结构来看，铜市传统消费领域如建筑、家电等行业表现疲软，但新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have risen over 44% since October, driven by market expectations of increased demand and supply uncertainties [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine next week and the launch of Jiangxi Qiangyu New Materials project have raised concerns about supply growth [1] - Analysts note that the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine is a key variable affecting supply-demand balance, with expectations of increased supply in January [1][2] - Current lithium carbonate inventory depletion has slowed, with a weekly depletion of 1,044 tons reported, down from previous levels of around 2,000 tons [2][3] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about whether the demand growth expected for 2026 will materialize, leading to potential shifts in market dynamics [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the current price levels may already reflect optimistic market expectations for 2026, indicating a potential premium [2] - The market is experiencing a reduction in bullish factors and an increase in bearish factors, raising the risk of price corrections if prices rise too quickly [2][3] Future Outlook - The uncertainty in the lithium carbonate market remains significant, with potential impacts from seasonal demand fluctuations and the resumption of lithium mining operations [3] - Downstream manufacturers' production data for the first quarter of next year will be a key focus for the market, especially in light of declining electric vehicle sales [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary and fiscal easing expectations are providing strong support for precious metal prices, while certain precious metal varieties face potential short-term negative disturbances [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The monetary policy direction of major global economies is a core factor influencing the commodity market. The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting phase, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, and has recently conducted technical balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity [2] - There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, particularly with potential shifts towards "pragmatic monetarism" which may impact market liquidity expectations and disturb precious metal prices [2] - Other major economies are also adjusting their monetary policies, with the Bank of England expected to cut rates by December 2025 and the Bank of Japan potentially raising rates to 0.75% around the same time, creating a generally loose liquidity environment that supports a "bull market" for precious metals [2] Group 2: Long-term Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Global debt and fiscal deficit expansion, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases, are long-term bullish factors for the precious metals market. Gold prices show a strong correlation with the total debt of major global economies [3] - Despite facing short-term negative factors, the long-term core trading logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, driven by global "reflation" trades, monetary policy uncertainties, and geopolitical risks [3] - Continuous increases in gold reserves by central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China since November 2024, provide significant physical demand support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Dynamics - The global platinum market is increasingly recognized for its "new energy metal" attributes, with supply constraints due to high mining costs and aging production equipment, while demand is supported by stricter automotive emissions standards [4] - The palladium market is characterized by oligopolistic supply and tightening conditions, but faces long-term demand pressures from the shift towards electric vehicles, which may lead to a more relaxed supply-demand balance by 2026 [4] - Both platinum and palladium are critical industrial and new energy metals, with their supply-demand dynamics evolving due to the energy structure transition [5]

当下，螺纹钢库存结构是比较健康的，现实供需矛盾也不大。因此，本轮价格下跌过程中，期货价格的 跌幅明显大于现货。螺纹钢主力2605合约对华东现货的贴水已经扩大至196元／吨，处于近3年高位。杭 州地区螺纹钢库存已经从11月下旬的95.7万吨下降至69.7万吨。螺纹钢期货前20席位净多和净空持仓的 差值也从11月下旬的-11.16万手变为2.27万手。 明年1月，市场可能逐步关注到冬储逻辑。虽然现在市场普遍预计2026年建材需求会继续下一个台阶， 贸易商冬储意愿偏差，但是螺纹钢2605合约价格已经接近电炉钢的谷电成本（3079元／吨），且盘面贴 水已经处于高位，具备一定冬储价值。因此，我们预计仍会有贸易商通过盘面或场外累购期权的方式进 行冬储。 12月5日以来，螺纹钢价格出现快速下跌，主力2605合约价格最低下探至3031元／吨，相比月初高点下 跌150元／吨，跌幅约为4.7%。对于后期走势，我们认为，利空充分发酵之后，螺纹钢价格有望在3000 元／吨附近逐步企稳。 近期大跌原因分析 近期，螺纹钢价格大幅下跌主要是因为需求走弱和成本支撑下移。12月是传统的建材需求淡季，螺纹钢 表观消费量从11月下旬的230.79 ...