Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's reaction to the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by President Trump, highlighting investment strategies that involve buying short-term U.S. Treasury bonds while selling long-term ones due to anticipated changes in monetary policy and inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Strategies - Citigroup's James van Geelen advised approximately 50,000 clients to buy two-year U.S. Treasury bonds and sell ten-year bonds, anticipating that a new Fed chair would likely follow Trump's interest rate cut demands, leading to lower short-term yields [1]. - The strategy, termed "Powell hedge," reflects a broader concern among Wall Street investors regarding the potential loss of Fed independence and its implications for inflation and interest rates [1][5]. - Other institutions, including RBC and Allspring, share similar views, indicating a shift in perception regarding the Fed's independence and the need for protective measures in investment strategies [1][5]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Context - The backdrop for these trading strategies includes expectations of a slowing U.S. economy and rising debt and deficit levels, with the threat to Powell's position seen as an additional factor [2]. - Market reactions to news about Powell's potential firing included a significant rise in the 30-year Treasury yield and a drop in the dollar against the euro, illustrating the immediate impact of political developments on financial markets [6]. Group 3: Future Implications and Predictions - Analysts predict that the likelihood of Powell being dismissed remains low, with a 22% chance of him leaving by 2025, up from 18% the previous week [5]. - The article notes that if the Fed maintains its current interest rates but experiences dissent among members, this uncertainty could lead to higher long-term yields, further complicating the Fed's position amid political pressures [8][9]. - The potential for a loss of Fed independence, combined with inflationary pressures from tariffs and fiscal policy changes, could create a challenging environment for monetary policy moving forward [8].

过去几年，美国接连遭遇一系列通胀冲击：疫情打乱供应链、大规模财政刺激、俄乌冲突、移民政策收 紧、关税壁垒以及国债规模预估飙升。然而投资者始终预期通胀将在数年内回归2%水平。这种信心的 根源在于：人们本能地相信无论遭遇何种冲击，美联储都能像汽车刹车系统那样确保通胀受控。 另一位竞争者、特朗普的顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）也表示："白宫所有人都明白美联储独立性 的极端重要性。" 但美联储能否保持独立并不取决于下任主席。如果特朗普能解雇鲍威尔，同样可以解雇其继任者。 5月最高法院曾示意总统无权无故撤换包括主席在内的美联储理事。特朗普上周三虽表示不太可能解雇 鲍威尔，但留下"若涉欺诈则需离职"的话柄。其团队正试图以美联储总部装修超标为由构建解职依据。 特朗普对工程成本的关切颇具选择性。以美墨边境墙为例：2016年竞选时他宣称造价80-120亿美元且由 墨西哥支付。国土安全部数据显示，特朗普首个任期实际耗资170亿美元纳税人资金，工程未完工且墨 西哥未出一分钱。近期国会共和党人又追加465亿美元拨款。 如果特朗普成功迫使美联储主席鲍威尔去职，这一根本假设将彻底崩塌。美联储将不再是对政府的制衡 力量，而 ...

Economic Developments - The U.S. Commerce Secretary expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with the EU, with a baseline tariff of 10% set to begin on August 1 [11][12] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce anticipates that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [14][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth stabilization plan for ten key industries, including steel and petrochemicals [14][15] Market Performance - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.155% to 98.46, while U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 10-year yield at 4.423% and the 2-year yield at 3.88% [3][4] - International oil prices experienced volatility, with WTI crude oil closing at $66 per barrel, down 0.47%, and Brent crude at $68.59 per barrel, down 0.45% [4][8] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.33% to close at 24,825.66, with a trading volume of 238.69 billion yuan [5][8] Corporate News - The court hearing for the Wahaha family property dispute is scheduled for August 1 in Hong Kong [16] - The Chinese government is taking measures to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals [14][18] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. approval of Nvidia's H20 chip sales to China, emphasizing the need for a cooperative environment for mutual benefit [14][18]

Core Insights - The significant reduction in immigration and large-scale deportation policies are expected to negatively impact economic growth, contrary to claims that new budget proposals will boost growth above 3% [1][2] - The new budget allocates $70 billion for border security and $75 billion for domestic enforcement, which may lead to a decrease in population and labor force, adversely affecting economic growth [1][2] - A projected sharp decline in undocumented immigrants this year could lower U.S. GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points, given the historical average growth rate of about 2.5% [1][2] Immigration Policy Impact - If the Trump administration achieves its goal of deporting one million people annually, the economic drag could increase to 1.5 percentage points by 2027 [2] - The current U.S. economy is nearing full employment, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% for native workers in 2024, making the impact of reduced immigration on the labor market more pronounced [2] - The claim that limiting immigration will create job opportunities for native workers is challenged by data showing that native workers occupy only 1/8 of the jobs held by undocumented immigrants, which are often low-paying and physically demanding [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The complementary relationship between native workers and undocumented immigrants suggests that deportation may not create jobs for natives, as evidenced by past enforcement programs that reduced native employment rates and wages [2] - Automation and AI are unlikely to quickly fill the gap left by undocumented immigrants, as current AI applications primarily replace professional and clerical jobs rather than manual labor [3] - Strict immigration controls may deter STEM workers and students, delaying technological advancements and negatively impacting long-term productivity growth [3] Future Considerations - The U.S. faces a demographic challenge with an aging workforce and declining birth rates, necessitating a forward-looking immigration policy rather than merely reducing immigration and increasing deportations [3] - Without immigration, the U.S. population is projected to begin declining by 2033, which could constrain economic growth [3] - To achieve its economic growth objectives, the administration should reconsider its restrictive immigration policies [3]

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced volatility after an initial rise, influenced by a slight uptick in the US June CPI, which adjusted market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Gold prices fluctuated significantly, with a downward trend driven by US economic data and rising bond yields, reaching a peak of $3370 before settling at $3355 per ounce [1] - Silver prices initially surged to $39 per ounce, marking a new high since September 2011, but later retreated to $38.29 per ounce [1] - Non-US currencies weakened against the dollar, with the British pound hitting a new low since May 20, and the euro experiencing a second consecutive week of decline [1] Oil Market - International oil prices declined due to renewed trade tensions, with both Brent and WTI crude recording their first drop in three weeks [2] - The market's initial fears of immediate supply disruptions from sanctions on Russia were alleviated by a 50-day grace period announced by Trump [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin reached a historic high of over $120,000, with a market capitalization exceeding $2.3 trillion, driven by legislative support for cryptocurrency in the US [2] - The total cryptocurrency market cap surpassed $4 trillion, reflecting strong growth in the sector [2] Investment Bank Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026, maintaining a bullish long-term outlook on gold [5] - Bank of America does not expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates before next year [5] - UBS forecasts the euro to rise to 1.23 against the dollar by June 2026 [5] Economic Data - Moody's anticipates global economic growth to slow to just above 2% this year [6] - Citigroup sets a year-end target of 25,000 points for the Hang Seng Index, recommending an overweight position in Chinese internet, technology, and consumer sectors [6] Major Events - Trump's consideration to replace Fed Chair Powell caused significant market fluctuations, with major banks defending the Fed's independence [7] - The US CPI report indicated a rise in inflation, with the overall CPI year-on-year increasing to 2.7%, the highest since February [9] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported a slight increase in economic activity, but noted a generally pessimistic outlook [10] Trade Policies - Trump announced potential tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with initial low rates that could escalate significantly [12] - The EU plans retaliatory tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods, focusing on high-value products and digital services [13] China's Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a need to address external instability and domestic demand issues [14] AI Developments - OpenAI launched ChatGPT Agent, a new AI product capable of performing complex tasks autonomously, enhancing efficiency in various applications [24][27]

Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Spot gold maintains a bullish trend with the first resistance level at 3358.24 [1] - Spot silver shows no significant resistance above [1] - WTI crude oil continues its bullish trend, with a resistance level to watch at 67.66 [1] Group 2: Currency Market Insights - The US Dollar Index is operating below the pivot point, with a focus on the effectiveness of the support at 98.07 [1] - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate targets the first resistance at 1.1659 [1] - The British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate has a primary resistance level to watch at 1.3476 [1]

Group 1 - The European Union has reached an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia, which includes limiting financing channels for Russian banks and banning the use of the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany [1] - This is described as one of the strongest measures against Russia to date, aimed at further reducing the Kremlin's budget and targeting an additional 105 shadow fleet vessels and their supporters [1] - The G7's price cap on Russian oil exports will be lowered from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel, which is 15% lower than the average market price of Russian crude oil [1] Group 2 - A key element of the EU's 18th round of sanctions is a new dynamic oil price cap mechanism, which will be reviewed every six months to ensure that the price for Russian oil exports to third countries is 15% lower than the average market price [2] - The full impact of this price cap may be limited unless supported by all G7 partners, particularly the United States, as negotiations continue [2] - The latest sanctions took weeks to finalize due to opposition from Slovakia, which sought more time to phase out Russian gas contracts, but agreed to sign the proposal after receiving sufficient guarantees from the European Commission [2] - The EU Council voted to extend the current requirements for member states to maintain sufficient gas reserves before winter for an additional two years, aiming to mitigate risks from gas price volatility due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to warn about the uncertainty of the impact of U.S. tariffs in its upcoming quarterly report, but may express a more optimistic view on the recent shocks to the Japanese economy compared to three months ago [1] - The market anticipates that the BOJ will maintain the interest rate at 0.5% during the meeting on July 30-31, with investors looking for clues regarding the timing of the next rate hike from the quarterly report [1][2] - Recent data has not shown any clear evidence of damage from U.S. tariffs or trade negotiations with Washington, with corporate confidence remaining stable according to the BOJ's quarterly survey [2] Group 2 - The BOJ's previous report projected Japan's economy to grow by 0.5% in FY2025, 0.7% in FY2026, and 1.0% in FY2027, and it is likely to maintain its view that inflation will reach the 2% target in the latter half of the three-year forecast period ending FY2027 [2] - Domestic prices in Japan have been consistently higher than expected, driven by rising food costs, which have pushed consumer inflation above the BOJ's 2% target [2][3] - Some BOJ policymakers, such as hawkish board member Naoki Tamura, have warned that cost-push inflation pressures could lead to second-round effects, potentially necessitating a return to rate hikes [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policies - The potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by Trump could lead to declines in the dollar, stocks, and short-term bond yields, while long-term yields may rise sharply [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is urged not to become complacent with current policy outcomes due to the strengthening euro and tariff uncertainties impacting economic outlook [2] - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the notion of the Federal Reserve being free from political pressure is a myth, and the U.S. stock market may continue to rise based on expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts [3] Group 2: Labor Market and Interest Rates - Barclays reports that recent labor market data in the UK shows signs of weakness, which may bolster the Bank of England's confidence in cutting interest rates in August [4] - Deutsche Bank maintains its forecast for U.S. and German bond yields to remain stable, with limited downward movement expected due to anticipated rate cuts from both the ECB and the Federal Reserve [5] Group 3: Trade and Consumer Impact - Wells Fargo economists indicate that rising import prices in the U.S. suggest that foreign exporters are not absorbing the higher tariff costs imposed by Trump, leading domestic companies to pass these costs onto consumers [6] Group 4: Industry Trends and Opportunities - CICC expresses optimism about the ongoing AI Agent industry wave, predicting significant scaling in various sectors by 2025 as technology matures [7] - CITIC Securities highlights the investment opportunities in the non-bank sector, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and regulatory changes that could enhance revenue growth for brokerage firms [8] - The gaming industry is experiencing robust growth, with a 20% year-on-year increase in mobile game market size, benefiting gaming platforms and communities [9] - CITIC Securities notes that OPEC+'s production increases may support oil prices, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation in the coming years [10] - Huaxi Securities emphasizes the high growth potential of the optical module industry, driven by increasing AI demand and capital expenditures [11] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the domestic energy storage market's demand growth in the short, medium, and long term, supported by new pricing mechanisms [12]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating political tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is undermining investor confidence, with analysts warning that any attack on the independence of the central bank could lead to a surge in gold prices [2][3]. Group 1: Political Tension and Market Impact - Trump has openly expressed dissatisfaction with Powell, advocating for a rapid interest rate cut of 300 basis points, which would place the federal funds rate between 1.25% and 1.50% [2]. - Recent personal attacks from Trump on Powell have intensified, with derogatory remarks and rumors about Powell considering resignation being circulated [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership is injecting new volatility into the markets, with concerns about the central bank's independence worsening the situation [2][3]. Group 2: Consequences of Loss of Independence - Analysts describe the independence of the Federal Reserve as its "superpower," warning that attacks on this independence could have dramatic consequences, including a potential collapse of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [3]. - The loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve would undermine its ability to support turbulent financial markets through the purchase of U.S. government bonds, which is based on its reputation [3][4]. - The example of Turkey's central bank losing credibility due to political interference is cited as a warning for U.S. investors, suggesting that similar outcomes could benefit gold [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Safe Haven - Analysts recommend that investors focus on safe-haven assets like gold, especially as the Federal Reserve may take significant actions in the fall [3][4]. - Increased political tension could lead to heightened market volatility, with gold likely being used more as a store of value during such times [5]. - If Trump follows through on threats to dismiss Powell, it could unexpectedly drive demand for gold, putting pressure on the dollar index [5]. Group 4: Central Bank Demand for Gold - Despite increased investment demand for gold this year, central bank demand remains a key factor behind the historic rise in gold prices over the past three years, with expectations of an additional 1,000 tons of gold reserves being added globally [6]. - Analysts suggest that the establishment of a "shadow chairman" in the Federal Reserve could dilute monetary policy guidance, complicating the management of market expectations [6].