诚然，确实有不少人持这一观点。桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧就是其中之一，他上周在世界经济论坛上表示： 《金融时报》周二刊登了一篇探讨各国央行黄金买入行为的文章。正如此前该报专栏作家罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗（Robert Armstrong）所指出的，"有人会认 为，全球央行正将外汇储备从美元转向黄金，相较于债券市场，此举是衡量'货币贬值'更有效的指标。" "当前全球经济存在严重的失衡问题，各国间的相互依存度也极高。美国需要大量的资本流入，而其他国家则担忧自身持有的美元资产可能被冻 结，这一固有趋势正发挥着关键作用，如今也已显现出现，具体表现为各国央行开始转向配置黄金。我们看到央行们在增持黄金储备，这是重 大冲突出现时的传统做法。 这是我们所熟知的货币体系走向终结的开端。受影响的并非只有美元，而是所有法定货币——英国、欧元区、日本均面临类似的债务问题，且 处于相同的国际关联格局中，这也是各国央行纷纷选择黄金的原因。" 或许达利欧的观点是正确的，但《金融时报》创办的每日新闻评论服务FT Alphaville编辑布莱斯·埃尔德（Bryce Elder）指出，目前这一论调仍缺乏实证支 撑。 黄金ETF的资金流动数据，能让散户的 ...

Group 1 - The extreme surge in silver prices is driving a significant increase in trading volume for the iShares Silver Trust ETF, which recorded nearly $40 billion in trading volume on Monday [1] - This trading volume is comparable to that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, one of the largest ETFs globally, and exceeds the single-day trading volumes of Nvidia at $23 billion and Tesla at $22 billion [1] - Just months ago, the daily trading volume of this silver ETF was around $2 billion, which rose to approximately $10 billion by the end of December last year [3] Group 2 - Silver prices have more than doubled since 2025, with a nearly 60% increase as of January 2026, potentially marking the largest monthly gain since 1979 [3] - Other commodities and related assets are also experiencing upward trends, with gold rising 18% this year and the MSCI Global Metals and Mining Index increasing by 19% [3] - The current price movements and trading volumes indicate that speculative behavior has largely replaced fundamental economic factors as the main driver of silver price fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under significant pressure due to concerns over Japan's fiscal health, despite expectations of coordinated buying by the US and Japan to support the currency. The upcoming elections and the government's economic stimulus plans further complicate the situation [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Japanese government debt now accounts for approximately 230% of GDP, the highest among developed countries [5]. - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's campaign for early elections is based on expanding economic stimulus measures, which may weaken the effectiveness of any currency intervention [1][5]. - The market's concern over Japan's fiscal management has intensified, leading to a significant sell-off in the stock market and a decline in the yen against the euro and Swiss franc [5]. Group 2: Currency Intervention - Historical experience suggests that actual market interventions may have limited impact, especially in the context of Japan's fiscal crisis concerns [1][6]. - The yen's depreciation has prompted discussions of potential intervention, with expectations that a breach of the 160 yen per dollar mark could trigger the first round of intervention [4]. - Despite the potential for US-Japan coordinated intervention, the effectiveness is expected to be limited, primarily due to a lack of investor confidence in Japan's fiscal management capabilities [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Fund manager Toshinobu Chiba indicated that if Takaichi wins decisively and pushes for more stimulus, the yen could fall to 180 per dollar, a level not seen since 1986 [3]. - The recent spike in Japanese government bond yields has not supported the yen as expected, indicating a disconnect between bond yields and currency value [2][5]. - The upcoming elections are seen as a critical moment for Takaichi's economic agenda, with the potential for significant market reactions based on the election outcome [1][5].

SHMET 网讯：冬季风暴" Fern"虽已基本结束，但其对美国造成的破坏影响将长期持续。 为评估此次强烈冬季风暴的经济影响，美国银行首席经济学家阿迪亚·巴韦（Aditya Bhave）回顾了2021年2月袭击美国的 冬季风暴"维奥拉"（Viola）。这两场风暴均导致美国约一半地区发布冬季天气预警。2021年2月消费者支出环比下降 0.9%，而1月曾增长1.3%。然而，这种波动可能并非完全由"维奥拉"造成：2021年1月的支出也受到2020年12月《综合拨款 法案》通过以及有利的季节性调整的提振。 巴韦在其分析中使用了美国银行最新的汇总信用卡和借记卡数据来聚焦"维奥拉"的影响。在截至2021年2月19日的一周 内，总卡类支出同比下降3.7%，而此前数周的趋势约为同比增长6%。 | | 1/17 | 1/16 | 1/15 | 1/14 | 1/13 | 1/12 | 1/11 | 1/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total card spending | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, driven by political uncertainties and resulting in record-high costs for dollar bearish hedging tools. Investors are increasingly pessimistic about the dollar's long-term prospects, marking the lowest sentiment since May 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Investors are heavily betting against the dollar, with short-term option premiums reaching the highest level since Bloomberg began tracking this data in 2011 [1]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index experienced a slight increase, but the previous three trading days saw the largest drop since April of last year, indicating a potential decline to a four-year low if the trend continues [4]. - The dollar is currently underperforming among the G10 currencies, reflecting a shift in investor perception towards this traditional safe-haven asset [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing the Dollar - Multiple pressures are affecting the dollar, including concerns over high US fiscal deficits, sanction risks, trade tensions, and a global trend of diversifying reserve assets into gold and other commodities [4]. - The recent dollar weakness is not solely sentiment-driven but is accompanied by significant capital flows, with trading volumes reaching historical highs [5]. - A severe one-sided market position is evident, with approximately two-thirds of euro and Australian dollar option trades betting on further dollar weakness [6]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Hedging Costs - Market anxiety is reflected in the soaring volatility of the dollar, which has reached its highest level since September of last year [7]. - The prices of butterfly options, which measure the demand for hedging against extreme price fluctuations, have surged to a seven-month high, indicating that traders are preparing for a potential further decline in the dollar [7]. - Speculation exists that the US government may collaborate with Japanese monetary authorities to stabilize the declining yen, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the dollar [7].

锂电龙头宁德时代赫然出现在2026年锂供应商榜单中。当制造巨头亲自下场开矿，会对脆弱的锂市场平衡产生何种冲击？ 以上内容来自加电联盟,仅供参考,不构成投资建议 pos ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 而在1月早些时候，同样37岁的雷内·古德也在当地被美国移民与海关执法局特工枪杀。这两起事件引发 了全国范围的抗议活动，示威者强烈谴责特朗普政府的移民政策及其执法行动。 特朗普上一次访问爱荷华州是在7月4日假期前夕，当时为美国即将到来的250周年纪念活动揭幕。但在 国会通过其重大支出与减税方案数小时后，这场活动在很大程度上演变为对该法案的庆祝。 共和党方面希望，特朗普周二再次到访爱荷华州，能够将舆论焦点重新拉回这项税收法案上。这也被视 为共和党在11月中期选举中争取选民继续支持的重要卖点之一。 爱荷华州共和党众议员扎克·纳恩（Zach Nunn）在行前声明中表示："我邀请特朗普总统重返爱荷华 州，突出我们取得的真实进展：为工薪家庭减税、巩固边境安全、推动经济增长。现在我们必须保持这 一势头，通过我的可负担住房法案，兑现对爱荷华州能源生产者的承诺，并降低工薪家庭的成本。" 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普将于当地时间1月27日（周二）前往爱荷华州，并发表一场聚焦能源和经济议题的讲 话。值得注意的是，爱荷华州方面计划当天下午2点起，在特朗普演讲场地外举行抗议活动。 白宫新闻秘 ...

Group 1 - The E Fund Gold Theme Securities Investment Fund (LOF) will suspend subscription and regular investment starting from January 28, 2026, to ensure stable operation of the fund [2] - The suspension specifically affects the A-class RMB shares, while redemptions will not be impacted [4] - The market has already experienced restrictions on subscriptions and regular investments for different share classes, leading to a tight channel for new investments [4] Group 2 - In contrast, the Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF) has announced multiple measures to cool down the market, including risk warnings and trading suspensions [4] - The secondary market prices for the silver LOF are significantly higher than the net asset value, exposing investors to risks of price fluctuations due to premium declines [4] - The risk assessment thresholds for precious metals-related businesses are being raised, with banks increasing requirements for risk tolerance assessments for gold accumulation businesses [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming market focus will be on the resumption of subscriptions and regular investments for both LOFs, as well as the potential impact of precious metal price fluctuations on trading restrictions [5]

Core Insights - President Trump has indicated he has a preferred candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chair and plans to announce this choice soon, potentially during the week of January 26 [2] - Wolfe Research highlights a significant time window for the announcement, particularly during the FOMC meeting, suggesting a strategic move to shift market focus away from the Fed's lack of rate cuts [2] - The announcement is expected to fill the vacancy left by the Fed Governor's seat, which will be vacated on January 31, with a nomination likely before the March FOMC meeting [2] Candidate Analysis - Market reactions suggest that Rick Rieder from BlackRock and Kevin Hassett are viewed as relatively dovish candidates, while Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh are seen as more hawkish [3] - Hassett's potential appointment could steepen the yield curve, whereas Warsh's nomination might flatten it [3] - Wolfe Research indicates that Hassett has a higher probability of being nominated than the current market prediction of 6%, although there is no perfect candidate that meets all of Trump's criteria [3]

桥水基金创始人瑞・达利欧（Ray Dalio）向美国发出全新警告：该国正走在重蹈历史覆辙的道路上。 这位亿万富豪投资者表示，当前美国面临的一系列全国性危机——从明尼阿波利斯联邦执法人员致人死 亡事件，到国家债务飙升——都释放出明确信号，美国正步入其"大周期"中更为暴力的阶段。 达利欧周一在X平台发布了一篇题为《货币、内部与国际冲突、明尼阿波利斯及更多——以宏观视角看 待》的长文，警示称："如今的美国已是一个火药桶。" 这篇博文大量引用了他2021年的著作《应对变化中的世界秩序的原则》，在该书中，他通过分析500年 历史，解读了部分国家崛起而另一些衰落的原因，并提出了一个六阶段、周期约80年的理论，用以追踪 一个国家货币、国内及国际秩序的演变进程。 达利欧在博文中指出，美国能否远离内部冲突、或是进一步靠近冲突边缘，决定权掌握在总统特朗普手 中。 他写道："许多人都在观望，特朗普总统会选择继续强硬对抗——我认为这可能会让我们越过临界点， 陷入一场更明确的内部冲突；还是会试图呼吁和平、将我们从边缘拉回，承诺并证明司法系统会妥善处 理枪击事件，同时限制移民与海关执法局的相关行动。" 多年来，达利欧一直借助其"大周期" ...