Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are on the rise, with strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) contributing to this upward momentum, potentially marking a second consecutive week of gains [1] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Silver prices surged over 2% before the European market opened, approaching a historical high of nearly $59 reached earlier in the week [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) for silver has fluctuated around 70, indicating potential overbought conditions, as investors flock to silver amid rising prices [3] - Year-to-date, silver prices have nearly doubled, significantly outpacing gold's 60% increase, driven by a short squeeze in the London market [3] Group 2: Economic Factors and Predictions - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week have bolstered silver prices, with swap contracts indicating a high likelihood of a rate reduction in December, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals [3] - Analysts from Citigroup, including Max Layton, predict silver could reach $62 per ounce in the next three months due to factors such as Fed rate cuts, strong investment demand, and physical shortages [4] Group 3: Industrial Demand and Structural Changes - Silver is not only a precious metal but also essential in various industrial applications, including circuit boards, solar panels, and medical device coatings, with global demand exceeding mining output for five consecutive years [4] - Analysts suggest that the current surge in silver prices indicates a shift in market perception, recognizing silver's structural scarcity and growing industrial demand beyond its role as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 4: ETF Inflows and Investor Sentiment - In just four days leading up to Thursday, the increase in silver ETF holdings surpassed the total for any complete week since July, signaling strong investor appetite despite concerns of overvaluation [5]

"我预计美联储将在下周会议上降息。我知道10月会议后出现了很多反复的讨论，尤其是鲍威尔表现得有些鹰派，但我认为这更多是因为政府停摆导致 缺乏可用数据，"杰富瑞集团（Jefferies）首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯（Thomas Simons）表示。 根据路透社对100多位经济学家的调查，美联储将在12月9日至10日的政策会议上降息25个基点，以支持正在降温的劳动力市场。 这一强烈共识与11月的调查结果大致吻合，也与利率期货市场隐含的近85%降息概率相符，但与政策制定者之间日益加深的分歧形成鲜明对比——他 们对这个全球最大经济体下周是否需要进一步的宽松政策存在争议。 在10月份降息25个基点后，美联储主席鲍威尔警告称需警惕通胀反弹，并强调12月的降息行动"远非板上钉钉"。自2021年3月以来，通胀率一直高于美 联储2%的目标。 一场持续43天的政府停摆导致关键经济数据发布受阻，进一步加剧了这一担忧。 10月会议纪要还显示，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部存在严重分歧——部分成员倾向于维持利率不变，另有几位明确反对10月的降息决定。 尽管对该决定及未来政策路径存在分歧，但在11月28日至12月4日的路透社调查 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper price has reached a historical high, driven by optimistic price forecasts from Citigroup and expectations of a supply shortage due to increased U.S. inventories [1][3]. Group 1: Price Forecasts - Citigroup analysts predict that the average copper price will reach $13,000 per ton by Q2 2026 due to supply gaps in other regions as U.S. inventories rise [1][3]. - Morgan Stanley expects copper prices to reach $12,500 per ton by Q2 2026, with an annual average of approximately $12,075 per ton [6]. - UBS has a more aggressive forecast, predicting copper prices will rise from $11,500 per ton in March 2026 to $13,000 per ton by December 2026 [6]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - Global terminal consumption of copper is expected to grow by 2.5% next year, driven by low interest rates, U.S. fiscal expansion, European military spending, and energy transition [3]. - The AI revolution is creating a new consumption pattern for copper, particularly in large-scale AI data centers, which require significantly more copper than traditional data centers [4]. - By 2030, global copper demand from data centers is projected to reach 400,000 tons annually, with a peak consumption of 572,000 tons by 2038, indicating an annual growth rate of 8% to 12% [4]. Group 3: Supply Challenges - Ongoing operational disruptions, such as declining ore grades and water shortages, along with community protests in major producing countries like Chile and Peru, are exacerbating supply challenges [4]. - The development cycle for new mines, which can take 17 to 23 years, is hindering rapid supply adjustments [4]. - Major Chinese smelters have announced significant production cuts by 2025 due to declining profitability, further constraining supply [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The copper market is expected to enter a structural shortage in 2024, with a projected gap of 150,000 tons by 2026, driven by strong demand and limited supply [5]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) indicates that the supply gap could reach 30% by 2035, highlighting copper's critical role in global supply chains for energy transition and AI expansion [5]. - Global copper inventories have surged to over 656,000 tons, the highest level since 2018, with about 60% stored in U.S. warehouses [7].

Core Viewpoint - Moer Technology (688795.SH) successfully listed on the STAR Market on December 5, 2025, with a peak intraday increase of 502.03%, reaching a maximum price of 688 CNY per share, and a market capitalization exceeding 300 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Moer Technology is the only domestic company in China to achieve mass production of fully functional GPUs, often referred to as the "first domestic GPU stock" [1] - The company was founded in 2020 and focuses on the research, design, and sales of GPUs and related products, targeting high-performance computing fields such as AI, digital twins, and scientific computing [1][2] - The founding team consists of members with extensive experience from NVIDIA, including founder Zhang Jianzhong, who previously served as NVIDIA's global vice president and general manager for Greater China [1][2] Financial Performance - Moer Technology's revenue exceeded 400 million CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 200% in the past three years [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 702 million CNY [2] - The company reported revenues of 46 million CNY, 124 million CNY, and 438 million CNY for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net losses of 1.894 billion CNY, 1.703 billion CNY, and 1.618 billion CNY during the same period [3] Market Potential - According to Frost & Sullivan, the AI chip market in China is projected to grow from 142.54 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,336.79 billion CNY by 2029, with a CAGR of 53.7% from 2025 to 2029 [3] - The GPU market is expected to grow rapidly, with its market share in China projected to increase from 69.9% in 2024 to 77.3% in 2029 [3] IPO and Fund Utilization - The IPO process for Moer Technology was notably swift, taking only 158 days from application acceptance to successful listing [1] - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to the development of new AI training and inference chips, new autonomous controllable graphics chips, and new AI SoC chips, as well as to supplement working capital [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has rebounded close to historical highs after a turbulent month, but persistent inflation concerns and deteriorating consumer confidence are causing unease among investors ahead of the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year [1] - The September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is seen as crucial for investors to validate economic sentiment, as soft data has been deemed unreliable [1][2] - There is a divergence in economic signals, with strong consumer spending reported by companies like Dollar General and Macy's, challenging narratives that inflation and a weak labor market would suppress spending [2] Group 2 - The PCE report and the latest data on personal spending and income are considered extremely important for investors, especially amid bearish narratives about consumer struggles [2] - Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect a 0.3% month-over-month increase in overall PCE for September, with core PCE expected to rise by 0.2%, while the annual rates are projected to remain at 2.9% and 2.8% respectively [3] - There is an 87% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, despite concerns about inflation remaining above the 2% target [3]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant price volatility this year, nearly doubling in value, but analysts express concerns about potential disappointments based on historical patterns of rapid price increases followed by sharp declines [1][4]. Historical Context - In 1980 and 2011, silver prices surged above $48 per ounce before quickly plummeting [3]. - In 1980, silver rose from $10 to $48 in four months, only to fall back to $10 two months later. Similarly, in 2011, silver reached $48 again but dropped to $26 within months [4]. Current Market Analysis - Current silver price behavior is different from past instances, with prices stabilizing around $48 and showing resilience [5]. - Analyst Craig Hemke believes that the current situation resembles gold's price movements in recent years rather than the historical patterns of silver in 1980 and 2011 [2][5]. Technical Indicators - Hemke suggests that the formation of a double top pattern is not confirmed unless silver drops below $46, indicating that current price levels represent a trading range rather than a definitive bearish signal [5]. - The price structure of silver is expected to mirror gold's breakout patterns observed in late 2023 and early 2024, with potential for further consolidation before a significant upward movement [6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a structural supply shortage, with demand expected to exceed supply by 9.5 million ounces this year, leading to a cumulative shortfall of 820 million ounces over five years [8]. - The ongoing demand-supply imbalance has persisted for years, necessitating the use of existing above-ground inventories, which may drive prices higher [8]. Future Outlook - Hemke anticipates that a breakthrough in silver prices could occur in early 2026, potentially pushing prices to new historical highs, with projections suggesting a rise to $100 per ounce by mid-2027 if trends continue [7][8]. - The shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve towards easing and lower interest rates may also support silver prices in the coming year [9].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 191,000, significantly lower than economists' expectations of 220,000, marking the lowest level in over three years [2][11] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls are expected to decrease by 9,000 in November, with the previous month's data revised from a decrease of 9,100 to a decrease of 15,500 [11] - The European Central Bank is expected to announce a GDP year-on-year revision for Q3, with a market expectation of 1.4% [15] Group 2: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.07%, the S&P 500 up 0.1%, and the Nasdaq up 0.2% [3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68% at 25,935.90 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 1.45% [4] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.40% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.01% [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Spot gold closed at $4,208.48 per ounce, up 0.15%, while spot silver fell 2.33% to $57.11 per ounce [6] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.08% to $59.74 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.91% to $63.32 per barrel [6] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Oracle's stock rose by 3%, while Intel's shares fell by 7.4%, and Nvidia's shares increased by 2% [3] - In Hong Kong, Aoda Holdings surged by 370.87% after resuming trading, while other notable gainers included Gilead Sciences and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation [4]

Group 1 - The USMCA agreement may face challenges as President Trump considers the possibility of withdrawing from it, despite the text encouraging member countries to remain until 2036 [1] - The US Trade Representative, Greer, mentioned the idea of negotiating separately with Canada and Mexico, highlighting the different economic relationships with each country [1] - The manufacturing job repatriation policy has significantly impacted Ontario's automotive industry [1] Group 2 - There are ongoing investments in advanced manufacturing sectors, with companies like General Electric and Stellantis moving production back to the US [2] - The Canadian American Business Council (CABC) and other stakeholders foresee significant challenges during the formal review of the agreement set to begin in July [2] - CABC's CEO advocates for the adoption of existing chapters of the agreement without reopening negotiations, aiming to simplify compliance costs for businesses [2] Group 3 - The potential for the US to reach a separate agreement with Mexico could pressure Canada into negotiations, reminiscent of past negotiations during the NAFTA discussions [3] - The upcoming meeting of North American leaders is seen as a crucial moment to restore confidence among public and private sector participants [3] - There is a strong public confidence in the agreement, with calls to maintain it as a legally binding trilateral framework [3] Group 4 - The automotive parts manufacturing sector anticipates similar tactics from Trump as seen during NAFTA negotiations, where threats ranged from minor modifications to complete withdrawal [4] - It is important to take Trump's statements seriously while also monitoring updates from the Federal Register for more nuanced responses [4] - The integration of Canadian companies in the US manufacturing sector is significant, with 26 Canadian firms operating 170 factories in the US, employing 47,500 workers [4]

上周美国初请失业金人数降至三年多来的最低水平，这表明尽管近期出现了一波裁员公告，但雇主们在 很大程度上仍在留住员工。 在截至11月29日的一周（包括感恩节）内，初请失业金人数减少了2.7万人，降至19.1万人。值得注意的 是，每周的失业金数据在假期前后可能会出现特别大的波动。该数字低于市场预期的22万人。 根据劳工部周四发布的数据，有助于平滑波动的新申请人数四周移动平均值上周降至21.475万人。这是 自1月份以来的最低水平。 近几个月来，许多雇主大幅缩减了招聘，包括惠普和联邦快递在内的一些大公司已经宣布了裁员。即便 如此，周四的数据表明实际裁员仍然有限，有助于缓解对劳动力市场迅速恶化的担忧。 虽然在截至11月22日的一周内，续请失业金人数（衡量领取福利人数的指标）回落至194万人，但仍接 近自2021年以来的最高水平。这种"低招聘、低解雇"的就业市场虽然抑制了初次申请失业救济的人数， 但也限制了失业的美国人找到新工作的能力。 根据ADP研究所周三发布的数据，11月美国公司削减的就业岗位数量是两年多来最多的，主要受小企业 驱动。该报告连同每周的申请失业金数据，将为美联储官员在下周决定是否连续第三次降息提供参考 ...

在迈阿密举行会谈之前，克里姆林宫官员表示，在周二与普京进行的五小时会谈中，美方提出的提 议"没有达成妥协"。 迄今为止，普京拒绝了所有和平提议，并坚持其最高要价，基辅和欧洲领导人警告称这将等同于乌克兰 的投降。随着俄罗斯军队在东部的推进，他升级了对该国能源基础设施的攻击。 乌克兰能源部周四报告称，由于俄罗斯对电网的攻击，敖德萨、顿涅茨克和第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克地区 有数万名居民断电。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基周三表示，谈判正在"相当有效"地进行，包括最近在日内瓦和佛罗里达举行的会 议。"乌克兰的声音被听到了，乌克兰的意见被听取了，"他说。"只有考虑到乌克兰的利益，才有可能 实现有尊严的和平。" 周三在椭圆形办公室接受记者采访时，特朗普表示："我不知道克里姆林宫在做什么。我可以告诉你， 他们与普京总统进行了一次相当不错的会晤。"他说，他的特使们的印象是俄罗斯希望结束冲突。 "你知道，关于乌克兰，我认为我们与他们已经制定出了相当不错的东西，"特朗普说。然而，他表示， 他觉得泽连斯基本应在2月达成协议，当时美乌总统在椭圆形办公室的会晤演变成了一场争吵。 "我认为那本来是一个更好的解决时机，"特朗普告诉记者。"但他们凭自己的 ...