AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美股不断创下历史新高之际，美联储似乎又给了它们一个上涨的理由。 Evercore ISI的Julian Emanuel也提出了类似的观点，他表示，即使他仍然认为由人工智能驱动的牛市完 好无损，并有望在2026年前达到7750点，但科技股的波动性在短期内"除了上升别无他路"。 这使得投资者正应对着摩根大通所称的"失业式扩张"。这种押注的逻辑是，疲软的就业将促使美联储保 持宽松，较低的利率将支撑估值，而放缓的工资增长将有助于企业利润率。正如高盛的David Kostin所 说："在所有其他条件相同的情况下，降温的劳动力市场是企业利润的顺风。" Lerner指出，在他追溯到1980年代的研究中，当美联储在标普500指数（SPX）离历史高点不到3%时降 息，该指数在接下来的一年里有90%的时间都录得了上涨。 "美联储的政策只是一个因素，"他说。"（但）从历史上看，当降息发生在衰退期之外，特别是当盈利 保持韧性时，股市的反应是积极的。" 这个历史剧本有助于解释为什么包括富国银行、巴克莱银行和德意志银行在内的策略师们近期都上调了 他们对标普500指数的目标，他们指 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of an impending oil surplus, global crude oil prices remain resilient, trading around $67 per barrel, contrary to forecasts suggesting a drop to $50 or lower [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), predict significant oil surpluses, with the IEA forecasting a record surplus of 3.3 million barrels per day by 2026 and the EIA estimating a surplus of 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of this year [1][2]. - The current market is characterized by a "spot premium," where immediate delivery oil is priced higher than future delivery, indicating market tightness rather than an imminent surplus [2]. Group 2: China's Role in the Oil Market - China is viewed as a stabilizing force in the oil market, actively purchasing crude oil, which traders interpret as a sign of increasing consumption rather than oversupply [2]. - The IEA projects that global oil consumption will rise by only 700,000 barrels per day next year, marking the slowest growth since 2009, excluding the pandemic period [2]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Market Reactions - OPEC+ has increased production quotas by 2.5 million barrels per day since April, but actual production increases are expected to be lower due to several member countries reaching maximum capacity [3]. - Analysts suggest that if OPEC+ fails to meet production targets, the anticipated surplus may be smaller than predicted, potentially limiting downward pressure on oil prices [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Some analysts believe that the anticipated surplus may not significantly impact oil prices, as long as demand from China continues and OPEC+ maintains limited spare capacity [3][4]. - There is a sentiment that when too many traders align on a bearish outlook, it often does not materialize, indicating that unexpected factors could influence market dynamics [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are stabilizing above $3,600 per ounce, but new upward momentum is lacking despite the Federal Reserve initiating a new round of easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact on Gold - Analysts attribute profit-taking in the gold market to investors reassessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with a cautious approach to rate cuts indicated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell [1] - Powell's description of the Fed's decision as "risk management" suggests a gradual approach rather than a significant policy shift, which supports the dollar and puts pressure on gold [1] Group 2: Analyst Predictions and Recommendations - Société Générale analysts have increased gold holdings in their multi-asset strategy, projecting gold prices to hover around $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [2] - Chris Mancini from Gabelli Funds recommends a 5% to 10% allocation to gold in investment portfolios, highlighting its attractiveness due to investor indifference [2][3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Mancini notes that gold remains an attractive investment as ordinary investors largely overlook it, with significant interest expected to return as investors seek to protect purchasing power [3] - David Miller from Catalyst Fund suggests a 15% allocation to gold, citing erosion of trust in the dollar and strong central bank demand as supporting factors for the market [4] Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - Miller emphasizes that the transition of trust from fiat currencies to hard assets like gold is driven by persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, predicting continued price increases for gold [5] - The significant U.S. government debt and deficit are expected to further undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, reinforcing gold's appeal [5] - Jerry Prior from KraneShares indicates a current allocation of 8% to 9% in gold, which has risen to about 12% due to price increases, suggesting that a minimum of 3% allocation is necessary for liquidity [6]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - The central bank will begin selling its holdings of ETFs and J-REITs, with the sale scale expected to be roughly equivalent to the scale of stock purchases from financial institutions [2] - Japan's economy is showing moderate recovery overall, but certain sectors remain weak, influenced by trade policies and tariffs, particularly from the U.S. [2][3] Group 2 - Private consumption remains resilient due to improvements in employment and income, despite consumer confidence being affected by rising prices [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding fresh food, has maintained a year-on-year increase in the range of 2.5% to 3.0%, with inflation expectations rising moderately [3] - Future economic growth in Japan may slow down due to external trade policies and declining corporate profits, although a loose financial environment may provide support [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk denied the authenticity of photos claiming to show Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, operating at a pharmaceutical production facility, calling them "fake" [1][3] Group 1: Tesla and Optimus Robot - PharmAGRI announced a letter of intent with Tesla to potentially procure up to 10,000 Optimus robots starting from the third generation [1] - The CEO of PharmAGRI, Lynn Stockwell, confirmed the collaboration with Tesla, stating that the robots would enhance their facilities and meet federal procurement requirements [4] - Tesla first introduced the Optimus prototype in 2022 and has since showcased two updated versions, but production remains in early stages with output still in the hundreds [4] Group 2: Market Implications - Musk indicated that approximately 80% of Tesla's value could come from the Optimus project, suggesting a significant future revenue potential [4] - Tesla's revenue for the previous year was reported at $97.69 billion, implying that the robot business would need to grow to around $390.8 billion annually to support Musk's valuation predictions [4]

Group 1: Industry News - China has requested to terminate orders for NVIDIA RTX Pro 6000D chips, indicating a potential shift in trade relations and technology cooperation [1] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's technological innovation capabilities have steadily improved, with the "three new" economy accounting for 18% of GDP and over 500,000 high-tech enterprises established [1] Group 2: Company News - Ganfeng Lithium has achieved full production capacity for its energy storage battery cells, establishing long-term stable supply partnerships with leading industry players [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange has implemented self-regulatory measures against investors involved in abnormal trading of Tianpu Co., highlighting the importance of compliance in trading activities [3] - Hongchang Technology's investment in a humanoid robot company has resulted in a small order scale due to limitations in downstream customer production and testing progress [3] - Changying Precision has clarified that it has no equity relationship with Yushu Technology, addressing market speculation [4] - Jinfeng Technology holds a minimal indirect stake of 0.32% in Yushu Technology, emphasizing its normal business operations [5] - XianDao Intelligent has successfully provided sodium-ion battery manufacturing solutions to leading domestic and international clients [6] - Shiyun Circuit's new generation PCB product is expected to start production in mid-2026, with potential supply to Tesla [6] - Dekeli has received overseas sample orders for its silicon-based OCS products but has not yet secured bulk orders from major overseas manufacturers [7] - Yunnan Tourism's subsidiary is in the early stages of a strategic partnership with Zhejiang Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, focusing on technology development in the tourism sector [8] - Fulian Precision has signed a 1.5 billion yuan prepayment agreement with CATL to secure lithium iron phosphate supply, enhancing their strategic cooperation [9] - Yongxin Optical has clarified that its optical components related to lithography machines contribute a minor portion to its revenue, accounting for less than 1% [10] - Capital Online's major shareholders plan to transfer 5.02% of the company's shares to Tianyang Technology at a price of 17.6 yuan per share [10] - Feilo Acoustics has no plans to enter the lithography machine sector or engage in significant asset restructuring [10] - Lihexing is in the early preparation stage for a project focused on semiconductor equipment precision components, which will not significantly impact its financial performance in the short term [10] - Wolong Electric Drive reported that its robot-related products account for approximately 2.71% of total revenue, indicating a low impact on overall performance [10] - Fengshan Group has signed a technical development contract with Tsinghua University to collaborate on sodium-ion battery electrolyte projects, with a total contract value of 2 million yuan [11] - Demingli expects storage prices to maintain an upward trend in Q4, with its SATA SSD and new self-developed SD6.0 main control chips achieving mass sales [11]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国续请失业金数据出现大乌龙，一州数据被低估近2万人 英国央行按兵不动，行长贝利仍认为会继续降息 特朗普：如果我们把油价降下来，俄乌冲突就结束了 特朗普反对英国承认巴勒斯坦国 英伟达以50亿美元入股英特尔，并达成芯片合作 科技部部长："十五五"时期，将加强原创性引领性科技攻关 媒体：生猪产能调控超预期，明确头部企业要带头减产 香港警方：价值5000万港元失窃黄金全数追回 市场盘点 周四，美国公布的初请失业金人数创下近四年来的最大降幅，扭转了前一周的大幅增长（注：数据公布数小时后，消息称北卡罗来纳州的续请数据被错误地 大幅低估逾1.9万人，劳工部一名发言人表示仍在调查此事）。美元指数收复97关口，最终收涨0.35%，报97.36。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.1080%，对 美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.5740%。 受利空的初请数据影响，现货黄金最多跳水逾40美元，最终收跌0.41%，收报3643.75美元/盎司；现货白银在下跌后回升，几乎收复失 ...

美国上周初请失业金人数创下近四年来的最大降幅，扭转了前一周异常大的增幅，并与经济中较低的裁 员水平保持一致。 根据劳工部周四公布的数据，在截至9月13日的一周内，初请失业金人数减少了3.3万人，至23.1万人。 这与今年以来的水平基本一致，离疫情前的趋势也不远。续请失业金人数（代表领取救济金的总人数） 在此前一周降至192万人，但仍高于190万人这一关键阈值。 初请失业金人数的总体下降表明，在不确定的经济环境中，公司仍在留住员工。即便如此，从近几个月 就业增长步伐的大幅放缓，到劳动力供需两端的降温，劳动力市场仍存在疲软迹象。 在全年维持利率不变后，美联储因就业市场出现压力迹象，于周四恢复了降息。美联储主席鲍威尔表 示，他已不能再将其描述为"非常稳固"，决策者们也看到了失业率上升的更大风险。 "今天的报告对上周关于裁员突然激增的任何理论都提出了质疑，"High Frequency Economics的首席经 济学家卡Carl B. Weinberg在一份报告中说。"它也削弱了美联储内部和市场上要求更多、更大幅度降息 的呼声。" 有助于消除波动的四周移动平均初请失业金人数变化不大，为24万人。 此次下降扭转了前一 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特对美联储周四降息25个基点的决定表示了认可，尽管此前美国总统特朗 普及其盟友一直施压要求采取更大幅度的行动。 过去，特朗普曾对美联储发起猛烈抨击，给主席鲍威尔起了个"太迟先生"的绰号，并呼吁进行迅速而激 进的降息。特朗普曾暗示，基准的联邦基金利率应降低3个百分点，这一立场并未在最新发布的FOMC 对未来政策路径的更新预测中得到体现。 哈塞特指出，美国第三季度经济增长强劲，趋势超过3%，这种情况通常不支持降低利率，尤其是在通 胀率仍高于美联储2%目标的情况下。 然而，特朗普曾表示，需要降息来支持陷入困境的美国房地产市场，并帮助管理国家37万亿美元债务的 融资成本。 哈塞特说，评估当前各种经济变量并决定进行渐进式降息，是一个恰当的举动。他的名字也曾出现在特 朗普挑选明年接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的候选人短名单上。哈塞特说： "我认为，对美联储来说，审视所有模型，听取各种不同意见，然后决定'在一个通胀正在减 速但仍高于目标的经济体中，我们究竟该怎么做？'是更为审慎的做法，他们在这个决定中 做出了折中选择，我认为那可能是一个相当审慎的决定。" 在周四接受采访时，哈塞特指出，本届政府以及新任美 ...

尽管部分投资者认为美联储9月决议释放的鸽派信号弱于预期，但美股投资者似乎已准备好抓住周三的 小幅回调机会。 这一反弹动力部分源于市场对美联储主席鲍威尔"降息25个基点属于风险管理"言论的重新解读。尽管有 人将其视为"预防性降息且后续降息空间有限"的信号，但高盛等机构反驳称，鲍威尔的表态实际上暗示 了10月降息的必然性。 摩根大通交易团队在当日分析中旗帜鲜明地建议投资者"逢低买入"，并预测美股可能迎来"爆炸性上 涨"时刻。 以安德鲁·泰勒（Andrew Tyler）为首的团队指出，美联储此次降息符合其"鸽派降息"预期，且仍预计年 内再降息两次。"这些预防性降息为多头提供了支撑，尤其是在周二零售销售数据超预期的背景下"，他 们在报告中强调。 经济数据与盈利周期的双重驱动 泰勒团队将未来股市上涨的核心动力锚定在两大关键数据上：10月3日公布的9月非农就业报告，以及10 月15日发布的当月通胀数据。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 若就业数据在连续两月疲软后反弹，且通胀"保持可控"，叠加三季度财报季（主要集中在10月第三周） 的强劲表现，美股可能迎来"突破性行情"。"对于那些期待年底标普50 ...