Group 1 - The article discusses the current market outlook for international commodities, specifically focusing on gold prices and their potential movements based on key support and resistance levels [2][5]. - The major scenario indicates a bearish outlook if prices remain below 4210.4, while a bullish outlook is suggested if prices exceed this level [5]. - Key support levels are identified at 4187.14, 4183.26, and 4178.18, while resistance levels are set at 4196.61, 4202.2, and 4217.6 [5]. Group 2 - The article also covers foreign exchange currency pairs, including the US Dollar Index and various currency pairs such as Euro/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY [7][9][11][13]. - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is projected if prices stay below 155.33, with key support levels at 154.39, 153.63, and 153.15, and resistance levels at 155.01, 155.46, and 155.76 [15].

自美联储10月实施今年第二次降息以来，市场对其下周会议的预期一直起伏不定。 在10月降息决策出台前，分析师普遍预期2025年将迎来第三次降息，期货市场也几乎完全消化了这一预 期，但美联储主席鲍威尔随后在新闻发布会上的表态促使预期大幅重置。他称12月降息"并非板上钉 钉"，市场定价随即回落至五五开的状态。 在接下来的几周里，分析师们态度暧昧，多位地区联储主席发表了鹰派言论，但纽约联储主席威廉姆斯 11月21日表态支持12月降息，这一立场让市场大幅转向宽松预期。市场普遍认为鲍威尔与威廉姆斯立场 一致。 9月的就业报告或许也起到了推波助澜的作用。尽管报告显示就业岗位增长强劲，但失业率上升至 4.4%，与美联储9月预测的年末4.5%目标相去不远。 英国《金融时报》货币政策雷达（Monetary Policy Radar）团队对分析师的最新调查显示，所有人都一 致认为，美联储将在12月10日再次降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.5%至3.75%的区间。 但这并不意味着12月的决策会一帆风顺。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德曾反对10月的降息决定，此次他可能 再度投出反对票。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也可能加入他的行列，后者曾 ...

俄罗斯在2022年宣布，经过西方和基辅斥为骗局的公投后，乌克兰的卢甘斯克、顿涅茨克、赫尔松和扎 波罗热地区现已成为俄罗斯的一部分。大多数国家承认这些地区，以及克里米亚是乌克兰的一部分。 普京周二在克里姆林宫接见了美国特使维特科夫和特朗普女婿库什纳，并表示俄罗斯已接受了美国关于 乌克兰的一些提议，谈判应该继续。 俄罗斯国家通讯社RIA援引普京的话说，他与维特科夫和库什纳的会面"非常有用"，并且是基于他和特 朗普8月在阿拉斯加讨论的提议之上的。 俄罗斯总统普京在周四发表的一次采访中表示，除非乌克兰军队撤出，否则俄罗斯将通过武力完全控制 乌克兰的顿巴斯地区，而基辅方面已断然拒绝了这一要求。 根据俄罗斯国家电视台播放的片段，普京在访问新德里之前告诉《今日印度》，"要么我们通过武力解 放这些领土，要么乌克兰军队离开这些领土。" 乌克兰表示，不愿将莫斯科未能在战场上赢得的本国领土拱手相让给俄罗斯，乌克兰总统泽连斯基也表 示，莫斯科不应因其发动的冲突而获得奖赏。 俄罗斯目前控制着乌克兰19.2%的领土，包括其在2014年吞并的克里米亚、卢甘斯克、顿涅茨克超过 80%的地区、赫尔松和扎波罗热约75%的地区，以及哈尔科夫、苏梅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is currently opposing measures to ban stock trading by members of Congress, suggesting that such a ban could deter qualified individuals from running for office [1][2] Group 1: Legislative Actions - A bipartisan group of lawmakers, including Representatives Anna Paulina Luna and Tim Burchett, is pushing for a bill that would prohibit members of Congress from trading stocks [2] - The proposed legislation requires current members to divest their personal stock holdings within 180 days of the bill's enactment, while newly elected members must do so within 90 days [2] - The ban would also extend to the spouses and minor children of members, although investments in mutual funds and ETFs would still be permitted [2] Group 2: Political Dynamics - Johnson previously expressed support for a stock trading ban, citing the need to eliminate any appearance of impropriety [2] - The Democratic Party largely supports the ban on stock trading by Congress members, but progress may be stalled due to Republican opposition [3] - Johnson predicts that the effort to gather 218 signatures for a discharge petition to force a vote on the bill will likely fail [2][3]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley has raised its target for the CSI 300 index to 4840 points by December 2026, indicating a renewed interest in Chinese assets as a growth market [1] - Barclays Bank remains optimistic about global and European stock markets, forecasting an 8% increase in earnings per share in Europe next year, supported by robust fundamentals and anticipated monetary easing [3] - Nomura Securities predicts that the MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) index will achieve returns in the double digits by 2026, driven by strong earnings forecasts and supportive macro trends [8] Group 2: Commodity Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs expresses caution regarding copper prices, stating that the recent surge above $11,000 per ton lacks fundamental support and is primarily based on future supply tightness expectations [2] - Fitch Ratings has downgraded short- to medium-term oil price forecasts due to significant supply surplus, while raising European natural gas price predictions to $9 per cubic meter for 2026 [4] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Deutsche Bank highlights that the global AI investment theme is favorable for Asia, although ongoing debates about valuation and ownership may increase market volatility [6] - Citic Securities emphasizes the ongoing growth of the AI industry, noting that overseas markets are ahead of domestic ones in terms of technological progress and market space [9] - Citic Securities also expects mainstream storage and niche storage prices to continue rising in the first half of 2026 due to high visibility of shortages [10] Group 4: Consumer Trends - Huatai Securities identifies four key investment themes for 2026, including the rise of domestic brands, AI-enabled technology consumption, emotional consumption trends, and undervalued high-dividend blue-chip stocks [11][14] - Open Source Securities points out the changing dynamics in the gold and jewelry industry, suggesting a focus on high-end and fashionable gold brands due to the rise of emotional consumption [12] Group 5: Industry Developments - Open Source Securities notes that the wind power industry is expected to see profit recovery due to stable domestic demand and improved bidding rules, with a projected increase in prices for wind turbine components [13] - Citic Securities reports that MDI and TDI prices are on the rise due to supply tightening, benefiting leading companies with strong cost control and technology advantages [15] - Galaxy Securities anticipates that leading companies in the express delivery sector will see their market share stabilize and performance potential increase due to the optimization of industry competition [16]

华尔街两家最大的公司表示，人工智能热潮远非投机狂热。贝莱德和美国银行表示，这一周期是由真实 的企业投资、盈利和生产力增长驱动的，而不是那种定义了2000年代初互联网泡沫的非理性繁荣。 贝莱德智库负责人Jean Boivin在周二的媒体圆桌会议上表示，"我们认为泡沫框架在这个阶段对投资者 来说并不那么有用，我们要避免仅仅把一切都放在一种后视镜式的指标或评估上，"他继续说道，并指 出鉴于建设仍在以"前所未有"的规模和速度展开，将AI热潮描述为泡沫是"不完整的"。 Boivin还指出了当今市场中存在的健康怀疑态度。"关于泡沫潜力的讨论如此之多……人们意识到了风 险，"他说。"只有当没有相关讨论时，我们才应该更加担心。" "与AI建设相关的资本支出雄心是如此之大，以至于微观即宏观，"该公司在其展望中写道，预计到2030 年全球企业支出计划将在5万亿至8万亿美元之间，其中大部分在美国。 贝莱德补充道，"投资者面临的挑战是：协调巨大的资本支出计划与潜在的AI收入，它们的数量级会匹 配吗？" 该公司还指出了建设的物理限制，从算力到电网，并指出到本十年末，AI数据中心可能会消耗美国15% 至20%的电力。这使得建设既具有变革 ...

Group 1 - The UN Secretary-General António Guterres criticized Israel's military actions in Gaza, stating there is a "fundamental error" in their approach, which disregards civilian casualties and destruction in Gaza while failing to eliminate Hamas [1] - Guterres highlighted that over 70,000 people have died in Gaza during the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, raising concerns about potential war crimes committed by Israel [1] - Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon responded by condemning Guterres for not visiting Israel and accused him of morally reprehensible behavior by consistently criticizing Israel [1] Group 2 - Guterres praised the United States for its role in improving humanitarian aid access to Gaza, emphasizing the need for continued cooperation in humanitarian efforts [2] - The UN has faced challenges in delivering aid to Gaza, attributing these obstacles to Israel and the chaotic situation, while Israel accuses Hamas of stealing aid [2] Group 3 - Guterres expressed that negotiations to resolve the Ukraine conflict appear to be stalled, emphasizing the importance of adhering to international law and territorial integrity in any proposed solutions [3] - He warned that violations of these principles could lead to a dangerous precedent globally, undermining the significance of international law [3] Group 4 - Guterres addressed the impact of U.S. foreign aid cuts under President Trump, stating that while it created opportunities for UN reform, it has had severe humanitarian consequences, leading to increased mortality rates [4] Group 5 - Guterres criticized U.S. military actions against drug trafficking vessels near Venezuela, asserting that these actions do not comply with international law and that military confrontation is not a viable solution [5]

尽管黄金尚未回到10月创下的每盎司4380美元左右历史高点，但据一位市场策略师表示，当前金价已接 近其公允价值。 在近期接受Kitco新闻采访时，WisdomTree大宗商品与宏观研究主管尼泰什·沙阿（Nitesh Shah）表示， 全球经济充斥着大量不确定性，尽管金价波动性很大，但在每次新的突破后都能建立更高的支撑位，这 并不令人意外。 他补充道，等待金价更大幅度回调的投资者可能会继续失望，因为贵金属预计将从日益疲软的经济中获 得坚实支撑，这将迫使美联储在下周及2026年期间降息，从而推低名义和实际债券收益率，并削弱美 元。 尽管黄金在10月未能站稳每盎司4380美元上方，并遭遇了大规模获利了结，但抛售压力始终有限，支撑 位维持在每盎司4000美元上方。 "金价可能跌破4000美元，但这需要巨大的推动力，几乎可以说是不可能的，"他说。 沙阿表示，在熊市情景下，利率必须回升至5%。但他补充道，若出现这种情况，美国经济可能会陷入 衰退，这将使黄金成为具有吸引力的避险资产。 "只有在经济活动异常强劲、利率必须进一步上升，且投资者认为不再需要持有黄金的情景下，金价才 会大幅下跌，"他说，"但目前来看这根本不可能。每 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo successfully advocated for a rate hike in December, signaling a shift in monetary policy despite previous opposition from Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, who had labeled rate hikes as "foolish" [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Hike Plans - The market anticipates a 25 basis point increase in interest rates to 0.75% later this month, with an 80% probability priced in following Ueda's comments [1][2]. - The upcoming rate hike would mark the highest level in 30 years, as Ueda aims to address the legacy of aggressive stimulus measures from his predecessor [2][4]. - Ueda's communication strategy is crucial for conveying the long-term path of interest rate increases, given the lack of consensus on Japan's neutral interest rate [1][6]. Group 2: Government Support - Finance Minister Kitagawa Satsuki expressed no objections to Ueda's statements, indicating that the government will not hinder the rate hike [2][3]. - Kishida's advisors have shown cautious agreement with the rate hike, suggesting that if the yen remains weak, the government may accept the December increase [2][3]. - The political landscape has shifted, with Ueda's discussions with Kishida leading to a more favorable environment for the rate hike [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market remains tense as investors focus on Ueda's future rate hike signals, with concerns about the yen's depreciation influencing political support for the Bank of Japan's decisions [1][5]. - Analysts note that uncertainty regarding the extent of future rate hikes complicates long-term bond purchases, as the Bank of Japan's neutral rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2.5% [6]

由于担心美股市场日益集中于少数科技股，且人工智能（AI）领域存在泡沫风险，英国养老金基金正 削减其美股敞口。 为数百万英国储户管理着超2000亿英镑资产的多家养老金计划向《金融时报》表示，近几个月来，它们 已将资产配置转向其他区域，或为应对潜在股价下跌增加了防护措施。 此番调整之际，受英伟达（NVDA）、Alphabet（GOOGL）和Meta（META）等所谓"七巨 头"（Magnificent Seven）股票推动，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数（IXIC）今年已飙升逾20%，自 2023年初以来更是翻倍有余。 这引发了市场对"少数股票主导市场"的担忧，且泡沫风险可能导致退休储户面临大幅抛售的冲击。 "我们认识到美股相关的特定风险，例如关税措施以及大型科技股的集中化问题，"英国金融服务机构菲 尼克斯集团控股公司（Phoenix Group）旗下标准人寿（Standard Life）投资方案主管卡勒姆·斯图尔特 （Callum Stewart）表示。该公司管理着360亿英镑的可持续多资产基金，服务200万名成员，其股票资 产中约60%配置于北美市场。 就距离退休还有30年的储户而言，其资产中通常有70%至8 ...