8月初，美国某机构裁决明确将1公斤和100盎司金条（美国最主流交易规格）纳入对等关税征收范围，这一突 如其来的政策冲击瞬间让全球黄金市场陷入混乱。黄金出口近乎停滞，海关数据显示瑞士8月对美黄金出口量 从上月的30余吨暴跌99%至仅0.3吨。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 欧洲主要黄金精炼中心瑞士对美国的黄金出口在8月遭遇历史性暴跌，起因是美国一项临时加征金条关税的裁 决引发市场恐慌。 尽管白宫迅速回应称将"澄清关税相关误解"，美国总统特朗普更于黄金征税传闻出现的一周后在社交媒体明确 表态"黄金不会被征税"，但金条关税豁免直至9月初才正式生效，黄金贸易链才逐步恢复运转。 作为全球最重要的黄金精炼枢纽，瑞士目前面临着发达国家中最高的39%美国进口关税。今年一季度创纪录的 360亿美元黄金出口，占瑞士对美贸易顺差的三分之二以上。 关税政策的冲击在8月数据中全面显现：经季节性调整后的瑞士对美总出口额环比下降22%，其中黄金出口量 暴跌直接拖累整体表现。瑞士联邦海关总署数据显示，8月黄金出口总量环比减少19%至不足105吨，但对中国 出口量却激增两倍多至35吨，折射出供应链的紧急调整。 这场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has agreed to invest $5 billion in Intel, aiming to support the struggling competitor while both companies will collaborate on chip development for PCs and data centers [2][3]. Investment Details - Nvidia will purchase Intel common stock at $23.28 per share, making it one of Intel's largest shareholders with a stake of less than 5% [3]. - Intel's market capitalization was $116 billion as of the last close, while Nvidia's market cap exceeds $4 trillion [3]. Strategic Collaboration - The partnership will integrate Nvidia's graphics technology into Intel's upcoming PC chips and provide processors for Nvidia's data center products [2][4]. - Nvidia's CEO emphasized the historical significance of this collaboration, merging Nvidia's AI and accelerated computing systems with Intel's CPU and x86 ecosystem [4]. Market Dynamics - Intel's reliance on Nvidia's technology highlights a shift in the computing industry, where Intel, once a dominant player, now seeks support from its former rival [3][5]. - The collaboration aims to enhance Intel's competitiveness against AMD in the desktop and laptop markets [4]. Financial Context - The investment follows a previous $2 billion injection from SoftBank into Intel, indicating growing capital reserves for the company [3]. - Nvidia's sales are projected to reach approximately $200 billion this year, with its data center division surpassing the total sales of any other chip company [6]. Industry Positioning - Intel has lagged in AI-specific computing investments, exacerbating its challenges due to manufacturing technology delays [6]. - The partnership reflects Intel's shift towards a more open strategy under its new leadership, seeking collaboration and opening its factories to competitors [6].

弱势日元会给出口带来提振，但它一直是决策者们担忧的源头，因为它会抬高进口成本，并且是导致通 胀远高于日本央行2%目标的一个因素。 下田知行说，美元兑日元汇率升破150，也可能引来美国政府的抱怨，后者正推行一项能提振美国出口 的弱势美元政策。 他说，如果股价保持坚挺，并且定于10月1日公布的"短观"商业景气调查没有大幅恶化，日本央行很可 能会在其10月29-30日的会议上加息。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 前日本央行官员下田知行周四表示，即使支持激进货币宽松政策的高市早苗赢得执政党党首竞选并成为 下一任首相，日本央行也可能在10月加息。 高市早苗目前被视为10月4日自民党总裁竞选的领跑者，其因公开反对日本央行的加息以及呼吁加大支 出以重振日本经济而备受瞩目。 她可能成为日本下一任首相的前景，已导致一些市场参与者买入日元和日本国债，认为这可能会阻碍日 本央行加息。 但曾在日本央行货币事务部门任职的下田知行预计党首竞选，包括高市早苗可能获胜的结果，对货币政 策的影响有限。下田知行在接受采访时说，"虽然她可能会主张增加财政支出，但我怀疑高市早苗能否 推行可能削弱日元的政策。" 日本央行去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England maintained its policy interest rate at 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, while reducing its quantitative tightening pace from £100 billion to £70 billion [1][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was supported by 7 members, while 2 members voted for a rate cut [1] - The Bank of England warned that future rate cuts will be "gradual and cautious," depending on the easing of underlying inflationary pressures [3] - The central bank's latest decision contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve, which announced rate cuts earlier [5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Current inflation in the UK is nearly double the Bank of England's target of 2%, with expectations that inflation will rise to 4% this month [5][6] - The Bank of England noted that progress in alleviating wage pressures has outpaced that of price pressures, but recent inflation increases could create greater pressure on both fronts [4] - The UK economy is performing better than expected, with GDP growth forecast for Q3 revised up from 0.3% to 0.4% [6]

Group 1 - Fitch indicates that the Federal Reserve is fully supporting the labor market and will tolerate higher inflation in the short term, with a decisive rate cut cycle expected in 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares, suggesting that the "slow bull" market for A-shares appears more stable than before, with a focus on themes like private enterprises and artificial intelligence [1] - KPMG warns that extending current Federal Reserve policies into next year could lead to excessive stimulus, potentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of higher inflation expectations among consumers and businesses [1] Group 2 - BlackRock states that the prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts may depend on the continued weakness of the labor market, with future policy actions likely to be data-dependent [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the Federal Reserve is not in a rate-cutting sprint mode, but has restarted the rate-cutting process due to weaker-than-expected labor market conditions [2] - Nomura has adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve, predicting a 25 basis point cut in October and subsequent cuts at each remaining meeting this year [3] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank raises its gold price forecast for next year to $4,000 per ounce, citing favorable foreign exchange and interest rate environments [4] - ING reports that the latest UK inflation data does not significantly alter the probability of further rate cuts by the Bank of England later this year [5][6] - Rabobank anticipates that European natural gas prices will stabilize at high levels starting in the second quarter of next year due to new liquefied natural gas capacity coming online [6] Group 4 - Bank of America survey reveals that 59% of European investors view the weakness of the US labor market as the biggest risk to global economic growth [7] - CICC reports that the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates two more rate cuts this year, but there is significant divergence among committee members regarding the timing and extent of these cuts [8] - CICC also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in October, but warns that the threshold for future cuts will become increasingly high due to rising inflation [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities raises its forecast for the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year from two to three, anticipating cuts in October and December [10] - CITIC Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve may cumulatively cut rates by 50 basis points this year, with the policy rate expected to be between 3.5% and 3.75% by year-end [11] - CITIC Securities also suggests that the dollar may remain weak during this rate-cutting cycle, while gold is expected to perform well [12] Group 6 - Zheshang Securities highlights that the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is a beginning rather than an end, with potential risks of inflation if cuts are too aggressive [14] - CICC notes that only a few companies possess the full-stack capabilities necessary to advance to the "embodied intelligence" level in robotics [15] - Galaxy Securities anticipates a seasonal increase in cement prices as demand is expected to recover from September to November [16]

来源：川阅全球宏观 我们一直强调，降息是问题的开始，不是结束。降多了、降快了，通胀是风险；降少了、降慢了，特朗普是风险。点阵图暗示年内75bp降息，相较6月增 加了25bp，还是契合了鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上谨慎宽松的论调，但这和米兰及其背后白宫想要的150bp相差不小。美联储的独立性之争才刚刚开始。 往后看，劳动力市场降温与通胀粘性的"数据悖论"，米兰任命带来的政治博弈等都使得美联储的决策面临"两难"局面，也将后续宽松路径的走势推向复杂 化。在白宫的施压下，市场可能还是会时不时定价年内比75bp更多的降息。而从经济动态来看，我们依旧对持续宽松后的增长和通胀组合保持持续关注， 连续降息不会一帆风顺，在特朗普的政策组合下，"金发女郎式"的软着陆（增长复苏+低通胀）难度更大，"滞"和"胀"的按钮更容易被触发。 9月利率如期下调25bp，意料之外的是，美联储官员展现出了高度的团结性。此前市场预期的沃勒和鲍曼并未对此投出反对票，仅米兰一人支持降息 50bp，表明联储内部并未完全因受迫于政治压力而做出过度激进的表态。 但相较于降息本身，更值得关注的是会议传递出的政策信号。从会议声明、鲍威尔后续的表态以及点阵图上，本次会 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普与阿联酋的关系又出现最新演变，两笔相隔仅两周的交易引发广泛争议。一手拿20亿投资，一手放AI芯片出海，突显出资本、权力与家族 势力高度重叠的现实。 一笔是阿布扎比王室核心人物谢赫·塔赫农（Sheikh Tahnoon），向"世界自由金融（World Liberty Financial）"投资20亿美元，这是由特朗普与其密友史蒂夫· 维特科夫（Steve Witkoff）家族共同创办的加密货币公司；另一笔则是白宫同意向阿联酋开放数十万片稀缺的高性能AI芯片。这两笔交易之间，仅仅相隔了 2周。 特朗普的儿子埃里克·特朗普（Eric Trump）周二在被问及此事时，迅速为自己和家人辩护。 "我们和亨特·拜登差得远……那家伙在外面卖'手指画'。" "我父亲是第一个没有从总统职位中赚钱的人。"埃里克·特朗普说，"我们一直是连续创业的资本家，我们一直都有公司。加密货币的出现是出于一种必要 性，因为我们被所有银行拒绝往来，只能找到一种新方式。" 《纽约时报》指出，白宫和世界自由金融公司的发言人均否认这两笔交易存在任何关联。报道还称， "没有证据表明其中 ...

Core Points - A confrontation over U.S. government funding is intensifying, with Democrats proposing a significant counter-proposal that increases the risk of a government shutdown on October 1 [2] - The Democratic proposal includes healthcare policy reforms, which House Speaker Mike Johnson has stated have "zero" chance of becoming law as part of the spending bill [2] - The proposal aims to repeal Medicaid cuts enacted in July and seeks to extend Obamacare tax subsidies, potentially costing hundreds of billions [2] Group 1 - The Democratic counter-proposal lists priorities that could form the basis for any future compromise plan, but no serious negotiations have taken place so far [2] - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has indicated that Republicans have not requested negotiations, suggesting a lack of willingness to engage [2] - The proposed temporary funding bill from Democrats would last until October 31, just before the insurance enrollment period begins [3] Group 2 - Republicans need at least seven Senate Democrats' support to pass a government funding bill, but Schumer has been firmly opposed to the Republican proposal [3] - Republican leaders have stated they do not intend to negotiate healthcare as part of the temporary funding process, viewing any significant healthcare-related proposals as unserious [3] - Concerns have been raised by Republican Senator Susan Collins about the lack of bipartisan support, with pressure from Schumer on Democrats to resist crossing party lines [3]

美国总统特朗普对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡深感不满，但问题在于，他的愤怒是否足以促使其采取行动。 近几周，特朗普多次告知助手，内塔尼亚胡更倾向于用军事力量迫使哈马斯投降，而非采用他青睐 的"谈判停火"方案。上周，以色列袭击了位于卡塔尔的哈马斯谈判人员，这一行动危及脆弱的和平谈 判，特朗普的不满彻底爆发。 据知情的官员透露，特朗普在谈及内塔尼亚胡时表示："他在耍我。"当时，他正与包括国务卿马可·鲁 比奥（Marco Rubio）在内的高级助手商议，如何回应这一"肆无忌惮的袭击"。 特朗普对内塔尼亚胡时而激烈的态度，令华盛顿感到困惑：向来喜欢在关系中占据主导地位的特朗普， 为何愿意让内塔尼亚胡一再公然违背自己的意愿？ "这有点令人困惑，且违背常理。"沙洛姆·利普纳（Shalom Lipner）表示。他曾在25年间连续为七任以 色列总理效力，现任华盛顿智库"大西洋理事会"研究员。 利普纳指出："内塔尼亚胡的举动延长了加沙战争，给特朗普与该地区其他美国盟友的关系制造了麻 烦，也让《亚伯拉罕协议》的扩容变得异常困难。"《亚伯拉罕协议》指以色列与部分阿拉伯国家实现 关系正常化的协议。 特朗普曾多次用尖锐言辞评价内塔尼亚胡，例如 ...

换句话说，投资者似乎无法在"借贷成本下降的利好"与"劳动力市场的担忧"之间做出权衡。 鲍威尔还承认，尽管特朗普关税政策的影响可能是短期的，但通胀上行风险依然存在。 美联储降息后，市场通常会出现波动，但在周四凌晨，投资者似乎真的对央行释放的信号"摸不着头 脑"。 Brandywine Global投资组合经理杰克·麦金太尔（Jack McIntyre）表示，由于未来一年还将实施多少次降 息的前景不明朗，投资者可能会面临更大的市场波动。 "美联储内部对2026年政策的看法存在显著分歧，这可能意味着明年金融市场波动会加剧，"麦金太尔周 三通过电子邮件向《市场观察》（MarketWatch）分享的评论中称，"现在，我们所有人都回归'数据依 赖'模式，首先要关注的就是周四公布的初请失业金人数数据。" 不过，在混乱之中，有一点十分明确：美联储对美国劳动力市场的疲软愈发担忧。 美联储如期宣布降息25个基点后，股市起初应声上涨，标普500指数（SPX）、道指（DJI）和罗素2000 指数（RUT）均在消息公布后短线走高。 但在美联储主席鲍威尔将周四凌晨的决策描述为"风险管理式降息"后，至少股市的情绪迅速降温。 TS Lomb ...