Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is expected to focus on interest rate trends and the state of the U.S. economy, with a high probability of a third rate cut this year. Additionally, updates regarding the Fed's asset portfolio may be announced following the conclusion of the balance sheet reduction process on December 1 [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - In October, the Federal Reserve announced plans to reinvest the principal of maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury bills to address pressures in the repo market, although this measure has not fully resolved the issues [1]. - Overnight rates have frequently exceeded the Fed's target range, indicating that banks continue to rely on the central bank's liquidity support tools, such as the standing repo facility [2][1]. - The Fed is expected to announce a "reserve management purchase" plan of approximately $45 billion per month to maintain order in the repo market and ensure smooth transmission of monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Expansion Debate - The future trajectory of the Fed's balance sheet is viewed as increasingly uncertain, despite expectations of expansion due to pressures in the repo market [3]. - There are significant disagreements within the Fed regarding how to implement the ample reserves policy, raising doubts about the inevitability of balance sheet expansion [4]. - Dallas Fed President Logan has expressed support for a more flexible approach to balance sheet expansion, suggesting that the scale and timing of reserve management purchases should not be mechanical [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - The argument for reducing the Fed's influence on the economy through a smaller balance sheet is gaining traction, particularly from figures like Stephen Miran, who advocate for regulatory reforms to alleviate pressures in the repo market [5][6]. - Miran has criticized the "regulatory dominance" that leads to banks holding excessive reserves, suggesting that relaxing capital rules for Treasury securities could reduce the required reserve levels [5]. - Current regulatory adjustments under Fed Governor Bowman aim to allow banks to hold more Treasuries without additional capital requirements, potentially increasing capacity by approximately $2.1 trillion [6]. Group 4: Future Implications - The anticipated changes in regulatory frameworks and the potential for a new Fed chair next year could further alleviate pressures in the repo market and allow for lower reserve levels [7]. - These adjustments align with the previous administration's goal of increasing private sector involvement, although they carry risks of increasing bank size and leverage [7].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has urged the Italian government to reconsider its proposal to declare the country's gold reserves as property of the people, citing concerns over potential government sales of gold and threats to the independence of the central bank [2][3]. Group 1 - The ECB criticized the Italian government's request for an updated version of the proposal, stating that it remains unclear about the specific purpose of the revised draft [2]. - The ECB emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Bank of Italy in managing its gold reserves, which total approximately 2,452 tons, making Italy the third-largest holder of gold reserves after the US and Germany [2]. - Some lawmakers from the right-wing party of Prime Minister Meloni have suggested amending the upcoming national budget to confirm that the reserves are managed by the central bank but "belong to the Italian people" [2]. Group 2 - The Brothers of Italy party, to which Meloni belongs, has previously raised issues regarding political control over the country's reserves, with far-right coalition members proposing to return control of gold to the state as early as 2019 [3]. - The ECB had previously responded to such proposals by stating that they violate EU treaties, which mandate the central bank's independence from government influence [3]. - As gold prices have surged this year, some countries are considering actions regarding their gold reserves, with Russia confirming the sale of physical gold and former Philippine central bank officials suggesting partial sales to realize profits [3].

摩根大通分析师在9月的一份报告中告知客户，过去两年，与人工智能相关的公司贡献了标普500指数约 75%的回报。尽管对人工智能泡沫的担忧日益加剧，但这一趋势尚无消退迹象。 美联储宽松政策助力 美联储在9月和10月实施了降息，市场普遍预期本周还将再次降息，这一举措通过降低企业借贷成本、 支撑高企的股票估值，进一步利好股市。奥本海默表示，美联储降息是标普500指数上涨的主要催化剂 之一。 奥本海默市场策略师约翰·斯托尔茨弗斯（John Stoltzfus）周一在给客户的报告中写道："要实现我们 2026年的目标价，核心在于货币政策、财政政策，以及创新与企业盈利增长的持续推进——这些因素均 已对股价形成支撑，也是明年盈利和营收增长的关键。" 这位策略师还称，前景进一步向好的一点是，若通胀保持可控，美联储明年"可能会再将基准利率下调 一到两次"。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 三家华尔街券商发布的新年股市展望，均传递出一致的看涨信号：美股即将迎来大幅上涨。奥本海默 （Oppenheimer）预测，标普500指数到2026年底将飙升至8100点，较上周五收盘价上涨18%。沃尔夫 研究（Wolf ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 投资者加大了对欧元区明年可能加息的押注，而预计美国则将继续降低借贷成本，这一转变可能进一步拖累本已疲软的美元。 互换市场定价目前显示，欧洲央行2026年加息的可能性高于降息。相比之下，普遍被认为在周三下次会议上几乎肯定会降息的美联储，明年预计还将再降息 至少两次。 投资者还押注，随着经济好转，澳洲联储和加拿大央行明年将加息，而英国央行则被广泛预期将在明年夏天前结束降息周期。 道明证券（TD Securities）的普贾·库姆拉（Pooja Kumra）将明年描述为欧洲央行、加拿大央行和澳洲联储的潜在"转折点"，并补充道："鹰派声音愈发响 亮。" 尽管这一转变可能会缩小美国与其他国家的利差，但借贷成本的相反走势可能会加剧美元的下跌——美元今年以来兑一篮子货币已下跌逾8%。 目前，欧元区和其他几个主要经济体的利率低于美国，部分原因是它们的经济增长更为缓慢。 但欧洲央行和其他央行的政策制定者似乎不太可能进一步降息以刺激增长，因特朗普的贸易战对美国贸易伙伴的损害已被证明低于此前预期。 互换市场定价目前显示，到明年年底，欧洲央行平均将加息0.08个百分点。相比之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump is expected to have a more profound long-term impact on the central bank than immediate market reactions suggest [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The market is focused on the expectation that the new chair will be more inclined to lower interest rates than the current chair, Jerome Powell [1]. - Kevin Hassett is highlighted as a leading candidate, perceived as the most dovish option among the five shortlisted candidates [1]. - If Hassett is appointed, it could lead to adjustments in market pricing, including lower short-term Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and rising inflation expectations [1]. Group 2: Challenges for the New Chair - Any new chair will require time to establish authority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is currently divided and lacks a unified strategic vision [2]. - The new chair will face challenges related to the committee's reliance on lagging data for policy decisions, complicating the resolution of issues like labor market weaknesses [2]. - The committee members are sensitive to accusations of yielding to political pressure, which may lead to resistance against a new chair's initiatives [2]. Group 3: Need for Reform - There is a pressing need for reform within the Federal Reserve, as recent years have seen failures in analysis, forecasting, policy execution, and communication [2][3]. - A Gallup poll indicates that only 9% of Americans rate the Federal Reserve's performance as "excellent," highlighting the need for improvements to maintain its independence [3]. - The new chair must implement reforms that include clarifying inflation targets, updating communication practices, enhancing accountability, and shifting focus from demand management to supply-side development [3].

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.60% during its final meeting of the year, ending hopes for further rate cuts as inflation is expected to rise again in the second half of 2025 [1][2] - Analysts believe the easing cycle of the RBA has concluded, with potential for rate hikes as early as February next year if inflation pressures persist [1][2] - The housing market is experiencing upward pressure on prices, which may be alleviated by the shift in interest rate expectations [1] Group 2 - Recent data indicates a broad-based rise in inflation, although some of this may be attributed to temporary factors, necessitating close monitoring of inflation trends [2][4] - Economic activity is recovering, driven by increased private demand, with both consumption and investment contributing to this growth [2][4] - The labor market remains slightly tight, with a gradual increase in unemployment and slowing job growth, yet many businesses still struggle to find suitable labor [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The influx of foreign investors into Japan's bond market is significantly increasing market volatility, with overseas investors now accounting for approximately 65% of monthly cash transactions, up from 12% in 2009 [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors are expected to purchase a record amount of Japanese government bonds this year, despite the risks associated with rapid capital withdrawal [1]. - The current public debt in Japan is projected to reach about $9.3 trillion, approximately 230% of GDP, raising concerns about potential confidence shocks [4]. - Foreign traders have more investment options compared to their Japanese counterparts, making it easier for them to reduce their holdings [5]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Risks - Japan's bond market is increasingly susceptible to sharp market fluctuations, similar to those experienced in the UK during Liz Truss's brief premiership [4]. - The volatility of Japanese government bonds has more than doubled since 2021, as the Bank of Japan reduces its market participation [8]. - The rising yields and volatility in Japan could disrupt global financial markets, especially if the Bank of Japan delays adjusting interest rates [11]. Group 3: Domestic vs. Foreign Investor Dynamics - Domestic investors still hold the majority of Japanese government bonds, with the Bank of Japan owning over 50% of outstanding debt, providing a stabilizing effect that foreign investors cannot replicate [6]. - Foreign investors tend to have a higher turnover rate and are more opportunistic, which can lead to disproportionate impacts on the market compared to local holders [8]. Group 4: Government Response and Policy Implications - Prime Minister Suga's administration is implementing a significant spending plan, which may influence foreign investor confidence [1]. - The government is aware of the underperformance of Japanese bonds relative to other markets and is in a better position to address these issues compared to previous administrations [8].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 12月08日，接棒摩尔线程的另一国产GPU"独角兽"的沐曦股份公布新股中签结果，中签号码共有19331 个。被游资爆炒的百亿玄学概念股合富中国发布异动公告，称公司股价累计涨幅已严重偏离基本面。家 电龙头美的集团宣布已完成100亿元股份回购方案，拟注销公司总股本1.24%。 以下是盘后公告精选： 沐曦股份：新股中签结果公布中签号码共有19331个 沐曦股份公告称，发行人和保荐人12月8日上午进行沐曦股份首次公开发行股票网上发行摇号抽签仪 式。凡参与网上发行申购沐曦股份A股股票的投资者持有的申购配号尾数与上述号码相同的，则为中签 号码。中签号码共有19331个，每个中签号码只能认购500股沐曦股份A股股票。 合富中国：公司股价累计涨幅已严重偏离基本面 据合富中国公告，合富医疗科技股份有限公司股票价格于2025年12月4日、12月5日及12月8日连续三个 交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%。公司股价累计涨幅已严重偏离基本面，投资者参与交易 可能面临较大风险。自2025年10月28日至2025年12月8日，公司股票有十六个交易日以涨停价收盘，并6 次触及股价异 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 市场盘点 周一，美联储鹰派降息预期推动美元上涨，美元指数尾盘拉升，最终收涨0.13%，报99.11；基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.1670%，对美联储政策利率 敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.5810%。 受美元指数美盘走强影响，现货黄金一度回落30美元，最终收跌0.15%，报4190.68美元/盎司；现货白银最终收跌0.25%，报58.15美元/盎司。 今日优选 特朗普：本周将发布人工智能的单一规则行政令 俄副总理：自2026年起将限制黄金金条出口 日本本州东部附近海域发生7.5级地震，日本发布海啸预警 柬泰边境连续两日开火，两国相互指责 派拉蒙提出以每股30美元的价格收购华纳兄弟探索 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作 上期所发布做好贵金属市场风险控制工作的通知 国际要闻 市场关注印度购买俄罗斯原油的情况，成品油大跌拖累国际油价走低，WTI原油最终收跌2.16%，报58.83美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌2.18%，报62.45美 元/桶。 ...

美国总统特朗普上周发出了迄今为止最强烈的暗示，表明他已选定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。投资者 对此表示担忧。 在对这十几位候选人进行了数月的猜测后，特朗普终于在上周表示，他知道谁将由他提名成为美国经济 中最有权势的人物。仅仅几天后，在一次内阁会议上，特朗普特别点名国家经济委员会（NEC）主任凯 文·哈塞特是"潜在的美联储主席"，并补充道，"我们被允许这么说吗？" 彭博11月25日的一篇报道称哈塞特是执掌美联储的"领跑者"，随后10年期美债收益率上涨了11个基点。 据英国《金融时报》援引知情人士的话称，债券投资者在上个月初告诉财政部，他们担心哈塞特会为了 安抚特朗普而极力推动大幅降低借贷成本。 但美联储利率制定委员会的结构有助于防范政治影响：美联储主席只是12名投票者中的一员，不能单方 面否决多数人的决定。 "会议桌上代表了各种观点和政策方针，然后每个人都有一票，"美联储理事会前顾问Bill English表 示。"设立委员会是有原因的，如果委员会不同意主席的意见，那么主席有可能输掉投票，虽然这种情 况在过去从未发生过。" 据该报道，财政部与"华尔街主要银行高管、资产管理巨头以及美国债务市场其他大玩家"进行的一对 ...