Core Viewpoint - The tariffs imposed by President Trump on various trade partners have significantly increased cost pressures and operational challenges for metal and mining companies, particularly affecting copper and aluminum producers while benefiting steel manufacturers [1][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Companies - North American aluminum producers, including Alcoa and Rio Tinto, reported millions in tariff costs due to the doubling of aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% [2]. - Alcoa incurred $115 million in tariff costs in Q2, as 70% of its Canadian production is sold to the U.S. [3]. - Rio Tinto faced a total cost of $321 million for its Canadian aluminum exports due to U.S. tariffs [3]. - Freeport-McMoRan, the largest copper producer in the U.S., indicated that tariffs would increase costs by 5% [3]. - Caterpillar estimated the tariff impact in Q2 to be between $250 million and $350 million, leading to a 22% decline in adjusted operating profit [3]. Group 2: Steel Industry Perspective - The U.S. steel industry supports the increase in steel import tariffs from 25% to 50%, viewing it as a means to boost domestic demand and stabilize prices [5][6]. - Executives from Cleveland-Cliffs emphasized the necessity of strict enforcement of tariffs to maintain a strong domestic steel industry [7]. - Despite rising raw material costs, steel companies believe they can adjust their supply chains to cope with the changes [7]. - Steel companies expect improved operating conditions and profitability by the second half of 2025 due to stable demand [8]. Group 3: Operational Adjustments and Future Planning - Companies are reassessing their operational decisions in light of the tariff policies [9]. - Teck Resources reported an increase in capital requirements for its Highland Valley copper mine expansion project, raising its budget from CAD 2.1 billion to CAD 2.4 billion, reflecting a 14.3%-16.7% increase due to inflation and rising input costs [10]. - Grupo Mexico is evaluating U.S. investment opportunities, focusing on increasing smelting and refining capacity in response to tariff policies over the next 3-5 years [12].

Core Insights - Peru's copper production in June increased by 7.1% year-on-year, reaching 228,932 tons [1] - The Las Bambas mine, controlled by MMG, saw a production increase of 63.5% in June, while Chinalco's output more than doubled [1] - A decline in Las Bambas' production is expected in July due to a two-week blockade of a major road used for copper transportation, caused by protests from informal miners [1] - For the first six months of 2025, Peru's copper production is approximately 1.34 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1] - Peru ranks as the third-largest copper producer globally [1] Production Data - June's major metal production data from Peru is sourced from the Ministry of Energy and Mines [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by $40.5, or 0.41%, closing at $9,733.0 per ton on August 18, influenced by a stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding key events in the U.S. [1] - The three-month aluminum price decreased by $18.5, or 0.71%, closing at $2,588.5 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw declines of 0.64% and 0.53% respectively [2][6] - The only metal to see an increase was tin, which rose by $8, or 0.02%, closing at $33,702 per ton, supported by low inventory levels [6] Group 2 - ING commodity strategist Ewa Manthey noted that the market is cautious ahead of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, as well as the upcoming Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting [4] - The U.S. has expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum, which officially took effect on August 18, impacting various products and potentially affecting metal prices [6] - Peru's copper production increased by 7.1% year-on-year in June, reaching 228,932 tons, indicating a positive trend in copper supply [5]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in aluminum inventory, reaching a four-month high of 479,550 tons on August 14, followed by a slight decrease on the following Friday [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also saw a rise in aluminum inventory, with a weekly increase of 6.2% to 120,653 tons, marking a two-month high as of August 15 [1] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges supports futures prices, while an increase tends to exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - The inventory data comparison between LME and SHFE shows that as of August 15, 2025, LME inventory was 479,550 tons, while SHFE inventory was 120,653 tons [5] - The LME inventory has shown a consistent upward trend from 462,800 tons on August 1 to 479,675 tons on August 14, indicating a significant increase over the period [5]

Group 1: Import Data - In July 2025, China's import volume of aluminum ore and its concentrates reached 20.06 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.20% [1] - From January to July 2025, the total import volume of aluminum ore and its concentrates was 123.26 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.7% [1][2] Group 2: Export Data - In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products amounted to 190,796 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.4% [1][2] - From January to July 2025, the total export volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 934,046 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.00% [1][2] - In July 2025, the export volume of alumina was 23,000 tons, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 56.40% [1][2] - From January to July 2025, the total export volume of alumina reached 157,000 tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 64.3% [1][2]

Group 1 - LME aluminum prices declined due to the US expanding the 50% import tariff to more aluminum derivative products, creating uncertainty in demand [1] - The main aluminum contract in Shanghai reached a low of 20,550 yuan per ton, the lowest since August 6 [1] - The three-month aluminum price fell by 0.65% to $2,590 per ton, hitting a low since August 12 [1] Group 2 - The US government announced on August 15 that it would add 407 product codes to the tariff list, affecting various aluminum and steel-containing products [1] - The expanded tariff list will officially take effect on August 18 [1] - China's aluminum production in July 2025 was 3.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with a cumulative production of 26.38 million tons from January to July, up 2.8% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - China's aluminum ore and concentrate imports in July 2025 reached 20.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, with a cumulative import of 123.26 million tons from January to July, up 33.7% [2] - In July, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 190,796 tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, with a cumulative export of 934,046 tons from January to July, up 10% [2] Group 4 - A Singapore aluminum trader noted that the new tariff plan has negatively impacted market sentiment for base metals [3] - Technical analysts predict that three-month copper may test support levels between $9,567 and $9,620 per ton, with potential further declines if these levels are breached [3] - The three-month aluminum price may test support around $2,547 per ton, with further declines possible if this support is broken [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the end of June, the price of tin in Shanghai has fluctuated between 260,000 and 270,000 CNY per ton, with a significant reduction in trading volume and market attention [1] - The volatility index (VIX) for Shanghai tin options has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year, indicating a lack of market movement [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - The recovery of tin mining in Myanmar is progressing slowly, with actual output expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter due to seasonal rains and other logistical challenges [1] - Tin ore imports in China remain low, with a total of approximately 62,100 tons imported in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [2] - Imports from Africa have increased, compensating for some of the supply gaps from Myanmar, particularly after Alphamin Resources resumed production in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2] Group 3: Smelting and Production Challenges - Smelting enterprises are operating at low capacity due to tight raw material supplies, with the operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces at 59.23% as of August 15 [4] - The shortage of tin ore and rising costs have led some smelting companies to consider temporary shutdowns to manage production levels [4] - The recycling of tin scrap has been disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in the supply of secondary materials, which is further constraining refined tin production [4] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - Downstream demand for tin is currently weak, with a decline in orders, particularly in the home appliance sector, as the third quarter is typically a low season for consumption [5] - The semiconductor market is experiencing mixed signals, with overall growth but specific segments facing declines due to trade tensions and economic conditions [8][10] - The photovoltaic sector has seen a significant drop in new installations in June, impacting the demand for tin solder used in solar panels [9] Group 5: Price Outlook - The overall market is characterized by weak supply and demand fundamentals, with tin prices expected to continue fluctuating within a limited range [13] - The low inventory levels in the London Metal Exchange (LME) could lead to increased price volatility, necessitating caution against speculative trading [10][13] - In the medium to long term, as Myanmar's tin supply gradually recovers, the tight supply-demand balance may ease, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in tin prices [13]

Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 155,600 tons, reflecting a change of -0.13% [1] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 25 tons to 479,525 tons, with a change of -0.01% [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 75,850 tons, showing a change of -0.62% [1] - Nickel inventory decreased by 1,248 tons to 210,414 tons, with a change of -0.59% [1] - Lead inventory decreased by 625 tons to 260,475 tons, reflecting a change of -0.24% [1] - Tin inventory remained unchanged at 1,655 tons [1] Registered and Cancelled Warrants - Registered copper warrants decreased by 1,375 tons to 144,225 tons, with a cancellation rate of 7.31% [2] - Registered aluminum warrants decreased by 8,150 tons to 465,475 tons, with a cancellation rate of 2.93% [2] - Registered zinc warrants decreased by 30,450 tons to 45,400 tons, with a cancellation rate of 40.15% [2] - Registered nickel warrants decreased by 11,094 tons to 199,320 tons, with a cancellation rate of 5.27% [2] - Registered lead warrants decreased by 60,975 tons to 199,500 tons, with a cancellation rate of 23.41% [2] Location-Specific Inventory - Copper inventory in Changxing decreased by 50 tons to 48,150 tons [4] - Aluminum inventory in Port Klang decreased by 25 tons to 314,400 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 475 tons to 75,750 tons [9] - Tin inventory in Port Klang decreased by 25 tons to 1,220 tons [11] - Nickel inventory in Hring decreased by 1,248 tons to 46,374 tons [13]

沪铜早间小幅高开，但日内行情却略有走软，收盘微跌0.01%。最近宏观面指引有限，铜市供需面有支 撑，持续区间震荡，但周初社库增加，一定程度拖累铜价走势。 8月18日国内市场电解铜现货库存14.42万吨，较14日增1.18万吨。国内电解铜库存增加明显，其中各市 场均表现不同程度增幅；其中上海市场近期由于进口铜到货流入较多，且部分仓库出库量相对一般，库 存因此增加明显。 （文华综合） 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费呈现不断回升姿态，需求方认为市场还有抬升空间，但远期四季度的货物还 是维持 -40 左右左右的水平，矿端偏紧状态并未出现实质性的好转。冶炼端方面，后续仍显关注在原料 偏紧状态下冶炼厂开工率变化情况。 光大期货表示，铜价维系区间窄幅波动，一是近期宏观颇为反复，特朗普关税谈判明紧暗松，与各大经 济体的关税协议陆续达成，但与中国的关键谈判协议仍存不确定性；二是基本面方面，美精炼铜不加征 关税下市场对美铜后市看法依然有一定分歧，主要在于美铜超量累库下，可能迫使美铜持续偏弱，从而 导致库存重新外迁风险，进而冲击全球铜价。因此市场也可能先行消化淡季下基本面积累的矛盾 （LME和国内社会库存累库），价格可能维系偏弱走势；不 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铜库存呈区间波动状态，整体变化不大，最新库存水 平为155,800吨。 上周，纽铜库存继续累积，最新库存水平为267,195吨，增至2004年1月下旬以来新高。 2023年以来三大交易所铜库存对比 | 以下为2025年8月以来三大交易所铜库存数据：（单位：吨） | | --- | 上海期货交易所最新公布数据显示，8月15日当周，沪铜库存继续回升，周度库存增加5.4%至86,361 吨，增至一个半月新高。国际铜库存增加123吨至10,967吨。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 | 日期 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/15 | 267, 195 | 155, 800 | 86, 361 | | 2025/8/14 | 266, 804 | 155, 850 | | | 2025/8/13 | 266, 795 | 155, 875 | | | 2025/8/12 | 265, 889 | 155, 000 | | | 2025/8/11 ...