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【库存系数】2025年7月汽车经销商库存系数为1.35
乘联分会· 2025-08-20 08:33
Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory level of automobile dealers in July 2025 shows a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a cautious market environment with a need for careful inventory management [2][3][10]. Group 1: Inventory Levels - In July 2025, the comprehensive inventory coefficient for automobile dealers was 1.35, down 4.9% month-on-month and 10.0% year-on-year, indicating that inventory levels are below the warning line but above the reasonable range [2][3]. - The total inventory of automobile dealers is estimated to be around 2.47 million vehicles, based on a terminal sales volume of 1.826 million passenger vehicles in July [5]. Group 2: Brand-Specific Inventory Trends - The inventory coefficient for high-end luxury and imported brands rose to 1.56, an increase of 13.0% month-on-month, while the inventory coefficient for joint venture brands increased to 1.29, up 2.4% [6][9]. - In contrast, the inventory coefficient for domestic brands decreased to 1.34, down 10.7% month-on-month, reflecting a more favorable inventory situation for these brands [6][9]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The automobile market is expected to remain stable in August 2025, with potential growth in terminal sales due to the release of pent-up demand from the back-to-school season and various promotional events [10]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance the promotion of "old-for-new and scrapping policies" to boost consumer confidence while prioritizing cost reduction and efficiency [10].
【宏观经济】一周要闻回顾(2025年8月13日-8月19日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-19 08:40
Group 1: Retail Sales - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 34,931 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [2][4] - From January to July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 284,238 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.8%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 257,014 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% [2][4] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. Private fixed asset investment decreased by 1.5% [5][6] - In July 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.63% month-on-month [6] - By industry, the first industry saw an investment of 5,646 billion yuan (growth of 5.6%), the second industry 104,455 billion yuan (growth of 8.9%), and the third industry 178,128 billion yuan (decline of 2.3%) [6] Group 3: Industrial Production - In July 2025, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.38% [7][8] - From January to July 2025, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year [8] - By sector, mining industry added value grew by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% [8] Group 4: Energy Production - In July 2025, the production of crude oil was stable, with an output of 1,812 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [17] - Natural gas production accelerated, reaching 216 billion cubic meters in July, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [19] - Electricity production increased by 3.1% year-on-year in July, totaling 9,267 billion kilowatt-hours [21]
【快讯】每日快讯(2025年8月19日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-19 08:40
Domestic News - Beijing is accelerating the expansion of hydrogen fuel vehicles and enhancing hydrogen energy infrastructure, including applications in bicycles and drones [2] - Chongqing has announced an adjustment to its 2025 vehicle replacement subsidy policy, allocating an additional 300 million yuan for the third quarter, with specific subsidy standards for new energy and fuel vehicles [3] - The "Thousand Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new energy vehicle consumption season has been launched in Hubei, with 100 million yuan in consumer vouchers to stimulate local demand [4] - SAIC-GM has signed a cooperation agreement with Momenta to integrate advanced autonomous driving technology into its Buick models [5][6] - XPeng Motors has reached a strategic cooperation agreement with CITIC Bank, securing a credit line of 10 billion yuan to support its operations and development [7] - Beijing Benz's Yizhuang plant is set to produce the new all-electric CLA model, which will feature advanced driving assistance technologies and a range of 866 km [8] - Tesla has launched its first batch of V4 supercharging stations in Fujian, expanding its charging network to cover major cities [9] - NIO plans to expand into Singapore, Uzbekistan, and Costa Rica between 2025 and 2026, introducing new models in these markets [10] International News - In the Philippines, July car sales decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with total sales for the first seven months showing a slight increase of over 1% [11] - Hyundai plans to establish an assembly plant in Algeria to enhance its presence in the Middle East and Africa [12] - Canada's zero-emission vehicle sales fell by 35.2% in June, while overall vehicle sales increased by 6.2% [13] - Maruti Suzuki is expanding its SUV lineup to address declining demand for small cars, with a new model set to launch soon [14] Commercial Vehicles - The new energy Chenglong cargo truck has been launched in Hangzhou, designed for logistics and cold chain transportation [16] - Isuzu aims to make South Africa a hub for truck production in Africa, increasing local component sourcing [17] - TuDatong and DeepWay have upgraded their strategic cooperation, enhancing the perception capabilities of DeepWay's new models with advanced lidar technology [18][19] - Ford plans to unveil a new electric pickup truck in 2027, promising competitive performance and lower total ownership costs compared to existing models [20]
【联合发布】2025年7月OTA监测月报
乘联分会· 2025-08-19 08:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the monthly OTA (Over-the-Air) monitoring report, highlighting the significant increase in OTA updates across various automotive brands, with a focus on advancements in driver assistance technologies and user feedback on new features [1][4]. Industry Overview: OTA Data Summary - In July 2025, the industry updated a total of 833 features, a substantial increase from 507 in the previous month, with a focus on "driving assistance" technologies [4]. - New energy vehicle brands accounted for 382 updates, up from 133 the previous month, indicating a competitive landscape in autonomous driving features [6][7]. - Domestic brands contributed 450 updates, showing a stable performance in OTA functionality over the past year, maintaining a monthly range of 250 to 400 updates [9]. - Joint venture and luxury brands saw a drastic decline, with only one update from Buick, highlighting a slowdown in their technological advancements [11]. User Feedback: New Features - Users expressed satisfaction with the new "human-machine co-driving mode," which improved the overall experience of the NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot) system by reducing the need for manual intervention [21][22]. - The addition of an ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control) switch was positively received, as it reduced instances of unexpected system downgrades during driving [25]. - Users reported that the new features enhanced the driving experience, particularly in complex traffic situations, leading to increased usage of the NGP system [23][24]. Upcoming OTA Updates - Several brands have scheduled significant OTA updates for late 2025, including advanced driving assistance features and improvements in user interface and experience [17][18]. - Notable upcoming updates include the introduction of full-scene connectivity for Huawei ADS 4.0 and various enhancements across multiple vehicle models [17]. Summary of OTA Activities - The report outlines various OTA activities across brands, indicating a trend towards continuous improvement and feature enhancement in the automotive sector [31][42].
【新能源周报】新能源汽车行业信息周报(2025年8月11日-8月17日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-19 08:40
Industry Information - In July, China's power battery installation volume reached 55.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, with lithium iron phosphate accounting for 80.4% of the total [9][10] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that in July, 1.262 million new energy vehicles were sold, marking a year-on-year growth of 27.4% [9][10] - Cumulative production of power and other batteries from January to July reached 831.1 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 57.5% [9] - Cumulative installation volume of power batteries from January to July was 355.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45.1% [9] - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to July reached 8.23 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [10] Policy Information - A new national standard for the transportation of power lithium batteries will be implemented starting February 1, 2026, focusing on safety and efficiency in transport [21] - The Qinghai Provincial Energy Bureau is soliciting opinions on the management measures for electric vehicle charging and swapping infrastructure [21] - The Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission is seeking feedback on local standards for supercharging stations and their integration with the urban power grid [21] - The Jilin Provincial Energy Bureau has issued guidelines for subsidies related to the construction and operation of battery swapping stations [21] - The Guangzhou Municipal Industry and Information Technology Bureau has released a plan for the high-quality development of virtual power plants, aiming for a capacity of 5 million kW by the end of 2027 [20] Company Information - CATL has launched a battery repair service to address the high costs associated with battery replacement, offering repair prices significantly lower than full battery replacement costs [13] - A new battery recycling company has been established with an investment of 650 million yuan, focusing on the recycling and reuse of used power batteries [15] - The project for CATL's extreme film project has commenced in Xining, Qinghai, marking a significant step in their strategic cooperation with the city [17] - The Sea Owl flying car global headquarters project has started construction, with a total investment of approximately 1 billion yuan [17] - The first resident vehicle-grid interaction pilot project has been launched in Guangzhou, allowing electric vehicles to supply power back to the grid [17][18]
【行业政策】一周要闻回顾(2025年8月11日-8月17日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-18 08:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the public solicitation of opinions on new automotive industry standards for "Medical Vehicles" and "Automatic Leveling Support Devices for Special Vehicles," highlighting the need for standardized regulations to support the growing mobile healthcare sector and improve product quality in the automotive industry [3][4]. Group 1: Medical Vehicles Standard - The draft standard for "Medical Vehicles" includes eight chapters covering scope, normative references, terminology, requirements, testing methods, inspection rules, user manuals, and storage [3]. - The demand for medical vehicles has surged, with an expected cumulative production and sales of 8,024 units from 2018 to 2025, and the number of modification companies increasing from 20 to over 100 [4]. - The absence of standardized regulations has hindered industry development and led to chaotic modifications, necessitating the revision of existing standards to encompass a broader range of medical vehicles [4]. Group 2: Automatic Leveling Support Devices Standard - The draft standard for "Automatic Leveling Support Devices" consists of nine chapters detailing scope, normative references, terminology, model compilation rules, requirements, testing methods, inspection rules, user manuals, and packaging [5]. - The increasing demands for flexibility, leveling time, and precision in special vehicles have outpaced the existing standards, necessitating updates to ensure safety and design guidance [5]. Group 3: Differential Assembly and Hydraulic Control Unit Standards - Two additional draft standards for "Differential Assembly Technical Requirements and Testing Methods" and "Hydraulic Control Unit Technical Requirements and Testing Methods" have been issued, with a focus on improving industry standards and supporting government regulation [8][10]. - The implementation of these standards is expected to reduce costs, enhance market competitiveness, and ensure product quality and safety in the automotive parts market [9][10]. Group 4: Ethernet PHY Chip Standard - A draft standard for "Automotive Ethernet 100Mbps PHY Chip Technical Requirements and Testing Methods" has been proposed to address the rapid growth of automotive Ethernet applications and the need for unified product standards [12][15]. - The standard aims to improve product consistency and quality, facilitating the development of domestic automotive Ethernet PHY chips and breaking foreign monopolies [14][15]. Group 5: Automotive Security Vulnerability Standard - A draft for a recommended national standard on "Automotive Security Vulnerability Classification and Grading Evaluation" has been developed to establish a framework for managing automotive security vulnerabilities [16][18]. - This standard will assist organizations in classifying and evaluating vulnerabilities, thereby enhancing the overall security management mechanisms within the automotive industry [18].
【快讯】每日快讯(2025年8月18日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-18 08:37
Domestic News - In July, China's industrial production maintained steady growth, with 35 out of 41 major industrial sectors showing year-on-year increases, resulting in a growth rate of 85.4%. The electronic, electrical machinery, and automotive sectors contributed 36.4% to the growth of industrial output [2] - Wuhan's automobile replacement and upgrade policy will be suspended from August 19, 2025, requiring consumers to complete vehicle registration and subsidy applications by August 31, 2025 [3] - Hunan has launched a "mobile power bank" V2G vehicle-to-grid interactive pilot project, allowing excess energy from electric vehicles to be sent back to the grid [4] - Shanghai's first batch of autonomous smart connected taxis has officially started operations, covering 58 locations with a fare structure starting at 16 yuan for trips under 5 kilometers [5] - Dongfeng Motor and China National Chemical Corporation have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance collaboration in technology innovation, supply chain optimization, and overall vehicle solutions [6] - Li Auto has introduced a self-driving tour support plan, offering vehicle inspections and quick repair services along designated travel routes until October 31, 2025 [7] - Great Wall Motors has inaugurated its first factory in Brazil, with plans for a second factory to increase production capacity, targeting annual sales of 250,000 to 300,000 vehicles [8] International News - Global electric vehicle sales increased by 27% in the first seven months of 2025, reaching 10.7 million units, with China leading at 6.5 million units and a growth rate of 29% [10] - Japan's exports of used cars to Sri Lanka surged to 46.9 billion yen (approximately 318 million USD) in the first half of 2025, nearing a six-month export high [11] - Indian automaker Mahindra has launched a limited edition "Batman" electric SUV, with only 300 units available for sale [12][13] - Lucid Motors will offer a $7,500 leasing discount for its Gravity model in response to the upcoming expiration of the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit [15] Commercial Vehicles - Dongfeng Motor has delivered its first batch of 50 new energy dump trucks in Yichang, supporting green mining and low-carbon logistics development [16] - Brazil has welcomed its first Chinese hydrogen fuel heavy truck, marking the introduction of Chinese hydrogen and fuel cell technology into the Brazilian market [17] - BYD has announced its first electric small truck, named T4, expanding its commercial vehicle lineup and preparing for a market launch in the second half of 2025 [18] - Dongfeng Motor and JD Group have signed a strategic cooperation agreement focusing on vehicle marketing, after-sales service, and smart logistics [19]
【联合发布】一周新车快讯(2025年8月9日-8月15日)
乘联分会· 2025-08-18 08:37
Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of new vehicle launches scheduled for August 2025, highlighting various manufacturers, models, specifications, and market segments. Group 1: Vehicle Launches - Geely Auto will launch the Galaxy A7 on August 8, 2025, targeting the B NB segment with a price range of 89,800 to 125,800 CNY [2][7]. - Chery Auto's Exeed Moon will be released on August 9, 2025, in the C SUV segment, priced between 189,900 and 209,900 CNY [2][13]. - Tesla China is set to introduce the Model 3 on August 12, 2025, in the B NB segment, with prices ranging from 269,500 to 339,500 CNY [2][21]. - FAW Car will launch the Hongqi HS5 on August 12, 2025, in the B SUV segment, with a price range of 186,800 to 223,800 CNY [2][27]. - Changan Auto's Deep Blue L07 will be available on August 13, 2025, in the B NB segment, priced between 145,900 and 165,900 CNY [2][36]. - SAIC-GM-Wuling will release the Baojun Yunhai on August 13, 2025, in the A SUV segment, with prices from 112,900 to 132,900 CNY [2][43]. - FAW Car will also launch the Hongqi H5 on August 14, 2025, in the B NB segment, with a price range of 172,800 to 192,800 CNY [2][50]. - SAIC-GM-Wuling's Wuling Xingguang S will be available on August 15, 2025, in the A SUV segment, priced between 99,800 and 129,800 CNY [2][57]. - Audi's Q2L will launch on August 15, 2025, in the AO SUV segment, with prices ranging from 171,800 to 185,800 CNY [2][65]. - Dongfeng Nissan will introduce the Nissan Sylphy on August 15, 2025, in the A NB segment, priced between 113,900 and 133,900 CNY [2][71]. Group 2: Specifications Overview - The Geely Galaxy A7 features a 1.5L plug-in hybrid engine with a maximum power of 82 kW and a torque of 175 Nm, offering an electric range of 70 km [6][7]. - The Chery Exeed Moon is equipped with a 2.0T engine, delivering 192 kW of power and 400 Nm of torque [12][13]. - Tesla's Model 3 has a battery capacity of 78.4 kWh, providing a range of 647 to 830 km [20][21]. - The Hongqi HS5 features a 2.0T engine with a power output of 185 kW and a torque of 380 Nm [26][27]. - Changan's Deep Blue L07 offers both range-extended and pure electric options, with the latter providing a range of 550 to 660 km [33][36]. - The Baojun Yunhai is available in pure electric variants with a range of 500 to 600 km [41][43]. - The Hongqi H5 offers two engine options: a 1.5T and a 2.0T, with power outputs of 124 kW and 165 kW, respectively [48][50]. - The Wuling Xingguang S features a 1.5L plug-in hybrid engine and a pure electric variant with a range of 510 km [54][57]. - Audi's Q2L is powered by a 1.5T engine, producing 118 kW and 250 Nm of torque [62][65]. - The Nissan Sylphy is equipped with a 1.6L engine, delivering 99 kW and 159 Nm of torque [70][71].
【联合发布】新能源商用车周报(2025年8月第2周)
乘联分会· 2025-08-18 08:37
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the new energy commercial vehicle industry is entering a new stage of high-quality development driven by market forces rather than resources, supported by recent government policies aimed at enhancing market mechanisms and promoting sustainable growth [6][10]. Policy and Regulations - Recent policies have been issued to promote the market-oriented reform of new energy pricing and to accelerate the construction of a national electricity spot market, aiming for comprehensive market entry of new energy by 2025 [8][10]. - The new national standard for the transportation of lithium batteries will be implemented in February 2026, enhancing safety and efficiency in the supply chain of the new energy vehicle industry [13][14]. - The hydrogen energy industry is seeing significant policy support, with a long-term development plan outlining strategic goals and legal frameworks for hydrogen utilization [15][16]. Market Insights - From January to July 2025, domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 469,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 61.1%, with a penetration rate of 24.2% [19][22]. - Sales of new energy heavy trucks during the same period totaled 96,000 units, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 179.3% and a penetration rate of 22.9% [23][30]. - Major players like XCMG and SANY continue to lead the market, while traditional companies are accelerating their electrification transitions [22][30]. Company Monitoring - Chery Commercial Vehicles held a mid-year business meeting for its Kairy small truck and Kairy VAN series, aiming to become the leading brand in the new energy small truck category with a target of 200,000 annual sales by 2025 [38]. - GAC Aion's new energy heavy truck T9 has officially rolled off the production line, designed specifically for short-haul transport scenarios, showcasing advanced features and a focus on lifecycle value services [40]. - Proton Motors launched the "Yao Ling II," equipped with advanced liquid hydrogen technology, aimed at enhancing logistics efficiency through innovative design and operational flexibility [41][42]. - Rongcheng New Energy has completed the integration of a hydrogen heavy truck powered by a 400kW fuel cell stack, entering the testing phase with a focus on efficiency and reliability [43][46].
【商用车】2025年7月轻型商用车市场预测研究报告
乘联分会· 2025-08-18 08:37
Industry Insights - Foton Motor launched the Aoling new energy product matrix, addressing key pain points for logistics users such as complex purchasing processes, range anxiety, and slow maintenance response, by introducing a closed-loop ecosystem of "vehicle + pile + light + storage + load + intelligence" [3] - Jianghuai Automobile successfully conducted the first national joint debugging of the "chocolate" battery swap commercial vehicle, achieving a battery swap time of 150 seconds [4] - Yuancheng New Energy officially launched the Yuancheng Star Enjoy V7E, marking the third model in its VAN champion family, based on a new "third-generation urban new energy light vehicle platform" [6] Product Analysis - The light truck market is seeing a shift towards differentiation between large battery (above 110 kWh) and smaller battery (below 80 kWh) electric light trucks, with major sales models expected to include Yuancheng Star Wisdom and BYD T5 [9] - The small truck market is upgrading towards electric models with battery capacities above 60 kWh [11] - The micro truck market is experiencing a decline across all fuel types, with new energy penetration remaining low at only 1.2% [13] - The small electric truck market is rapidly shifting from below 60 kWh to above 60 kWh, with key sales models including Geely Yuancheng Star Wisdom F5E and Dongfeng Kaipute EV180 [14] - The light passenger vehicle market has surpassed 60% penetration for new energy, with cargo volume shifting towards 7-8 cubic meters [16] Sales Forecast - Economic factors such as insufficient domestic market demand and consumer confidence are impacting sales, with light commercial electric vehicles becoming the mainstay of the market [18] - The overall light commercial vehicle market is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, with a projected total sales volume of 2.81 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [20]