Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development to stabilize and promote healthy growth in the real estate market, as highlighted in a recent State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang [3]. Group 1: Real Estate Policy Developments - The State Council meeting called for a focus on long-term strategies and the establishment of foundational systems to support real estate development [3]. - There is an emphasis on the construction of "good houses" and the integration of urban renewal mechanisms to enhance policy coordination across planning, land, finance, and other areas [3]. - The meeting proposed a nationwide assessment of supplied land and ongoing projects to optimize existing policies and improve their effectiveness [3]. Group 2: Local Government Initiatives - Guangzhou's proposal to eliminate restrictive measures and reduce down payment ratios and interest rates aims to stimulate consumer demand in the housing market [4]. - The plan includes significant investments in the renovation of old residential areas and the construction of new projects, with a target of over 150 old residential area renovations and 9,000 elevator updates by 2025 [4]. - The initiative to use special loans for purchasing existing commercial housing as resettlement housing is expected to further support the real estate sector [4]. Group 3: Market Performance and Data - The market performance indicators show a decline in the CITIC building materials index by 2.16% and the CITIC construction index by 1.27% [5]. - The average price of national PO42.5 cement increased slightly to 365.70 yuan/ton, while the national cement enterprise shipment rate decreased by 2.3 percentage points [5]. - Glass prices fell to 1,203 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [6].

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing an increase in safety incidents, leading to stricter regulations on high-risk chemical reactions, which may benefit leading companies with better safety controls and advanced production technologies [2] - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has impacted the supply of chlorantraniliprole, potentially driving up prices due to supply shortages [3] - The fire at Jiangxi Yangfan, a subsidiary of Yangfan New Materials, is expected to affect the supply of intermediates for photoinitiators, which may lead to increased industry concentration and benefit leading companies [4] Group 2 - An accident at China Pingmei Shenma Group's nylon technology company has disrupted the supply of caprolactam and other chemical products, affecting related nylon enterprises [5]

截至2025年6月13日，SHFE铜收盘价78010 元/吨，环比6月6日-1.2%；LME铜收盘价9648 美元/吨，环比6月6 日-0.24%。（1）宏观：贸易冲突对经济负面影响尚未完全显现，仍会压制铜价涨幅。（2）供需：供给端铜矿 扰动增加，5月国内废铜产量同比下降20%；需求端出口备货效应减弱以及国内逐步进入淡季，需求有走弱风 险，预计铜价短期维持震荡，铜价有望在国内刺激政策出台以及美国降息后逐步上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-3%，LME铜库存环比-6% 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：看好宏观预期改善后铜价上行 （1）国内港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年6月13日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存81.3 万吨，环比上周+8.8%。 （2）全球电解铜 ...

Overall Viewpoint - The European Commission is set to launch a four-week consultation for the first fusion energy strategy in June-July 2025, which is expected to strengthen Europe's leading position in the ITER project and enhance its competitive edge in fusion strategies against the US, Japan, and the UK, while attracting social investment and clarifying development paths [3] - The market remains highly focused on Document "136" and "Green Electricity Direct Connection," with electricity consumption and pricing mechanisms gradually unfolding across provinces. Recent data indicates a year-on-year decline in overall electricity prices, reflecting ongoing pressure in power supply and demand, particularly with low photovoltaic prices and stable wind power prices. The core logic of green electricity direct connection is to provide more consumption scenarios and facilitate green certification for exported products, although challenges in breaking the electricity grid monopoly remain [3] Investment Aspects - Virtual Power Plants: As a crucial component of demand-side response, they can effectively reduce peak electricity load curves through resource aggregation and digital technology control [4] - Wind Power: Document "136" reshapes the logic of new energy installations, with favorable output curves for wind power, leading to a potential recovery in wind power station sales and profit restoration for wind turbine manufacturing [4] - Energy Storage and Power Equipment: Continued focus on large-scale energy storage in Europe, industrial and commercial storage in Southeast Asia, and off-grid storage in Africa is expected to see high growth. Short-term attention should be on the month-on-month increase in household storage data [4] - Controlled Nuclear Fusion and Solid-State Batteries: The market may continue to speculate on these two fields, with a focus on domestic experimental pile bidding and US-China technological progress in controlled nuclear fusion, while solid-state batteries should focus on technological advancements from major battery manufacturers [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations this week, with only the ChiNext index showing an increase. The ETF market continued to see net outflows, primarily from large-cap ETFs. The market is transitioning from wide fluctuations to narrower ones, with increased trading volume during this process, indicating potential consolidation in a weak market [4]. Copper Industry - In May, domestic waste copper production was 92,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20% but a month-on-month increase of 5%. The negative impact of trade conflicts on the economy has not fully materialized, which continues to suppress copper price increases. Supply-side disturbances in copper mining have increased, while demand is weakening due to reduced export stocking effects and the domestic off-season [5]. Metal Prices - The price of London gold has reached a historical high. Sunac China’s offshore debt-to-equity swap plan received support from 82% of bondholders. In May, Sunac's total sales amounted to 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%, indicating strong performance [6]. Chemical Industry - Recent safety incidents in chemical parks have led to stricter approval and production regulations for high-risk chemical reactions. Leading companies in the chemical industry, with better safety management and advanced production technologies, are expected to benefit from stable production amid limited growth in high-risk products [7]. Construction Materials - The market performance showed a decline, with the CITIC building materials index down 2.16% and the CITIC construction index down 1.27%. The average price of PO42.5 cement was 365.70 yuan/ton, a slight increase, while glass prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton [8]. Agriculture and Livestock - In the pig farming sector, the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, but high inventory levels continue to impact market dynamics. Recent policy-driven efforts are accelerating the reduction of inventory, which may lead to a rebalancing of supply and demand. Long-term, the end of inventory reduction could signal the start of a prolonged profit upcycle for the sector [9]. Renewable Energy - The nuclear fusion sector, while far from full commercialization, is seeing increased investment and research due to global military competition. Recent data from May indicates a downward trend in overall renewable energy prices, highlighting ongoing pressures in power supply and demand. Wind power, virtual power plants, and energy storage are identified as promising investment opportunities [10].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations and a slight decline during the week of June 9-13, 2025, with only the ChiNext index showing an increase [3] - Major indices showed mixed performance: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, SSE 50 down 0.46%, CSI 300 down 0.25%, CSI 500 down 0.38%, CSI 1000 down 0.76%, and ChiNext up 0.22% [4] Valuation Insights - As of June 13, 2025, major indices such as Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at a "moderate" valuation level, while ChiNext is at a "safe" valuation level [5] - In terms of industry valuation, sectors like electricity and utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are also at a "safe" valuation level [6] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of CSI 300 constituents increased compared to the previous week, indicating an improved short-term Alpha environment; however, the cross-sectional volatility for CSI 500 and CSI 1000 constituents decreased, suggesting a weakened Alpha environment [7][8] Fund Flow Tracking - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention this week were Zhongke Shuguang (145 institutions), Haiguang Information (145), Zhongwen Online (144), Sichuang Electronics (133), and Haiziwang (123) [9] - For the week of June 9-13, 2025, southbound funds saw a net inflow of HKD 15.457 billion, with Shanghai Stock Connect net inflow of HKD 5.626 billion and Shenzhen Stock Connect net inflow of HKD 9.831 billion [10]

Group 1: Pig Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.02 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 0.21% [3] - The average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 32.89 yuan/kg, down 4.69% week-on-week [3] - The average weight of market pigs at slaughter was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg week-on-week, while the national frozen meat storage rate increased to 13.89%, up 0.09 percentage points [3] Group 2: Chicken Prices - The price of white feather broiler chickens was 7.27 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, and the price of chicks was 2.74 yuan/chick, down 3.52% week-on-week [4] - Slaughter enterprises are experiencing slow sales of frozen chicken products, leading to increased inventory and reduced slaughter rates [4] - The current season is characterized by low profits for farmers, which is suppressing chick prices [4] Group 3: Grain Prices - The average spot price of corn was 2405.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% week-on-week, while soybean meal averaged 2968 yuan/ton, up 0.94% week-on-week [5] - The average price of wheat decreased to 2430.39 yuan/ton, down 0.13% week-on-week [5] - The increase in corn prices is attributed to reduced circulation due to wheat harvesting and traders holding onto their stocks [5] Group 4: Natural Rubber Prices - The domestic natural rubber futures price rose to 13815 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.88% [6] - Supply is tightening due to seasonal harvesting and adverse weather conditions affecting production [6] - Demand from tire manufacturers is recovering, leading to an increase in production capacity utilization [6]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 中东地缘政治冲突升级，本周油价大涨 本周中东地缘风险加剧，以色列于 6 月 13 日发动对伊朗的打击，袭击了伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事 设施相关的目标，造成了伊朗 6 名高级别核科学家、 3 名高级军事指挥官死亡；伊朗对以色列实施报复，发射 弹道导弹打击以色列军事中心、空军基地等目标。截至 6 月 14 日，双方军事行动仍在持续，中东地区地缘政 治风险全面升级，油价大涨。截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，布伦特、 WTI 原油分别报收 75.18 、 73.18 美元 / 桶， 较上周末分别上涨 12.8% 、 13.0% 。 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 站在本轮来看，预计中东局势动荡对于市场整体的影响或许也不会很大。以色列对伊朗发动打击事件对于 A股以及港股整体而言影响或许也不会很大。一方面，历史来看，中东局势紧张时A股及港股所受影响均 较小。另一方面，中东地区在我国的进出口份额中占比也较低，冲突本身对于国内经济的影响较弱。 行业层面，短期或可"以静制动"，继续关注原有主线，中长期则需观察冲突的持续性。短期而言，中东局 势动荡短期对行业表现的影响可能也并不会明显，市场或许仍然会沿着此前的主线运动。中长期来看，目 前冲突的持续性仍然有待观察，可以等待局势更加明朗后再进行相应选择，若冲突持续时间短，可更多关 注成长，反之则关注资源品、交运及红利板块等。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周A股市场出现回调 受风 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （1）本周110家样本洗煤厂（约占全国洗煤厂焦原煤入洗产能50%）开工率为57.4%，环比-3.2pct，同 比-11.6pct，当前仍处于5年同期低位水平；（2）本周247座高炉产能利用率为90.58%，环比-0.07pct，同 比+1.05pct，日均铁水产量241.54 万吨，环比-0.1%，同比+0.9%；（3）本周28个主要城市平均气温为 29.45 ℃，处于同期中位；（4）本周三峡出库流量为16414 立方米/秒，环比+29.39%，同比+39.95%。 环渤海港煤炭库存继续回落，目前处于同期高位 （1）截至6月13日，秦皇岛港口煤炭库存618 万吨，环比-5.65%，同比+19.31%，处于同期高位水平； （2）截至6月1 ...