以下文章来源于见闻历 ，作者李笑寅 见闻历 . 每天多看我一眼，投资赚的多一点。 | 5月26日 | 周一 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 事件 | 海 | 2:40 美联储主席鲍威尔在普林斯顿大学毕业典礼发表毕 ALC: 757 | | | | | | 21:00 欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话 | | | | 财报 | 国内 | 美团 | | | | 5月27日 | 周二 | | | | | 数据 | 国内 | 9:30 中国4月规模以上工业企业利润同比 | | 2.6% | | | 海外 | 20:30 美国4月耐用品订单环比初值 | -8.2% | 9.2% | | | | 20:30 美国4月扣除飞机非国防资本耐用品订单环比初值 | 0.2% | 0.1% | | 财报 | 国内 | 拼多多、小米集团、快手 | | | | 5月28日 | 周三 | | | | | 数据 | 海 | 14:45 法国一季度GDP同比终值 | | 0.8% | | | | 14:45 法国一季度GDP季环比终值 | | 0.1% | | 事件 | 海 | 第39届欧佩克和 ...

Core Viewpoint - FWD Group, led by Richard Li, is preparing for its fourth attempt to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a focus on expanding its presence in the Asian insurance market [3][4][10]. Group 1: Company Overview - FWD Group has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs as joint sponsors [4]. - The company operates across 10 regions, including Hong Kong, Thailand, Cambodia, Japan, and the Philippines, holding significant market shares in these areas [5]. - Richard Li, known as "Little Superman," is the controlling shareholder and has a long history in the business sector, including previous successes and setbacks [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - FWD Group has turned a profit of $0.1 billion in 2024, a turnaround from previous losses, with a year-on-year increase of $7.27 billion [11]. - The company’s annualized new premium increased by 18.6% to $1.916 billion in 2024, building on a previous growth rate of 18.3% [22]. - The annualized return on equity and investment portfolio performance improved significantly, with equity and investment funds showing a year-on-year return increase of 6.7 percentage points to 7.9% [20]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Strategy - FWD Group has seen a compound annual growth rate of 125.9% in annualized new premiums from its Hong Kong (and Macau) business targeting the mainland China market from 2022 to 2024 [23]. - The company aims to explore opportunities in mainland China, including obtaining a full life insurance license and engaging with distribution channels [37]. - Richard Li has a history of interest in the mainland insurance market, having attempted various initiatives to enter this space over the years [24][26][30]. Group 4: Technological Integration - FWD Group has established a technology-driven ecosystem through its insurance technology company, Bolttech, which has expanded into 14 markets with 7.7 million customers [50]. - The company emphasizes the importance of digitalization, targeting a younger customer demographic with an average age of 40 [51]. - Bolttech collaborates with various partners to enhance its service offerings, focusing on distributing FWD Group's insurance products [52].

(图片由豆包AI生成，提示词风险暴发） 一个令全球市场恐慌的日期，正在逼近。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示， 建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。 这一声明不仅打破了此前90天的"缓冲期"预期，也让原本艰难推进的美欧贸易谈判面临崩盘风险。 当天美股、欧股双双跳水，避险情绪重回上风，黄金大涨。 而 上一次类似情绪失控，是4月2日 ——当天，特朗普宣布所谓的"对等关税"，"血洗"全球股市，黄金迎来史诗级暴涨。 如今，随着特朗普再次出手，市场正在评估， 6月1日会不会是又一个4月2日。 欧美贸易是无与伦比的，必须以相互尊重为指导，而非威胁。我们随时准备捍卫我们的利益。 欧盟方面认为，欧盟和美国的关税之间仅相差约1个百分点，增值税大致相当于美国的销售税。 布鲁塞尔也不愿意给予美国其他国家无法进入的市场，因为这 将违反世界贸易组织的规则。 官员们还指出，虽然贸易政策由欧盟委员会负责，但美国面临的许多贸易壁垒都是国家层面的。 迄今为止， 大多数成员国都支持欧盟委员会"参与但耗时"的做法 ，认为特朗普最终会因其关税将对美国经济造成的损害而做出让步。他们表示，布鲁塞尔方 面有坚定 ...

当所有人将注意力集中在6月1日的关税大限、特朗普与欧盟的"贸易摊牌"时，一个低调但可能产生巨大影响的法律事件，正在悄然到来。 高盛分析师Alec Phillips在最新报告中提醒， 美国国际贸易法院将在未来几周内就一项初步禁令动议作出裁决，该禁令可能会废除特朗普在4月2日公布的关 税。 虽然法院批准初步禁令的可能性不大，但这是市场普遍忽视的潜在利好风险。 据报道，这项裁定可能在本月底前落地。这也意味着， 一旦法院通过禁令，已实施的10%全面关税和暂缓的对等关税将全部被叫停，美国与欧盟、日本、印度 等国家正在进行的紧张谈判，也将面临重新洗牌。 总统能否绕过国会开征关税？ 这场法律挑战的核心是特朗普使用1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)征收全球关税的权力。 这种"自残式"的关税政策引发了美国国内企业的强烈不满。很快，V.O.S. Selections葡萄酒进口公司等五家小企业向国际贸易法院提起诉讼， 称总统无权绕过 国会征收这些关税 。 Danforth将此案描述为"自美国建国以来最重要的问题之一"，涉及到权力集中问题以及美国开国元勋詹姆斯·麦迪逊试图将权力分散到政府各个部门的理念。 今年4月，特朗普 ...

"战时CEO"马斯克回来了。 美东时间周六，特斯拉CEO马斯克在X平台发文表示，自己将重新回归24小时工作模式： "我又要回到24小时全天工作的节奏了，直接睡在会议室、服务器机房和工厂里。我必须高度专注于X、xAI、特斯拉以及下周的Starship火箭发射，因为我们 有关键技术正在陆续推出。正如这周X平台宕机所暴露的那样，我们在运营上必须做出重大改进。本来'冗余备份系统'（出故障时切换用的）应该能顶上，但 这次没起作用。" 这番话是在回应X平台连续宕机的背景下发出的，凸显他对运营问题的高度重视。今年早些时候，马斯克曾宣布将逐步退出他参与的"联邦政府效率部"项目，并 减少在政治方面的投入。 有媒体指出，马斯克认为，自己感到被不公平对待，被指责为纳粹、因政治立场被攻击、甚至连特斯拉也被牵连。这让他愤怒，也促使他再次进入"愤怒马斯 克"模式。 对特斯拉的股东来说，愤怒的马斯克，可能是件好事。 特斯拉一季度销量同比下滑，毛利率持续承压；欧洲等市场份额被比亚迪等对手迅速蚕食；廉价特斯拉计划落空、2000万辆年销目标搁浅；Cybertruck销量惨 淡、几近翻车。他本人被指分心于政治，对特斯拉缺乏关注，就连特斯拉董事会的 ...

报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是推动美国外贸逆差的最持续驱动因素，而逆转过去15年来美元40%的实际升值幅度，可能足以使贸易逆差回归零平衡。 不过，美元大幅贬值将对全球市场产生剧烈冲击，新兴市场和出口导向型经济体将面临严重打击，从而发生全球经济衰退。 据追风交易台，德意志银行经济学家Peter Hooper在最新研究报告中提出了一个看似"简单"的消除美国贸易逆差方案——美元贬值40%。 Hooper认为，现有的关税政策虽有助于缩小逆差，但将带来价格上涨和增长放缓的痛苦代价。所以美国政府未来可能出现政策转向，放弃以关税为重点的贸易 政策。 美国贸易逆差的核心驱动因素 德银报告确定了推动美国贸易逆差达到当前水平的关键因素。报告指出， 美元实际汇率的波动是美国外贸逆差最持续的驱动因素 ，这主要由财政和货币政策 的根本性转变以及海外私人和政府储蓄变化所推动。 报告特别提到，美国对世界其他地区的逆差已扩大到前所未有的高度。特朗普上台之后，不惜推出大萧条以来最大规模的关税政策，正式为了解决这个问题。 美元40%贬值的"解决方案" 德银的关键发现是， 过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential shift of iPhone production back to the U.S. could lead to a significant price increase, with estimates suggesting a rise of at least 25% to as much as 190% compared to current prices, severely impacting demand and inflation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Cost Implications - Analysts predict that the price of the iPhone 16 Pro, currently priced at $1199, could rise to approximately $1500 if produced in the U.S. due to labor cost increases [3]. - A more pessimistic estimate suggests that the price of a U.S.-manufactured iPhone could reach $3500, with Apple needing to invest $30 billion over three years to shift just 10% of its supply chain to the U.S. [4]. Group 2: Labor and Skills Challenges - The labor cost for manufacturing iPhones in the U.S. is significantly higher, with U.S. assembly and testing costs estimated at $200 compared to $40 in Asia [8]. - There is a notable shortage of skilled engineers in the U.S., which complicates the feasibility of large-scale production. Apple CEO Tim Cook highlighted that the number of engineers in the U.S. is insufficient compared to Asia [9]. Group 3: Supply Chain Complexity - Even if assembly were to occur in the U.S., most components would still be sourced from Asia, where tariffs could further increase costs. For instance, the price of the iPhone 16 Pro Max could rise by 91% due to tariffs and labor costs [10]. - The complexity of the global supply chain makes a complete transition to U.S. manufacturing highly challenging and potentially unfeasible [11]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Apple has engaged in negotiations with the Trump administration to secure temporary tariff exemptions, allowing it to continue manufacturing in Asia without incurring additional costs [12]. - There is speculation that Apple may consider small-scale production of certain products in the U.S. to negotiate for tariff exemptions, similar to its previous commitments [12].

特朗普政府对欧盟突然加码施压，并表示美国"与欧盟的谈判毫无进展"。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日周五，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。特朗普声明公布后，美国在2025年陷 入衰退的几率上升到43%。 事实上，特朗普对欧洲的不满由来已久。据媒体报道，特朗普的经济团队私下里一直对欧洲官员抱怨，欧盟成员国在贸易优先事项上的分歧拖慢了谈判进程。 他们认为欧洲在谈判中过于谨慎，不愿就美国关注的问题，如流媒体服务费、增值税、汽车法规以及对美国公司实施的反垄断罚款等，提出具体的解决方案。 分析认为， 美欧贸易谈判方式存在根本性差异。特朗普急于快速宣布协议，而欧盟领导人采取更为稳健和注重程序的谈判方式。欧盟官员一直试图找到一个应 对美国的中间立场，既不似中国般强硬，又比英国更具主动性。 白宫极限施压：耐心耗尽，重拳出击 分析指出， 欧盟官员已寻求在回应美国方面找到一个中间地带，既不似中国般强硬，又比英国更具主动性。 欧盟"佛系"谈判，惹怒特朗普 与特朗普的强硬谈判策略形成鲜明对比的是， 欧盟领导人采取了更为稳健和注重程序的谈判方式，这包括与27个成员国的频繁磋商。 这种协商一致的 ...

美元本周下跌2%，创下自4月关税抛售以来最大单周跌幅，投资者对美国财政状况的担忧情绪急剧升温。 投资者对美国财政负担不断加重的担忧正在慢慢积聚。 对美国资产市场质量的持续担忧以及去美元化威胁继续对美元构成压力。 当日稍早，美国财政部长贝森特试图淡化美元走弱的担忧，声称"很大程度上是其他国家或其他货币在走强，而不是美元在走弱"。贝森特表示，欧洲的"财政扩 张"提振了欧元，而日本央行的加息则支撑了日元。但市场显然不买账： 周五彭博美元指数的跌幅明显超过正常水平，价格跌破4月低点，创年内新低。 ICE美元指数周四反弹失败，周五重挫下跌，一度跌破99整数关口。 财政扩张与货币竞争：美元跌势的外部推手 报道表示，投资者的恐慌情绪并非毫无根据。 特朗普的减税法案引发的财政赤字担忧已经推动长期美债遭遇抛售 ，30年期国债收益率本周上涨0.13个百分点，突破5%关口。BBH分析师警告： 周五，美元对包括欧元和日元在内的一篮子货币下跌0.9%，本周累计跌幅达到2%。最令市场担忧的是美元对高利率环境的异常反应。通常情况下， 更高的收 益率会增加美元资产的吸引力，但当前美元、美国政府债券和股票同时下跌的现象，被视为投资者恐慌抛售美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a controversial event called "Trump Coin Night," held at Trump's golf club, highlighting the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency, particularly focusing on the involvement of major crypto figures like Sun Yuchen and the implications for the crypto industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was attended by 220 major holders of "Trump Coin," with the top 25 receiving VIP meeting opportunities with Trump [1]. - Sun Yuchen, founder of TRON, was the center of attention, receiving a $100,000 Trump-branded watch during the event [2]. - Trump's speech criticized the Biden administration's stance on cryptocurrency and promised to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world" [3]. Group 2: Ethical Concerns and Protests - The event faced ethical scrutiny, with protesters outside the venue chanting against perceived corruption in cryptocurrency [8][11]. - Senator Jeff Merkley labeled the dinner as "the peak of corruption," and there were concerns about potential violations of federal gift regulations [13][14]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Over $148 million has been invested in Trump Coin to secure dinner seats, with 80% of the coin controlled by Trump's family and associated entities, valued at over $10 billion [15][16]. - The transaction fees from Trump Coin have reportedly generated over $300 million for insiders, with Trump's entities potentially earning up to $100 million from these fees [16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Trump Coin experienced a significant price drop of approximately 80% from its January peak, indicating high volatility and speculative nature [18]. - The article suggests that only a small group of early investors profited, while many ordinary investors faced substantial losses, characterizing Trump Coin as a typical meme coin reliant on hype and celebrity influence [19].