一贯热衷于唱衰中国的《纽约时报》并非突然转性，而是他们有更加需要唱衰的对象 —— 特朗普。 这篇文章多角度地 指责特朗普 ，说他 正在大 肆破坏美国力量和创新的支柱，执着于关税，而没有意识到中国构成的威胁有多大。 在美国精英阶层看来，中美正在进行 决定一个世纪世界格局的生死角力，而特朗普居然在执着于 区区 贸易逆差，短视到令人痛心疾首。 属于美国的世纪 在美国精英阶层看来，正是过去优秀的战略， 让美国得以 " 领导 " 全球近一个世纪。 点击图片▲立即试听 " 对付敌人要比对付朋友来得简单。 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 《一个属于中国的世纪可能已经到来》，这是《纽约时报》 5 月 19 日的一篇重点社论 。 1946 年，时任美国驻苏联大使的乔治 · 凯南 ， 给华盛顿拍了一份长达 6000 字的电报，题为《对苏联的指控》， 他 指出 ， 斯大林一定会扩张 自己国家的实力， 并 且 不惜伤害美国的利益。 乔治 · 凯南与他发送的电报 图源：网络 一年后，凯南又发表了一篇社论，题为《苏联外交行为的根源》，驳斥了战后美苏可以通过强强联盟来维持世界稳定的 " 幼稚想法 " ，他将苏联 比喻为一个发条玩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of early mortgage repayments in China, driven by declining deposit rates and the impact of economic policies on the housing market and consumer behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Early Repayment Trends - There has been a noticeable increase in early mortgage repayments, with individuals repaying amounts ranging from 50,000 to over 100,000 yuan [1]. - Data from the central bank indicates that household loans increased by 518.4 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, but there was a negative growth of 52.16 billion yuan in April, suggesting that repayment amounts exceeded new loan amounts [4][5][10]. - The trend of early repayments is not merely anecdotal, as it is reflected in the financial data for April, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior [7][9]. Group 2: Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is experiencing a downturn, with new home sales in April dropping by 40% compared to March, and major cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing significant declines in second-hand home transactions [10][11]. - Despite the poor performance in April, historical patterns suggest that the market may rebound in May due to potential policy interventions [12][13]. - The article anticipates that new policies may be introduced to stimulate the housing market, as April is typically a weaker month for sales [12][13]. Group 3: Banking Sector Responses - In response to declining net interest margins, banks have been adjusting mortgage rates, with some cities raising rates just before anticipated cuts [18][19]. - The article highlights that banks are facing pressure to maintain profitability, leading to restrictions on early repayments and adjustments in deposit rates that exceed the reductions in loan rates [20][22]. - The decline in deposit rates may lead consumers to prioritize early loan repayments over other spending, reflecting a shift in financial strategy among households [22][24]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - The ongoing decline in housing prices is contributing to a "negative asset effect," where consumers feel pressured to save and reduce spending due to falling property values [24][30]. - High household leverage, estimated at 64.2% to 75%, is causing consumers to focus on debt repayment rather than consumption, impacting overall economic growth [30][31]. - The article suggests that while early repayments may seem rational, they could further suppress consumer spending, necessitating targeted policy measures to restore confidence in the housing market and broader economy [31].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Banking Sector - The People's Bank of China announced a 10 basis point reduction in both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), bringing them to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking the first decrease of the year [1] - Major banks in China, including the "Big Four," have followed suit by lowering deposit rates, with the largest cut being 25 basis points [1] - The overall net interest margin for banks is expected to decline further, compressing profitability amid a challenging economic environment [1] Group 2: Real Estate and Loan Market - Many cities have not reduced mortgage rates following the LPR cut, instead opting to lower the LPR deduction, keeping mortgage rates around 3% [2] - The current loan rate of approximately 3% is seen as the bottom line for banks to maintain profitability in their lending operations [2] Group 3: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - Shanghai ranked first in the 2024 SME Development Environment Assessment, with overall scores improving from 7.46 in 2020 to 8.50 in 2024 [3][4] - The report indicates that while the environment for SMEs has improved, there remains a significant regional imbalance, with eastern cities leading [4] Group 4: Automotive Industry - As of April 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles in China reached 3.5 million units, an increase of 150,000 from the previous month, indicating rising inventory levels [5] - The average inventory days for vehicles is now 57 days, slightly higher than the previous years, suggesting increased pressure on sales [5][6] Group 5: Rare Earth Industry - China has implemented export controls on seven categories of rare earth elements, leading to a significant increase in prices for certain materials, with prices for dysprosium and terbium rising 2-3 times in Europe [7] - China controls approximately 85% of global rare earth refining capacity, making these measures impactful on the global supply chain [7] Group 6: Technology and Consumer Electronics - Huawei launched its first HarmonyOS computers, with prices starting at 23,999 yuan, marking a significant step in its strategy to reduce reliance on foreign technology [10] - The HarmonyOS ecosystem is still developing, with limited software compatibility posing challenges for user adoption [11] Group 7: Financial Markets - On May 20, the Chinese stock market saw a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.38% amid active trading in consumer and pharmaceutical sectors [14] - The market is experiencing a period of volatility, with a mix of sector performances and investor sentiment [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive developments in China-US trade relations following negotiations, highlighting a significant increase in shipping orders and a reduction in tariffs, which reflects a deeper economic interdependence between the two countries [3][7][33]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Market Reactions - After the China-US trade negotiations, there was a nearly 300% surge in container orders for shipping to the US, indicating a warming of trade relations [3][7]. - The initial tariffs imposed by the US reached as high as 245%, but post-negotiation, they have been reduced to 10%, 20%, and 30%, which many businesses can manage [7][10]. - The negotiations have led to a positive response in both the US and European markets, with a notable recovery in the Chinese stock market [7][10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Negotiations - Various factors contributed to the successful negotiations, including the recognition by US businesses of the detrimental effects of the trade war on the US economy [8][10]. - Major multinational companies, such as Apple and Walmart, have significant stakes in the Chinese market, which has pressured the US government to reconsider its tariff policies [9][10]. Group 3: Future of Globalization - The article emphasizes that globalization remains a dominant trend despite the presence of anti-globalization sentiments, as countries are increasingly interdependent [22][23]. - China is positioned to leverage its robust infrastructure and talent pool to enhance its global competitiveness [23][30]. - The shift towards a "world for the world" strategy is seen as essential for Chinese companies to mitigate risks and expand their market presence globally [26][30]. Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Companies - Chinese companies are encouraged to invest in the US to mitigate potential trade risks, with examples of successful investments in various sectors [25][30]. - The article suggests that collaboration with local US businesses can create mutually beneficial partnerships, enhancing the viability of Chinese investments in the US [29][30]. Group 5: Conclusion and Outlook - The article concludes with an optimistic view of the future for Chinese enterprises, emphasizing the importance of adapting to the evolving global landscape and the potential for increased cooperation and mutual benefit in international trade [32][33].

5月19日，国家统计局发布的房价数据显示，2025年4月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比持平或略降，同比降幅均持续收 窄。4月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.1%转为持平。其中，北京和上海分别上涨0.1%和0.5%，广州和深圳分别下降 0.2%和0.1%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比持平，与上月相同。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同。 4月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.2%转为下降0.2%。其中上海上涨0.1%，广州持平，北京和深圳分别下降0.6%和0.3%。 二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比均下降0.4%，降幅比上月分别扩大0.2个和0.1个百分点。（国家统计局网站） ｜点评｜ "稳楼市"政策效应逐渐减弱，加上关税影响，一些购房人可能推迟买房计划，整体而言，4月楼市出现了弱复苏的迹象。尽管此前在政 策支持下，市场预期有所改善，但从销售层面来看，房地产市场依然延续了以价换量的行情，其中二手房市场的表现尤为明显。部分地区取消 了二手房限售，场内供应增加，或也在短期内对市场形成了冲击。 点击上图 ▲立即加入 4月全国规上工业增加值 ...

点击图片▲立即试听 " 在我密集走访的这些中国人形机器人企业中，我明显感觉到，无论是在软件的机器人大脑，还是在硬件的具体制造上，中国都与美国并驾齐驱，甚至在很多零部件 领域，我们具备了制定标准和协议的能力。 " —— 吴晓波 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 轮流坐庄的时代里，不断有新的产业被称作"制造业皇冠上的明珠"。 这个称号曾经属于汽车工业，未来很可能即将属于机器人产业。 吴老师多次表示，"机器人产业是中国的下一个10万亿巨型产业"。国金证券在研报中也写道，"2025年是人形机器人量产元年"。 实际上，制造业的演进就是机器人产业的革命。 当中国消费者欣喜于用合理的价格，就能买下一台功能齐全、质量优秀的智能汽车产品，并将其归功于中国制造业的进步时，也应该注意到——与 智能汽车产品通用大部分零件的智能机器人产业，也正受益于此。 其实如果我们把视角再拉近点看，在刚刚过去的五一假期，就已不断有机器人与游客"奔现"：人形机器人承担AI导游和游客引导任务、人形机器 人在襄阳古隆中景区展演、人形外骨骼机器人协助登山…… 在此，我们梳理了摩根士丹利报告中的关键信息和数据，用7张数据图和大家聊聊这个"新星产业"。 ...

点击上图▲立即报名 2025年6月19日—6月20日，相约"生而全球·共融共建"第二届出海全球峰会， 1500+企业出海掌舵人再聚狮城，与吴晓波、王辉耀、秦朔、津上俊哉、林雪萍、黄 兆华等嘉宾，共同探索中企出海从"产能迁徙"到"文明共生"的新路径。 为助力中国企业出海人才培养与发展事业，现启动《中国企业出海人才培养报告》年 度调研，诚邀已出海或计划出海的企业抽出3分钟时间填写问卷。 参与者将获赠《企业出海避坑指南》音频课及出海报告合集，并有机会抽取价值 3980元的新加坡"第二届出海全球峰会"门票一张。 【点击此处，填写问卷】 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号： 吴晓波频道） 当前，国际经贸环境复杂多变，但中国企业的出海步伐依然坚定。 近日，在海外一路狂飙的蜜雪冰城，与巴西出口投资促进局主席在京签署《谅解备忘录》，预示其将以高歌猛进之姿进入巴西市场。 据公开信息，蜜雪冰城计划未来3—5年在巴西投资超40亿元人民币，建设供应链工厂并开设门店，预计将创造2.5万个本地就业岗位。 那个曾在学校门口兜售"2元冰淇淋"和"4元柠檬水"的小小门店，仅用7年时间就在海外12个国家开出了超5000家门店，如今全球总门店数突破 4. ...

几乎所有伟大的创业都源于一个愿景。 1975年，比尔 ・ 盖茨和保罗・艾伦创立微软时，他们希望计算机能摆上每一张桌子，进入每一个家庭。愿景驱动下，微软在其后几十年里推动了 计算机产业变革，引领信息革命。比尔 ・ 盖茨五十年前的想法在今时今日早已成现实。 点击图片▲立即试听 对话 / 吴晓波 × 冯森 整理 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 于乐播投屏创始人冯森而言，其愿景是实现 "万屏互联"，各种信息能在不同屏幕间无缝流转，并以此连接人类生活中的万事万物。 这一愿景的灵感，源自美国康宁公司在 2011 年 2 月发布的一条极具科幻想象力的宣传片 ——《A day made of glass》。康宁玻璃是一家世界领 先的玻璃显示屏技术企业，华为、三星等众多品牌电子设备的屏幕，皆采用其产品。 视频中，透明显示屏的应用场景令人印象深刻：厨房里，透明显示屏从冰箱门顺滑延展至橱柜，家庭成员轻滑屏幕，便能查看冰箱内食材保质期， 还能调出菜谱；客厅里，孩子一挥手就能将平板游戏投屏放大，与小伙伴沉浸式玩耍；办公室内，人们通过简单操作就能将内容投屏到会议屏幕。 从家庭、办公到交通、户外，各类触摸显示屏无处不在，而投屏技术则 ...

" 出海巴西， ' 想去 ' 是一回事， ' 能不能去 ' 则是另一回事。 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 万里之外的南美大陆在中国的社交平台引发热议。 不过，这次大家聊的不是足球也不是 LadyGaga 最新的百万人演唱会，而是一张照片 —— 巴西总统卢拉与美团王兴的合照。 起因是巴西总统卢拉来访中国，五天四夜的时间里，与大家耳熟能详的企业美团、蜜雪冰城等 " 亲密互动 " 。 前者宣布将在未来 5 年投入约 10 亿美元，用于建设覆盖巴西全国的即时配送网络，正式宣布进军巴西，事后卢拉搀着王兴，成就名场面； " 后者则虽低调，但更务实，宣布将在未来 3—5 年采购不低于 40 亿人民币的农产品物资，并于今年落地巴西首店并启动本地供应链建设。 美团对于出海是出了名的谨慎，仅 2023 年才跨出第一步抵达香港地区，随后小步进发沙特与迪拜；蜜雪冰城则厚积薄发，低调出海东南亚皆有 所成，如今已经拥有全球第一的门店数量，被视作出海最成功的新茶饮品牌之一。 点击图片▲立即试听 两个行业巨头自带流量，均用真金白银为巴西代言。 代言者有 " 轻 " 亦有 " 重 " ，广汽也在同时间宣布，将在巴西建立研发中心，明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The short drama industry is experiencing rapid growth and transformation, but it faces challenges such as scams and a lack of effective value screening mechanisms, leading to both opportunities and risks for stakeholders [1][26]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The short drama market has exploded, with a user base reaching 570 million, accounting for 52% of the total internet users in China, surpassing other digital services [5]. - The proportion of free dramas has increased significantly from 11% in early 2023 to 50% by October 2023, indicating a shift towards a "no-cost" model that drives user growth [7]. - The market size of the micro-short drama industry is projected to reach approximately 504 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 35% [29]. Group 2: Content and Audience Dynamics - The audience for short dramas has shifted, attracting younger demographics and urban populations, leading to a diversification of content themes from sensationalist to more relatable narratives [20]. - The production costs for short dramas have risen significantly, with costs for a hundred-episode series now reaching 600,000 to 700,000 yuan, compared to just 100,000 yuan two years ago [22]. Group 3: Monetization and Platform Strategies - Platforms are adopting new monetization strategies, such as revenue sharing based on viewing time, to incentivize content creators and enhance user engagement [14][15]. - Major platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou are launching subscription models and ad-supported viewing options to attract users and increase revenue [12]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - The industry is facing issues with scams, where fraudulent schemes exploit the popularity of short dramas to deceive users, particularly targeting vulnerable groups [3][26]. - The phenomenon of "low-cost, quick returns, high risks, and high rewards" characterizes the short drama market, leading to a high failure rate for many productions [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The short drama industry is expected to continue evolving, with predictions of surpassing the film industry in market size, indicating a significant shift in content consumption patterns [30]. - The integration of AI and other technologies is anticipated to further transform the industry, creating new opportunities for innovation and business models [34].