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两种方法,从中年危机到找回中年之美
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-10 17:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from a midlife crisis to a state of "midlife beauty," emphasizing the importance of self-care and mindfulness practices to alleviate stress and regain composure during middle age [5][4]. Summary by Sections Self-Care and Midlife Beauty - Middle-aged individuals experience increased responsibilities and stress, yet they also possess a level of stability and richness in life that can be termed "midlife beauty" [2][4]. - The process of moving from a midlife crisis to midlife beauty involves self-care practices [5]. Mindfulness and Writing Techniques - The article introduces two practical methods for reducing midlife stress: "Heart Writing" and "Mindfulness" [5][24]. - Heart Writing consists of three practices: free writing, thematic writing, and guided writing [6]. Heart Writing Practices - Free writing encourages continuous writing without concern for grammar or coherence, allowing emotions to be expressed visibly on paper [8][9]. - Thematic writing focuses on specific topics, such as relationships or personal experiences, and includes writing letters to oneself or others to foster self-awareness and healing [11][12][13]. - Guided writing uses prompts to help individuals recall memories and feelings, enhancing self-reflection [14][15]. Value of Writing - Writing serves as a tool for developing a third-person perspective, allowing individuals to observe their emotions and relationships more objectively [17][21]. - This practice can significantly improve interpersonal relationships by fostering understanding and reducing emotional turmoil [21]. Mindfulness Techniques - Mindfulness, as explained by Thich Nhat Hanh, involves being aware of the present moment and can be practiced through breathing exercises and body scans [26][30]. - Breathing techniques help individuals detach from overwhelming emotions and return to a state of calm [30][32]. - Mirror exercises encourage self-acceptance and gratitude, promoting a positive self-image [33]. Recommended Reading - The article concludes with a list of recommended books that address themes of midlife crisis and self-care, including "The Middle-Aged Road" and "Necessary Losses" [35].
6月CPI同比上涨0.1%,广汽菲克公司宣告破产 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-09 15:40
Group 1: Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with urban areas increasing by 0.1% and rural areas decreasing by 0.2% [1] - The PPI in June 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating pressure on industrial profitability [2] - The overall CPI for the first half of the year decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market - In Shenzhen, the supply of Grade A office buildings decreased by 35% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a total new supply of 235,000 square meters [3] - The vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen rose to 27.8%, while average rent fell to 160.1 yuan per square meter, a 5.3% decrease from the end of last year [3] - The local government in Wuxi's Binhu District introduced housing purchase subsidies for participants of the Jiangsu Super League, aiming to stimulate the real estate market [5] Group 3: Automotive Industry - GAC Fiat Chrysler Automobiles announced its bankruptcy due to insurmountable operational challenges, including quality control issues and declining sales [6][7] - The company, established in 2010, faced significant challenges after its Jeep models were criticized for quality problems, leading to a sharp decline in sales post-2018 [6] Group 4: Financial Sector - Yilian Bank faced a controversy regarding the early redemption of a three-year deposit product, raising concerns among depositors about the bank's financial stability [9][10] - The bank has been struggling with high non-performing loan rates and a reliance on high-interest deposits, which has created operational pressures [10] Group 5: Market Trends - The MSCI Global Index reached a historical high, increasing by approximately 10% this year, driven by strong performances in European markets [12] - Despite global economic uncertainties, many stock markets have shown resilience, particularly in Europe, where the banking and defense sectors have led the gains [12]
“第一批吃螃蟹”的职业本科生|一线
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-09 15:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and shortcomings of vocational undergraduate education in China, highlighting the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical skills, as well as the low recognition of vocational degrees in the job market [1][15][50]. Group 1: Current State of Vocational Education - The "招本" plan from Zhengzhou Railway Vocational Technical College has gained attention, with 45 undergraduate students enrolled in specialized programs [3][4]. - The employment rate for graduates from this college has consistently exceeded 90% over the past three years, contrasting sharply with the overall employment rate of 55.5% for 2024 college graduates [7]. - The rapid growth of vocational education is evident, with the establishment of 32 new vocational undergraduate institutions in the first half of the year, bringing the total to 87 nationwide [8]. Group 2: Student Experiences and Challenges - Many students, like Xiao Wang and Xiao Zhang, express disappointment with their vocational education, feeling unprepared for the job market and often abandoning their fields of study [11][15]. - The curriculum often mimics traditional undergraduate programs, focusing heavily on theory rather than practical training, leading to a lack of engagement and interest among students [14][15]. - Graduates from vocational programs face challenges in job applications, as many employers do not recognize vocational degrees, leading to a sense of insecurity among graduates [16][15]. Group 3: Institutional Differences and Development - There is a notable divide between public and private vocational institutions, with private institutions often leading the way in innovation and exploration [29][30]. - The article highlights the disparity in educational quality and outcomes between economically developed regions and less developed areas, with regions like the Pearl River Delta showing superior vocational education standards [30][31]. - The article emphasizes the need for deeper reforms in vocational education to avoid the "new wine in old bottles" phenomenon, stressing the importance of top-level design and alignment with market needs [50][51].
“大而美”法案,特朗普就任以来的最大胜利?| 每天听见吴晓波
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-09 08:32
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act by the U.S. House of Representatives, highlighting its significant tax cuts for corporations and wealthy individuals while adversely affecting lower-income populations [3][4][12]. Summary by Sections Tax Cuts and Economic Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" Act permanently extends the corporate and personal tax cuts from Trump's first term, reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and extending tax incentives for business investments [6][7]. - Most personal and estate tax provisions set to expire in 2025 are also made permanent, benefiting wealthy individuals while cutting $1.2 trillion from programs like Medicaid and food assistance [8][11]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the act could lead to 11.8 million Americans losing health insurance and 3 million low-income individuals losing food assistance over the next decade [8]. Criticism and Social Consequences - The act has been criticized as a "robbing the poor to pay the rich" policy, as it disproportionately benefits the wealthy at the expense of the working class and vulnerable populations [12]. - According to Yale University, the lowest-income Americans may see a 2.3% decrease in after-tax income over the next decade, while the highest-income individuals could see a 2% increase [11]. Environmental and Defense Spending Changes - The act effectively dismantles Biden's green energy policies, eliminating tax incentives for electric vehicle purchases and increasing support for traditional energy sources [13]. - It also significantly boosts military spending and immigration enforcement, allocating an additional $150 billion for military and $70 billion for border enforcement [14]. National Debt Implications - The act is projected to increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion, raising it to nearly $40 trillion, with a provision to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [15]. - Analysts view the passage of this act as a major legislative victory for Trump, marking a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy from Biden's focus on clean energy and social welfare to Trump's tax cuts and defense spending [15][16].
国内挖掘机销量增超两成,三星预计净利润暴跌56% | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-08 17:56
Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. President Trump threatened tariffs on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% depending on the country [1] - The U.S. has only reached limited trade agreements with a few countries, while negotiations with major partners like the EU and India have stalled [1] - The extension of the tariff delay until August 1 has pushed uncertainty forward, reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July [2] Group 2: Steel Industry - Nippon Steel plans to increase crude steel production to 100 million tons over the next decade, aiming to regain its position as the world's largest steel producer [3] - The company is focusing on expanding production in the U.S. and India to compete with Chinese firms, which have dominated the market [3][4] - Despite expansion efforts, Nippon Steel may struggle to compete on cost with Chinese steelmakers, who are also targeting the high-end steel market [4] Group 3: Excavator Sales - In June 2025, excavator sales in China reached 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with domestic sales up 6.2% [5] - The total sales for the first half of 2025 were 120,520 units, reflecting a 16.8% increase year-on-year, driven by infrastructure projects and special bond issuance [5][6] - The construction equipment market is influenced by local government funding and the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market [6] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Samsung Electronics expects a 56% drop in operating profit for Q2, primarily due to challenges in its chip business and inventory adjustments [7] - The company has faced significant losses in its foundry business, estimated at over 4 trillion won, due to competition with TSMC and loss of Chinese orders [7][8] - Samsung's misjudgment of the HBM chip market has widened the gap with competitors, impacting its ability to capitalize on the AI chip demand [8] Group 5: OpenAI's Financials - OpenAI's stock-based compensation surged to $4.4 billion, accounting for 119% of its revenue last year, with expectations to drop to 45% this year [11] - The high stock compensation has diluted external investors' equity value and poses challenges for future fundraising [12] - OpenAI's reliance on stock incentives to retain talent amid competition from companies like Meta highlights its financial struggles [12] Group 6: Tesla's Market Performance - Tesla's market value dropped by approximately $68 billion following CEO Elon Musk's announcement of forming a new political party, raising investor concerns [13] - The company reported a 13.5% year-on-year decline in vehicle deliveries for Q2, marking a continuous drop for two consecutive quarters [13] - Musk's political ambitions may distract him from company operations, potentially affecting Tesla's performance and stock value [14] Group 7: Market Overview - The Chinese stock market saw a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.7% and trading volume reaching 1.45 trillion yuan [15] - Various sectors, including computing hardware and solar energy, experienced significant gains, while financial sectors lagged [15][16] - The market's upward movement is driven by speculation and news rather than strong underlying fundamentals [16]
25%-40%,特朗普给转口贸易标好了价格
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-08 17:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of U.S. trade policies under Trump, particularly the impact of new tariffs on various countries, including Japan and South Korea, and the implications for companies engaged in international trade [1][33]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, with additional tariffs on 12 other countries starting August 1 [3][6]. - The tariffs are seen as a strategy to pressure countries into compliance and to deter transshipment practices aimed at avoiding tariffs [10][30]. - Japanese companies, particularly in the automotive and electronics sectors, are expected to face increased costs and may need to adjust their supply chains [12][22]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The Japanese and South Korean stock markets remained stable following the announcement, indicating a cautious optimism among traders [14]. - Companies are exploring markets outside the U.S. due to the unpredictability of U.S. trade policies, with discussions on expanding into regions like Southeast Asia [2][26]. Group 3: Future Trade Dynamics - The article suggests that the U.S. trade negotiation strategy may shift from broad tariffs to more targeted measures focusing on supply chains and international taxation [66]. - Japan is likely to pursue diplomatic negotiations and may seek exemptions for key industries from the new tariffs [39][40]. - The long-term outlook indicates that U.S.-Japan trade tensions may become a regular feature, but a full-scale trade war is considered unlikely [45][50]. Group 4: Recommendations for Companies - Companies relying on transshipment through Japan may face increased scrutiny and costs, necessitating a reassessment of their supply chain strategies [57][63]. - Businesses are advised to diversify their markets and consider relocating production to avoid U.S. tariffs, with a focus on Southeast Asia and Mexico as alternative options [78][79].
养老消费季活动启动,外卖大战上演大爆单 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-07 15:09
Group 1: Elderly Care Services - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce are launching a nationwide "Elderly Care Service Consumption Season" from July to December, aimed at promoting elderly care consumption and improving the quality of life for seniors [1] - The initiative includes innovative activities, enhancing service quality, increasing service supply, and implementing policies to reduce costs for enterprises [1][2] - The program is expected to stimulate the domestic elderly care industry, addressing the growing demand for quality elderly services amid an accelerating aging population [1][2] Group 2: Global Manufacturing PMI - In June 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.5%, indicating a slight increase but still below the expansion threshold of 50% [3] - The Americas' manufacturing PMI was at 48.6%, while Asia's PMI was at 50.7%, showing a mixed recovery across regions [3] - The overall manufacturing sector remains in a contraction phase, with varying recovery rates influenced by trade policies and economic conditions [3][4] Group 3: Japanese Wage Trends - Japan's real wages fell by 2.9% in May 2025, marking the largest decline in 20 months, as inflation outpaced nominal wage growth [5] - The consumer inflation rate significantly exceeded wage increases, leading to a decrease in household purchasing power [5] - The ongoing wage stagnation amidst high inflation raises concerns about domestic consumption and economic stability [5][6] Group 4: Food Industry Challenges - The price of white feather chickens in Shandong has dropped below 3 yuan per jin, leading to significant losses across the industry [9] - The oversupply in the market has resulted in a continuous decline in prices, with many producers facing financial difficulties [9][10] - The overall meat market is experiencing a downturn, exacerbated by reduced demand and competition from alternative protein sources [9][10] Group 5: Delivery Service Competition - Recent promotional activities in the food delivery sector have led to record-breaking order volumes, with Meituan processing 1.2 billion orders in a single day [7] - The intense competition and heavy subsidies are causing significant financial strain on delivery platforms, impacting their profitability [8] - The reliance on subsidies to attract users may not be sustainable in the long term, as the market matures and consumer preferences evolve [8] Group 6: Financial Market Developments - The largest bank ETF in A-shares has completed a 1:2 share split, aimed at making the fund more accessible to investors [14] - The banking sector has shown strong performance, with all stocks in the sector reporting gains this year [14][15] - The share split is seen as a marketing strategy to attract more investors, although the underlying value of the fund remains unchanged [15]
外卖大战喂饱了谁?
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-07 15:09
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition in the Chinese tea and coffee market is intensifying, with major players like Luckin Coffee and Kudi vying for market share, while external factors such as price wars and consumer preferences are shaping the landscape [4][20][34]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price war initiated by Meituan and Taobao has significantly increased order volumes, with Taobao surpassing 80 million daily orders and Meituan exceeding 120 million [4]. - The share of tea and coffee orders on major delivery platforms has surged, with JD's tea and coffee orders exceeding 50% and Ele.me's increasing to 25% due to aggressive subsidies [4][5]. - The competition is characterized by a diverse array of brands, indicating a fragmented market with many regional players [7][34]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Luckin Coffee has expanded its store count to 24,032, while Kudi has reached over 15,000 stores, with ambitious plans to open 50,000 by year-end [7][20]. - Luckin is adopting a strategy similar to Bawang Chaji, focusing on plant-based milk coffee targeting younger consumers, while Kudi resembles Mixue Ice City, appealing to a younger demographic with frozen fruit coffee [20]. - The overall market is experiencing a decline in rental prices and foot traffic, which is affecting operational viability for many brands [21][22]. Group 3: International Expansion - Chinese tea and coffee brands are increasingly looking to expand internationally, with several brands opening stores in North America [8][10][12]. - The success of these brands abroad will depend on their ability to adapt to local consumer preferences and market conditions [28][30]. - There is a significant opportunity for Chinese brands to leverage their strengths in innovation and supply chain management to capture market share in the global arena [38]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current competitive landscape is reminiscent of the 2015 O2O battle, suggesting potential risks and challenges ahead [33]. - Companies are advised to focus on product quality and sustainable business practices rather than merely expanding store counts [36]. - The Chinese tea and coffee market still has room for growth, particularly in regions that have yet to fully engage with coffee culture [39][40].
马斯克建“美国党”,比造火箭难多了
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-07 00:17
Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's decision to establish a new political party, the "America Party," reflects his growing discontent with the current political landscape and his deteriorating relationship with former President Donald Trump [2][8]. Group 1: Formation of the America Party - The America Party aims to "return freedom to the American people" and was announced on Musk's social media platform, X [2]. - The party's formation lacks formal ceremonies, political programs, or significant public support events, resembling a casual Silicon Valley style [5][6]. - As of the article's publication, there is no confirmation that the America Party has completed the necessary legal processes to participate in elections [7]. Group 2: Relationship with Trump - Musk was previously a major supporter of Trump, donating nearly $300 million during the last presidential election and serving as a close advisor [9][10]. - Their relationship soured over disagreements regarding a bill that Musk criticized for increasing federal deficits, which Trump defended [11][12]. - Musk's dissatisfaction with the bill led him to suggest the formation of a new party, coinciding with Trump's signing of the bill on July 4 [14]. Group 3: Challenges for Third Parties - The legal requirements for establishing a new political party in the U.S. are complex and vary by state, often favoring the two major parties [17][20]. - Historical context shows that third parties in the U.S. have struggled to gain traction, with many failing to secure seats in Congress [20][24]. - The America Party may face similar challenges, as mainstream parties could absorb its core ideas, diminishing its uniqueness and appeal [25]. Group 4: Political Strategy - Musk's strategy involves targeting specific congressional seats and influencing legislative outcomes, aiming to act as a disruptor in the political landscape [28][29]. - Political analysts suggest that while the America Party's candidates may not win, they could disrupt Republican campaigns and influence voter dynamics [29]. Group 5: Impact on Business - Musk's political involvement and the controversies surrounding it may negatively affect Tesla's brand reputation and sales, which have already seen a decline [38]. - The article highlights the tension between Musk's political ambitions and his responsibilities as a business leader, particularly in light of Tesla's performance [38].
现在网络上的人都很自信,这种自信有没有道理?
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-07 00:17
Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the transformation of Shanghai, particularly the development of Pudong, and contrasts the experiences of different generations in witnessing this change, emphasizing the importance of understanding the past to shape the future [2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The author recalls the early days of Shanghai, highlighting the absence of skyscrapers in Pudong and the presence of the first McDonald's and KFC [2]. - The transformation of Pudong from a muddy area to a bustling metropolis with iconic buildings like the Oriental Pearl Tower and Jin Mao Tower is noted, showcasing the rapid urban development over the decades [2]. Group 2: Generational Perspectives - The article discusses the differing perceptions of Shanghai's development between older generations, who experienced poverty and significant lifestyle changes, and younger generations, who have grown up in a prosperous environment [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the confidence of today's youth is built on the sacrifices and efforts of their parents and previous generations, suggesting a need for awareness of this historical context [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The article raises questions about the future contributions of the younger generation to the country and the world, suggesting that progress may not solely be about constructing more skyscrapers but also about personal and collective contributions in various fields [3]. - It stresses the importance of mutual understanding between generations, where the youth should recognize the origins of their confidence and the responsibilities that come with it [3].