Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of deposit rates by major state-owned banks, which has a larger decline than the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicates a strategic move to alleviate internal pressures and prepare for potential economic fluctuations [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustments - On May 20, 2025, major state-owned banks lowered various deposit rates, with the 1-year and 5-year fixed deposit rates reduced by 15 and 25 basis points respectively, while the LPR was only reduced by 10 basis points [2]. - The cumulative reduction in deposit rates since September 2022 has been greater than that of the LPR, with the 1-year and 5-year fixed deposit rates down by 80 and 145 basis points respectively, compared to the LPR's decline of 70 and 110 basis points [10]. Economic Context - The adjustments in deposit rates are influenced by external factors such as the easing of exchange rate constraints and progress in US-China trade negotiations, which have led to a stronger RMB [5]. - Internally, the need to balance net interest margins and the pressure on banks due to declining profitability, with the net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.33% in Q1 2025, has prompted these rate cuts [7]. Future Implications - The larger reduction in deposit rates compared to the LPR creates room for potential further rate cuts, which may be necessary to address economic volatility and insufficient demand, particularly in investment [10]. - The current economic environment, characterized by fluctuating tariffs and their impact on corporate investment and local finances, necessitates a proactive approach to monetary policy [10].

来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 联系我们 官方网站：http://bestanalyst.cn 记得扫码关注微信公众号 「对冲研投」 寻找属于你的alpha 期货市场目前可供交易的工业品期货品种已有40余个，几乎占据了整个大宗商品市场的半壁江山。 近半年来，面对"跌跌不休"的工业硅&碳酸锂、迟迟难见回暖的黑色、阶段性走弱的化工品……你心中是否会有这样的疑问：工业品期货价 格距离上市以来低点有多远？ 一张图带你盘清楚，是谁在频频走低，又是谁在向上攀登！ | | | 交易理想国星球社群特供:期货&全球宏观交易全流程辅助工具&报告 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 工具表格或报告 | 目昭 | 使用难度 | 使用说明 | 是否需连接外部数据源 | | 研究阶段 | 《中国期货市场品种波动属性》 | 协助用户观察期货各品种不同频度下的波动 数据 易机会 | 较易 | 待上新 | 盗 | | | 《中国宏观价值相对套利》 | 协助用户观察宏观视角下各套利对品种的交 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | | 《中国期 ...

「对冲研投」 寻找属于你的alpha 客官！在看一下呗~ 联系我们 官方网站：http://bestanalyst.cn 记得扫码关注微信公众号 会议报名请扫描上方二维码或电话联系报名 联系人：雷胜海（物产中大期货产融发展部总经理） 联系电话：13575708573 END ...

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者有色组 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期几内亚铝土矿频频搅动市场，本文详细列出了今年几内亚和澳大利亚有增量预期的矿 山，以及其中大型矿山目前的发运量。最终得出结论：如果当前撤销许可证范围内的矿企 实现停产，我们仍能维持2024年报"海外新增矿石产量满足海内外氧化铝投产需求"的观 点。但应注意，后续几内亚政府仍有扩大撤销矿山许可证范围的风险；其次，此次行情原 因除近期基本面好转之外，盘面参与资金的多元化也成为影响本次反弹力度和时长的重要 影响因素。 01 市场对几内亚一事的反映 近期几内亚撤销铝土矿一事让市场情绪一再发酵，近远期合约接连涨停。那么今年几内亚铝土 矿的供应到底如何？ 图1：氧化铝2509合约走势图 数据来源：紫金天风期货研究所 02 今年海外矿山增量预期如何？ 我们详细梳理了今年几内亚和澳大利亚两大主要进口国的矿山后，仍然维持2025年二季报 中"海外新增矿石产量满足海内外氧化铝投产需求"的观点。 | 所属国家 | 矿区名称 | 所属公司名称 | ...

文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 上周 目前国内的一些利多因素也已经被近期的价格运行消化，无论是前期的降准降息，还是 4月出口数据保持韧性，抑或是贸易谈 判的进展，都没有让市场变得持续亢奋。市场对后续宏观的走弱还是有比较大的担忧。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 1、上周金价承压，铜价盘整 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金下跌 3 .72%，白银 下跌 1.37%；沪金2508合约 下跌 4.64%，沪银2508 合约下跌 1.09%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-1.34%、+0.89%。 2、 市场更加担忧潜在利空 上周宏观方面较为积极，中美贸易谈判取得超出大部分市场参与者的预期，并且双方后续在一些关键问题上还有进一步缓和 的空间。同时，美国宏观数据仍然表现出韧性，并且鲍威尔在讲话中明确指出后续联储的政策框架可能发生调整，不在锚定 2%的长期通胀目标，这意味着下半年降息的约束实际上有所放松。不过从市场的反映来看，目前价格对宏观方面的利多叙事 并不敏感，市场可能更倾向于交易一些潜在利空。 3、黄金继续承压 上周中美谈判结果大幅好于市场预期，两国关税较前期显著下行，同时海外地缘冲 ...

以下文章来源于大地期货研究院 ，作者刘慧华 大地期货研究院 . 大地期货研究院官方订阅号 观点小结 仓储：被定义为"对库存产品的临时保管，以备后续分发"，通常被用作存储的同 义词。存储只是仓储流程中的一个环节，即商品暂时静态存储的阶段。 仓储单元 ：为储存产品而建造或改造的建筑物或设施，这些建筑物或设施分为 :( i ) 常规仓库、 (ii) 结构仓库和充气仓库、 (iii) 散货仓库； iv) 散装化仓库； ( 五 ) 筒仓； e 、 vi) 袋装筒仓。 巴西仓储数据源：国家供应公司（ Conab ）维护和管理的全国仓储单位登记系统 （ SICARM ） ；由巴西地理统计局（ IBGE ）每半年开展一次的 库存调查 ；以 及 IBGE 每十年进行一次的 农业普查 ，其最近一次是在 2017 年。 2024 年静态容量：约 2.1-2.2 亿吨。 SICARM 显示， 89.3% 为散装货物的容 量； IBGE 显示，筒仓占比 49% ，散货型和散货化占比 34% 。 2017 年农业普查仓储分类：筒仓占比 60% ，传统仓库占 23% 。 88.8% 的仓 库属于农业经营单位所有。 粮农组织建议 一个国家的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the US remains, with significant implications from the recent tariff policies that could lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners, negatively impacting both the US and global economic growth while potentially increasing inflation in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The current US GDP growth rate is stable at over 2%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a relatively healthy economy [19]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement 5-6 rate cuts by the end of 2025, although there is a possibility of accelerating these cuts to stimulate the economy [19]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent US tariff policies are more aggressive than previous rounds, raising concerns about their potential to cool down the global economy [2]. - Historical data shows that previous tariff increases have led to significant declines in both imports and exports, as seen during the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which resulted in a 66% drop in US imports from 1930 to 1933 [22]. Group 3: China Economic Performance - China's economy showed resilience in the first quarter, but the likelihood of a slowdown in the second quarter has increased, suggesting a cautious outlook for the year [3]. - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, indicating a stable but cautious economic strategy [26]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The performance of various metals since May indicates a mixed response to tariff announcements, with gold and silver prices declining by 3.9% and 1.3% respectively, while aluminum and tin saw increases of 1.7% and 1.8% [9]. - The volatility in the commodity market is expected to decrease in the second quarter, reflecting a more stable trading environment [31]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Industry Dynamics - Close attention is required on supply-side disruptions that could affect commodity pricing and availability [5]. - The influence of precious metals on the pricing dynamics of the non-ferrous sector is a critical area for monitoring [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the peanut market in China for the 2024/2025 production season, highlighting the reasons for the prolonged stalemate in supply and demand, the impact of natural disasters on production, and the cautious mindset of farmers regarding planting decisions [1][2][4][12]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic demand for peanuts is weak, particularly in the food-grade segment, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude among various market participants. The total sales volume in key distribution areas has decreased by approximately 20% in the 80 days following the 2025 Spring Festival [1]. - The production cost has increased due to lower-than-expected yields, with the average cost of peanut production reaching around 3.0 CNY per jin, while the market price is hovering around 4.1 CNY per jin, providing a psychological support level for prices [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Inventory Pressure - Despite predictions of a peak in farmer sales, there has been no significant selling pressure observed in the market. Current inventory levels are manageable, with approximately 100,000 tons of peanuts in stock across Liaoning province, which is expected to last until August [4]. - The sentiment among farmers is cautious, with many holding back on selling due to the need to maintain prices above their production costs [4][12]. Planting Area and Cost Trends - The planting area for peanuts in traditional regions is expected to stabilize between 80% and 90%, while some peripheral areas may see a slight decrease from 70% to 60-65% [8]. - The average production cost for peanuts in Liaoning province has decreased by approximately 100 CNY per mu compared to the previous year, with seed prices dropping from 5.7-5.8 CNY per jin to around 5.1 CNY per jin [10][8]. Future Outlook - The planting pace for the upcoming season may be slower due to the cautious attitude of farmers, with potential delays in the new crop's market entry. The market may experience tight inventory levels during August and September, which could lead to a price increase above 4.5 CNY per jin [12][13]. - The impact of natural disasters on production is expected to limit the likelihood of significant selling pressure in the Liaoning market, with the focus shifting to the consumption rate of existing inventory and weather conditions affecting the upcoming crop [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the structural forces driving global changes, rather than being distracted by short-term events that cause market volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Structural Forces Driving Global Change - Five major forces are currently shaping the evolution of the global landscape: 1) Debt and monetary systems, which are core variables affecting markets and economies [3][4] 2) Domestic wealth disparity and value division, which are reshaping political dynamics [3][8] 3) The process of international order/disorder, determining the evolution of global governance [3][9] 4) Natural forces, including droughts, floods, and pandemics, which are increasingly impacting economies [3][10] 5) Human innovation, particularly rapid technological advancements, which can bring both benefits and risks [3][11]. Group 2: Debt and Monetary System - The current high levels of government debt and deficits in the U.S. and other countries will primarily dictate future market and economic directions, rather than daily policy choices by leaders [4][5]. - The accumulation of debt will force governments to either raise taxes or increase debt monetization, both of which will have profound impacts on the market [5][6]. - The ability to attract capital inflows and create win-win situations will significantly help alleviate the current situation, contingent on management capabilities [6][7]. Group 3: Domestic Wealth Disparity and Value Division - The trend of wealth disparity has evolved into a structurally irreconcilable conflict, leading to the rise of populism and authoritarian politics, undermining democratic institutions and the rule of law [8][9]. Group 4: International Order - The current global landscape lacks a single dominant power, with many countries led by populist leaders favoring unilateralism, increasing the risks of geopolitical, trade, technological, and military conflicts [9]. Group 5: Natural Forces and Technological Innovation - The worsening of natural factors is leading to higher economic and real costs, with effective responses becoming a key indicator of national governance capabilities [10]. - Rapid technological innovation is enhancing human capabilities but also poses significant risks, marking a critical juncture for monetary, political, and international order [11][12]. Group 6: Recommendations - All short-term news should be viewed within the context of the five major forces shaping the long-term landscape, particularly regarding monetary, political, and international order [15]. - The current situation is on the brink of significant change, with the key being whether these transformations can be managed intelligently and collaboratively [16]. - In investment, a systematic framework is essential, including effective asset diversification, to avoid reactive strategies in response to news or market fluctuations [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in tariffs on rubber and tire imports to the United States, highlighting that while tariffs on certain Chinese tires remain unchanged, other products have seen a reduction in tariffs, which may have limited impact on the overall market due to low export volumes from China [2][5]. Tariff Modifications - Tariffs on Chinese passenger car and light truck tires remain at 25%, while other Chinese tires have been reduced to 10% (with a 24% rate paused for 90 days) [2][3]. - For Southeast Asian tires, tariffs remain unchanged at 25% for passenger and light truck tires, and 0% for other types [2]. Impact on Rubber Products - The reduction in tariffs for Chinese rubber products is down to 10% from a previous 24% [3]. - The actual volume of Chinese tires exported to the U.S. is low, with only 310,000 tons expected in 2024, translating to a mere 50,000 tons of rubber, indicating that tariff changes may not significantly affect rubber consumption [4]. Market Reactions and Expectations - The market has experienced a decline of 2,000 points, primarily driven by recession expectations and long positions being liquidated, rather than the direct impact of the 232 tariff [5][9]. - There is a noted decrease in bullish sentiment due to changes in underlying market logic, with supply exceeding market expectations [5][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply from major rubber-producing countries like Thailand and Indonesia has shown a year-on-year increase of over 10%, contradicting previous expectations of supply constraints [11]. - The article suggests that the basic logic of a long-term supply-demand gap may need to be reassessed based on current supply data [10]. U.S. Demand and Economic Indicators - U.S. freight demand has been weak, with cargo volumes near historical lows, which correlates with overall economic performance and PMI levels [18]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor terminal demand changes and how companies respond to tariff impacts, as these factors will influence inventory cycles [18]. International Tire Manufacturers' Perspectives - Major international tire manufacturers, such as Goodyear and Michelin, have expressed concerns about increased costs due to tariffs, estimating potential annual costs of $300 million, which they plan to pass on to consumers [29][32]. - There is an expectation that the effects of tariffs on tire imports may not be fully realized until the third quarter of the year [30]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment among international tire manufacturers is pessimistic regarding the impact of trade wars on tire and automotive demand, with expectations of reduced production in North America [32][33].