北京时间 5 月 7 日晚美股盘前，"国际滴滴"优步发布了 2025 年 1 季度财报，概括来看，当季业绩表现有些瑕疵，但对下季度的指引超预期对冲了当季不佳表现的 负面影响，详细要点如下： 1、网约车增长大幅放缓是最大 "雷点"： 本季 订单额同比增速仅 13.5%，环比滑坡 4.7pct，也明显低于并不高市场预期的 15%。 即便剔除汇率影响后 ， 增速同 样是从 24% 滑 坡到 20%，可见放缓 并不能全部归结于受逆风汇率的影响，业务确实有实质性的放缓。 2、另一支柱外卖业务的增长则意外的坚挺 ，（昨日 DoorDash 业绩是指向外卖增长偏弱的）。本季 订单金额同比增长了约 15%，虽看也环比放缓 3pct， 但高于 市场预期的 14.3%。 且剔除汇兑的拖累后，增速环比维持在 18% 不变。 据公司披露 生鲜及日用品等非餐外卖的年化订单额已达$100 亿，已相当于当前整体外卖订单额的 12% ，应当是增长的主要贡献来源之一。 3、 分价量驱动因素看， 核心业务订单量同比增速实际维持在 18% ， 相比上季并未减速 ，也高于市场预期的 16%。量的层面本季增长并不差。 主要是 平均客单价本季同比显著下 ...

Core Viewpoint - Disney's Q2 FY2025 results exceeded market expectations, particularly in profitability, leading to an upward revision of the company's outlook for the year [1][5]. Group 1: DTC Streaming Performance - The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy, including streaming bundles and account sharing measures, has shown positive results, with Disney+ netting an increase of 1.4 million subscribers in Q2, contrary to previous expectations of a slight decline [1]. - The anticipated growth in streaming profits is attributed to subscriber growth, price increases, the introduction of ad-supported packages, and better content bundling, which reduces resource wastage [1]. Group 2: Domestic Park Demand - Domestic park operations surprised analysts with a 2% year-over-year increase in visitor numbers, alongside a 5% rise in per capita spending, despite concerns over macroeconomic pressures and increased competition from new parks like Epic Universal [2]. - The launch of the "Treasure" cruise in December is expected to further boost local park revenues, with stable booking growth reported [2]. Group 3: Sports Business Outlook - The sports segment also outperformed expectations, with the profit growth forecast raised from 13% to 18% for the year [3]. - The upcoming launch of a flagship ESPN platform in August, which will integrate cable and streaming content, is anticipated to enhance market expectations [3]. Group 4: Financial Results Summary - Disney's total revenues for Q2 FY2025 were $246.9 million, beating consensus estimates by 0.36% [4]. - Operating income reached $50.6 million, exceeding expectations by 17.91%, with a year-over-year growth of 30.5% [4]. - Adjusted EPS was reported at $1.76, surpassing consensus by 23.08% [4].

Core Insights - ARM reported a total revenue of $1.241 billion for Q4 FY25, exceeding consensus estimates by 0.78% and marking a significant year-over-year growth of 33.7% [1] - The company achieved record annual revenue exceeding $4 billion and royalty revenue surpassing $2 billion, both historical highs [2] - Non-GAAP operating income reached a new high of $655 million, with Non-GAAP EPS at $0.55, at the upper end of the guidance range [3] Revenue Performance - Q4 FY25 total revenue was $1.241 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 33.7% [1] - Royalty revenue for Q4 FY25 grew 18% year-over-year to a record $607 million, driven by the launch of flagship smartphones utilizing Armv9 and custom chip solutions [2] - License revenue also saw significant growth, increasing over 50% year-over-year to a record $634 million, primarily due to demand for Armv9 technology and AI applications [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit for Q4 FY25 was $1.213 billion, with a gross margin of 97.7%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [1] - Operating income for Q4 FY25 was $410 million, showing a dramatic year-over-year increase of 1763.6% [1] Annualized Contract Value (ACV) and Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) - ACV for Q4 FY25 grew 15% year-over-year, surpassing the company's long-term expectations of mid-single-digit growth [4] - RPO decreased quarter-over-quarter as ARM recognized revenue from previously signed licensing agreements [5] Operating Expenses and Guidance - Non-GAAP operating expenses for Q4 FY25 were $566 million, reduced due to the deferral of some expenses to Q1 FY26 [6] - For Q1 FY26, ARM expects revenue between $1 billion and $1.1 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 12% at the midpoint [6] Market Dynamics and Strategic Developments - ARM's strong performance is attributed to the increasing demand for energy-efficient AI computing from cloud to edge [7] - The company anticipates that up to 50% of new server chips from major cloud service providers will be based on ARM architecture [7] - ARM's custom chip solutions are gaining traction, with significant partnerships and product launches enhancing its market position [8][9] Tax and Tariff Implications - ARM expects limited direct impact from tariffs on its royalty and license revenues, with potential indirect effects on demand yet to be fully assessed [11]

Applovin于美东时间5月7日美股盘后，发布了2025年一季度财报。在顶着五份看空报告的压力下，Applovin用一份 "预期之中也是预期之外" 的漂亮业绩，对空头 强势回击。 具体来看： 1. 指引不俗，电商逆势推进： 对于Applovin，海豚君还是最关心指引。虽然空头报告轮番轰炸，但对业绩本身的影响可能并不大。对于客户来说，是骡子是马， 自己的ROAS说了算。 年初以来，行业和宏观环境都发生了一些变化。游戏行业上，开发商仍然偏向于内购而非广告变现；而宏观则主要受制于关税，这对于今年主要讲电商故事的 Applovin来说，并不是好事。 但实际情况是，公司对Q2的收入指引（自有App已卖，这里只包含以前的"软件服务收入"，即广告收入） 隐含增速在68-71%区间，环比Q1几乎没有怎么放缓。 结合市场和海豚君自己的预期，拆分来看（仅供参考）： （1）预计Q1电商广告收入超2亿，环比近200%增长，进展相对顺利。游戏等其他广告收入则同比增长37%，相比行业个位数增长，同行均有承压影响（Meta提及 Q1游戏广告收入明显放缓；Unity Grow在有Vector的增量贡献下这部分收入还下滑4%），Applov ...

Core Financial Information Review - Robinhood's total revenues for Q1 2025 are projected to be $9.3 billion, reflecting a 50% increase year-over-year [1] - Transaction-based revenue is expected to reach $5.8 billion, with options contributing $2.4 billion and crypto $2.5 billion [1] - Operating profit is anticipated to be $3.7 billion, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 40% [1] Outlook - The acquisition of TradePMR is expected to incur costs of $85 million, leading to an updated annual adjusted operating expense forecast of $2.085 billion to $2.185 billion [2] - Nine major business segments are projected to generate annualized revenues exceeding $100 million each, with new products like futures and prediction markets contributing around $20 million annually [2] - Robinhood Strategies, Banking, and Bitstamp are expected to start generating revenue later this year, with many of these businesses projected to reach $100 million in annual revenue in the future [2] Stock Buyback - A $1 billion stock buyback program initiated in Q3 of last year has consumed $650 million to date, with an average buyback price of $33 per share [3] - In Q1, $300 million was used for buybacks, offsetting dilution from the TradePMR acquisition [3] - The board has authorized an additional $500 million for buybacks, leaving over $800 million available for future repurchases [3] Progress on Key Missions - Robinhood aims to be the leading active trading platform, with new futures and prediction products launched in Q1 [4][5] - The Robinhood Legend desktop trading platform has been enhanced with new features including cryptocurrency and index options [6] - Robinhood Strategies has over 40,000 clients and $100 million in assets, while Robinhood Banking is set to provide high-net-worth banking services [7][10] User Growth and Market Expansion - Gold credit card users have increased to 200,000, with a significant portion of new users quickly adopting the Gold subscription [9][10] - Retirement assets have grown to $16 billion, a 20% increase since the beginning of the year [8] - The acquisition of Bitstamp is expected to be completed by mid-year, further expanding Robinhood's market presence [9]

Core Viewpoint - Rivian's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations with a total revenue of $1.24 billion, significantly higher than the market's forecast of around $1 billion, driven by strong automotive and software service revenues [1][4] Financial Performance - The overall gross margin improved to 16.6%, marking a 7 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, contrasting with the market's expectation of a negative gross margin of -13.5% [1][4] - The automotive business revenue exceeded expectations by $160 million, while software service revenue surpassed forecasts by $100 million [1] Market Concerns - Despite the positive revenue figures, Rivian's guidance for 2025 raised concerns, with management lowering the annual delivery target to 40,000-46,000 vehicles and increasing capital expenditures by $100 million [2][4] - The company faces additional challenges due to tariff impacts, which could further complicate its operational outlook for the year [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - AMD reported a record revenue of $7.4 billion for Q1 2025, exceeding guidance and showing a year-over-year increase of 36% [2][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached $7.4 billion, with a gross margin of 54%, up 1.4 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - Operating expenses were $2.2 billion, a 28% increase year-over-year, leading to an operating profit of $1.8 billion and an operating margin of 24% [2][4]. - Diluted earnings per share were $0.96, reflecting a 55% year-over-year increase [2]. Business Segments - **Data Center**: Revenue of $3.7 billion, a 57% year-over-year increase, driven by market share gains in server CPUs and growth in Instinct GPUs [3][9]. Operating profit was $932 million with a margin of 25% [3]. - **Client and Gaming**: Revenue of $2.9 billion, up 28% year-over-year, benefiting from strong demand for Ryzen processors [3][14]. Client revenue was $2.3 billion, a 68% increase, with over half of the growth attributed to high-end product price increases [3]. - **Embedded**: Revenue of $823 million, down 3% year-over-year, with an operating profit of $328 million and a margin of 41% [4]. Financial Position - Free cash flow was $727 million, with $749 million returned to shareholders through stock buybacks [4]. - Cash reserves at the end of the quarter stood at $7.3 billion, with total debt reaching $1.5 billion [4]. Outlook - For Q2, AMD expects revenue between $7.4 billion ± $300 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin forecast of 43% [5][6]. - The company anticipates a revenue impact of approximately $1.5 billion due to export license requirements for the year [6]. - Client and gaming segments are expected to see double-digit percentage growth, while data center revenue may decline due to the absence of MI308 revenue [7]. Executive Commentary - AMD's Q1 performance was strong despite regulatory challenges, with significant growth across data center, client, and gaming segments [8]. - The company highlighted robust demand for its EPYC processors and successful partnerships with major enterprises [9][10]. - The introduction of new AI solutions and the acquisition of ZT Systems are expected to enhance AMD's capabilities in the AI market [13].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto has submitted a privatization proposal for Zeekr, aiming to acquire the remaining 34.4% of shares to make Zeekr a wholly-owned subsidiary and delist it from the NYSE, with a proposed purchase price of $25.66 per share, representing a 13.6% premium over the last closing price of $22.6 [1][2][18]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Geely currently holds approximately 65.7% of Zeekr's equity and plans to buy the remaining shares from minority shareholders [1]. - The acquisition price of $25.66 per share is a significant premium compared to Zeekr's recent trading price [1]. - Shareholders have the option to receive cash or exchange their shares for Geely stock at a ratio of 12.3 shares of Geely for each Zeekr ADS [1][2]. Reasons for Privatization - Zeekr's valuation is perceived to be significantly lower than that of other new energy vehicle companies, with a P/S ratio of 0.9 compared to competitors like Xiaopeng at 1.5 [3][5]. - The market has consistently undervalued Zeekr, leading to the decision for privatization as a means to address this issue [5]. - Zeekr's reliance on Geely for resources and production has resulted in a high debt-to-asset ratio, which is unattractive to investors [6][8]. Financial Implications - The total acquisition cost is estimated at $2.24 billion, which could exert cash flow pressure on Geely, as it represents 37% of its cash flow as of the end of 2024 [18]. - Geely plans to finance the privatization through a combination of new stock issuance, cash reserves, and debt financing if necessary [2][18]. Strategic Considerations - Geely aims to enhance internal resource integration and operational efficiency post-privatization, addressing internal conflicts and improving competitiveness [17]. - The merger with Lynk & Co. has not gone as planned, with ongoing production of fuel vehicles potentially confusing the brand's positioning in the electric vehicle market [10][16]. - Zeekr's declining sales and competitive position in the market have raised concerns about its future viability, necessitating a strategic overhaul [12][15].