Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building an inclusive and open Asia-Pacific economy through cooperation and shared development among member countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Multilateral Trade and Economic Cooperation - The need to jointly maintain a multilateral trade system and uphold the authority and effectiveness of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is highlighted, advocating for reforms that protect the rights of developing countries [4]. - There is a call for creating an open regional economic environment by promoting trade and investment liberalization, deepening financial cooperation, and advancing regional economic integration [4][5]. - The stability and smooth operation of industrial and supply chains are crucial, with an emphasis on collaboration rather than fragmentation, and the implementation of the APEC Connectivity Blueprint is encouraged [5][6]. Group 2: Digital and Green Trade - The article advocates for the digitalization and greening of trade, leveraging digital technologies to enhance cross-border trade and promoting cooperation in green industries and clean energy [5][6]. - Initiatives such as the establishment of the APEC Demonstration Electronic Port Network and the Green Supply Chain Network are presented as important platforms for regional trade cooperation [5]. Group 3: Inclusive Development - A focus on inclusive development is stressed, with a commitment to addressing imbalances in development and ensuring that economic globalization benefits all people in the region [5]. - China's initiatives, such as offering zero-tariff treatment on 100% of products to the least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China, are mentioned as efforts to support sustainable development [5][6]. Group 4: China's Commitment to Openness - China's commitment to an open economy is reiterated, with significant achievements in trade and foreign investment over the past five years, including attracting over $700 billion in foreign investment [6]. - The ongoing reduction of the negative list for foreign investment and the expansion of visa-free access are highlighted as steps towards greater openness [6].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [4] - Both production index and new orders index fell to 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting a decline in production and market demand [4] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI above the critical point, with indices at 50.9% for production and 50.1% for new orders, indicating sustained demand in this segment [4] Group 2: Key Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries continued to expand, with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all above the overall manufacturing level [5] - Conversely, high-energy-consuming industries saw a PMI of 47.3%, indicating a decline in economic activity [5] - Market expectations remain optimistic, with a production and business activity expectation index of 52.8%, suggesting confidence among manufacturers [5] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in the non-manufacturing sector [6] - The service sector's business activity index increased to 50.2%, with significant growth in sectors related to consumer travel and spending, such as rail and air transport [6][7] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, indicating a slight decline, but the business activity expectation index improved to 56.0%, reflecting better future outlooks [7] Group 4: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index stood at 50.0%, indicating overall stability in production and business activities across sectors [8] - The manufacturing production index was recorded at 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, contributing to the composite figure [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical evolution of tariffs as a significant policy tool in international trade, emphasizing their role in shaping economic strategies and national interests throughout different historical periods [3]. Group 1: Early Forms of Tariffs - Tariffs originated as "tolls" paid at city gates, ferry crossings, or ports, with minimal impact on national revenue, primarily supported by land and head taxes [5]. - The Age of Exploration marked a turning point, where tariffs transitioned from local fees to a central tool for national fiscal and economic policy due to the rise of international trade [5]. Group 2: Mercantilism and Tariffs - During the early stages of capitalism, European nations adopted mercantilist policies, imposing high tariffs on imports to protect domestic industries and promote exports, aiming to accumulate gold and silver [6]. - A notable example is the UK, where tariff revenues increased approximately 3.5 times from 1700 to 1800, consistently accounting for over 20% of central government revenue [6]. Group 3: Divergence of Trade Policies in the 19th Century - The 19th century saw a split between free trade and protectionism, with industrialized nations like the UK advocating for lower tariffs to expand markets for manufactured goods [6]. - In contrast, emerging industrial nations such as the US and Germany implemented high tariffs to protect nascent industries from British competition, highlighting the contrasting trade strategies of the time [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed open market operations for government bonds, reflecting a flexible adjustment approach to monetary policy, responding to the need for policy coordination, and boosting market confidence, which is expected to improve the bond market environment and supplement long-term liquidity for banks [2][3]. Reasons for Resuming Bond Operations - The resumption is due to the stabilization of the bond market and the return of yields to a reasonable range, necessitating coordination with fiscal policy and the need to supplement bank liquidity. This move aims to stabilize market expectations and smooth out fluctuations in the funding environment, potentially replacing the need for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [3][5]. - The expected scale of bond purchases in Q4 2023 is between 0.7 trillion to 1 trillion yuan, primarily to offset the 1 trillion yuan of maturing bonds in 2024, with 660 billion yuan having matured by September 2025 [3][5]. Improvement in Bond Market Environment - The initial suspension of operations was due to a unilateral decline in government bond yields, which fell to 1.6% for 10-year bonds, leading to an imbalance in supply and demand and accumulated risks. Currently, yields have rebounded to above 1.8%, and the yield curve has widened, indicating a return to rational market behavior [5]. - The stock market has strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, creating redemption pressure on bond funds. The resumption of operations can interrupt the negative feedback loop of "redemption → bond market decline → more redemptions" [5]. Impact on the Market - In the short term, the resumption is expected to boost market sentiment, while the medium-term impact is likely to be neutral. Following the announcement, yields on various maturities of government bonds fell by 3-5 basis points, interpreted as a signal of policy easing [6][7]. - The bond purchase operations can inject long-term funds into the banking system, potentially reducing the probability of an RRR cut in the near term. However, if the scale of bond purchases is insufficient, an RRR cut may still be considered [7]. - The bond purchases directly support government bond issuance, lowering financing costs and enhancing the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. This also strengthens the pricing benchmark role of the government bond yield curve, aiding financial institutions in improving their market-making capabilities [7]. - The resumption of government bond operations highlights the PBOC's flexible adjustment strategy, responding to policy coordination needs and instilling confidence in the market. The current bond market has improved safety margins, but the potential for trend opportunities will depend on the alignment of incremental policies and economic data [7].

习近平：让中美关系这艘大船平稳前行 当地时间10月30日上午，国家主席习近平在釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤。 习近平指出，特朗普总统热心推动地区热点问题解决，中方也一直在以自己的方式就当前各种热点问题劝和促谈。当今世界还有很多难题， 中国和美国可以共同展现大国担当，携手多办一些有利于两国和世界的大事、实事、好事。 （新华社韩国釜山10月30日电） 来源丨新华社 编辑丨兰银帆 审核丨许晨辉 当地时间10月30日上午，国家主席习近平在釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤。 习近平指出，特朗普总统当选以来，我们3次通话，多次互致信函，保持密切联系，共同引领中美关系保持总体稳定。前几天，两国经贸团队 在吉隆坡举行了新一轮磋商，就解决各自当前的主要关切达成基本共识，也为我们今天的会晤提供了必要条件。中美两国国情不同，难免有 一些分歧，作为世界前两大经济体，时而也会有摩擦，这很正常。面对风浪和挑战，我和特朗普总统作为掌舵人，应当把握好方向、驾驭住 大局，让中美关系这艘大船平稳前行。 习近平：中美两国可以相互成就、共同繁荣 当地时间10月30日上午，国家主席习近平在釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤。 习近平强调，中国的发展振兴同特朗普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period for China's economic and social development, aiming to solidify the foundation for achieving socialist modernization and to provide strategic guidance for the next five years [3][4]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a pivotal phase in the historical process of achieving socialist modernization, serving as a bridge between past achievements and future goals [4][5]. Development Strategy - The plan focuses on consolidating foundations and achieving comprehensive progress, emphasizing the need to address foundational issues that impact development and security [5][6]. - It aims to achieve significant breakthroughs in high-quality development and strategic tasks related to Chinese-style modernization, moving steadily towards becoming a moderately developed country [5][7]. Global Perspective - The article highlights the need to navigate the complexities of a changing global landscape, characterized by unilateralism and protectionism, while also seizing opportunities for development [6][7]. - It calls for a proactive approach to international competition and cooperation, enhancing China's position in global industrial division and increasing its influence in international discourse [6][7]. Guiding Principles - The guiding principles for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include upholding the Party's leadership, prioritizing the people, promoting high-quality development, deepening reforms, balancing market efficiency with government intervention, and integrating development with security [10][11]. - These principles are interconnected and reflect a deepened understanding of development dynamics, emphasizing the importance of the Party's leadership in achieving national goals [10][11]. Practical Implementation - The article stresses the need for practical measures to implement the guiding principles across various sectors, focusing on breakthroughs that drive overall progress [11][12]. - It advocates for a new development pattern that emphasizes domestic circulation while maintaining international engagement, aiming to enhance the resilience and competitiveness of the economy [11][12]. Innovation and Productivity - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is highlighted as essential for developing new productive forces, with a focus on fostering a modern industrial system [12][13]. - The article underscores the importance of applying scientific advancements to traditional industries and promoting emerging sectors to drive economic growth [12][13]. Social Welfare and Equity - The plan aims to ensure common prosperity by addressing imbalances in development and enhancing public services, with a focus on improving living standards and expanding the middle-income group [13][14]. - It emphasizes the need for policies that promote equitable income distribution and enhance social welfare, particularly in education, healthcare, and employment [13][14]. Security and Development - The article discusses the necessity of integrating security considerations into development strategies, ensuring that economic growth is underpinned by a robust safety framework [14]. - It calls for a comprehensive approach to risk management, emphasizing the importance of maintaining stability while pursuing high-quality development [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025, following a previous cut in September. This decision reflects internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate was widely anticipated by the market, despite internal disagreements among officials regarding the extent of the cut [3]. - Two officials opposed the 25 basis point cut, with one advocating for a 50 basis point reduction to expedite policy easing [3]. - The Fed's internal divisions between hawkish and dovish perspectives are becoming more pronounced, indicating uncertainty in future rate cuts [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Recent indicators align with these trends [4]. - The latest data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September increased by 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's October policy statement did not provide guidance on the December monetary policy path, leaving uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [4]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests the possibility of three rate cuts within the year, with December potentially being the last opportunity for a cut [4]. - Following Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks, market expectations for a December rate cut diminished significantly [5].

文/ 中国人民大学深圳研究院专职研究员 邢洋 当前国际经济形势严峻复杂，保护主义和单边主义问题比较突 出。建设全国统一大市场，成为促进新发展格局形成的关键战略选择。建 设全国统一大市场需要从以下几个方面着手：塑造健康金融环境，助力全 国统一大市场建设不断完善；提升金融软硬件供给能力，牢筑成为统一大 市场稳定源、推进器；稳步推进金融内涵式发展，深入推进全国统一大市 场建设。 当前国际经济形势严峻复杂，保护主义和单边主义问题更加突出。全球冲突源和风险点增加，国际利益格局与国际政治秩序面临深度调整和转型。建设全 国统一大市场成为促进新发展格局形成的关键战略选择。《中共中央、国务院关于加快建设全国统一大市场的意见》（以下简称《意见》）是全面贯彻以 习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为核心，着眼全局，从战略层面做出的重大决策。 金融服务业扮演着参与者和推动者双重角色，在构建全国统一大市场进程中承担着关键支撑作用，兼具市场实践主体与制度创新引擎双重职能。如何科学 运用现代金融工具，着力推进金融体系深化改革与创新支持体系建设，是突破市场整合体制机制障碍的核心路径。其中，加强金融基础设施的系统化布局 与跨领域协同监管，对实现资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial innovation in the transformation of urban villages, emphasizing the need for a collaborative approach involving government, market, and local residents to achieve sustainable and high-quality urban development [4][6][18]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The Tsinghua University Wudaokou Financial Institute's Real Estate Financial Research Center held a seminar on October 25, focusing on financial innovations in urban village transformation [3][4]. - The seminar aimed to explore new mechanisms that stimulate government and market participation in urban village redevelopment, aligning with the principles of effective markets and proactive government [4][11]. Group 2: Key Challenges and Solutions - Urban villages face three main challenges: high demand but lack of models, insufficient funding, and the need for a clear governance structure [12]. - Experts suggested that addressing these challenges requires innovative financial tools, improved land use policies, and a clear delineation of responsibilities between government and property owners [12][13][16]. Group 3: Financial Innovation and Policy Recommendations - The report developed a systematic analysis framework for different transformation models and proposed a combination of differentiated financial tools and policy support [7][9]. - Recommendations include optimizing land systems, enhancing funding mechanisms, and clarifying government roles to create a sustainable financial ecosystem for urban governance [9][10]. Group 4: Expert Insights - Experts highlighted the importance of balancing costs and benefits in urban village transformation, suggesting that long-term financial strategies and market-oriented reforms are essential [14][17]. - The seminar concluded with a call for ongoing research to support the sustainable and high-quality development of urban villages, emphasizing the need for a multi-faceted approach involving various stakeholders [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of October, which is seen as a preventive measure to improve liquidity in the tech sector, although caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking due to "buy the expectation, sell the fact" behavior [1][2]. - The expected interest rate cut will bring the rate range down to 3.75% - 4.00%, with a total reduction of 75 basis points anticipated for the year [2]. - Four main reasons for the Fed's decision to cut rates include: a relatively weak job market with increased layoffs, easing inflation pressures as core CPI continues to decline, weakening economic momentum with a predicted -1.8% growth rate for Q3, and a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly in US-China relations [3]. Group 2 - The impact of the Fed's rate cut on the US capital markets includes short-term volatility in the stock market, but mid-term support for tech stocks due to improved liquidity, while value stocks in financial and industrial sectors are expected to show resilience [5]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to fall below 4.0%, with short-term rates being more certain, while long-term rates face limited downward space due to European fiscal expansion and expectations of Japanese rate hikes [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar is under pressure, benefiting non-US currencies, with the dollar index potentially dropping below 98, and the Chinese yuan expected to appreciate [7]. Group 3 - The Chinese market is expected to benefit from the Fed's rate cut, particularly in sectors like AI computing and semiconductors, with foreign capital inflows and liquidity easing [9]. - The yuan's exchange rate is likely to stabilize and rise due to a weaker dollar and narrowing US-China interest rate differentials, increasing foreign investment interest in yuan-denominated assets [9]. - Market participants are advised to closely monitor the Fed's rate decision and Powell's statements regarding December's policy for potential trading insights [9].