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汪下烟:中国支付的发展变革与未来展望|金融与科技
清华金融评论· 2025-10-26 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of payment systems, emphasizing that the next significant transformation will be driven by the integration of digital currencies and the digital world, with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) playing a crucial role in this change [3][4]. Payment Evolution - Payment is fundamentally the transfer of currency, closely linked to goods and exchange needs. Historically, payment began with physical currency exchanges, evolving through various stages influenced by economic development [4][5]. - The development of payment systems in China has seen significant changes, from ancient practices to modern mobile payment systems, positioning China at the forefront of global payment innovations [4][5]. Historical Context - The evolution of payment methods can be traced from early physical currencies to modern paper money, highlighting the importance of the separation of currency ownership and transfer through instruments like promissory notes [6][7]. - The emergence of money houses and banks in China facilitated significant changes in payment systems, allowing for remote transactions and the introduction of a notification and bookkeeping model [6][7][8]. Technological Advancements - The introduction of telegraphy marked a milestone in payment systems, enabling faster communication and transaction processing, which significantly improved the efficiency of remote payments [9][10]. - The second major transformation in payment systems is characterized by the digitization of bookkeeping and the rise of information technology, which has fundamentally altered both bookkeeping and notification methods [11].
管涛:国际储备货币体系加速多极化|国际
清华金融评论· 2025-10-26 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves, highlighting a trend towards a multipolar international reserve currency system, with the dollar's share dropping to a 30-year low of 56.32% as of the second quarter of this year [1][11]. Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share Dynamics - As of the end of Q2, the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell from 57.79% to 56.32%, a decrease of 1.47 percentage points, marking the 11th consecutive quarter below 60% [1]. - The decline in the dollar's share is attributed to a 7.1% depreciation of the dollar index during the same period, indicating a negative valuation effect [1][3]. - The IMF's article on the same day emphasized that the dollar's reserve share remained stable when adjusted for exchange rates, suggesting that the decline was primarily due to valuation losses rather than a fundamental shift in reserve preferences [3]. Group 2: Euro and Other Currencies - The euro's reserve share increased from 20% to 21.13%, a rise of 1.13 percentage points, but this was largely due to a 9% appreciation against the dollar, which masked a potential decline in its reserve share if exchange rates had remained stable [3][4]. - The article argues that the focus on exchange rate effects overlooks the positive impact of asset price revaluation on the dollar's reserve share [4]. Group 3: US Long-term Securities and Foreign Holdings - As of June, foreign official holdings of US long-term securities (excluding international organizations) amounted to $67,395 billion, closely aligning with the IMF's reported global dollar reserves of $67,733 billion [4]. - The TIC report indicates that foreign official investors held $38,191 billion in US Treasury securities, $5,078 billion in agency debt, $2,185 billion in corporate bonds, and $21,941 billion in US equities, with equities representing over 30% of total holdings [4]. Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Behavior - The US stock market experienced significant volatility, with a 4.8% decline in Q1 followed by an 11% rebound in Q2, impacting the valuation of US equities held by foreign officials [6]. - In Q1, foreign official holdings recorded a valuation loss of $197 billion, while Q2 saw a valuation gain of $2,152 billion, indicating the substantial influence of market fluctuations on reserve valuations [6][8]. - In Q2, net purchases of US long-term securities by foreign officials fell to $51 billion, a 94.4% decrease from the previous quarter, highlighting a shift in investment strategy towards equities and away from safer assets like US Treasuries [8]. Group 5: Trends in Global Reserve Currency System - The article notes a continuing trend towards the diversification of the international reserve currency system, often associated with "de-dollarization," which refers to reducing reliance on the dollar in international trade and finance [12][20]. - Despite the decline in the dollar's share, the article suggests that the dollar's dominance remains resilient, as evidenced by its continued high percentage in global foreign exchange transactions [21].
金融支持新质生产力发展的逻辑与路径|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-25 08:50
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing "new quality productivity" in China as a strategic support for enhancing core competitiveness, with financial support playing a crucial role in this development [2][4]. Financial Support for New Quality Productivity Development - Financial functions are evolving to better meet the needs of the real economy, facilitating a positive cycle between finance and the real economy [4]. - Financial services can act as intermediaries to connect current savings with future investments, particularly in technology research and development [4]. - The financial system can guide funds to the most efficient sectors, enhancing the allocation of production factors and supporting technological innovation [4]. - Financial tools can help mitigate risks associated with high-cost, long-cycle, and high-risk technological innovations [4]. Historical Perspective on Financial Development - Historical analysis shows that financial systems have historically supported productivity advancements, with financial innovation needing to adapt to different economic stages [5]. - The relationship between finance and productivity is reciprocal, where financial support enables productivity growth, which in turn generates returns for the financial sector [5]. Role of Financial Technology - Financial technology enhances the ability of financial services to support new quality productivity by breaking spatial and informational barriers [6]. - It broadens the coverage of financial services to technology-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises, driving innovation and high-quality development in the economy [6]. - Financial technology is crucial for banks' innovation financing, improving efficiency in customer marketing, transaction security, risk assessment, and intellectual property valuation [6]. Challenges in Financial Support for New Quality Productivity - Despite a relatively complete financial system, there are mismatches between the financial structure and the needs of new quality productivity development [8]. - Traditional bank credit products and service models are struggling to adapt to the innovation-driven economic model, as they are typically conservative and focused on short-term loans [9]. - Direct financing mechanisms for technology innovation enterprises need strengthening, as current capital market structures present barriers for small and medium-sized tech firms [10]. - The venture capital market is not fully developed, with a lack of diverse exit channels and a predominance of government-led funding, limiting support for technology innovation [11]. - Coverage of financial services for private enterprises, which are vital for technological innovation, remains insufficient, leading to unmet financing needs [12].
当前环境下银行业面临的三大挑战及应对策略|银行与保险
清华金融评论· 2025-10-25 08:50
Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is currently facing three major challenges: insufficient effective credit demand, increased risk prevention pressure, and sustainable profitability under pressure [5][6][8]. Group 1: Insufficient Effective Credit Demand - Effective credit demand is weak, evidenced by a decline in overall loan demand, with a cumulative increase of 12.31 trillion yuan in RMB loans from January to July 2025, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.07 trillion yuan [8][10]. - Corporate loans have increased overall, but medium to long-term corporate loans have seen a continuous year-on-year decline for eight consecutive quarters, with a cumulative increase of 6.91 trillion yuan from January to July 2025, down by 1.3 trillion yuan year-on-year [10][12]. - The trend of deleveraging in the household sector is evident, with household loans increasing by only 680.7 billion yuan, accounting for just 5.3% of new loans, a significant year-on-year decrease of 569.4 billion yuan [14][15]. - Bond financing is increasingly substituting loans, with local governments actively restructuring debt, issuing 2.11 trillion yuan in bonds in the first half of 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of 125% [15][16]. Group 2: Increased Risk Prevention Pressure - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the non-performing loan balance of commercial banks reached 3.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio from 1.50% to 1.49% [16][17]. - The pressure on provisions is significant, with the provision coverage ratio at 211.97% as of the end of the second quarter [17]. - Retail credit remains in a risk release cycle, with the non-performing loan ratio for retail loans among 23 A-share listed banks at 1.44%, a year-on-year increase of 21 basis points [18][20]. - Credit risk management pressure for corporate loans persists due to various factors, including the exit of platform companies and the clearing of the real estate market [18][19]. Group 3: Sustainable Profitability Under Pressure - The net interest margin has been continuously narrowing, with the net interest margin for commercial banks dropping to 1.42% in the first half of the year, down from 1.74% in the first quarter of 2023 [21][22]. - Non-interest income has also faced challenges, with an average year-on-year decline of 1.87% in the first quarter of 2025, influenced by market volatility [21][22]. - The decline in non-interest income is attributed to a significant drop in investment income and fair value changes, with a 3.18% year-on-year decrease in other non-interest income [21][22]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - The banking industry should increase credit investment in an orderly manner, focusing on priority areas and strengthening strategic cooperation with local enterprises [23][24]. - Continuous optimization of asset allocation is necessary to enhance comprehensive financial service capabilities, targeting high-quality assets and improving industry-specific service capabilities [27][28]. - Adjusting the liability structure and managing capital and credit risk costs are crucial, with strategies including deepening transaction banking services and enhancing credit risk management [28][29]. - There is a need for counter-cyclical policy adjustments to support the banking sector, including innovative monetary tools and fiscal policy support [29][30].
权威解读“十五五”,这场发布会透露哪些信号?|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-24 11:56
文/ 《清华金融评论》 周茗一 中共中央于1 0月2 4日上午1 0时举行新闻发布会,介绍和解读党的二十届 四中全会精神。会议介绍,此次全会最重要的成果,审议通过了中共中央 关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 , "十五五"时 期 , 既 要 乘 势 而 上 , 又 要 迎 难 而 上 , 充 分 发 挥 中 国 特 色 社 会 主 义 制 度 优 势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势,把各方 面优势转化为高质量发展的实际效能。 党的二十届四中全会最重要的成果,是审议通过了《建议》。《建议》共15个部分、61条、分为三大板块。第一板块是总论,关于"十五五"时期我国发展环 境的总体判断,主要阐述"十四五"时期我国发展取得的重大成就、抓好"十五五"时期经济社会发展的重大意义和总体要求。第二板块为分论,关于"十五 五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针,分领域部署"十五五"时期的战略任务和重大举措。第三板块 "十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标,关于主要部署坚持和 加强党中央集中统一领导、推进社会主义民主法治建设等任务。 "十五五"时期,既要乘势而上,又要迎难而上 中央财办分管日常工作的副 ...
并购重组政策迎来实质性优化,为深圳高质量发展注入新动能|政策与监管
清华金融评论· 2025-10-24 11:56
文/《清华金融评论》 杨曦 近期,"深市"并购重组板块关注度显著提升,这一趋势与政策面的持续推 动密切相关。自202 4年11月2 7日发布《深圳市推动并购重组高质量发展 行 动 方 案 ( 20 25- 20 27 年 ) ( 公 开 征 求 意 见 稿 ) 》 后 , 深 圳 市 于 2 025 年 10月22日正式印发该方案。作为中国经济改革的先锋,深圳此举旨在积 极响应国家关于发展新质生产力及证监会"并购六条"等政策导向,致力于 构建"科技-产业-金融"的高水平循环体系。 2025年10月22日,深圳市正式印发《深圳市推动并购重组高质量发展行动方案(2025-2027年)》(以下简称《行动方案》)。该方案由深圳市地方金融 管理局联合发改委、科技创新局、工信局、国资委等多部门共同推出,是在新"国九条"及证监会"并购六条"政策框架下的地方性深化与落实。《行动方 案》旨在通过优化制度环境、强化政策协同,充分激发并购重组市场活力,系统引导资本与产业资源向新质生产力领域集聚,是深圳响应国家资本市场高 质量发展战略的重要举措。 《行动方案》明确了多项可量化的发展目标,并从资产端、资金端、跨境资源配置、服务生态和风 ...
何立峰:加快构建中国特色现代金融体系,推动金融强国建设取得新的重大进展|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-24 07:31
金融系统学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神会议10月2 4日在京召开。中 共 中 央 政 治 局 委 员 、 中 央 金 融 委 员 会 办 公 室 主 任 何 立 峰 出 席 会 议 并 讲 话。 何立峰强调 : 时刻谨记金融工作的政治性、人民性,始终牢牢把握 防风险、强监管、促高质量发展工作主线,坚定不移走中国特色金融发展 之路,加快构建中国特色现代金融体系,推动金融强国建设取得新的重大 进展 。 金融系统学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神会议10月24日在京召开。中共中央政治局委员、中央金融委员会办公室主任何立峰出席会议并讲话。 他强调,金融系统要把学习宣传贯彻全会精神作为当前和今后一个时期的重大政治任务,迅速兴起学习热潮,分层分级、分期分批组织开展全覆 盖培训,推动全会精神在全系统入脑入心。要抓紧研究谋划"十五五"时期金融重点工作,准确把握"十五五"时期金融工作的主要目标和面临的形 势任务,持续深入贯彻落实好中央金融工作会议精神特别是习近平总书记关于做好金融工作的系列重要讲话精神,时刻谨记金融工作的政治性、 人民性,始终牢牢把握防风险、强监管、促高质量发展工作主线,坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路,加快构建中国 ...
外汇局最新发声!|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-24 04:56
Core Viewpoint - The National Foreign Exchange Administration aims to enhance the foreign exchange management system in Shanghai, focusing on making it more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent to support the city's development as an international financial center [3][5]. Group 1: Financial Market Opening - The administration has been steadily expanding financial market openness, enhancing the interconnectivity of domestic and foreign financial markets, and improving the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, which has increased foreign investment attractiveness [3][4]. - China's bond and stock markets rank second globally, with foreign holdings of RMB financial assets exceeding 10 trillion RMB, significantly boosting Shanghai's international competitiveness [3][4]. Group 2: Cross-Border Trade and Investment Policies - A series of innovative cross-border trade and investment facilitation policies have been introduced, particularly in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and Lingang New Area, establishing a replicable "Shanghai experience" [4][6]. - The administration supports high-tech enterprises in Shanghai to access cross-border financing more easily, enhancing the efficiency of global fund management for companies [4]. Group 3: Headquarters Economy - Currently, 170 multinational companies have established funding pools in Shanghai, managing over 250 billion USD in external debt and over 80 billion USD in overseas loans, which has significantly improved global fund management efficiency [4]. Group 4: Enhancing Foreign Exchange Services - The administration is guiding banks in Shanghai to reform foreign exchange operations, resulting in a 50% reduction in processing time for foreign exchange transactions for high-quality clients [4][6]. - The focus is on balancing convenience and risk prevention through institutional reforms, continuous innovation, and technology empowerment [4][6]. Group 5: Future Considerations - Future plans include further expanding high-level institutional openness in the foreign exchange sector, promoting cross-border trade and investment facilitation, and ensuring that financial openness is underpinned by security measures [5][6]. - The administration emphasizes a dual approach of macro-prudential and micro-regulatory management to prevent risks across regions, markets, and borders, ensuring that effective risk prevention supports high-quality development and openness [6].
韩文秀介绍关于“十五五”时期我国经济社会发展指导方针|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-24 02:28
中国中共中央今天(24日)上午举行新闻发布会,介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩 文秀介绍 关于"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针 。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》强调,要全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想,围绕全面建成 社会主义现代化强国、实现第二个百年奋斗目标,以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴,统筹推进"五位一体"总体布局,协调推进"四 个全面"战略布局,完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念,加快构建新发展格局。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出"五个以""两个推动""一个确保"的要求,即: 坚持以经济建设为中 心 ,以推动高质量发展为主题,以改革创新为根本动力,以满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要为根本目的,以全面从严治党为根本保障,推 动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长,推动人的全面发展、全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐,确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性 进展。 《建议》指出,"十五五"时期经济社会发展必须遵循六项重大原则,即: 坚持党的全面领导、坚持人民至上、坚持高质量发展、坚持全面深 化改 ...
2026年度征订开启|延续阅读的力量
清华金融评论· 2025-10-23 09:17
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of deep reading and the accumulation of knowledge over time, suggesting that intellectual growth is a continuous journey rather than a one-time effort [1] - It highlights the role of Tsinghua Financial Review as a think tank and media platform focused on economic and financial policy interpretation and recommendations, contributing significantly to the high-quality development of the financial industry [2] Group 2 - Tsinghua Financial Review has published 143 issues and over 3000 articles since its inception in November 2013, showcasing its extensive engagement with over 3000 experts and scholars [2] - The platform collaborates closely with international economic and financial organizations, regulatory bodies, and academic institutions, enhancing its academic level and influence in the financial sector [2]