文/《清华金融评论》 周茗一 2 0 25年5月7日9时，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会。中国人民银行、 国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金 融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 央行发布3类10项措施 中国人民银行行长潘功胜介绍到， 今年以来各项宏观金融数据都比较不错，货币信贷呈现出"数量增加、价格下降、结构优化"的运行特 征。一季度末，社会融资规模同比增长8.4%、贷款同比增长7.4%（在贷款数据中，如果把地方专项债 置换地方融资平台贷款的影响进行还原，贷款同比增速将超过8%），广义货币供应量（M2）保持在 7%左右平稳增长，明显高于名义经济增速。同时，社会融资成本保持低位，普惠小微、制造业中长 期、科技型中小企业等贷款增速均快于全部贷款增速，信贷结构进一步优化。 从金融市场看，一季度表现良好。股市运行总体平稳，交易较为活跃，上证指数保持在3300点左右。债 券市场在经济信心提升的带动下自我校正。在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率较去年末小幅升值1%左右， 跨境资本流动相对均衡。 4月份以来，尽管面临比较大的外部冲击，国内金融体系仍然保持稳健，金融市场展现出较强韧性。上 证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a combination of macroeconomic, industry, and reform policies to stabilize growth in the face of persistent downward pressure on China's economy [1][4][10]. Macroeconomic Policies - Macroeconomic policies, including monetary and fiscal measures, are essential for counter-cyclical adjustments during economic downturns. The focus should be on monetary easing and fiscal expansion to stimulate growth [4][10]. - Continuous reliance on macroeconomic policies over extended periods is unsustainable, highlighting the need for a balanced approach [4][10]. Industry Policies - Industry policies are crucial as certain sectors lose competitiveness due to rising costs and changing market conditions. This necessitates the entry of emerging industries to support economic growth [4][5]. - The real estate sector's ongoing decline poses significant challenges for overall economic stability, as it heavily influences both investment and consumption [5][7]. - There is a need to create a conducive environment for emerging industries while stabilizing critical sectors like real estate in the short term [7][8]. Reform Policies - Reform policies are vital for improving the business environment as China transitions from an input-driven growth model to an innovation-driven one. This includes enhancing resource allocation efficiency and boosting the confidence of private enterprises [8][10]. - Private enterprises play a significant role in driving innovation and economic growth, necessitating the effective implementation of policies that support them [8][10]. Current Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that the current policy response should be proactive, considering potential economic downturns. It highlights the importance of preparing for risks and adjusting policies based on economic performance [10][11]. - The recent increase in U.S. tariffs poses challenges for Chinese exports, necessitating decisive macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand [12][13]. - Targeted measures should be designed to assist industries and workers directly affected by external shocks, such as tariffs, to mitigate their impact on the economy [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - China is transitioning to a high-income stage, with significant potential for consumption growth as the economic environment and consumer characteristics evolve. It is essential to effectively implement the decisions of the central government to stimulate consumption and improve livelihoods, thereby creating a virtuous cycle of economic development and social welfare [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Growth Potential - Resident consumption in China has substantial growth potential, driven by changes in social and economic conditions [2]. - International experiences indicate that as countries transition to high-income status, there is typically a deceleration in consumption growth, but new growth drivers emerge. For instance, in the five years before reaching high-income status, OECD countries saw an average decline of 1.7 percentage points in consumption growth [3]. - The increase in economic development and urbanization is expected to drive service consumption growth, with service consumption's income elasticity being high. As income levels rise, the focus of consumer spending shifts from goods to services [3][4]. Group 2: Urbanization and Service Consumption - Urbanization leads to population concentration and industrial integration, which stimulates demand for services such as education, healthcare, and entertainment. The service consumption share is positively correlated with urbanization rates [4]. - In 2024, China's urbanization rate is projected to be 67%, still 9 percentage points lower than the average of similar high-income countries, indicating significant room for growth in service consumption [4]. Group 3: Diverse Consumer Preferences - There is a clear trend of consumption differentiation among various income, age, and regional groups, with digital technology enabling diverse consumer needs [4][6]. - Over 50% of lower-income groups allocate most of their income to daily necessities, while nearly 30% of higher-income groups are shifting towards development and enjoyment-oriented consumption [6]. - Different generational preferences are evident, with younger consumers valuing social attributes and experiences, while older consumers focus on practicality and essential goods [7]. Group 4: Quality and Value in Consumption - A significant portion of consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness, with over half indicating that price-performance ratio is their main concern when shopping [8]. - The demand for high-quality, cost-effective products is expected to grow, similar to trends observed in Japan during the 1990s, where consumers favored value-for-money products [8]. Group 5: Service Demand and Family Structure Changes - The trend towards smaller family units is increasing the demand for outsourced family services, such as elder care and childcare. The average household size in China has decreased from 3.1 to 2.62 persons per household from 2010 to 2020 [9]. - The market for household services reached approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in 2023, with an annual growth rate of about 20% from 2015 to 2023, indicating a strong demand for marketized services [9]. Group 6: Challenges in Consumption Growth - There is a growing pressure on residents' consumption capacity, with the nominal growth rate of per capita disposable income in 2024 projected at 5.3%, a decline of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2019 [13]. - The supply and demand mismatch in the service sector needs to be addressed, as the service industry is lagging in development compared to high-income economies, with insufficient supply and quality issues in education, healthcare, and other sectors [14]. - Consumer expectations regarding product quality are not being met, with a significant number of complaints related to product quality and service issues, particularly in the elderly consumer market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the importance of strengthening the regional financial safety net and enhancing the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) mechanism to address rising economic and financial risks in the 10+3 region due to unilateralism and global uncertainties [4][6]. Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - The 10+3 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting resulted in a consensus to introduce a rapid financing tool funded by freely usable currencies like the Renminbi, expanding the resources available under the Chiang Mai Initiative [2][4]. - The meeting also laid a solid foundation for improving the capital contribution scheme of the Chiang Mai Initiative based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) model, which is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of the initiative and maintaining regional stability [6]. Group 2: Regional Cooperation - Pan Gongsheng called for regional countries to unite in response to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the need for coordinated macroeconomic policies among the 10+3 nations [7][8]. - Bilateral discussions were held with finance ministers and central bank governors from Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia to exchange views on the global uncertainties affecting their economies [8].

热点 聚焦 蓝佛安：财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱 01 5月1日出版的最新一期《求是》杂志，刊发财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安的署名文 章《更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践》，传递出积极财政政策设计的丰富 内容和实施重点。蓝佛安表示，财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱。新时代以来， 面对错综复杂的国内外发展环境，习近平总书记高度重视财政工作，为财政工作定 调指向，亲自决策、亲自部署一系列重大财政政策，有力促进了经济稳定运行，维 护了社会大局稳定。新时代我国财政政策的设计与实践，是习近平经济思想在财政 领域的生动体现。在财政政策实践中，我们深刻体会到，坚持以习近平经济思想为 指引，坚决贯彻落实好党中央决策部署，我国经济发展就没有迈不过去的坎、闯不 过去的关，必须加力实施更加积极的财政政策，推动中国经济巨轮破浪前行。 《清华金融评论》观察 蓝佛安部长强调"财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱"，这一表态体现了以下核心内涵 和政策方向：一是财政的全局性作用。财政不仅是经济调控工具，更是国家治理体系 的关键。此外财政是应对复杂挑战的"压舱石"。二是当前政策发力重点。财政政策可 提振民生与消费。财政可助力风险防范与改革深化。三 ...

全球资产配置：高波动下的范式变更 文/ 国新国际投资有限公司原 首席投资官 黄国波 高度不确定性是当今世界经济金融形势的主题。近年来，中美博弈、新冠疫情、俄乌冲突等事件不 断加深这一不确定性。进入2025年，特朗普2.0时代关税政策的重启与反复、地缘政治风险的恶化叠 加各国宏观经济波动性的加剧，同时影响着全球各大类资产的收益及风险特征。 在过去数十年里，全球化和"美国例外论"给美元、美股、美债创造了奇迹。而本轮由美国特朗普政 府重启的关税政策，不仅导致美国信用尽失，也可能带来全球化的逆转和"美国例外论"的崩溃。受 此影响，美国股市的全球吸金能力，正遭遇美国去全球化的逆风。与此同时，全球经济和货币体系 遭受美国无理关税的冲击后，正在以区域化和去美元化反噬美国。而美国的潜在危机正在被美国政 府自身的霸凌行径和无理高关税激发。在这种大趋势下，全球过去几十年来形成的在资产配置中高 配美国的格局，未来必然会形成逐步去美国化、美元化的趋势。作为全球资产配置的一个重要金融 产品——美债，其自身所面临的风险正逐步加大。 数据显示，截至2025年4月，美国联邦债务总额约为36万亿美元，占全球GDP的约35%，美国人均 负债超1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant issue of insufficient consumption in China, highlighting that household consumption, final consumption, and service consumption as a percentage of GDP are notably lower compared to OECD countries, with a gap of approximately 25% to 33% [3][4][5]. Group 1: Structural Bias in Consumption - China's consumption deficit is characterized as a "structural bias," with actual final consumption as a percentage of GDP being about 20 percentage points lower than the global average [5][6]. - Four main reasons for this structural bias are identified: low overall level of basic public services, lagging urbanization quality, significant income disparity, and the characteristics of the government balance sheet [5][6][7]. Group 2: Causes of Insufficient Consumption - The low level of basic public services, particularly in education, healthcare, and social security, restricts the growth of development-oriented consumption [6][7]. - Urbanization in China is at approximately 67%, which is lower than the 70%-80% seen in OECD countries at similar development stages, impacting service consumption levels [6][7]. - Income inequality, with a Gini coefficient generally above 0.45, limits the consumption capacity of lower-income groups, while the middle-income group is not large enough to drive demand [6][7]. - The government balance sheet shows a high proportion of government wealth compared to total societal wealth, which affects consumption rates negatively [7]. Group 3: Identifying Key Issues in Consumption - The article stresses the need to focus on service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, housing, social security, and pensions, as the main areas of insufficient consumption [10]. - The urban-rural divide is highlighted, with rural residents facing the most significant consumption gaps, particularly among migrant workers [10][11]. - Structural reforms aimed at urbanization and rural integration are necessary to address these consumption issues [10][11]. Group 4: Addressing Consumption Deficits - The article suggests that addressing consumption deficits requires distinguishing between root causes and derived issues, emphasizing the need to focus on the structural underrepresentation of consumption in terminal demand [12][13]. - It argues for a shift in policy focus from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth, which is essential for sustainable economic development [12][13]. Group 5: Recommendations for Pension Reform - The article proposes reforms to rural residents' pension systems as a short-term measure to boost consumption, suggesting the allocation of stimulus funds to increase pension payouts significantly [16][17]. - It discusses the potential for reallocating state-owned capital to enhance pension funds, which could double or even triple pension levels, thereby increasing consumption capacity among low-income groups [17][18]. - The goal is to raise rural pension levels to around 600-1000 yuan over five years, which could lead to substantial increases in direct consumption and overall GDP growth [19][20].

文/能源基金会低碳转型项目主任、中国气候联合参与平台专家委员会委员 杜譞 ，复旦大学国际金融学院硕士研究生 嵇舟玥 能源低碳转型中的结构性过剩困局，折射出传统发展模式与新型能源体系 之间的深层矛盾。本文通过构建偏好—制度—技术三维动力机制框架，揭 示结构性产能过剩的本质是需求侧动力缺失、供给侧激励扭曲与技术演进 路径依赖的嵌套性失灵。破解这一困局须摒弃单维突破的线性思维，转向 构建三维协同的破局路径。 能源转型的双重效用与现实困局 能源转型效用的经济—社会双维价值 能源低碳转型不仅是应对气候变化的必由之路，更是推动经济高质量发展、提升社会福利的战略选择。 2025年政府工作报告明确提出"协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长，加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型"，标志着 我国能源转型已从政策倡导进入全面深化阶段。当前，非化石能源发电量占比已接近40%，全国碳排放 权交易市场活跃度提升，首批碳达峰试点建设启动，这些进展为下一阶段能源转型奠定了基础。 全面加快能源低碳转型具有经济—社会双维价值。从经济效率维度看，能源低碳转型对经济增长有显著 的拉动效应。一方面绿色投资和消费需求直接拉动经济增长；另一方面绿色技术迭代推动全要素生产率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the implications of Trump's tariff war on the global economy, particularly focusing on the strategies and responses of various economic entities, including China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as the broader international context [2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Psychological Bottom Line - Trump's key demands in the tariff negotiations include a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, protective tariffs on key industries like automobiles, and specific measures targeting China, Canada, and Mexico [5][6][8]. - The 10% baseline tariff is seen as a potential concession point for Trump, aimed at preventing trade loopholes and increasing fiscal revenue [6]. - Protective tariffs on industries such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles are intended to limit competition and protect American jobs, with tariffs already set at 25% for steel and aluminum [7]. Group 2: Trump's Game Strategy - The U.S. holds a strategic advantage in the tariff war due to its position as the largest global demand-side economy, allowing it to dictate terms to other economies [10]. - Trump's unpredictable behavior in tariff announcements serves to increase the decision-making costs for opponents, maintaining strategic flexibility [11]. - The U.S. is shifting from multilateral frameworks like the WTO to bilateral negotiations, using tariffs as leverage to reshape trade relationships [10]. Group 3: China's Response - China has demonstrated a strong and rapid response to U.S. tariffs, indicating both the necessity and capability to counteract U.S. measures [15][16]. - The trade conflict is characterized as a repeated prisoner's dilemma, where mutual cooperation is beneficial, but unilateral concessions would disadvantage China [15]. - China's economic resilience and strategic reforms are expected to mitigate the impacts of the tariff war, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency [18]. Group 4: Responses from Other Economies - Canada has taken a firm stance against U.S. tariffs, leveraging its economic ties with the U.S. to push back effectively, while Mexico has shown a more passive response due to its dependency on the U.S. [22][23]. - Other economies like the EU, Japan, and India have exhibited a tendency to negotiate rather than retaliate, reflecting their reliance on the U.S. and a lack of unified response strategies [25][26]. - The EU's delayed response to U.S. tariffs highlights internal divisions and a lack of cohesive strategy compared to China's swift actions [26].

文/清华大学五道口金融学院与中国人民银行金融研究所联合培养博士研究生 雷 建 ，就读于南开大学金融学院金融学专业 许嘉琪 绿 色 能 源 转 型 是 下 一 个 中 国 经 济 " 超 额 " 增 长 的 重 要 发 力 点 。 在 中 国 " 双 碳 " 目 标 提 出 的 背 景 下 ， 如 何 充 分 利 用 政 府 财 政 与 市 场 资 金 的 双 重 主 动 性 ， 用 少 量 资 金 撬 动 巨 额投 资 ， 实 现绿 色能 源 转型 背 景 下 的 经 济 稳 定 增 长，提前至2040年实现碳中和，是本文探讨的主要话题。 全球能源转型与中国"双碳"目标的资金命题 供给结构失衡，绿色债券市场潜能待激发 近年来，中国绿色债券市场虽发展迅速，却呈现"国有主导、短期化、同质化"特征。2016—2024年数据 显示，绿色债券市场发行占比平均以金融债、资产支持证券为主，国有资本占比超40%，而民营企业发 行占比不及10%，市场化活力亟待释放。以2024年为例，国有资本在绿色债券发行中占比达69.88%，而 中小型企业因缺乏信用背书，融资渠道大大受限。此外，期限错配问题突出，3年期以下债券近九年平 均占比 ...